◢◤ e-SPORT ◢◤ picks ►►► (+54.99 units)

[magicmexican]

4Anchors choked as i expected. They do this a lot - start off really hot during a group stage, choke 1 important game in the playoffs and then its all downhill from there. They are really really bad at recovering emotionally after a loss.

Picked up some value on jjackji vs panic today, about 0.5 units. Bomber and DRG played like complete garbage and i was glad i fadem them, especially Bomber, he is way, WAY overhyped.

[magicmexican]

Took some value today from dota2 - Anchors vs Vega (map2). Its somewhat rare that i bet bigger than usual, but this spot was massive +EV due to the combination of factors :

(1) Anchors were leading map 1 but choked, they are a very emotional team, a break between the games was 10mins - not enough time for them to shake it off
(2) Line was open for longer than usual - i was able to see the picks/bans from both teams, and it was very clear that Anchors choked hard during the draft. I could not see them winning that game at all.





Djoker was added to the parlay just to avoid the 1btc bet limit @nitrogen

[magicmexican]

Dream over Zest @todays Proleague (opened near even money) - one of the best value bets this week so far.

Not much dota2 at the moment, have to wait until MarsTV league lines will be up.


edit: and Dream wins, was the biggest bet of the day for 1.2 units and +1,2 units gain. Still some value left @remaining proleague matches.

[magicmexican]

A bit annoying parlay miss :



Jaedong won map 1, and had a decent advantage during map 2 and i really thought it was over, but he managed to throw that by playing too fancy.

I did manage to hedge it for a small amount :





But still, a lot of potential value gone

[BitcoinDistributor]

You are up 54.99 BTC?

[magicmexican]

Lost 0.5 units on Dream<herO (easy value bet on dream, 2nd best TvP in the world against semi-slumping herO).

Won 2 units on Curious > Byul @3.05.

Dota2 Mars League going breakeven/slightly winning so far. Had bets on C9>Empire C9>EHOME that landed, but them losing to Newbee wiped almost all the dota profit.

Still a lot of matches left.

[magicmexican]

Curious winning 2-0 over herO shows that there is no such thing as a "safe bet". Public was lucky in that case that Pinnacle was not fast enough to put the line up. The amount of square money lost would be substantial.

A free tip that i can share today : do not pay attention to the casters and their predictions, they do not know what they are talking about.

[magicmexican]

Went for a free ~1btc profit today - Navi playing in China without ArtStyle with a standin who does not speak english - chances to win a game vs tryharding IG and LGD were close to 0%




Rest of the "normal" bets went pretty decent today also - won CDEC vs Navi, LGD vs IG, Secret vs Navi, Secret vs CDEC. Lost LGD vs Secret and Cdec vs IG (small)

[magicmexican]

Results for today :
 


+1,36 units

Lgd won map1 by a score like 22-3, but then Empire started to draft heavy push strats and somehow LGD failed to respond to it, drafting way too greedy.

Rain completely outplayed Innovation, it was weird to see a steam coming on Innovation for no reason at all, but i ll take the extra value.

[magicmexican]

Quite easy semi-live bet yesterday, after seeing how bad herO plays and how upset he was (almost to the point of crying)




I already had Dream ML, and decided to add more on map3 for the easy value

[magicmexican]

These were the picks for today :



Empire won, 2-1, after losing a 1st map badly, juts like they did against LGD. Looks like they are good at adjusting and figuring the chiniese teams so far.

C9 vs Secret just started, could be easily 2-0 Secret, they are in the top shape atm, and C9 looked very shaky against slumping IG. But odds were too good, and C9 can very well take a map off them.

[Wendigo]

Since you have mentioned it in a different thread, may I ask if you have been betting only e-sports professionally or moved to the scene later on and before that you have done other bets?

[Wendigo]

Jumping from playing poker to e-sports betting is pretty unusual dude. Personally I don't like watching pros playing video games because they are mostly kids lol Seems kinda unnatural to me. I have my fair share of success in ice hockey and football though I guess everyone should just bet on what they are most confident about 

[magicmexican]

Jumping from playing poker to e-sports betting is pretty unusual dude. Personally I don't like watching pros playing video games because they are mostly kids lol Seems kinda unnatural to me. I have my fair share of success in ice hockey and football though I guess everyone should just bet on what they are most confident about  

The average age of dota and starcraft pros is probably 22-23 at this point, i dont think it qualifies as "kids". 18 yo and below players are very rare, while 25 and up are very common, especially in Dota.

Also poker->betting transition is actually somewhat standard, both require similiar skillsets and both are gambling with the possible edge.

[Wendigo]

Yes I agree with that but when I used to play League the first pro players were in their teens like 15-16 y.o and now when I come to think of it it feels strange but anyways if you look at the new generation of tennis players they are too pretty young.
I found it peculiar to transition to e-sports bets specifically not betting in general. Anyways good luck with your bets mate I was just curious.

[magicmexican]

Oh well, C9 had a decent chance in game 2, but Secret are just best team in the world right now for sure.

Still +1.06 units.

If C9 wins VG in their match for the 3rd place it would mean zero chiniese teams @top3 in the chiniese tournament. Thats pretty crazy actually.

But to be fair, C9 always chokes extra hard against VG so they will probably go home in 4th place.

[magicmexican]

Starcraft GSL lines for Playoff quarterfinals are up, quite a bit of value there actually. I expect a lot of lines to sharpen up soon.

Current lines for dota 2 are not that interesting though, only a small bit of value for the upcoming MDL finals on the certain spread.

[picklewaba]

About ~5btc of potential value lost because LGD could not finish the job

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/4b57397RmY3K2VyUElQbHRZdVFDQmJOaFRwQT09/r/32901
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/c667ac4VStha3A4UEM0cWRlWEVCMVJucHhmZz09/r/32901

I have been following your picks for a while and am interested in a subscription. I was wondering if your parlays are like the ones above where you not only include dota and starcraft, but you include other sports? Or are those picks ones you keep to yourself?

Thanks

[magicmexican]

If you are interested that much in parlays i suggest you to pass on the subscription. I dont hit parlays often at all, there could be months of not hitting a single one.

Obviously i dont share every parlay i go for to subs, but its not because i keep them to myself, but because i dont think all of them are profitable/smart.

If someone would want me to share every parlay i do with him - i will gladly do that, but he should understand that none of these parlays might ever win, not after 10 parlays, not after 50, not after 500.

[picklewaba]

If you are interested that much in parlays i suggest you to pass on the subscription. I dont hit parlays often at all, there could be months of not hitting a single one.

Obviously i dont share every parlay i go for to subs, but its not because i keep them to myself, but because i dont think all of them are profitable/smart.

If someone would want me to share every parlay i do with him - i will gladly do that, but he should understand that none of these parlays might ever win, not after 10 parlays, not after 50, not after 500.

I am not really interested in parlays nor would I expect you to hand out loads of parlays and always hit them. I was just wondering if your picks are not only Dota and Starcraft.