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Author Topic: ◢◤ e-SPORT ◢◤ picks ►►► (+54.99 units)  (Read 60144 times)
magicmexican
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February 21, 2015, 01:59:05 PM
 #361

Feb 21 new picks (active pick #4)

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magicmexican
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February 21, 2015, 02:30:51 PM
 #362

Seems like we wont get our value from the Meepwnd-VP +0,5 spread because map 2 is most likely delayed to a very far away date. Thats incredibly annoying because they've won map 1 already.

A loss of 0,4 units just because they couldn't reschedule match within the next 2 days, pathetic.
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February 21, 2015, 03:01:39 PM
 #363

have any picks for todays Starcraft 2 - World Championship Series) ?
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February 21, 2015, 03:04:24 PM
 #364

also today at 1 is LOL Winterfox vs teamliquid with high limit of 2BTC bet, you have a pick? i really find this one interesting
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February 21, 2015, 03:26:31 PM
 #365

Dec 21 starcraft pick (active pick #5)

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February 21, 2015, 03:27:47 PM
 #366

have any picks for todays Starcraft 2 - World Championship Series) ?

I just posted a starcraft WCS pick for today (active pick #5), the rest of the WCS picks for other dates are under active picks #1


Just look at first page of the thread for the active picks, it looks like this :

Active picks :  [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]

    (how to "read" picks)
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February 21, 2015, 03:39:28 PM
 #367

Dec 21 starcraft pick (active pick #5)



going to fade you on this pick, can you give some insight on this pick? seems Forgg is highly favored on all the sites ive looked at, im asking because i always like to hear peoples opinions on their picks.
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February 21, 2015, 04:01:36 PM
 #368

Putting the stats output aside, forGG is simply overrated here. The current line is strongly based on his Dreamhack win. However, his performance aftwards has been very mediocre (as it often happens with players being overwhelmed by a big win and being lazy on the practice). He almost managed to lose bo5 against Marinelord in his best matchup, and even in the games he'd won he looked very questinable.

He is far from a being a top level korean at the moment, being a member of a weak foreign team without access to the good practice partners and a tight schedule of a professional teamhouse like other top koreans have.

In addition to that, being a somewhat famous streamer, he is a public favorite going into most of his matches, which disturbs the line towards him even further. From a purely analytical side Sen is +300 dog here at worst, and most likely even closer to +250-270.

Sen is far from being great, but his ZvT is his best matchup, and his overall shape is enough to justify a value bet here for these odds.
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February 21, 2015, 06:08:46 PM
 #369

Sen vs Forgg coming up. i did the max bet on nitrogen for this match, lets see
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February 21, 2015, 06:48:34 PM
 #370

took a big risk on that one, oh well. sen 0 : forgg 2
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February 21, 2015, 06:58:45 PM
 #371

I could be wrong, but it seems you might have some sort of addiction problem with these weird urges of "taking big risks" and stuff.

I only said that i weight Sens chances to win as 25-27%, compared to 23% offered by the bookies, so its quite obvious i still expect it to be a loss more than 70% of the time.
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February 21, 2015, 07:16:32 PM
 #372

Results (pick #5)

0W-1L   -0.6 units

Total: 256W-224L   +32.37 units





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February 21, 2015, 07:36:16 PM
 #373

also today at 1 is LOL Winterfox vs teamliquid with high limit of 2BTC bet, you have a pick? i really find this one interesting

My knowledge of LoL is very limited and there is no way i am capable of +ev picks in that game, i know my limits.

dont even bother with LoL, i used to play it and Riot have made the game total baby mode in the last year, its so easy to come back its ridiculous and inconsistent. skill isnt as a big factor in it anymore
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February 21, 2015, 07:43:01 PM
 #374

I could be wrong, but it seems you might have some sort of addiction problem with these weird urges of "taking big risks" and stuff.

I only said that i weight Sens chances to win as 25-27%, compared to 23% offered by the bookies, so its quite obvious i still expect it to be a loss more than 70% of the time.

i dont bet more than i can afford to lose, i was an early adopter and have some mined BTC, so its all fun and games.
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February 21, 2015, 07:43:46 PM
 #375

also today at 1 is LOL Winterfox vs teamliquid with high limit of 2BTC bet, you have a pick? i really find this one interesting

My knowledge of LoL is very limited and there is no way i am capable of +ev picks in that game, i know my limits.

dont even bother with LoL, i used to play it and Riot have made the game total baby mode in the last year, its so easy to come back its ridiculous and inconsistent. skill isnt as a big factor in it anymore

Never said i will, i find the game very bland. I've been only playing it for a short time during closed beta. I see no reason to follow or play it over Dota. The skill ceiling is just way too low.
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February 21, 2015, 10:09:13 PM
 #376

any thoughts on ehug v EG?
magicmexican
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February 21, 2015, 10:28:00 PM
 #377

any thoughts on ehug v EG?

Already posted, see active pick #4
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February 22, 2015, 12:53:46 AM
 #378

Results (pick #3)

2W-2L   +1.14 units

Total: 258W-226L   +33.51 units

magicmexican
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February 22, 2015, 01:01:30 AM
 #379

eHug playing pretty well, no matter what the results will be, looks like i was on the right side of the odds for sure.
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February 22, 2015, 01:55:29 AM
 #380

Results (pick #4)

1W-4L   -1.28 units

Total: 259W-230L   +32.23 units




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