◢◤ e-SPORT ◢◤ picks ►►► (+54.99 units)

[magicmexican]

Best yesterday's picks was Hyun ML @4.4 against Dark, which was boarderline retarded.

Yes, Dark is a better player, plus his current form is/was incredible. But we are talking about 2 koreans playing ZvZ, and current ZvZ meta is incredibly coinflip'y. Its the absolute best matchup to back the underdog currently.

Lost Dear -1.5 which sucked, somehow he has this tendancy to fall apart due to the nerves in the first games, and then slowly grind his comeback.

[1714639697]

1714639697

[1714639697]

1714639697

[Roshiba]

Some easy parlays today, nothing big :

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/54448f7U0xmaEkvOUdGdmxvd2NSVmhJblRWdz09
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/ca90300clRnMDJpSEYzUFhmN01sNHU0UTlDQT09
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/fd88fcbcDRHazczYkNHM0R3cEdNM3gyVHl6QT09

MMA should've covered the -1.5 too, but my god, the throws were real.

Both soO and Life losing map1 to win next 3 in a row was cool though.

wow very nice result
congrats sir

[Wendigo]

Hey dude I think you post the most impressive parlays here on the forum. Admirable work and well worth the time I am sure you have put in this 

[AbengBTC]

sup akaGiiii

[Wendigo]

Hey do you log every bet on a spreadsheet or keep the records using a software? I have been looking out for an Excel alternative.

[magicmexican]

Hey do you log every bet on a spreadsheet or keep the records using a software? I have been looking out for an Excel alternative.

I have a googlesheet with the results of subscription bets and my own sheet with overall results with technical specifics and stuff like that.  I might look into alternative at some point, but right now its enough, plus i am focusing on more important stuff atm.

[magicmexican]

JinAir got owned 0-3 today in a ProLeague while being heavy favs. I am not really sure what they are doing, i can understand fielding Check if you are confident in your other players, but Maru is suddenly in a TvT slump, and Trap is horrible PvT

Did not really lose anything except a couple of small parlays though.

By the way, for anyone interested in the upcoming TI5 - there is some value on taking futures on Secret for the outright main event winner. Too bad that these lines are only availible on pinnacle, as far as i know.

[romano1]

Looks interesting thread, bookmarked , do u provide premium picks too ?

[Wendigo]

What an impressive parlay betslip wow. Did you hedge the last bet on Nitrogensports too or used another sportsbook?

[magicmexican]

A couple of interesting results.

Went +0,4 units for today's GSL, winning Bomber/Hurricane, and losing on Sacri vs Cure.

Won +3,3 units yesterday @Dota2 from Burden United vs YS, the odds did not make any sense, it was a complete steal. If was even considering firing more than 1.5 units on it, but decided not to just because that tournament is a complete disaster with teams getting Ddosed very often.

(Observed the ridiculous dota match yesterday, where it was very obvious that the losing team did Ddos their opponents, and yet the admin made the worst call i've seen and forced the winning team to play 3v5. A complete garbage call and a joke of a tournament)

Ran into a Chiniese dota matchfixing today and lost 1.4 units. The line movement and the match itself gave it away, but nitrogen already graded it. I am trying to contact pinnacle and get the info if they voided the match or not.

Overall made near 3 units in 3 days. Not bad, but by running a little better and avoiding the matchfixing it would be atleast 6 units of profit. Oh well, the grind continues.

[magicmexican]

Not much of a day, lost some small amount on Newbee.Young vs TongFu, the secured the +1.5 spread by 95% but suddenly did a ridicolous throw, even their opponents were somewhat shocked. I seriosly laughed out loud while watching, could not even be mad about how retarded it was.

Lost half a unit on Maru vs Zest, beating the closing line by quite a lot, but it seems that Maru is really slumping now, perphaps his wrist issues are becoming worse. Quite unfortunate really, because he is/was one of the best players in the world.

Have some parlays pending (perphaps even a bit too much, but hey, its for the TI5 - so if there is a time to up your variance - its now)

[magicmexican]

+1.1 units from Zest beating Patience with -1.5 handicap.

Was super happy with taking -1.5 for 1.65 odds, because it was a steal, the line closed @1.35 or something like that. Zest is just that much better.

Taking the good lines at the opener is incredibly important, being slow in this case would cost around 0.4 units. Someone might think its not much, but these bets add up very very quickly, and after 100 picks you would see a 40 unit difference

[Wendigo]

Is the skill gap between the players so great that -1.5 handicap is not even money? I don't follow esports but keep coming here to read about your wrap-ups cause it's kinda interesting.

[magicmexican]

Is the skill gap between the players so great that -1.5 handicap is not even money? I don't follow esports but keep coming here to read about your wrap-ups cause it's kinda interesting.

In this case, yes. The skill gap between player was pretty huge, plus it was a bo5 match, not a bo3, which makes the -1,5 spread way more "safe". Both matches ended 3-0, and i was regretting not putting more on the -2.5 spread.

In general i dont like -2,5 spreads in starcraft for a couple of reasons that no one really will be interested in, so i wont go into a too much of a detail, but in this case the value on -2.5 was really good, and -1.5 was a steal, especially at openers. The price on those usually drops pretty damn heavily towards the start of the match.

Anyway, getting ready for the International.

I encourage everyone to watch it, even if you've never watched dota2 before. This is the biggest event not only of this year, but for all esports in general. Not often the 1st place will guarantee a team 6 million dollars.

[Joca97]

Is the skill gap between the players so great that -1.5 handicap is not even money? I don't follow esports but keep coming here to read about your wrap-ups cause it's kinda interesting.

In this case, yes. The skill gap between player was pretty huge, plus it was a bo5 match, not a bo3, which makes the -1,5 spread way more "safe". Both matches ended 3-0, and i was regretting not putting more on the -2.5 spread.

In general i dont like -2,5 spreads in starcraft for a couple of reasons that no one really will be interested in, so i wont go into a too much of a detail, but in this case the value on -2.5 was really good, and -1.5 was a steal, especially at openers. The price on those usually drops pretty damn heavily towards the start of the match.

Anyway, getting ready for the International.

I encourage everyone to watch it, even if you've never watched dota2 before. This is the biggest event not only of this year, but for all esports in general. Not often the 1st place will guarantee a team 6 million dollars.

Yeah i heard about this tournament,will you be making any bets,because im intrested in betting couple of btc on some picks
you are a good bettor for this games

[magicmexican]

Up almost 7 units for today just from 2 matches.

+5 units from taking the 6.3 odds underdog who was not that much of a dog in reality. I just love when delusional crowd skewes the odds so much based on the fact that 1 team is somewhat famous. A lot of people went all-in, thinking that its a "safe" bet (84%), and then these people proceed to spam the losing team's facebook and twitter with angry messages and death threats, pretty standard.



Overall, very good couple of days so far.

[magicmexican]

No action for the next 18 hours anywhere, waiting for the TI5 to start.

Opening matches will be CDEC vs Vega and MVP Phoenix vs Team Archon.

Lines are close to being sharp. I expect CDEC to win against Vega, but i think the price is not that good to fire anything substantial. Vega is not a bad team by any means, but 3 out 5 of their players dont have any LAN expirience and i think nerves will get the better of them.

Therefore, the -1,5 spread on CDEC would be a decent'ish bet for like 0,3 units or so, but not more

Same with taking Team Archon as the underdog against MVP Phoenix, a little bit of the edge there @2.84 ML

[magicmexican]

Well that was annoying, was super happy with both bets, especially on Archon, who were 1-1 and leading 10k gold @20minutes in a decider, which usually translates into a win 95% of the time by stats, but they did managed to choke, typical American dota.

CDEC completely outplayed Vega during map1 and relaxed too much, picking up super greedy draft @map2 and just got stomped by the very agressive Vega.

Losing that -1,5 spread sucked hard, but the map2 loss pushed their map3 odds towards 1.77 odds, and i made pretty big bet on CDEC, because map2 was just a semi-fluke. That map being played right now with CDEC having a lead, unless they will choke, it will be easy money.

[magicmexican]

Taking MVP Phoenix vs Vega in the decider @+300, they are definately dogs, but no more than +200, so there is a decent chunk of value in betting on them.

[magicmexican]

Taking MVP Phoenix vs Vega in the decider @+300, they are definately dogs, but no more than +200, so there is a decent chunk of value in betting on them.

Nice underdog win. Somewhat heartbreaking for Vega, but its their own fault for choking and drafting like crap in the 50k$ match. Not sure if they will disband or will stay together trying to improve, but i something tells me the first option is much more likely.