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Author Topic: ◢◤ e-SPORT ◢◤ picks ►►► (+54.99 units)  (Read 60144 times)
magicmexican
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January 15, 2015, 09:12:24 PM
 #141

Jan 16 picks








Only 4 picks so far. Things are starting to slow down for now.

Also, since the 'Gambling' section became pretty much unbearable with all these ponzi threads, i've started a blog several days ago.

 So if you dont want to look for this thread - you can find my picks here -> [BLOG]
(i will still keep posting picks in this thread though. Also the record there is obviously a little bit different, but not by much)
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magicmexican
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January 15, 2015, 11:04:38 PM
 #142

Jan 16 picks part 2

New lines came up :


magicmexican
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January 16, 2015, 07:24:18 PM
Last edit: January 19, 2015, 09:32:59 PM by magicmexican
 #143

Jan 16 Results


6W-2L   +4.769 units

Total:   129W-102L   +6.260 units

Pretty interesting day. I think the oddmakers were not the brightest this time, and made tons of mistakes with the odds @Dota2. The public also moved the lines into the wrong direction by betting on the "favorites", so that was a nice bonus. Some matches were a clear value bets, but Fire vs Hellraisers was a rare case of oddmakers misjudging the favorite and the underdog(giving a favorite +271 odds). I was even considering betting something like 3-5 units in that case, but decided to stay disciplined.

In the end  a perfect dota2 day. The 'underdogs' (who were not really dogs) did prevail.

Moving to Starcraft2 , Taeja losing to herO was not super unexpected, it was a razor-thin value bet. However, the Curious-Terminator loss was somewhat frustrating, because Curious had the game won, but choked by making a clear rookie mistake and ended up snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. This should've been another +1 unit profit, making it a +6.75 units day. But this happens too often to get mad about it.





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January 16, 2015, 09:25:08 PM
 #144

Jan 17 picks


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January 17, 2015, 02:24:44 AM
 #145

Seems like a couple of starcraft2 matches from Jan 16 got delayed and canceled(TY-Bomber, Yonghwa-Dream). Thats a little bit annoying, missing 2 value bets that had their lines moved quite a bit after i made the pick.

So at the moment there are no 'pending' bets, except my picks for Jan 17.
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January 17, 2015, 03:03:48 PM
 #146

Jan 19-20 Starcraft2 picks



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January 17, 2015, 06:37:13 PM
Last edit: January 19, 2015, 09:32:42 PM by magicmexican
 #147

Jan 17 results



1W-3L -0.831 units

Total:   130W-105L   +5.429 units

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January 18, 2015, 02:12:14 PM
Last edit: January 18, 2015, 03:00:41 PM by magicmexican
 #148

More picks for Jan19


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January 19, 2015, 12:39:52 PM
 #149

Picks for Jan 23




Also, the small update with the results is coming soon
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January 19, 2015, 12:44:29 PM
 #150

Quick pick for today



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January 19, 2015, 01:08:10 PM
Last edit: January 19, 2015, 09:32:24 PM by magicmexican
 #151

Results

2W-2L   +0.403 units

Total:   132W-107L   +5.832 units

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January 19, 2015, 04:02:35 PM
Last edit: January 19, 2015, 09:32:01 PM by magicmexican
 #152

Today's quick result


1W-0L +0.3435 units

Total: 133W-107L   +6.175 units

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January 19, 2015, 09:27:23 PM
Last edit: January 20, 2015, 05:03:11 PM by magicmexican
 #153

Jan 20 picks







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January 19, 2015, 10:10:10 PM
Last edit: January 20, 2015, 01:39:11 PM by magicmexican
 #154

By the way, after today's 9 picks, it will be exactly 1 month since i've started to post the picks. It's really just an arbitary number that people pay attention way too much in betting. However, it will be still nice to avoid breaking the streak of never having a losing month (as long as volume is meaningfull, of course).

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January 20, 2015, 01:41:49 AM
 #155

Interesting line movement.

Peculiar stuff - here is my pick from the Jan 17 (you can scroll up a bit and find it)



And this is how the line looks now -





Intriguing, isnt it? I still stand by my pick, and think its a ridiculously good of a value bet @these odds. There were no new results//rumours, or any new information to fuel this line movement at all, so to me it looks like someone thought bookmakers made a blunder and gave away very good odds on the "favorite". Usually i dont pay much attention to line movements, because over the long run it negates the time it was 'wrong', and one thing is certain - blindly following the movement wont make you money. And guessing which time is which is not a good investment of the time in this field, in my opinion.

In any case, this will be the match to pay attention to. Not particularly interested in the overall result, but more like how close it will be, and how exactly will it play out.
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January 20, 2015, 01:36:03 PM
Last edit: January 23, 2015, 12:59:21 PM by magicmexican
 #156

Jan 20 picks

Dota 2 - JoinDota League



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January 20, 2015, 06:41:59 PM
 #157

Results

3W-6L -2.757 units

Total: 136W-113L  +3.419 units






magicmexican
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January 21, 2015, 02:15:44 AM
 #158

Interesting line movement.

Peculiar stuff - here is my pick from the Jan 17 (you can scroll up a bit and find it)



And this is how the line looks now -





Intriguing, isnt it? I still stand by my pick, and think its a ridiculously good of a value bet @these odds. There were no new results//rumours, or any new information to fuel this line movement at all, so to me it looks like someone thought bookmakers made a blunder and gave away very good odds on the "favorite". Usually i dont pay much attention to line movements, because over the long run it negates the time it was 'wrong', and one thing is certain - blindly following the movement wont make you money. And guessing which time is which is not a good investment of the time in this field, in my opinion.

In any case, this will be the match to pay attention to. Not particularly interested in the overall result, but more like how close it will be, and how exactly will it play out.

He-he, seems the match was, indeed, fixed. The result was canceled by all the bookies.

-1L +0.45 units

Total:    +3.87 units
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January 21, 2015, 02:27:04 AM
Last edit: January 21, 2015, 03:29:52 AM by magicmexican
 #159

Jan 21 picks

Dota 2





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January 21, 2015, 12:49:12 PM
Last edit: January 23, 2015, 01:36:15 PM by magicmexican
 #160

New pick


Dota 2 - Esportal Dota 2 League


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