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magicmexican (OP)
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April 25, 2015, 01:35:22 PM
Last edit: April 25, 2015, 01:53:32 PM by magicmexican |
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"You Asked For Change, We Gave You Coins" -- casascius
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magicmexican (OP)
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April 25, 2015, 05:21:49 PM |
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Liking my spot @IG vs VG, take IG near +200 and now steam moved them to +150'ish.
Expecting series to go 2:1 most of the time, with IG looking way more impressive in this tournament so far.
Dissapointing that C9 came short and got 0-'2d, so close to beating VG in both games but barely not enough.
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magicmexican (OP)
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April 25, 2015, 07:11:58 PM |
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[Results]1W-4L -2.06 units Total: 523W-473L +48.68 units
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magicmexican (OP)
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April 25, 2015, 07:53:28 PM |
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There are 3 Starcraft-II tournaments at the moment @pinnacle, with NitroGen offering 0 of them. This is pretty damn sad.
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magicmexican (OP)
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April 25, 2015, 09:20:08 PM |
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Ig lost 1-2. Weird series with wins from both sides being huge stomps. Felt like each map was a coinflip, so taking ML +200 was decent move still.
Waiting for NitroGen to put up the WCS/GSL categories. If they wont - i will be pretty damn pissed, because i have like 15 picks to post, a lot of value there at the moment.
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magicmexican (OP)
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April 25, 2015, 09:52:27 PM |
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[Results]1W-1L -0.47 units Total: 524W-474L +48.21 units
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magicmexican (OP)
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April 25, 2015, 10:26:06 PM
Last edit: April 28, 2015, 08:12:52 PM by magicmexican |
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I dont want to hijack the threads of other 'tipsters' or whatever their are called, but here are the clues that should trigger your alarm bells when you see them in one of these threads :
1) A new accounts with names like "CrushYourBookie" "WinningBets420" "OwnageSoccerBets" etc
2) Claiming to be a winning bettor with a winrate straight up from some cheesy sport betting movie (Hi, i am a pro bettor for 10 years and i have a winrate of 85%)
3) Unnecessary often "reminders" about how good their picks are ("Lets make some easy money today!" "Make these picks into a parlay and buy yourself something nice!" "BLOWOUT Sunday picks, dont be afraid to bet BIG")
4) Asking you for money right off the bat, claiming to have "proven" record on the 3rd party website. Or changing their picks to "premium" after a small sample size. (Anyone can run hot for a short period)
5) Overusing parlays, or even worse - most picks being parlays
6) Using any kind of a "betting system" (almost always martingale) - "Hey, i cant see myself losing 5 bets in a row because i usually win"
7) Not operating in 'units'. Either just not mentioning it or just using broad definitions like "small, medium, big" - Not a sign of a scammer by any means, more like a sign of a rookie who bets according to "a feel".
Anyone who is serious about betting should know about unit sizing and kelly criterion. If anyone is just using a flat sizing (or just a feel based sizing) - he is still can be a longterm winner, but since he is most likely dont have anything remotely close to a model - he can turn into a loser very fast, because just memory based knowledge and "feel" is very rarely enough to beat the field in the longterm.
Plus any downswing will usually affect such bettor a greater deal than it should, questioning his confidence, since there is no real data to back up his picks.
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magicmexican (OP)
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April 26, 2015, 02:13:16 AM |
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[Results]2W-0L +1 unit Total: 526W-474L +49.21 units M5-BBC Unfortunately postponed to 48h+, which sucks because i think we wont be able to get them later for such good odds.
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magicmexican (OP)
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April 26, 2015, 03:06:43 PM |
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Day of big throws, C9 chokes with like 20k gold lead and denies a ~2 units gain.
However, DK throws even a bigger lead and secures the -1.5 for HGT.
Still a ton of picks pending, will update a lot of results today after they all will be finished.
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magicmexican (OP)
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April 26, 2015, 03:21:05 PM |
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[Results]3W-0L +1.07 units Total: 529W-474L +50.28 units 
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magicmexican (OP)
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April 26, 2015, 03:32:48 PM
Last edit: April 26, 2015, 06:32:03 PM by magicmexican |
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[Results]2W-2L -1.12 units Total: 531W-476L +49.16 units
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magicmexican (OP)
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April 26, 2015, 06:33:30 PM |
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[Results]1W-2L -0.63 units Total: 532W-478L +48.53 units
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magicmexican (OP)
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April 26, 2015, 06:38:05 PM
Last edit: April 27, 2015, 11:10:32 PM by magicmexican |
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[Picks]
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magicmexican (OP)
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April 26, 2015, 07:07:15 PM |
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[Results]1W-3L -1.39 units Total: 533W-481L +47.14 units 
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