Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.

[rjk]

I beg to disagree... They weren't random at all. They were pretty well targeted, I would say.

I am sorry, let me correct it to
"a row of insults aimed at the other side in a discussion"

Where else do you normally aim an insult?

[Vandroiy]

Okay, now the thread-flooding crew is here. It's just the bet thread. If you're looking for what's limiting user influx, it's called saturation.

I'm not even going to tell anyone to give up and default. Your choice, risk it if you wish. Hell if I care whether funds end up with the "early investors" or the great pirate, it's similarly insane.

It might be a problem though that Pirateat40's users don't know he hates them for taunting me, and I have no need to shut up after the bet. I'm not going to make a ruckus on my own, but will respond to attacks just like always, so if they keep doing it, it's his problem for using people who don't know what side they're on.

[imsaguy]

100% certain

Only a fool is 100% certain unless we are talking about death.

A bit late, but still worthy:

[rjk]

Okay, now the thread-flooding crew is here. It's just the bet thread. If you're looking for what's limiting user influx, it's called saturation.

Funny that you mentioned that the "thread flooding crew" had just arrived after my single post. I'll have you know that I am an army of one, and I bring along no sockpuppets to support my positions.

I'm not even going to tell you to give up and default. Your choice, risk it if you wish. Hell if I care whether funds end up with the "early investors" or the great pirate, it's similarly insane. In one case, I get the funky show for a while longer.

It might be a problem though that your users don't know you hate them for taunting me, and I have no need to shut up after the bet. I'm not going to make a ruckus on my own, but will respond to attacks just like always, so if they keep doing it, it's your problem for using people who don't know what side they're on.

Great!... except I think you have said that before and promptly forgotten about it. Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out.

[Raoul Duke]

Okay, now the thread-flooding crew is here. It's just the bet thread. If you're looking for what's limiting user influx, it's called saturation.

I'm not even going to tell anyone to give up and default. Your choice, risk it if you wish. Hell if I care whether funds end up with the "early investors" or the great pirate, it's similarly insane.

It might be a problem though that Pirateat40's users don't know he hates them for taunting me, and I have no need to shut up after the bet. I'm not going to make a ruckus on my own, but will respond to attacks just like always, so if they keep doing it, it's his problem for using people who don't know what side they're on.

Pirate never promised us any love, just 7%. Let him hate on us.

[Vandroiy]

rjk: actually I didn't think about you, the post just came in while I was typing mine. You... just post a lot, that's not the same as flooding at all. The problem is when the discussion loses structure, and it's more of an output war.

reeses... I dunno man. I was talking to Pirate or allies of his, about the saturation curve of deposits. You're interpreting strange things into my posts. Yes, I have the intention that if I turn out wrong, I will admit it and apologize. It must become clear soon enough; if it is a Ponzi, it probably won't saturate for long, won't shutdown orderly and finally, won't shrink much and won't run forever. If you just had some patience you could laugh at me after the fact -- in whatever future you are imagining.

[Vandroiy]

What are we even talking about by now?

And reeses, you're kind of creeping me out. Please save us the... uh... ways to clean your fundament. And no, I'm not lying, I'd have to knowingly do that.

Okay, I admit defeat. This thread has been successfully derailed. rjk is right, I'm only repeating myself anyway.

[Raoul Duke]

What are we even talking about by now?

And reeses, you're kind of creeping me out. Please save us the... uh... ways to clean your fundament. And no, I'm not lying, I'd have to knowingly do that.

Okay, I admit defeat. This thread has been successfully derailed. rjk is right, I'm only repeating myself anyway.

You didn't even start this thread, you just hijacked it with your bet. If anyone is guilty of derailing anything, that would be you...

[Vandroiy]

You didn't even start this thread, you just hijacked it with your bet. If anyone is guilty of derailing anything, that would be you...

That's true. I offered to split though, and nobody cared.

But native languages, drinks and ways to wipe your ass is a level up from that. And now it's become a meta-discussion... lol I can't fight this.

[Raoul Duke]

lol I can't fight this.

Too bad you only realised that after putting 5000 BTC on the line.

[Hecate]

Too bad you only realised that after putting 5000 BTC on the line.

I think he was talking about people flaming around happily and doubt it changes the outcome of the bet. Surely massive amounts of people believing in pirateat40 has an effect, but as long as you dont find exponentially more people to join your voyage into oblivion then the scheme will still die soon.

[Raoul Duke]

Too bad you only realised that after putting 5000 BTC on the line.

I think he was talking about people flaming around happily and doubt it changes the outcome of the bet. Surely massive amounts of people believing in pirateat40 has an effect, but as long as you dont find exponentially more people to join your voyage into oblivion then the scheme will still die soon.

Who the hell is trying to get more people to join "our voyage into oblivion"?

You and the other Russian dude did more of that than any of Pirate's current investors.

(OK, I will give that to you: those PPT bonds should've never existed)

[Jan]

Arghhh.... Don't ruin this thread with all this spam. I was actually enjoying the show with all them bets and everything until it turned into insult on insult.

[organofcorti]

Arghhh.... Don't ruin this thread with all this spam. I was actually enjoying the show with all them bets and everything until it turned into insult on insult.

Anyone mind if I change the thread name to the "Let's insult each other"?

[novusordo]

Arghhh.... Don't ruin this thread with all this spam. I was actually enjoying the show with all them bets and everything until it turned into insult on insult.

Anyone mind if I change the thread name to the "Let's insult each other"?

I propose an entirely new thread dedicated to insulting each other.

[Jouke]

It still is a Ponzi. Edit: did you guys notice the switch to final accretion mode leaking? It's a subtle post, and it's not by Mr. P.

No?

[Hecate]

Arghhh.... Don't ruin this thread with all this spam. I was actually enjoying the show with all them bets and everything until it turned into insult on insult.

I dont remember directly insulting anyone. I might have done some implications but the straight forward cursing and swearing came from the other side.

[Vandroiy]

It still is a Ponzi. Edit: did you guys notice the switch to final accretion mode leaking? It's a subtle post, and it's not by Mr. P.

No?

Apparently, there are no forced withdrawals for the new trust accounts. This probably means the cap on growth is off. I don't think that the non-trust accounts will play a big role, and really, I haven't heard about a lot of forced withdrawals with the old accounts anyway. Even before the flamewar, it rarely happened anymore. Maybe one here and there for the show, but nothing that tries to simulate big players' transactions coming and going -- you'd need them well in the five-digits to make a difference. The need for coins is growing faster and faster, and should soon be unlimited for all practical purposes.

You can't scale a high yield Ponzi down, at least not for long. The "No limits, same yields" approach is a sign of saturation. Shutdown time is normally around the time where recent average in- and outflow have been equal for a bit: the point of maximum deposits. That is assuming is behaves like a modern, and not the original Ponzi, which continued until it actually ran out of money. The latter would be strange, since Pirateat40 would not profit from it.

The primary hype was more than one month ago, and apart from the "is it a Ponzi" topic, there hasn't been much of a follow-up. With the chilling effects of last week, it's expected that the scheme is now slowly getting hungry, and this is what we observe.

[phelix]

[...]
With the chilling effects of last week [...]

By chilling effects you mean the fueling? 

The fight got BS&T so much publicity that I would not be astonished had it seen an increase in requests. P, any say on this? More, less or equal number of requests/capital?

[Vandroiy]

[...]
With the chilling effects of last week [...]

By chilling effects you mean the fueling?  

The fight got BS&T so much publicity that I would not be astonished had it seen an increase in requests. P, any say on this? More, less or equal number of requests/capital?

Mh... I don't know about after the bet, but there were a few indications of withdrawals during the week. Some people directly said it (some PMed me and thanked me for speaking my mind), and Pirateat40 seemed to complain about it at one point. It's probably the reason he took the bet. (If he's legit or running much longer, the bet is a loss for him, because I could hedge against BS&T itself and win in all cases.)

In addition, his erratic post about showing up before DefCon popped up just when things had heated up. The rate changes themselves came after I'd been pushy on IRC. It's quite a bit for "just a coincidence," more likely all the timings are controlled by deposit-withdrawal statistics, and the forum show is important. The Currin Trading story is supporting this suspicion, the operator there was very intent on keeping the climate positive.

Edit: Don't forget that, at the same relative size, withdrawals weigh more than deposits! This is one of the counter-intuitive implications of printing money.



Do not ask Pirateat40 about statistics, that is pointless. The real growth curve would clearly show what is going on, complete with absurdly large BTC accounts in it; if ever, you only get to see that in the end. Remember that Carlo Ponzi himself was serving drinks to his customers while they were lining up in panic to cause his default. He seemed unfazed until the very end. You will not notice it easily when such people make things up.

I think he went up over four percent in one day not to long ago.

Interesting! Where did you get that data? Are we talking about last week here?

On a side note, how come this information did not make you suspicious? These funds, in theory, come with quite the obligation.