ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Rival]

Over the last few months I had repeatedly seriously considered boosting my AM position significantly. My failure to act has proven to be a massive boon to my wallet in every case. I wonder how many people are out there like me considering spending fairly large sums on AM, hesitating, and then being rewarded for that hesitation. Each time, it becomes easier to hesitate.

Only FC can break this destructive cycle.

[Fabrizio89]

https://blockchain.info/address/1HtUGfbDcMzTeHWx2Dbgnhc6kYnj1Hp24i
Another 10BTC payed from BTCGuild. ?

[drasted]

https://blockchain.info/address/1HtUGfbDcMzTeHWx2Dbgnhc6kYnj1Hp24i
Another 10BTC payed from BTCGuild. ?

Yeah you can see it's been happening every 2-3 days for about a month.

[hdbuck]

Over the last few months I had repeatedly seriously considered boosting my AM position significantly. My failure to act has proven to be a massive boon to my wallet in every case. I wonder how many people are out there like me considering spending fairly large sums on AM, hesitating, and then being rewarded for that hesitation. Each time, it becomes easier to hesitate.

Only FC can break this destructive cycle.

Yes, only constant dividends will bring a steady share price...

I feel it's just not the time... yet. Not that they dont have cash to redistribute as divs.
First i was pessimistic, but with everything going around BTC and the mining industry, i think the radio silence is exactly on purpose.
FC is in the ASIC mining industry from the very beginning, he surely had the time to weight his mistakes, the competition, the future of the industry.
Now is the time make sure the killing plan is going along.
Now is the time to strengthen your position in AM if you do believe so.

discl: I am.

[funkymunky]

Over the last few months I had repeatedly seriously considered boosting my AM position significantly. My failure to act has proven to be a massive boon to my wallet in every case. I wonder how many people are out there like me considering spending fairly large sums on AM, hesitating, and then being rewarded for that hesitation. Each time, it becomes easier to hesitate.

Only FC can break this destructive cycle.

Yes, only constant dividends will bring a steady share price...

I feel it's just not the time... yet. Not that they dont have cash to redistribute as divs.
First i was pessimistic, but with everything going around BTC and the mining industry, i think the radio silence is exactly on purpose.
FC is in the ASIC mining industry from the very beginning, he surely had the time to weight his mistakes, the competition, the future of the industry.
Now is the time make sure the killing plan is going along.
Now is the time to strengthen your position in AM if you do believe so.

discl: I am.

Me too, hopefully this doesn't backfire...

For any other Security, I wouldn't be so gun ho from being caught up in other mistaken "investments".
But Asicminer from their inception have been different.

[michaelGedi]

Over the last few months I had repeatedly seriously considered boosting my AM position significantly. My failure to act has proven to be a massive boon to my wallet in every case. I wonder how many people are out there like me considering spending fairly large sums on AM, hesitating, and then being rewarded for that hesitation. Each time, it becomes easier to hesitate.

Only FC can break this destructive cycle.

Yes, only constant dividends will bring a steady share price...

I feel it's just not the time... yet. Not that they dont have cash to redistribute as divs.
First i was pessimistic, but with everything going around BTC and the mining industry, i think the radio silence is exactly on purpose.
FC is in the ASIC mining industry from the very beginning, he surely had the time to weight his mistakes, the competition, the future of the industry.
Now is the time make sure the killing plan is going along.
Now is the time to strengthen your position in AM if you do believe so.

discl: I am.

Me too, hopefully this doesn't backfire...

For any other Security, I wouldn't be so gun ho from being caught up in other mistaken "investments".
But Asicminer from their inception have been different.

I already strengthened my position, at 0.6, 0.25, and most recently at 0.18...

the last one was the best..., just before a large drop

[Puppet]

 You have begun with the incorrect assumption that your bitcoin miner will hash at a constant percentage of the network hashing rate for 730 days.  I fail to see the usefulness of your graphs.

It makes no such assumption. As long as the network hashrate is at or below the lines on the chart, at any point in time you could buy a miner and end up breaking even after 2 years, of course constrained by the listed assumptions and the curves themselves, nothing else.  If your point is that after 2 years the network may exceed those lines, thats actually part of the point, but it  requires either changing constraints or someone betting > 2 year.

[rudi]

The first Prismas should get delivered soon. Looking forward to read what people think about them.

[jjdub7]

Lol who's the Robin Hood who threw their 21/21 ask order on the books to trap the bot?  Bravo, very well-mathed.

Also, speaking of addresses, holy smokes:  

https://blockchain.info/tx/a148d24650fc68b46b67c919cce49d2fb4257c345f896d93d15fdf0d8e9ab8fc

And follow to the destination address...the BTC in that transaction (BTC13k) is worth about $4.5 million right now - when are we guessing Gen 4 tape-out will be, again?  The figure is similar to the lump payment made for the production of Gen 3, and it was the first transaction from the multisig wallet to an address other than https://blockchain.info/address/19iVyH1qUxgywY8LJSbpV4VavjZmyuEyxV.

Additionally, anyone else noticing how new transactions from the AM wallet sets start popping up right after large-scale buy runs stop on Bitstamp?  For anyone who's looked into multisig/P2SH transactions, they're generally constrained to the 3-of-3 sig case, and with very few inputs, as isStandard() will reject the transaction as valid but not standard on most mining clients.  Eligius will pick up standard transactions, but then again, Luke also broadcasts his relays.  The transaction above is definitely not standard for P2SH at 7097 bytes (max is 520 bytes, and most of that is taken up by the concatenated pubkey script).  Because the transaction was still included in block 324403 and relayed by 188.165.237.10, is it safe to assume that this block was mined by ASICMINER with the address 1Nd99aNgYWpKkqcqSMgWtdtVDadewAS5F7?

Whoever owns that 1Nd99 address probably also owns the 1AcAj9p6zJn4xLXdvmdiuPCtY7YkBPTAJo address that held a good share of the network for the middle of the year here.  I think this because of this transaction (one of the few sent from 1Nd99): https://blockchain.info/tx/87c1b45c63c4ccf7a85aaed324a872008ef80755c5b3c4eef15627abad482dbd.  Notice that there are inputs sent from both addresses, usually a good indicator that both are under the same entity.

[FUR11]

Lol who's the Robin Hood who threw their 21/21 ask order on the books to trap the bot?  Bravo, very well-mathed.

Also, speaking of addresses, holy smokes: 

https://blockchain.info/tx/a148d24650fc68b46b67c919cce49d2fb4257c345f896d93d15fdf0d8e9ab8fc

And follow to the destination address...the BTC in that transaction (BTC13k) is worth about $4.5 million right now - when are we guessing Gen 4 tape-out will be, again?  The figure is similar to the lump payment made for the production of Gen 3, and it was the first transaction from the multisig wallet to an address other than https://blockchain.info/address/19iVyH1qUxgywY8LJSbpV4VavjZmyuEyxV.

Additionally, anyone else noticing how new transactions from the AM wallet sets start popping up right after large-scale buy runs stop on Bitstamp?

Well, tape-out could have already taken place, for all we know... Or maybe it's any day now, or still may be 1-2 months in the future. I expect FC to wait for an official announcement until physical chips have proven to work and maybe only when they also met consumption specifications!

[laustcozz]

There should have been another board meeting by now.  Someone page Jutarul.

[rudi]

Additionally, anyone else noticing how new transactions from the AM wallet sets start popping up right after large-scale buy runs stop on Bitstamp?  For anyone who's looked into multisig/P2SH transactions, they're generally constrained to the 3-of-3 sig case, and with very few inputs, as isStandard() will reject the transaction as valid but not standard on most mining clients.  Eligius will pick up standard transactions, but then again, Luke also broadcasts his relays.  The transaction above is definitely not standard for P2SH at 7097 bytes (max is 520 bytes, and most of that is taken up by the concatenated pubkey script).  Because the transaction was still included in block 324403 and relayed by 188.165.237.10, is it safe to assume that this block was mined by ASICMINER with the address 1Nd99aNgYWpKkqcqSMgWtdtVDadewAS5F7?

I don't think I was able to follow this line of reasoning, but if the 1Nd99aNgYWpKkqcqSMgWtdtVDadewAS5F7 really belongs to AM, this is big news.

[Lincoln6Echo]

The first transaction date for 1Nd99aNgYWpKkqcqSMgWtdtVDadewAS5F7 is: 2014-08-23 20:16:43

That would coincidence with the estimated Self-Mining start of Asicminer, right? (starting with self mining after first batches of Tube sales)

mmhhh interesting ...

[ujka]

1AcAj9... is Bitfury; http://mempool.info/pool/2av0id51pct
So is 1Nd9...

[MrTeal]

See OoC's blog related to this.
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.au/2014/08/august-31st-2014-weekly-bitcoin-network.html

[xhomerx10]

 You have begun with the incorrect assumption that your bitcoin miner will hash at a constant percentage of the network hashing rate for 730 days.  I fail to see the usefulness of your graphs.

It makes no such assumption. As long as the network hashrate is at or below the lines on the chart, at any point in time you could buy a miner and end up breaking even after 2 years, of course constrained by the listed assumptions and the curves themselves, nothing else.  If your point is that after 2 years the network may exceed those lines, thats actually part of the point, but it  requires either changing constraints or someone betting > 2 year.

 Let's dissect the data where all points converge @1239PH/s network speed and no cost for electricity.

1 TH/s is costing $700 now on your chart and bitcoin is worth $330;

 1239 PH/s = 1239000 TH/s  
Take the reciprocal of this 1/1239000 to find out your share of the block rewards for 1 TH/s and multiply that by the total number of bitcoins produced in a day.

 total bitcoins per day for the entire network (ideal):
 25 per block (reward) x 6 (blocks per hour) x 24 hours per day = 3600

 3600 multiplied by 1/1239000 = 0.0029055690072639225181598062954 Bitcoins per day (ideal)

Now if you make that every single day for the magical number of 730 days you get 2.121065375302663438256658595642 bitcoins
and when we multiply that by the assumed $330 per bitcoin... drumroll please... we get  $699.95157384987893462469733656186 or approximately $700 dollars for our 1 TH/s miner that we paid $700 dollars for 730 days ago!  Which only works for a sustained network hashing rate of 1239 PH/s for a period of 730 days.

 Your graph and your assumptions are flawed.

           ^that is my point

[MrTeal]

 You have begun with the incorrect assumption that your bitcoin miner will hash at a constant percentage of the network hashing rate for 730 days.  I fail to see the usefulness of your graphs.

It makes no such assumption. As long as the network hashrate is at or below the lines on the chart, at any point in time you could buy a miner and end up breaking even after 2 years, of course constrained by the listed assumptions and the curves themselves, nothing else.  If your point is that after 2 years the network may exceed those lines, thats actually part of the point, but it  requires either changing constraints or someone betting > 2 year.

 Let's dissect the data where all points converge @1239PH/s network speed and no cost for electricity.

1 TH/s is costing $700 now on your chart and bitcoin is worth $330;

 1239 PH/s = 1239000 TH/s  
Take the reciprocal of this 1/1239000 to find out your share of the block rewards for 1 TH/s and multiply that by the total number of bitcoins produced in a day.

 total bitcoins per day for the entire network (ideal):
 25 per block (reward) x 6 (blocks per hour) x 24 hours per day = 3600

 3600 multiplied by 1/1239000 = 0.0029055690072639225181598062954 Bitcoins per day (ideal)

Now if you make that every single day for the magical number of 730 days you get 2.121065375302663438256658595642 bitcoins
and when we multiply that by the assumed $330 per bitcoin... drumroll please... we get  $699.95157384987893462469733656186 or approximately $700 dollars for our 1 TH/s miner that we paid $700 dollars for 730 days ago!  Which only works for a sustained network hashing rate of 1239 PH/s for a period of 730 days.

 Your graph and your assumptions are flawed.

           ^that is my point

I think you're missing the point of the graph. It's purpose is to illustrate, given certain parameters, what the final steady state network hashrate could end up being. Barring large changes in price or available technology, eventually the network will get to the point that even a large operation in a location with extremely cheap electricity will not be able to break even in X days even without difficulty changing. In that case, investment in mining hardware will slow significantly. It will probably continue to grow as ASICs are useless for anything else and manufacturers will probably sell what they have in stock or in process for whatever they can recover, but without better hardware or an exchange rate swing eventually the network hashrate will stop growing.

The question is, what point will that happen?

[Puppet]

 You have begun with the incorrect assumption that your bitcoin miner will hash at a constant percentage of the network hashing rate for 730 days.  I fail to see the usefulness of your graphs.

It makes no such assumption. As long as the network hashrate is at or below the lines on the chart, at any point in time you could buy a miner and end up breaking even after 2 years, of course constrained by the listed assumptions and the curves themselves, nothing else.  If your point is that after 2 years the network may exceed those lines, thats actually part of the point, but it  requires either changing constraints or someone betting > 2 year.

 Let's dissect the data where all points converge @1239PH/s network speed and no cost for electricity.

1 TH/s is costing $700 now on your chart and bitcoin is worth $330;

 1239 PH/s = 1239000 TH/s  
Take the reciprocal of this 1/1239000 to find out your share of the block rewards for 1 TH/s and multiply that by the total number of bitcoins produced in a day.

 total bitcoins per day for the entire network (ideal):
 25 per block (reward) x 6 (blocks per hour) x 24 hours per day = 3600

 3600 multiplied by 1/1239000 = 0.0029055690072639225181598062954 Bitcoins per day (ideal)

Now if you make that every single day for the magical number of 730 days you get 2.121065375302663438256658595642 bitcoins
and when we multiply that by the assumed $330 per bitcoin... drumroll please... we get  $699.95157384987893462469733656186 or approximately $700 dollars for our 1 TH/s miner that we paid $700 dollars for 730 days ago!  Which only works for a sustained network hashing rate of 1239 PH/s for a period of 730 days.

 Your graph and your assumptions are flawed.

           ^that is my point

The assumptions are just that, feel free to alter them yourself. The graph isnt flawed, you just dont understand what its telling you, even after manually verifying the math.

What you fail to understand is that the network isnt going to keep growing magically if there is no ROI to be had. That graph tells you when there is no more ROI to be had (or at least not within <2 year, which seems a reasonable horizon to me but feel free to change that too). Once you reach that point, who is going to buy or deploy more miners? Few if anyone, and if someone does, others will have to unplug, hence the network hashrate will remain roughly where the chart tells you it will plateau (for your chosen assumptions).

[xhomerx10]

 You have begun with the incorrect assumption that your bitcoin miner will hash at a constant percentage of the network hashing rate for 730 days.  I fail to see the usefulness of your graphs.

It makes no such assumption. As long as the network hashrate is at or below the lines on the chart, at any point in time you could buy a miner and end up breaking even after 2 years, of course constrained by the listed assumptions and the curves themselves, nothing else.  If your point is that after 2 years the network may exceed those lines, thats actually part of the point, but it  requires either changing constraints or someone betting > 2 year.

 Let's dissect the data where all points converge @1239PH/s network speed and no cost for electricity.

1 TH/s is costing $700 now on your chart and bitcoin is worth $330;

 1239 PH/s = 1239000 TH/s  
Take the reciprocal of this 1/1239000 to find out your share of the block rewards for 1 TH/s and multiply that by the total number of bitcoins produced in a day.

 total bitcoins per day for the entire network (ideal):
 25 per block (reward) x 6 (blocks per hour) x 24 hours per day = 3600

 3600 multiplied by 1/1239000 = 0.0029055690072639225181598062954 Bitcoins per day (ideal)

Now if you make that every single day for the magical number of 730 days you get 2.121065375302663438256658595642 bitcoins
and when we multiply that by the assumed $330 per bitcoin... drumroll please... we get  $699.95157384987893462469733656186 or approximately $700 dollars for our 1 TH/s miner that we paid $700 dollars for 730 days ago!  Which only works for a sustained network hashing rate of 1239 PH/s for a period of 730 days.

 Your graph and your assumptions are flawed.

           ^that is my point

I think you're missing the point of the graph. It's purpose is to illustrate, given certain parameters, what the final steady state network hashrate could end up being. Barring large changes in price or available technology, eventually the network will get to the point that even a large operation in a location with extremely cheap electricity will not be able to break even in X days even without difficulty changing. In that case, investment in mining hardware will slow significantly. It will probably continue to grow as ASICs are useless for anything else and manufacturers will probably sell what they have in stock or in process for whatever they can recover, but without better hardware or an exchange rate swing eventually the network hashrate will stop growing.

The question is, what point will that happen?

  I am not missing the point of his charts.  He stated it quite clearly in his original post - "It shows the network speed where miners would break even after 2 years using the listed assumed variables. Even  in the current climate and with current efficiency, we are no were near where (industrial) mining  would not be profitable. And the effect of power efficiency is quite dramatic if you consider reasonable electricity cost price ranges (~0.06 / KWh)"

 Perhaps you are reading something into the chart that you shouldn't?  It would be a costly mistake for anyone to purchase a miner because it lies somewhere beneath on of his curves expecting a two year ROI which he has also stated.  It is my intention to make everyone aware that this data is flawed.

 What is your intention? To defend his flawed data or to extrapolate some other non-existent usefulness from it?

[MrTeal]

 I am not missing the point of his charts.  He stated it quite clearly in his original post - "It shows the network speed where miners would break even after 2 years using the listed assumed variables. Even  in the current climate and with current efficiency, we are no were near where (industrial) mining  would not be profitable. And the effect of power efficiency is quite dramatic if you consider reasonable electricity cost price ranges (~0.06 / KWh)"

 Perhaps you are reading something into the chart that you shouldn't?  It would be a costly mistake for anyone to purchase a miner because it lies somewhere beneath on of his curves expecting a two year ROI which he has also stated.  It is my intention to make everyone aware that this data is flawed.

 What is your intention? To defend his flawed data or to extrapolate some other non-existent usefulness from it?

Can you please explain how the data is flawed? I've listed a couple points about it, but the general idea is correct. At some point investment in new hardware will cease and the network will reach steady state without a change to the input parameters. Feel free to substitute it with a more accurate model if you'd like, or provide some input on the endgame variables like efficiency or deployed cost per TH/s.