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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3898901 times)
RoadStress
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October 26, 2014, 07:00:33 PM
 #24081

obviously they are basically being very cautious now.

Why would they be if they have identified the problem and fixed it?

H/w Hosting Directory & Reputation - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=622998.0
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October 26, 2014, 07:04:37 PM
 #24082

obviously they are basically being very cautious now.

Why would they be if they have identified the problem and fixed it?

tss you can do better than this.
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October 27, 2014, 12:08:56 AM
 #24083



I actually meant December 16th + 14 days, the most important 2 weeks in AM history....... waiting for results from chip simulations. Sorry you were to slow to get that.......

That wasn't being slow mate  Wink
That was just me thinking you were slower since two weeks from now is roughly November 16  Grin
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October 27, 2014, 12:28:17 AM
 #24084



I actually meant December 16th + 14 days, the most important 2 weeks in AM history....... waiting for results from chip simulations. Sorry you were to slow to get that.......

That wasn't being slow mate  Wink
That was just me thinking you were slower since two weeks from now is roughly November 16  Grin


In the ASIC industry, I think we all know how long 'Two Weeks' (tm) can be!  Lol! Smiley
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October 27, 2014, 04:55:37 AM
 #24085




An Asiminer wafer clock. You know you want one.


Interestingly enough I sort of would want one
Nothing like diversifying the product line a bit kind of like the original USB sticks being fashionable looking
(Perhaps not a clock)
But something cool looking is always nice.

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October 27, 2014, 06:55:07 AM
 #24086

So I'm practicing pulling data via php with the Havelock API and gretl.  I pulled the entire transaction history of AM1 trades on Havelock, including days divs were paid and teased out day-of-week and month variables and ran a price regression weighted on volume.  Dates ranged from 7/10/13 to the present.  BTC-USD and BTC network data from Quandl.

*** denote degrees of statistical significance on t-normalization.

Code:

Model 1: WLS, using observations 79-8426 (n = 8348)
Dependent variable: Price
Variable used as weight: Quantity
Omitted because all values were zero: DMonth_6 DMonth_5 DMonth_4 DMonth_3
Omitted due to exact collinearity: DDayofWeek_7 DMonth_12

                                        coefficient      std. error     t-ratio    p-value
                                ----------------------------------------------------------------
  const                                 -64.0891       7.37374       -8.692   4.27e-18  ***
  Date                               -0.0200663    0.00281633    -7.125   1.13e-12  ***
  Time of Day                       3.51516e-06  2.03557e-06    1.727   0.0842    *
  Last Div Amt                         104.355        1.31024       79.65    0.0000    ***
  Days Since FC Post         -0.000763632  0.000133520   -5.719   1.11e-08  ***
 
  BTCPrice24hAvg$USD        -0.000432      2.06688e-05  -20.90    1.50e-94  ***
  DailyVolume BTC$USD     -4.32020e-07  2.54834e-08  -16.95    2.18e-63  ***
  ln(BTCNetworkHashrate)   -0.276515      0.0162034     -17.07    3.44e-64  ***
  AvgBlocksize_MB_             0.215881       0.0597392       3.614    0.0003    ***
  Network Revenue               3.85365e-08  4.20636e-09    9.161   6.37e-20  ***
       (daily, USD)
  Total BTC in Circul              5.93937e-06  6.56003e-07    9.054   1.70e-19  ***

  D_Sunday               0.00152049   0.00508091     0.2993  0.7648   
  D_Monday              -0.0274101    0.00459092    -5.971   2.46e-09  ***
  D_Tuesday             -0.0385198    0.00470833    -8.181   3.23e-16  ***
  D_Wednesday         -0.0382756    0.00441648    -8.667   5.31e-18  ***
  D_Thursday            -0.0228972    0.00470844    -4.863   1.18e-06  ***
  D_Friday                  0.00268289   0.00446526     0.6008  0.5480
   
  D_January                 0.232385    0.00761263    30.53    6.22e-194 ***
  D_February               0.235075      0.0119877     19.61    1.04e-83  ***
  D_July                      1.80466         0.0266744     67.65    0.0000    ***
  D_August                  1.33486         0.0209490     63.72    0.0000    ***
  D_September            0.424720     0.0155508       27.31   2.90e-157 ***
  D_October                0.0509887     0.0100955      5.051   4.50e-07  ***
  D_November             0.0939666    0.00638384    14.72    2.00e-48  ***

R-squared            0.978181


Granted, the dataset is still very limited for a thin market such as Havelock, but a few things to point out: 

- the variable "Days Since FCposts" is what is implies - the number of days since FC's last update to the forum.  On average, since AM shares have traded on Havelock, each day that FC does not post produces a ~76k satoshi drop in share price.  Granted, this is expected and the effect would become more drastic

- Total BTC in Circulation:  this makes sense...as the total number of BTc rises, there are more available to buy shares, leading to an increase in the share price ceteris paribus

- Weekends are a good time to sell, it seems.  Prices are higher, possibly because there are the most active users online/free at the same time over the weekend days (days' Correlation to measured relative to Saturday's contribution to predicted values).

- Since AM's capture of the high-water 30% network share, the price has decreased approximately 0.27 BTC per order of magnitude that the network hashrate has grown (that'd be your log effect)


Of course many of these variables are closely interrelated, but the Chinese exchange rate, the Chinese and American M0 supplies, and the LIBOR rate all produced negligible explanatory results when added to the model.  The Chinese exchange rate would, of course, be pegged to the USD, so perhaps this is not entirely unexpected.

Feel free to PM/reply with suggestions/comments on improving this and other models.  One useful variable I don't have is a time series of the shares outstanding on Havelock's exchange - this will definitely be useful in trying to explain, interpret, and rationalize buying and selling behavior over the past year.


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October 27, 2014, 08:03:06 AM
 #24087

A few words about AMhash (taken from AMhash thread):


As for AMhash. Buying it is similarly cost effective as buying Prismas - details varying on specific individual cases. It could give positive ROI (though probably not that much).

From a perspective of AM shareholder situation is a bit different because buying AMhash helps AM to resurface as successful operation. So, an AM shareholder buying AMhash while retaining realistic chance to earn a few coins effectively gives AM a hand. Frankly, the last conclusion increases my personal risk tolerance. 
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October 27, 2014, 08:16:17 AM
 #24088

I would like to make a 1000 btc bet that asicminer wont be payin divs this year.
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October 27, 2014, 09:53:59 AM
 #24089

I would like to make a 1000 btc bet that asicminer wont be payin divs this year.

I think they will. December for sure...

Under development Modular UPGRADEABLE Miner (MUM). Looking for investors.
Changing one PCB with screwdriver and you have brand new miner in hand... Plug&Play, scalable from one module to thousands.
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October 27, 2014, 04:09:14 PM
 #24090

AMHash1 IPO is 18% filled with a week to go, and the topic thread is rather quiet: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=833704.60

It seems like an unsuccessful IPO is a real possibility, which would not only be a depressing outcome for the offering, but could also lead to a negative feedback loop of lost confidence in AM.

Let's face it -- IPOs are about intrigue.  If I were FC, I would declare a special dividend to AM shareholders as soon as possible, making clear that it's one time only. The amount isn't important -- but going through the motions of a dividend will turn some heads and be a great opportunity to put the spotlight on AMHash1.

I don't think it's unfair to say that lots of people have forgotten about AM and regard Havelock as a place where investments go to die. If AMHash1 is actually a quality offering then it should sell itself once people know about it. I think an AM1 special dividend is the way to get that done.
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October 27, 2014, 04:15:30 PM
 #24091

AMHash1 IPO is 18% filled ....

I see ~3.7% (186650/5000000)

Under development Modular UPGRADEABLE Miner (MUM). Looking for investors.
Changing one PCB with screwdriver and you have brand new miner in hand... Plug&Play, scalable from one module to thousands.
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October 27, 2014, 04:30:01 PM
 #24092

IPO is going down for the same reason every asset in bitcoinland is going down.. which is because bitcoin itself is crawling. no more momentum, enthusiasm or confidence caused by the previous bubble.
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October 27, 2014, 04:50:59 PM
 #24093

AMHash1 IPO is 18% filled ....

I see ~3.7% (186650/5000000)

Hmm I'm seeing on Havelock 812,969 remaining out of 1,000,000 units.  Perhaps they are only offering the first tranche atm?
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October 27, 2014, 04:52:40 PM
 #24094

Has AMHash been advertised on Reddit and Zapchain?

Seems like the people with money are hanging out there rather than here these days... (please don't take it the wrong way... there was a thread on Zapchain about bitcointalk and a lot of the folks there said they had stopped coming because of the lack of community management / trolls / scams going on here)
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October 27, 2014, 05:17:35 PM
Last edit: October 27, 2014, 05:31:03 PM by Blazedout419
 #24095

IPO is going down for the same reason every asset in bitcoinland is going down.. which is because bitcoin itself is crawling. no more momentum, enthusiasm or confidence caused by the previous bubble.

Not true...look at Etherum it sold a bunch in hours. This is not selling because everyone has finally learned that buying mining contracts/securities always looses you money. If you invest 50BTC into this your chances of getting those 50BTC back are slim to none...

Anyways I will stop posting about it...not trying to thread crap here or anything.
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October 27, 2014, 07:12:49 PM
 #24096

People are also apprehensive about holding anything on Havelock because of the regulatory uncertainty.
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October 27, 2014, 07:35:14 PM
 #24097

True, after having btc stolen in Jon Montrolls bitfunder robbery and coming to realize that at least half of exchanges seem to run off deposits (or legitametly get hacked) I've apprehensive to invest in anything. Havelock is after all the one of 4 exchanges left selling am shares.

Re AM1hashing fund, I think there is still lots of trust for AM but its more that most btc world investors see cloud mining with a slim chance of returns in mining these days. You know that the price can only go down after purchase, its not like a stock, so its not an encouraging investment.

Personally speaking I think the price needs to be lower before buying any. The price is about par for the mining hardware, so for myself personally who had always got a roi in asicr mining only after mining a few months than selling the used hardware, and only ever losing btci the cloud mining I've done, its a tough sell.

I think it would been a far more successful IPO launch to offer a tremoundous price per hash for the IPO, which would then attract investors and stimulate the buying and selling on havelock after the IPO. The way it is priced now, although a decent and fair price, you can only really imagine the price going down and that's even if the IPO gets filled at all.

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cs54
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October 27, 2014, 08:27:31 PM
 #24098


I think it would been a far more successful IPO launch to offer a tremoundous price per hash for the IPO, which would then attract investors and stimulate the buying and selling on havelock after the IPO. The way it is priced now, although a decent and fair price, you can only really imagine the price going down and that's even if the IPO gets filled at all.

So, a loss leader? I would worry about expectation-setting for AMHash2, if that contract will be structured like AMHash1.
havelock
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October 27, 2014, 08:46:46 PM
 #24099

In the case with AMHash1 the BTC invested are transferred to Rockminer the manager of the funds.

They will control those funds.

So as you purchase those units on Havelock that are a part of the AMHash1 Fund  they will be in control of the Fund managers Rockminer which works with Friedcat.

The only BTC we hold online  and for a brief time is the amount to pay the dividends with.

All other BTC are offline or with the Fund Managers.

Havelock Investments




xhomerx10
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October 27, 2014, 08:56:46 PM
 #24100


I think it would been a far more successful IPO launch to offer a tremoundous price per hash for the IPO, which would then attract investors and stimulate the buying and selling on havelock after the IPO. The way it is priced now, although a decent and fair price, you can only really imagine the price going down and that's even if the IPO gets filled at all.

So, a loss leader? I would worry about expectation-setting for AMHash2, if that contract will be structured like AMHash1.

 You people are looking at this way too deeply.  You get a miner without paying the shipping AND you run 1 TH for a buck sixty three per day without the need of buying a power supply!  The div per share is the same as the theoretical reward you would make from a 1 GH miner per second.  Really this is like a gift from AM Wink
  
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