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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3898971 times)
Zubilica
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September 16, 2014, 09:38:45 AM
 #23121

divs tomorrow

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September 16, 2014, 09:50:20 AM
 #23122

divs tomorrow

That is an interesting statement....
Any evidence to backup this comment???

Other than my analytics, it appears no.  I also hadn't commented on the status of dividends, although if you count the total BTC in the addresses I posted and those addresses belong to friedcat and co., ASICMINER has at least ~65k BTC on hand.

However, it would appear that the BTC from mining addresses are being amassed...


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arnuschky
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September 16, 2014, 10:28:51 AM
 #23123

I hope you are right...
That would mean a big fat dividend and I will be eating lobster tomorrow evening...  Grin

I will be eating my hat because I didn't buy more shares just before that. Wink
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September 16, 2014, 11:20:02 AM
 #23124

$92/share for AM is pretty stinkin' cheap.
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September 16, 2014, 11:21:39 AM
 #23125

$92/share for AM is pretty stinkin' cheap.

definitely, gonna send a few BTC to havelock
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September 16, 2014, 11:42:03 AM
 #23126

For reference, and is anyone more technically-inclined in the chip fab space able to roadmap gen4 info now that's we're two weeks into the next quarter:

Brief Answers to Shareholder Questions

First of all, we would like to explain the situation we had in this May. The sales of chips mainly happened before May, while the ramp-up speed of chip sales slowed down mainly because of the lack of flexible whole-device solutions (having features of easy transportation, widely available components, etc) from our customers (device producers). As dedicated projects on improving the design of BE200-based devices we believe we will see much better sales because the room for hash rate growth is still huge and our cost in terms of $/G is highly competitive.

The other point we would like to address is that we are not cooperating with any mining device producers other than in the forms of simple buyer-seller relationship. Nor we hold shares of any other device producers. Our pricing strategy was discussed in the board before, which targets low margin large quantity instead of high margin small quantity because: 1) If both device producers and miners can have real profit after risk premium we will develop reliable consumer of chips in the long time. 2) It alleviates the problem of many potential purchasers waste time waiting for future price adjustments. 3) Higher quantity of orders in this generation leads to much more support from the fab with respect to all future generations of chips.

1) On the Balance Sheet, approximately how many chips does the current Inventory (Products + Materials + Masks) represent?
A little less than 60P of wafers, most of which are on their final stages of production. The materials consist mainly of lead frames for packaging. The mask is re-usable for years if there are continuing demands for the corresponding wafers.

2) How many months of inventory do you estimate that represents?
Depending on the Bitcoin price. Under this price we expect it to be 1-1.5.

3) On the Cash Flow there was significant expenses for gen3 production (~6mil USD). Does that represent the bulk of gen3 expenses, or are the expenses for gen3 going to continue (additional wafer batches ordered, etc.)?
It represent the order we already placed and paid for. There still are forecast plans for June we haven't paid for. They may be cancelled or delayed to later months according to how fast customers can turn Bitcoin chips to hashing power.

4) When will dividends start, and how frequently will they occur?
When the cash-flow becomes positive. After we decide to put significant quantity of chips on ASICMiner owned farms it should be per week. Before that, per month.

5) What is the status of gen 3.1 (shipping to customers, I think?)? How much does it help with energy usage -- do we have final chip performance numbers yet?
All shipped chips are gen 3.0 ones. What we had chosen for 3.1 helps with energy usage at 10% range and has some performance degrades. The final chip performance number is about 0.7W/G at 0.78V and 320MHz. Below that voltage we have less power draw and less speed.

6) What is the progress on gen4?
It is 28nm and has two major improvements: the first one is to fix the design errors we had with 40nm (which made our silicon data two times worse than simulated data). We believe that 0.35W/G at rated speed of 400MHz would be achievable in 40nm if no mistakes were made before. The second one is the technology improvement from 40nm to 28nm in terms of density, speed and power.

We are on the stage of evaluating the final design choices by running the physical design flow on different settings.

7) What is the status of self mining? What is the rollout schedule for the data centers?

8 ) What is the status of franchising partners? When can we expect to see income from them?
We will report the more detailed status to the board first. The short answer is that deploying and financing is easy while getting cheap electricity and proper device solution takes time. When we have farms running we can update the related information with real time hash rate.

9) Can you please clarify this sentence from 21st April : "The dividend schedule will be aggressive, as AM will not require large sums of retained capital." < is this still actual, or meanwhile something changed?
It is still actual. The condition in May is not a part of the plan. When we were forecasted permissively about this summer's production power of the fab, we ordered as many wafers as we could to prevent the bottleneck with wafer production.

10) What is the average selling price of AM gen3 chips (price per Gh/s)?
About 0.5$/G for sold chips.

11) What is that ~4M CNY in financial report/expenses at exchange?
Exchanged to USD.

12) What is the cash flow ratio between the amount of Chips Fabricated and the percentage of the batch that is dedicated to cost.
There are no orders dedicated to cost in the short time. So it's 1:0.

13) What is the Break Even Point of this batch of Chips?
Although the cost of making could be estimated by companies with experience on fabricating chips of high-end technology nodes, we
would rather retain the accurate price per chip from the public.

14) What is the estimated conversion time from chip sales to dividends?
The conversion time itself is fast and should not be the main stagnation of the time frame.

15) Will the funds from future Gen 3 chips be used to fund Gen 4 chips or distributed as a dividend, and what relative percentage of income will be retained for Gen 4?
Both. 1/3 as forecasted.

16) Previously our Asicminer farm was mining bitcoins and distributing a weekly dividend, will Asicminer update its present hash rate in the mining farms to account for current difficulty changes and to procure a secondary supply of Bitcoins to adapt for rapid changes in Bitcoin prices?
Yes. But that should be when we replace the farm with BE200 based devices, otherwise it is no point considering the 0.12-0.15$/kwh electricity price we get for our old farms.

17) What ever happened to the dedicated PR person and should AM make a website for distributors and for Chip inquiries?

18) Can we please get weekly, bi-weekly or monthly updates about progress, plans, sales etc. for preventing FUD in this thread?

19) Can you please communicate more clearly/frequently with shareholders?
When we are sure we get a good solution for the lack of communication we will announce.

20) What are the future plans and visions of Asicminer?
There will be at least two generations ahead. If future Bitcoin market cap allows there can be more. As we are keeping the chip design capability to grow with state-of-the-art technology as well as good channels with fabrication we can be flexible in terms of business mode be it chip-based or device-based.


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September 16, 2014, 12:10:10 PM
 #23127

divs tomorrow

We are complaining about newbies that post relevant, structured, funded information.
However, when a Hero member posts two words without any further information, nobody complains :-)

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September 16, 2014, 12:11:41 PM
 #23128

divs tomorrow

We are complaining about newbies that post relevant, structured, funded information.
However, when a Hero member posts two words without any further information, nobody complains :-)

who cares who's a hero or who's not, I also want divs tomorrow Smiley
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September 16, 2014, 12:26:25 PM
 #23129

For reference, and is anyone more technically-inclined in the chip fab space able to roadmap gen4 info now that's we're two weeks into the next quarter:

19) Can you please communicate more clearly/frequently with shareholders?
When we are sure we get a good solution for the lack of communication we will announce.

That one's still standing out as much as ever.
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September 16, 2014, 12:27:47 PM
 #23130

$92/share for AM is pretty stinkin' cheap.
Yes, a valuation of around $40mill appears cheap.

If AM mines 10% of the 2.5mill coins available before the next halving (Nov 2016), that's 250,000 *$500 (today's btc price keeping with round numbers), = $125mill. Add roughly the same amount again for the following 4yrs @ 12.5btc block rate. That's $250mill over 6yrs, less costs of course.

If btc avges $2000 over that timeframe, that's $1Billion in gross income, or $2500/share.

If that transpired, AM would be sitting pretty as a 'blue chip' security, supporting a SP of some multiple of annual income, a p/e ratio of, who knows, 10x, 50x, more???

No negative feedback please  Wink
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September 16, 2014, 12:40:24 PM
 #23131

$92/share for AM is pretty stinkin' cheap.
Yes, a valuation of around $40mill appears cheap.

If AM mines 10% of the 2.5mill coins available before the next halving (Nov 2016), that's 250,000 *$500 (today's btc price keeping with round numbers), = $125mill. Add roughly the same amount again for the following 4yrs @ 12.5btc block rate. That's $250mill over 6yrs, less costs of course.

No negative feedback please  Wink


You forgot to add in the bonus of not having inflation - i.e. with QE pretending to pause for the moment and a US housing market that's about to learn how large the student debt bubble is...I'm not an inflation hawk, but surely these 1.5% annualized monthly figures are not telling of the global economic situation right now.


.BITENNY.
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September 16, 2014, 01:11:03 PM
 #23132

$92/share for AM is pretty stinkin' cheap.
Yes, a valuation of around $40mill appears cheap.

If AM mines 10% of the 2.5mill coins available before the next halving (Nov 2016), that's 250,000 *$500 (today's btc price keeping with round numbers), = $125mill. Add roughly the same amount again for the following 4yrs @ 12.5btc block rate. That's $250mill over 6yrs, less costs of course.

No negative feedback please  Wink


You forgot to add in the bonus of not having inflation - i.e. with QE pretending to pause for the moment and a US housing market that's about to learn how large the student debt bubble is...I'm not an inflation hawk, but surely these 1.5% annualized monthly figures are not telling of the global economic situation right now.
Yes, that scenario could, perhaps, be tweaked a little around the edges.  Smiley
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September 16, 2014, 01:33:51 PM
 #23133

[...]

Hashrate growth / Deployment speed doesn't look bad at all. I'm very excited for the next few days.

Payouts in the last 10 days don't necessarily mean the same amount is mined in the last 10 days. In theory, they could be mining since july and only now configure the payout options on btcguild for example. So you should be careful about statements about hashrate growth and deployment speed.

That is definitely true. Especially the 8 payouts for 80btc on September 11 to the official mining address most likely weren't mined on the 11th itself. I do believe they were mined after this transaction though: https://blockchain.info/de/tx/fe5c9322bc331cab85b60704f07d318830e5a298618c5048c770633300902f65 (looks like a corresponding BTCGuild account was cleared and then configured for automated payout on September 11. This is of course very speculative). It probably really was/is too early to make any statements regarding deployment speed. We can assume hashrate is growing since 50 days though.

[....]
Yet, I'd trust that btcguild has a pretty good idea of each user's hash power, and their fastest user is still 566620 at 2.4PH.

I suppose the payout address could be the same for multiple users. But in that case, why not use one single payout address, instead of splitting into 2 (or more)?


Well we know that User 67117 most likely still belongs to asicminer as well (http://mineforeman.com/2013/02/15/67117-identity-reviled-its-asicminer-now-at-2-ths/). Aside from that I don't have any idea which Pool accounts might belong to asicminer, I'm just looking at the blockchain.

New post to highlight significance.  Funds moved out of original (old solo) mining address to https://blockchain.info/address/1ERszMSERwHNR9Xty73KZXpsg1jjBXWcHh

This address in turn links to many of the other addresses mentioned through a ~500 BTC  transaction to https://blockchain.info/address/16V3hoVfbQmpQQpCSkAirjVHGfSFoDFSbW (to sign these tx's, FC would have to hold the private keys to all inputs), including, most notably:

https://blockchain.info/address/19iVyH1qUxgywY8LJSbpV4VavjZmyuEyxV
https://blockchain.info/address/3MkwFfGNQDve7vz1z6gUDVxkuQpcSV3Mz8
https://blockchain.info/address/13p5iQkqBEVgKmPeJqEL2LBRS44PjX1dZL
https://blockchain.info/address/1KryFUt9tXHvaoCYTNPbqpWPJKQ717YmL5

[...]

Sorry, I don't quite get it. Please elaborate a bit if you find the time. My thoughts:

 - Official mining address forwards to https://blockchain.info/de/address/1ERszMSERwHNR9Xty73KZXpsg1jjBXWcHh (which could already be controlled by someone different than friedcat, couldn't it? Could be some exchange.)
 -  IF it is indeed controlled by friedcat, then for example all inputs in this transaction ( https://blockchain.info/de/tx/e63990fc8ff8d19479a93698ed7dfb1169221657431be51b485a58fb8941a6b1 ) should be controlled by friedcat as well.
 - 3MkwFfGNQDve7vz1z6gUDVxkuQpcSV3Mz8 is never an input of a similar transaction I could find. So where do you get proof that it is controlled by asicminer?
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September 16, 2014, 02:06:05 PM
 #23134

divs tomorrow

We are complaining about newbies that post relevant, structured, funded information.
However, when a Hero member posts two words without any further information, nobody complains :-)

 What does it mean to be a Hero member other than that person has the gift of gab?  The quality of the post doesn't derive itself from the user status and keep in mind that these member accounts are bought, sold and traded.

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September 16, 2014, 02:20:35 PM
 #23135

<- ambullish
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September 16, 2014, 04:00:54 PM
 #23136

divs tomorrow

We are complaining about newbies that post relevant, structured, funded information.
However, when a Hero member posts two words without any further information, nobody complains :-)
A source would be nice
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September 16, 2014, 04:02:39 PM
Last edit: September 16, 2014, 04:16:29 PM by jjdub7
 #23137


New post to highlight significance.  Funds moved out of original (old solo) mining address to https://blockchain.info/address/1ERszMSERwHNR9Xty73KZXpsg1jjBXWcHh.  

This address in turn links to many of the other addresses mentioned through a ~500 BTC  transaction to https://blockchain.info/address/16V3hoVfbQmpQQpCSkAirjVHGfSFoDFSbW (to sign these tx's, FC would have to hold the private keys to all inputs), including, most notably:

https://blockchain.info/address/19iVyH1qUxgywY8LJSbpV4VavjZmyuEyxV
https://blockchain.info/address/3MkwFfGNQDve7vz1z6gUDVxkuQpcSV3Mz8
https://blockchain.info/address/13p5iQkqBEVgKmPeJqEL2LBRS44PjX1dZL
https://blockchain.info/address/1KryFUt9tXHvaoCYTNPbqpWPJKQ717YmL5

[...]

Sorry, I don't quite get it. Please elaborate a bit if you find the time. My thoughts:

 - Official mining address forwards to https://blockchain.info/de/address/1ERszMSERwHNR9Xty73KZXpsg1jjBXWcHh (which could already be controlled by someone different than friedcat, couldn't it? Could be some exchange.)
 -  IF it is indeed controlled by friedcat, then for example all inputs in this transaction ( https://blockchain.info/de/tx/e63990fc8ff8d19479a93698ed7dfb1169221657431be51b485a58fb8941a6b1 ) should be controlled by friedcat as well.
 - 3MkwFfGNQDve7vz1z6gUDVxkuQpcSV3Mz8 is never an input of a similar transaction I could find. So where do you get proof that it is controlled by asicminer?

It's crossed paths with sales addresses over multiple addresses with amounts that are too large for individual sales transfers and too consistent/regular to be for paying electric expenses.  The multisig address (3Mkw) has inputs from 1KYXrw4Ftkmomfs4iyVXUSqQeRX75Unoi8, and repeatedly puts outputs through to 19iVyH1qUxgywY8LJSbpV4VavjZmyuEyxV, which I identified as a nexus in my OP.

Two things:  with the amount of BTC we're considering, you don't fux around without at least one multisig lockbox.  I think that 19iVyH1qUxgywY8LJSbpV4VavjZmyuEyxV and 13p5iQkqBEVgKmPeJqEL2LBRS44PjX1dZL are likely two addresses in separate wallets with a very large number of change addresses attached to them, both of which contain signing keys for the lockbox.  This is going a bit into wallet-cashflow strategies and how they might play into bolstering security, but I would say that according to the timestamps of the transactions across these 3 addresses, that the 19iVy and 13p5i keys are held on different machines, and that either 13p5i is hosted on an offline machine (output tx's are often numerous and clustered at the same timestamp, indicating that these transactions are created and signed offline and then broadcast in tandem with other operating tx's).  

However, again, this is just my theory from what I've been observing over the past two months.  I'll reiterate once more - the key to being able to link the wallets was the transfer from the old mining address that occurred this morning.  It pinned the least common denominator at that multisig address and related wallets.  

Additionally, it seems that friedcat likes to effectively shatter the inputs he receives into small outputs across many wallets, which I would guess he encrypts with a unique, computer-generated key schematic (if he's as witty as I think he's been with security).  Just this morning, I traced transactions through over 500 addresses that saw 500 BTC from December 2013 split into ~0.1BTC addresses backtracking out from a few small inputs from the original mining address (withheld capital from last round's divs)...so it's possibly, if not probably, that only a moderate fraction of AM's holdings may be traceable via tractable methods at any given time.

Example: look at the recent outputs from https://blockchain.info/address/1KryFUt9tXHvaoCYTNPbqpWPJKQ717YmL5 - nice, even pieces of 1 BTC to individual addresses that clump back up again over time.


IF it is indeed controlled by friedcat, then for example all inputs in this transaction ( https://blockchain.info/de/tx/e63990fc8ff8d19479a93698ed7dfb1169221657431be51b485a58fb8941a6b1 ) should be controlled by friedcat as well.


Precisely.  You use the same analytical thinking as I do to cull through the ledger - keep looking.  It might take a while, but I think you'll see what I'm talking about.

From the 2nd link past the originating (AM mining) address, look through https://blockchain.info/address/17whCacdyEzKJ8ArDmkvjRg8WFvoDZbqPS.  It's a multi-change transaction that filters back through to 19iVy and other associated addresses and again through to the multisig.  Think about the perspective that many of these addresses may be in the same wallets.


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mxmenga
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September 16, 2014, 04:53:53 PM
 #23138

Hi all
 i have 2 direct asicminer shares (no havelock) , not pay to may 2014
unfortunatly i have no more time follow all discussion (very long) , sorry for this.

the share is in stand by? restart pay in future?
I have to do the conversion request to someone?

 thanks to reply

Shop by Crypto - Tech & Lifestyle - https://www.digitalkey.it
Bonam
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September 16, 2014, 05:28:28 PM
 #23139

Hi all
 i have 2 direct asicminer shares (no havelock) , not pay to may 2014
unfortunatly i have no more time follow all discussion (very long) , sorry for this.

the share is in stand by? restart pay in future?
I have to do the conversion request to someone?

 thanks to reply

There have been no dividends for several months. Your direct shares are still fine and you can keep them as is, no need to convert anything unless you want to sell them.

Some people have theorized that dividends will restart soon, based on movements of funds between various addresses thought to belong to Asicminer. But there has been no recent word from friedcat regarding dividends.
runam0k
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September 16, 2014, 05:52:31 PM
 #23140

<- ambullish
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