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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3914132 times)
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September 15, 2014, 03:04:46 AM
 #23061


http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNzgyMzczMjQw.html

few days ago, the Sales Manager of FC said in the forum: " we still in the plan to reach 20% of total hash rate before end of this year."


Given the overall network increases, and 2 months of deployment so far, I have to conclude that it can't be done on gen 3 hardware.  They are counting on the first batch of gen 4 to make the difference ("before the end of the year").  Not great news, but keeping the carrot dangling a little farther out.  Any other interpretations?   
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September 15, 2014, 04:28:28 AM
 #23062

just picked up another share from some left over btc and sig campaign payout  Cool

looks like a couple people did as well right around the same time
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September 15, 2014, 08:02:30 AM
 #23063

Hi Guys

My Findings regarding mining addresses:

 - Official Asicminer mining address: https://blockchain.info/address/1HtUGfbDcMzTeHWx2Dbgnhc6kYnj1Hp24i
 - https://blockchain.info/address/1H7FpBV8huVmPvt5eRzszAkgnERH2FaWvq: Receives payouts the same way the official mining address does since a few days. Payouts started on July 24. Same as the official mining address, it forwards to https://blockchain.info/address/1ERszMSERwHNR9Xty73KZXpsg1jjBXWcHh. Also forwards to https://blockchain.info/address/17EA1UT5amSvasuhzUDPs1pLgxdrbRYLAX, which is known from Asicminer Tube sales. Please follow https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=735728.msg8357879#msg8357879

I think it's safe to assume these two addresses indeed belong to Asicminer and are used to receive mining payouts. I gathered these payouts and looked at 10 day intervals to get a rough estimate for Asicminer's hashrate and hashrate growth:

Code:
2014-07-24 to 2014-08-03: 100 btc / 10*3600btc = 0.002777778; estimated total network hashrate: 134PH/s; ASICminer's share: 134PH*0.003611111=0,483888874PH/s
2014-08-03 to 2014-08-12: 230 btc / 36000 btc = 0.006388889; estimated total network hashrate: 141PH/s; ASICminer's share: 141PH/s*0.006388889=0,900833349PH/s
2014-08-13 to 2014-08-22: 280 btc / 36000 btc = 0.007777778; estimated total network hashrate: 165PH/s; ASICminer's share: 165PH/s*0.007777778=1,28333337PH/s
2014-08-23 to 2014-09-01: 351.88981744 btc / 36000 btc = 0.009774717; estimated total network hashrate: 180PH/s; ASICminer's share: 180PH/s*0.009774717=1,75944906PH/s
2014-09-02 to 2014-09-11: 543.13536631 btc / 36000 btc =  0.015087094; estimated total network hashrate: 200PH/s; ASICminer's share: 200PH/s*0.015087094=3.017418702PH/s

Please note: Total network hashrate and coins mined by the whole network are very rough estimates.

Hashrate growth / Deployment speed doesn't look bad at all. I'm very excited for the next few days.

Very nice find, thank you.

If this is approximately correct, it looks like AM will soon have enough hashing power to consider solo-mining again.

However, at the rate they are currently increasing their hashrate, there is no way they will reach 20% of the network before the end of the year, even if the total network hashrate does not increase (and I expect that it will increase). I therefore also think that something new is in the plans. Most likely they are counting on gen4.

But 20% of the network? Say ~100PH by year's end? Will all of this fit into a single monster farm?

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September 15, 2014, 09:00:45 AM
 #23064

Hi Guys

My Findings regarding mining addresses:

 - Official Asicminer mining address: https://blockchain.info/address/1HtUGfbDcMzTeHWx2Dbgnhc6kYnj1Hp24i
 - https://blockchain.info/address/1H7FpBV8huVmPvt5eRzszAkgnERH2FaWvq: Receives payouts the same way the official mining address does since a few days. Payouts started on July 24. Same as the official mining address, it forwards to https://blockchain.info/address/1ERszMSERwHNR9Xty73KZXpsg1jjBXWcHh. Also forwards to https://blockchain.info/address/17EA1UT5amSvasuhzUDPs1pLgxdrbRYLAX, which is known from Asicminer Tube sales. Please follow https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=735728.msg8357879#msg8357879

I think it's safe to assume these two addresses indeed belong to Asicminer and are used to receive mining payouts. I gathered these payouts and looked at 10 day intervals to get a rough estimate for Asicminer's hashrate and hashrate growth:

Code:
2014-07-24 to 2014-08-03: 100 btc / 10*3600btc = 0.002777778; estimated total network hashrate: 134PH/s; ASICminer's share: 134PH*0.003611111=0,483888874PH/s
2014-08-03 to 2014-08-12: 230 btc / 36000 btc = 0.006388889; estimated total network hashrate: 141PH/s; ASICminer's share: 141PH/s*0.006388889=0,900833349PH/s
2014-08-13 to 2014-08-22: 280 btc / 36000 btc = 0.007777778; estimated total network hashrate: 165PH/s; ASICminer's share: 165PH/s*0.007777778=1,28333337PH/s
2014-08-23 to 2014-09-01: 351.88981744 btc / 36000 btc = 0.009774717; estimated total network hashrate: 180PH/s; ASICminer's share: 180PH/s*0.009774717=1,75944906PH/s
2014-09-02 to 2014-09-11: 543.13536631 btc / 36000 btc =  0.015087094; estimated total network hashrate: 200PH/s; ASICminer's share: 200PH/s*0.015087094=3.017418702PH/s


If this is true and I would like to think that this is, then we're finally cathing up to the competition...
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September 15, 2014, 09:01:37 AM
 #23065

Hi Guys

My Findings regarding mining addresses:

 - Official Asicminer mining address: https://blockchain.info/address/1HtUGfbDcMzTeHWx2Dbgnhc6kYnj1Hp24i
 - https://blockchain.info/address/1H7FpBV8huVmPvt5eRzszAkgnERH2FaWvq: Receives payouts the same way the official mining address does since a few days. Payouts started on July 24. Same as the official mining address, it forwards to https://blockchain.info/address/1ERszMSERwHNR9Xty73KZXpsg1jjBXWcHh. Also forwards to https://blockchain.info/address/17EA1UT5amSvasuhzUDPs1pLgxdrbRYLAX, which is known from Asicminer Tube sales. Please follow https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=735728.msg8357879#msg8357879

I think it's safe to assume these two addresses indeed belong to Asicminer and are used to receive mining payouts. I gathered these payouts and looked at 10 day intervals to get a rough estimate for Asicminer's hashrate and hashrate growth:

Code:
2014-07-24 to 2014-08-03: 100 btc / 10*3600btc = 0.002777778; estimated total network hashrate: 134PH/s; ASICminer's share: 134PH*0.003611111=0,483888874PH/s
2014-08-03 to 2014-08-12: 230 btc / 36000 btc = 0.006388889; estimated total network hashrate: 141PH/s; ASICminer's share: 141PH/s*0.006388889=0,900833349PH/s
2014-08-13 to 2014-08-22: 280 btc / 36000 btc = 0.007777778; estimated total network hashrate: 165PH/s; ASICminer's share: 165PH/s*0.007777778=1,28333337PH/s
2014-08-23 to 2014-09-01: 351.88981744 btc / 36000 btc = 0.009774717; estimated total network hashrate: 180PH/s; ASICminer's share: 180PH/s*0.009774717=1,75944906PH/s
2014-09-02 to 2014-09-11: 543.13536631 btc / 36000 btc =  0.015087094; estimated total network hashrate: 200PH/s; ASICminer's share: 200PH/s*0.015087094=3.017418702PH/s

Please note: Total network hashrate and coins mined by the whole network are very rough estimates.

Hashrate growth / Deployment speed doesn't look bad at all. I'm very excited for the next few days.

Payouts in the last 10 days don't necessarily mean the same amount is mined in the last 10 days. In theory, they could be mining since july and only now configure the payout options on btcguild for example. So you should be careful about statements about hashrate growth and deployment speed.

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September 15, 2014, 12:08:47 PM
 #23066

@Luffy27, great first post!

If the payouts proceed automatically every hour as long as there is sufficient balance, 10 days should be a sufficiently long time to have a decent rough estimate.  Yet, I'd trust that btcguild has a pretty good idea of each user's hash power, and their fastest user is still 566620 at 2.4PH.

I suppose the payout address could be the same for multiple users. But in that case, why not use one single payout address, instead of splitting into 2 (or more)?

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September 15, 2014, 12:13:28 PM
 #23067

if friedcat would have free power thoose 3ph

Friedcat did say that he had gained access to cheap electricity, but free is pushing it.

How cheap does industrial electricity get in China anyway?
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September 15, 2014, 12:47:33 PM
 #23068

I suppose the payout address could be the same for multiple users. But in that case, why not use one single payout address, instead of splitting into 2 (or more)?

here is why:



^^
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September 15, 2014, 01:32:51 PM
 #23069

I suppose the payout address could be the same for multiple users. But in that case, why not use one single payout address, instead of splitting into 2 (or more)?

here is why:



^^

you mean

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September 15, 2014, 01:37:58 PM
 #23070

A fleet of chips.
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September 15, 2014, 02:26:32 PM
 #23071

 Cheesy  love it!

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September 15, 2014, 02:40:06 PM
 #23072


Payouts in the last 10 days don't necessarily mean the same amount is mined in the last 10 days. In theory, they could be mining since july and only now configure the payout options on btcguild for example. So you should be careful about statements about hashrate growth and deployment speed.

Payouts started on July 24.
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September 15, 2014, 02:49:38 PM
 #23073


Payouts in the last 10 days don't necessarily mean the same amount is mined in the last 10 days. In theory, they could be mining since july and only now configure the payout options on btcguild for example. So you should be careful about statements about hashrate growth and deployment speed.

Payouts started on July 24.


I am not questioning the payouts, but I am questioning the growth.

Quote
2014-09-02 to 2014-09-11: 543.13536631 btc / 36000 btc =  0.015087094; estimated total network hashrate: 200PH/s; ASICminer's share: 200PH/s*0.015087094=3.017418702PH/s
Based on these numbers, it's impossible to see if these 543 btc is really mined in September. Part of it could also be mined in August and paid out in September. So the real mining speed for September could be a lot less than 3PH/s.

I'm just trying to be a bit careful with these numbers. New users don't know how to interpret all this information.

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September 15, 2014, 05:00:21 PM
 #23074

Hi Guys

My Findings regarding mining addresses:

 - Official Asicminer mining address: https://blockchain.info/address/1HtUGfbDcMzTeHWx2Dbgnhc6kYnj1Hp24i
 - https://blockchain.info/address/1H7FpBV8huVmPvt5eRzszAkgnERH2FaWvq: Receives payouts the same way the official mining address does since a few days. Payouts started on July 24. Same as the official mining address, it forwards to https://blockchain.info/address/1ERszMSERwHNR9Xty73KZXpsg1jjBXWcHh. Also forwards to https://blockchain.info/address/17EA1UT5amSvasuhzUDPs1pLgxdrbRYLAX, which is known from Asicminer Tube sales. Please follow https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=735728.msg8357879#msg8357879

I think it's safe to assume these two addresses indeed belong to Asicminer and are used to receive mining payouts. I gathered these payouts and looked at 10 day intervals to get a rough estimate for Asicminer's hashrate and hashrate growth:

Please note: Total network hashrate and coins mined by the whole network are very rough estimates.

Hashrate growth / Deployment speed doesn't look bad at all. I'm very excited for the next few days.

Great first post! Hopefully your analysis is correct.
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September 15, 2014, 05:11:30 PM
Last edit: September 15, 2014, 05:35:12 PM by ensurance982
 #23075

We're obviously receiving 10 BTC every 58 hours now in the mining address. Combined with the recent difficulty change this perfectly accounts for the 270 TH/s on BTCGuild. I don't know if lophie even reads my posts, or just skims them over and picks out some figures and combines them arbitrarily, but this just adds up perfectly Smiley. I also just can hope that we've got mining income from other sources, since this is very meager. My bets are on gen 4 as of now.

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September 15, 2014, 05:58:22 PM
 #23076

We're obviously receiving 10 BTC every 58 hours now in the mining address.

Are you really feeling like : "We're receiving..." ? ? ? my dividend address is untouched, that bitcoins are going to some private entity from middle of "July?", without an explanation. With that guesses about hashrate, this thread is catching straw. He don't even attend the interview.  Busy spending btc Roll Eyes middle of September here, the summer is gone. What next? Another fucked winter by ASICminer?

Seems like it was one-time-mirracle and then gross incompetence. This communication here is worse than it was in NeoBee thread before shutdown.

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September 15, 2014, 06:22:31 PM
 #23077

Given the overall network increases, and 2 months of deployment so far, I have to conclude that it can't be done on gen 3 hardware.  They are counting on the first batch of gen 4 to make the difference ("before the end of the year").  Not great news, but keeping the carrot dangling a little farther out.  Any other interpretations?   

How much hashing power have AM deployed in the past 2 months then? Given you've drawn a conclusion based on that data, obviously you have actual numbers to base your calculations on. So, how much have they brought online in the past 2 months?
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September 15, 2014, 06:29:20 PM
 #23078

We're obviously receiving 10 BTC every 58 hours now in the mining address. Combined with the recent difficulty change this perfectly accounts for the 270 TH/s on BTCGuild. I don't know if lophie even reads my posts, or just skims them over and picks out some figures and combines them arbitrarily, but this just adds up perfectly Smiley. I also just can hope that we've got mining income from other sources, since this is very meager. My bets are on gen 4 as of now.

There's nothing obvious about that and until proven to be a fact, it's just speculation. Reading the last few pages here, people are starting to cross the line into RoadStress territory where fact and fiction are the same things.

All this information from the past week is just rumour and speculation. Nothing more. You can treat this info as factual if you want but you'll only be disappointed if it turns out to be bullshit.
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September 15, 2014, 06:32:45 PM
 #23079

We're obviously receiving 10 BTC every 58 hours now in the mining address. Combined with the recent difficulty change this perfectly accounts for the 270 TH/s on BTCGuild. I don't know if lophie even reads my posts, or just skims them over and picks out some figures and combines them arbitrarily, but this just adds up perfectly Smiley. I also just can hope that we've got mining income from other sources, since this is very meager. My bets are on gen 4 as of now.

And what happens if gen4 misses efficiency specs like gen3 did?  ASICMINER is dead in the water.

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September 15, 2014, 08:05:14 PM
 #23080

We're obviously receiving 10 BTC every 58 hours now in the mining address. Combined with the recent difficulty change this perfectly accounts for the 270 TH/s on BTCGuild. I don't know if lophie even reads my posts, or just skims them over and picks out some figures and combines them arbitrarily, but this just adds up perfectly Smiley. I also just can hope that we've got mining income from other sources, since this is very meager. My bets are on gen 4 as of now.

And what happens if gen4 misses efficiency specs like gen3 did?  ASICMINER is dead in the water.

Three strikes and you are out. Gen2, Gen3 (which I haven't thrown the towel in on just yet), and then Gen4 which the company believes it can deploy by years end. One dark winter for AM was brutal enough, another would do the company in. We will not have to wait much longer to find out how this story concludes, and Fried Cat could still surprise us with Gen3.
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