ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[FUR11]

Holy dump batman!  Someone is trying to start a panic.

Just got a Mail from Havelock that there has been trading activity, and I was like... "Wait a minute, my only open order is that one slightly above IPO prices"... Holy cow! But thanks, anonymous donor, I was super mad I missed last weeks selloff to IPO levels!

[Bonam]

It's not a difficulty prediction tool, it's an endgame estimation tool.

If we know the $/gh, w/gh, and $/kwh we can estimate how much hashrate it would take before nobody could afford to continue adding hashing power. (but not when or at what rate)

We don't know the variable so it's only a guess but his point is clear that J/GH does make a huge difference.

So the graphs are done assuming a static difficulty for 2 years. Then of course it looks like you can make a profit, duh. When I say it is difficult to even recover capital costs of hardware, what I mean is given that you buy the hardware at a specific point in time, and then it mines in an environment where difficulty continues to rise at the historical rate. You know, reality.

[MrTeal]

It's not a difficulty prediction tool, it's an endgame estimation tool.

If we know the $/gh, w/gh, and $/kwh we can estimate how much hashrate it would take before nobody could afford to continue adding hashing power. (but not when or at what rate)

We don't know the variable so it's only a guess but his point is clear that J/GH does make a huge difference.

So the graphs are done assuming a static difficulty for 2 years. Then of course it looks like you can make a profit, duh. When I say it is difficult to even recover capital costs of hardware, what I mean is given that you buy the hardware at a specific point in time, and then it mines in an environment where difficulty continues to rise at the historical rate. You know, reality.

When you cannot recover your initial investment within two years with cheap power and the most efficient and lowest cost hardware on the market, difficulty will not rise at the historical rates.

Unless of course by historical rates you mean what happened between June 2011 and January 2013.

[sharky101]

Holy dump batman!  Someone is trying to start a panic.

Just got a Mail from Havelock that there has been trading activity, and I was like... "Wait a minute, my only open order is that one slightly above IPO prices"... Holy cow! But thanks, anonymous donor, I was super mad I missed last weeks selloff to IPO levels!

I had one of those. Wondering if I should be buying. Time will tell.

[Puppet]

So the graphs are done assuming a static difficulty for 2 years. Then of course it looks like you can make a profit, duh.

It doesnt assume any difficulty, it calculates the difficulty at which point (industrial scale) miners stop being profitable with the listed assumptions.

[NotLambchop]

Some resistance at .1001

[funkymunky]

I really wasn't expecting a price drop of that magnitude 

[hdbuck]

Havelock, or when 300ish shares out of 400 000 is enough to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt.
so much for teh liquidity..


ps: 300/400 000 = 0,075% -> sell sell sell

[laustcozz]

Havelock, or when 300ish shares out of 400 000 is enough to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt.
so much for teh liquidity..


ps: 300/400 000 = 0,075% -> sell sell sell

It wasn't 300 in a day or an hour.  It was hundreds in a second.  Considering how thin the market is that type of sell is pretty ridiculous.

[hdbuck]

Havelock, or when 300ish shares out of 400 000 is enough to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt.
so much for teh liquidity..


ps: 300/400 000 = 0,075% -> sell sell sell

It wasn't 300 in a day or an hour.  It was hundreds in a second.  Considering how thin the market is that type of sell is pretty ridiculous.

not sure whats your point, it was 299 shares. anyway i was being sarcarstic..

Some resistance at .1001

[xhomerx10]

Doesn't matter what the J/GH is if you can never recover the capital cost of miners even with free electricity, which is where bitcoin mining stands right now.

You couldnt be more wrong. Here is a chart for you:



It shows the network speed where miners would break even after 2 years using the listed assumed variables. Even  in the current climate and with current efficiency, we are no were near where (industrial) mining  would not be profitable. And the effect of power efficiency is quite dramatic if you consider reasonable electricity cost price ranges (~0.06 / KWh)

 You have begun with the incorrect assumption that your bitcoin miner will hash at a constant percentage of the network hashing rate for 730 days.  I fail to see the usefulness of your graphs.

[Rival]

Over the last few months I had repeatedly seriously considered boosting my AM position significantly. My failure to act has proven to be a massive boon to my wallet in every case. I wonder how many people are out there like me considering spending fairly large sums on AM, hesitating, and then being rewarded for that hesitation. Each time, it becomes easier to hesitate.

Only FC can break this destructive cycle.

[Fabrizio89]

https://blockchain.info/address/1HtUGfbDcMzTeHWx2Dbgnhc6kYnj1Hp24i
Another 10BTC payed from BTCGuild. ?

[drasted]

https://blockchain.info/address/1HtUGfbDcMzTeHWx2Dbgnhc6kYnj1Hp24i
Another 10BTC payed from BTCGuild. ?

Yeah you can see it's been happening every 2-3 days for about a month.

[hdbuck]

Over the last few months I had repeatedly seriously considered boosting my AM position significantly. My failure to act has proven to be a massive boon to my wallet in every case. I wonder how many people are out there like me considering spending fairly large sums on AM, hesitating, and then being rewarded for that hesitation. Each time, it becomes easier to hesitate.

Only FC can break this destructive cycle.

Yes, only constant dividends will bring a steady share price...

I feel it's just not the time... yet. Not that they dont have cash to redistribute as divs.
First i was pessimistic, but with everything going around BTC and the mining industry, i think the radio silence is exactly on purpose.
FC is in the ASIC mining industry from the very beginning, he surely had the time to weight his mistakes, the competition, the future of the industry.
Now is the time make sure the killing plan is going along.
Now is the time to strengthen your position in AM if you do believe so.

discl: I am.

[funkymunky]

Over the last few months I had repeatedly seriously considered boosting my AM position significantly. My failure to act has proven to be a massive boon to my wallet in every case. I wonder how many people are out there like me considering spending fairly large sums on AM, hesitating, and then being rewarded for that hesitation. Each time, it becomes easier to hesitate.

Only FC can break this destructive cycle.

Yes, only constant dividends will bring a steady share price...

I feel it's just not the time... yet. Not that they dont have cash to redistribute as divs.
First i was pessimistic, but with everything going around BTC and the mining industry, i think the radio silence is exactly on purpose.
FC is in the ASIC mining industry from the very beginning, he surely had the time to weight his mistakes, the competition, the future of the industry.
Now is the time make sure the killing plan is going along.
Now is the time to strengthen your position in AM if you do believe so.

discl: I am.

Me too, hopefully this doesn't backfire...

For any other Security, I wouldn't be so gun ho from being caught up in other mistaken "investments".
But Asicminer from their inception have been different.

[michaelGedi]

Over the last few months I had repeatedly seriously considered boosting my AM position significantly. My failure to act has proven to be a massive boon to my wallet in every case. I wonder how many people are out there like me considering spending fairly large sums on AM, hesitating, and then being rewarded for that hesitation. Each time, it becomes easier to hesitate.

Only FC can break this destructive cycle.

Yes, only constant dividends will bring a steady share price...

I feel it's just not the time... yet. Not that they dont have cash to redistribute as divs.
First i was pessimistic, but with everything going around BTC and the mining industry, i think the radio silence is exactly on purpose.
FC is in the ASIC mining industry from the very beginning, he surely had the time to weight his mistakes, the competition, the future of the industry.
Now is the time make sure the killing plan is going along.
Now is the time to strengthen your position in AM if you do believe so.

discl: I am.

Me too, hopefully this doesn't backfire...

For any other Security, I wouldn't be so gun ho from being caught up in other mistaken "investments".
But Asicminer from their inception have been different.

I already strengthened my position, at 0.6, 0.25, and most recently at 0.18...

the last one was the best..., just before a large drop

[Puppet]

 You have begun with the incorrect assumption that your bitcoin miner will hash at a constant percentage of the network hashing rate for 730 days.  I fail to see the usefulness of your graphs.

It makes no such assumption. As long as the network hashrate is at or below the lines on the chart, at any point in time you could buy a miner and end up breaking even after 2 years, of course constrained by the listed assumptions and the curves themselves, nothing else.  If your point is that after 2 years the network may exceed those lines, thats actually part of the point, but it  requires either changing constraints or someone betting > 2 year.

[rudi]

The first Prismas should get delivered soon. Looking forward to read what people think about them.

[jjdub7]

Lol who's the Robin Hood who threw their 21/21 ask order on the books to trap the bot?  Bravo, very well-mathed.

Also, speaking of addresses, holy smokes:  

https://blockchain.info/tx/a148d24650fc68b46b67c919cce49d2fb4257c345f896d93d15fdf0d8e9ab8fc

And follow to the destination address...the BTC in that transaction (BTC13k) is worth about $4.5 million right now - when are we guessing Gen 4 tape-out will be, again?  The figure is similar to the lump payment made for the production of Gen 3, and it was the first transaction from the multisig wallet to an address other than https://blockchain.info/address/19iVyH1qUxgywY8LJSbpV4VavjZmyuEyxV.

Additionally, anyone else noticing how new transactions from the AM wallet sets start popping up right after large-scale buy runs stop on Bitstamp?  For anyone who's looked into multisig/P2SH transactions, they're generally constrained to the 3-of-3 sig case, and with very few inputs, as isStandard() will reject the transaction as valid but not standard on most mining clients.  Eligius will pick up standard transactions, but then again, Luke also broadcasts his relays.  The transaction above is definitely not standard for P2SH at 7097 bytes (max is 520 bytes, and most of that is taken up by the concatenated pubkey script).  Because the transaction was still included in block 324403 and relayed by 188.165.237.10, is it safe to assume that this block was mined by ASICMINER with the address 1Nd99aNgYWpKkqcqSMgWtdtVDadewAS5F7?

Whoever owns that 1Nd99 address probably also owns the 1AcAj9p6zJn4xLXdvmdiuPCtY7YkBPTAJo address that held a good share of the network for the middle of the year here.  I think this because of this transaction (one of the few sent from 1Nd99): https://blockchain.info/tx/87c1b45c63c4ccf7a85aaed324a872008ef80755c5b3c4eef15627abad482dbd.  Notice that there are inputs sent from both addresses, usually a good indicator that both are under the same entity.