ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[bitsalame]

can you share the spreadsheet?

[Puppet]

But only AM is selling at ~$330/TH. Spondoolies is advertising $650/TH ... for a pre-order. And my understanding is that other producers are even more expensive?

Its not because they are asking that much to individual miners and their costs are anything like that.
Even so, if we were to calculate with $700/TH, we get this:

[Puppet]

can you share the spreadsheet?

https://mega.co.nz/#!dBEHFSLJ!-iNog5E3QldnbMDKjkOYgf6yoWVojhkYQ6Aq2F-h9_s

[rudi]

Thanks, very interesting.

[MrTeal]

can you share the spreadsheet?

https://mega.co.nz/#!dBEHFSLJ!-iNog5E3QldnbMDKjkOYgf6yoWVojhkYQ6Aq2F-h9_s

ASICMiner isn't selling at $330/TH/s. Their product is $330/TH/s, but that's not an installed and hashing price.

That's a little pessimistic in some ways, and optimistic in others.

First, I'd set the break even period to ~650 days, which is about 93 weeks. That's about the time the block reward is going to drop to 12.5BTC, which baring a major shift in the price or hashrate will make everything unprofitable.

If price doesn't move, I would suspect we would see all the hardware in the pipe get flushed, but not a lot of new wafer starts after that. It's already incredibly tough to move hardware, and without pre-orders investing the money in 500PH/s worth of wafers is quite risky if you're looking to sell them at close to marginal cost. My gut is that baring price movement we see another doubling to ~500PH/s in the next few months, and then maybe some slow movement from there. Going much beyond 600PH/s or so is going to take someone producing an awesome new ASIC that can get decently better than 0.5J/GH and $250/TH/s though, IMO.

[laustcozz]

Holy dump batman!  Someone is trying to start a panic.

[sharky101]

Holy dump batman!  Someone is trying to start a panic.

Trading in the dark. Is it still Chinese holidays?

[Bonam]

Doesn't matter what the J/GH is if you can never recover the capital cost of miners even with free electricity, which is where bitcoin mining stands right now.

You couldnt be more wrong. Here is a chart for you:



It shows the network speed where miners would break even after 2 years using the listed assumed variables. Even  in the current climate and with current efficiency, we are no were near where (industrial) mining  would not be profitable. And the effect of power efficiency is quite dramatic if you consider reasonable electricity cost price ranges (~0.06 / KWh)

What % difficulty increase per period are you assuming in your calculations?

[jimmothy]

Doesn't matter what the J/GH is if you can never recover the capital cost of miners even with free electricity, which is where bitcoin mining stands right now.

You couldnt be more wrong. Here is a chart for you:



It shows the network speed where miners would break even after 2 years using the listed assumed variables. Even  in the current climate and with current efficiency, we are no were near where (industrial) mining  would not be profitable. And the effect of power efficiency is quite dramatic if you consider reasonable electricity cost price ranges (~0.06 / KWh)

What % difficulty increase per period are you assuming in your calculations?

It's not a difficulty prediction tool, it's an endgame estimation tool.

If we know the $/gh, w/gh, and $/kwh we can estimate how much hashrate it would take before nobody could afford to continue adding hashing power. (but not when or at what rate)

We don't know the variable so it's only a guess but his point is clear that J/GH does make a huge difference.

[FUR11]

Holy dump batman!  Someone is trying to start a panic.

Just got a Mail from Havelock that there has been trading activity, and I was like... "Wait a minute, my only open order is that one slightly above IPO prices"... Holy cow! But thanks, anonymous donor, I was super mad I missed last weeks selloff to IPO levels!

[Bonam]

It's not a difficulty prediction tool, it's an endgame estimation tool.

If we know the $/gh, w/gh, and $/kwh we can estimate how much hashrate it would take before nobody could afford to continue adding hashing power. (but not when or at what rate)

We don't know the variable so it's only a guess but his point is clear that J/GH does make a huge difference.

So the graphs are done assuming a static difficulty for 2 years. Then of course it looks like you can make a profit, duh. When I say it is difficult to even recover capital costs of hardware, what I mean is given that you buy the hardware at a specific point in time, and then it mines in an environment where difficulty continues to rise at the historical rate. You know, reality.

[MrTeal]

It's not a difficulty prediction tool, it's an endgame estimation tool.

If we know the $/gh, w/gh, and $/kwh we can estimate how much hashrate it would take before nobody could afford to continue adding hashing power. (but not when or at what rate)

We don't know the variable so it's only a guess but his point is clear that J/GH does make a huge difference.

So the graphs are done assuming a static difficulty for 2 years. Then of course it looks like you can make a profit, duh. When I say it is difficult to even recover capital costs of hardware, what I mean is given that you buy the hardware at a specific point in time, and then it mines in an environment where difficulty continues to rise at the historical rate. You know, reality.

When you cannot recover your initial investment within two years with cheap power and the most efficient and lowest cost hardware on the market, difficulty will not rise at the historical rates.

Unless of course by historical rates you mean what happened between June 2011 and January 2013.

[sharky101]

Holy dump batman!  Someone is trying to start a panic.

Just got a Mail from Havelock that there has been trading activity, and I was like... "Wait a minute, my only open order is that one slightly above IPO prices"... Holy cow! But thanks, anonymous donor, I was super mad I missed last weeks selloff to IPO levels!

I had one of those. Wondering if I should be buying. Time will tell.

[Puppet]

So the graphs are done assuming a static difficulty for 2 years. Then of course it looks like you can make a profit, duh.

It doesnt assume any difficulty, it calculates the difficulty at which point (industrial scale) miners stop being profitable with the listed assumptions.

[NotLambchop]

Some resistance at .1001

[funkymunky]

I really wasn't expecting a price drop of that magnitude 

[hdbuck]

Havelock, or when 300ish shares out of 400 000 is enough to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt.
so much for teh liquidity..


ps: 300/400 000 = 0,075% -> sell sell sell

[laustcozz]

Havelock, or when 300ish shares out of 400 000 is enough to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt.
so much for teh liquidity..


ps: 300/400 000 = 0,075% -> sell sell sell

It wasn't 300 in a day or an hour.  It was hundreds in a second.  Considering how thin the market is that type of sell is pretty ridiculous.

[hdbuck]

Havelock, or when 300ish shares out of 400 000 is enough to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt.
so much for teh liquidity..


ps: 300/400 000 = 0,075% -> sell sell sell

It wasn't 300 in a day or an hour.  It was hundreds in a second.  Considering how thin the market is that type of sell is pretty ridiculous.

not sure whats your point, it was 299 shares. anyway i was being sarcarstic..

Some resistance at .1001

[xhomerx10]

Doesn't matter what the J/GH is if you can never recover the capital cost of miners even with free electricity, which is where bitcoin mining stands right now.

You couldnt be more wrong. Here is a chart for you:



It shows the network speed where miners would break even after 2 years using the listed assumed variables. Even  in the current climate and with current efficiency, we are no were near where (industrial) mining  would not be profitable. And the effect of power efficiency is quite dramatic if you consider reasonable electricity cost price ranges (~0.06 / KWh)

 You have begun with the incorrect assumption that your bitcoin miner will hash at a constant percentage of the network hashing rate for 730 days.  I fail to see the usefulness of your graphs.