ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Eric Muyser]

How long will it take to hit 5 again? Suggestions?

in about 15 minutes, cause everyone got their dividends and are reinvesting, now.

bear trap sprung!

Nah, no way we're going over 5. We touched base with 5.1 and it wasn't meant to be this week. We're looking at 4.3-4.6 for a while. Awaiting blade sales.

[canth]

How long will it take to hit 5 again? Suggestions?

in about 15 minutes, cause everyone got their dividends and are reinvesting, now.

bear trap sprung!

Nah, no way we're going over 5. We touched base with 5.1 and it wasn't meant to be this week. We're looking at 4.3-4.6 for a while. Awaiting blade sales.

You mean, no way we're logically going over 5. Market sentiment will be what it is and as we all continue to discuss (lament?) - there are few competing investments that offer an alternative. I wouldn't be surprised if it stays in the low 4s or goes right back to 5.

[velacreations]

Nah, no way we're going over 5. We touched base with 5.1 and it wasn't meant to be this week. We're looking at 4.3-4.6 for a while. Awaiting blade sales.

the reasoning behind your target of 4.6 doesn't really hold.  Dividend as considerably lower last week, yet we went all the way to 5.1.

120d average dividend is still over 30% at 4.7.  I think if you are planning for prices to site at 4.6, you'll be surprised at what they will be at this time tomorrow.

[Eric Muyser]

Nah, no way we're going over 5. We touched base with 5.1 and it wasn't meant to be this week. We're looking at 4.3-4.6 for a while. Awaiting blade sales.

the reasoning behind your target of 4.6 doesn't really hold.  Dividend as considerably lower last week, yet we went all the way to 5.1.

People were expecting an epic dividend. 0.0035 is "considerably lower"? This week and last week are nearly the same. We went to 5.1 because we didn't know what it would be and it was hyped as being epic. I tried to warn caution that at 5 BTC we should be getting a 0.03 dividend or it's unlikely to stick.

Sure, I could be trying to put a bear spin on it so I can pick up cheaper shares. People will have to trust that I am not, and am just trying to speak a bit of reason so we don't increase the volatility even more. That was the largest drop and it's a bit shocking and not desirable to repeat. You said yourself you didn't expect 4.25. That's a 0.92 BTC jump from the high. That's not peanuts and was probably difficult to watch for some people. Yet here you are, saying to "buy it now", "it'll be at 5 BTC in 5 minutes". "It'll settle at 5" then 5 mins later "It'll tell at 4.8" then 5 mins later...?? Someone needs to have a word of caution with bubble boy statements like that.

You just paid 4.7 BTC in the direct share auction you won, so you have an interest in not seeing it fall below that until you can get it to a PT. I know the feeling... I breathed a sigh of relief when I lost the bid at 4.6

There's no evidence that friedcat will post for sure. There's no reason to value it above 5 BTC right now. Nothing has changed or given additional incentive. Just a normal dividend. Staying at 5 BTC, as it was for a while, that's fine. Why above? Zzz.

Additionally, even if blades are sold on the 10th as mentioned, that won't be part of the next dividend, so we have time to cool off anyway.

That said, yall should be happy with 0.022 dividend, or even 0.02, really, no reason to panic IMO. Just hold tight and wait for either friedcat or blade sales.

[freedomno1]

Well the true-wall is somewhere between 2.5 and here

Anyways wonder if tomorrow is Friedcat day

[Birdy]

Actually the crash happened exactly after the moment a big dump on Gox happened, so I'm not sure if dividends are to blame for that.

[Eric Muyser]

Actually the crash happened exactly after the moment a big dump on Gox happened, so I'm not sure if dividends are to blame for that.

That surely didn't help. Could be both. Amazing dividend would be an incentive not to react to Gox crashing.

[TsuyokuNaritai]

In case you needed any more reasons to stock up on ASICMiner shares, here's the Butterfly Labs Mini Rig review.

[velacreations]

Nah, no way we're going over 5. We touched base with 5.1 and it wasn't meant to be this week. We're looking at 4.3-4.6 for a while. Awaiting blade sales.

the reasoning behind your target of 4.6 doesn't really hold.  Dividend as considerably lower last week, yet we went all the way to 5.1.

People were expecting an epic dividend. 0.0035 is "considerably lower"? This week and last week are nearly the same. We went to 5.1 because we didn't know what it would be and it was hyped as being epic. I tried to warn caution that at 5 BTC we should be getting a 0.03 dividend or it's unlikely to stick.

this week's dividend was 27% higher than last week.  I don't know who actually expected a .035 dividend, most of us (including me) have been saying .025.  Now, we certainly didn't rule it out going higher, but it's not like it was a disappointment.

Still last week's dividend was .018, this week is .023.  We went to 5.1 knowing the dividend had been .018.  The 120d average is still a ways above 30% APR.

We will see what happens, but I think it is quite clear that settling at 4.6 is a bit low, especially with 4.8 on the exchange right now.

I find it funny that you are bearish, now, using the same arguments I was when the dividend dropped 2 weeks ago.  It's funny how things change... 

[KarmaShark]

I'll be back in Vancouver in a week, ya boys Where are you KarmaShark?

Waterloo, ON, right down the road from BlackBerry HQ.


Are you over in Japan on work? I want to go back sometime soon, what a blast. Definitely feeling the AM Canuck meet-up, we are amazingly well represented here gentlemen.

[Diamondstarfall]

If anyone is need of direct ASICMINER shares I still have some left for sale.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=248612.0
friedcat has already confirmed and I'm looking to sell them soon to order a gift.

The earliest bidders has dropped out since the price droped below 4.8BTC. I will accept current market price offers good for 3 hours once we have agreed on a price. Currently asking ~4.65BTC/share

[deadgiveaway]

This is simple people:

Asicminer shares are bought and sold the day of the dividend. This causes people to chase the highest bid as soon as they receive their dividends. All they want is the dividends. They buy shares up to whatever price they can afford them up to dividend day. Because these dividends were weaker than their unfounded dreams and dreamers had informed them, they immediately lost interest. Of course, that's a very narrow way to look at an investment. Over time, if/when people discover this is something that is better to hold than to trade (which is achieved by the company providing consistent performance), then there will be a more higher more stable share price when that logic finally occurs to the average cheapo who invested in ASICM this week.

[aahzmundus]

So... I got another div from friedcat!  http://blockchain.info/tx/e139fe3523379df036871317b9515f9c8e8a1798e929c99fe7db4709562bcf5c

Looks like he did the share transfers for the 1,000 auction and then paid divs for them... SWEET

[ThickAsThieves]

So... I got another div from friedcat!  http://blockchain.info/tx/e139fe3523379df036871317b9515f9c8e8a1798e929c99fe7db4709562bcf5c

Looks like he did the share transfers for the 1,000 auction and then paid divs for them... SWEET

You sure that wasn't from Jutarul?

[velacreations]

So... I got another div from friedcat!  http://blockchain.info/tx/e139fe3523379df036871317b9515f9c8e8a1798e929c99fe7db4709562bcf5c

Looks like he did the share transfers for the 1,000 auction and then paid divs for them... SWEET

You sure that wasn't from Jutarul?

Yeah, I got mine from Jutarul for those shares...

[MikkisJ]

Are they already selling block erupter blades?

[Eric Muyser]

this week's dividend was 27% higher than last week.  I don't know who actually expected a .035 dividend, most of us (including me) have been saying .025.  Now, we certainly didn't rule it out going higher, but it's not like it was a disappointment.

Still last week's dividend was .018, this week is .023.  We went to 5.1 knowing the dividend had been .018.  The 120d average is still a ways above 30% APR.

We will see what happens, but I think it is quite clear that settling at 4.6 is a bit low, especially with 4.8 on the exchange right now.

I find it funny that you are bearish, now, using the same arguments I was when the dividend dropped 2 weeks ago.  It's funny how things change...  

I'm not bearish. I'm don't fucking move this could go either way-ish until we get news or sales. Read the following quote. You say you expect 5 btc and 0.03. We got 0.022. You say "30% is appropriate rate." We're at 4.5, which is what I also say in the quote, which is 30%. Since then I've been adding word of caution we needed 0.025, which we fell short of the same amount we're up since last week. Read my posts, I haven't been pushing it, and said it should hold back, because even though I thought 0.03-0.04 was a possibility, it could be anything. Why are you pushing 5? Your own calculation doesn't allow for it. Heck, your own calculations below put it at 3.6 BTC. Sigh, when'd you get so bubbly? It's not even justified reasoning, it's just "friedcat will post! it'll go back! buy now!" with some basically outright lie that the last was 4.9 when that was just the ask.

I think it'll be at least a few months, when the rest of the ASICs are expected to "catch up," before people trust AM enough for 15% yearly. For now, 4.5-5 is good enough value to hold, and psychological place to hover until it eventually goes to 10 in the long term.

that depends a lot on the dividends.  If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably.  Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer.

At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc
At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc
At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc

I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks.

By the way take a look at where we are. 4.4 - 4.6. Well, actually someone just sold into them while I was typing this and we're at 4.25 now.

[daemondazz]

Are they already selling block erupter blades?

No, USB Erupters.

[SOSLOVE868]

this week's dividend was 27% higher than last week.  I don't know who actually expected a .035 dividend, most of us (including me) have been saying .025.  Now, we certainly didn't rule it out going higher, but it's not like it was a disappointment.

Still last week's dividend was .018, this week is .023.  We went to 5.1 knowing the dividend had been .018.  The 120d average is still a ways above 30% APR.

We will see what happens, but I think it is quite clear that settling at 4.6 is a bit low, especially with 4.8 on the exchange right now.

I find it funny that you are bearish, now, using the same arguments I was when the dividend dropped 2 weeks ago.  It's funny how things change...  

I'm not bearish. I'm don't fucking move this could go either way-ish until we get news or sales. Read the following quote. You say you expect 5 btc and 0.03. We got 0.022. You say "30% is appropriate rate." We're at 4.5, which is what I also say in the quote, which is 30%. Since then I've been adding word of caution we needed 0.025, which we fell short of the same amount we're up since last week. Read my posts, I haven't been pushing it, and said it should hold back, because even though I thought 0.03-0.04 was a possibility, it could be anything. Why are you pushing 5? Your own calculation doesn't allow for it. Heck, your own calculations below put it at 3.6 BTC. Sigh, when'd you get so bubbly? It's not even justified reasoning, it's just "friedcat will post! it'll go back! buy now!" with some basically outright lie that the last was 4.9 when that was just the ask.

I think it'll be at least a few months, when the rest of the ASICs are expected to "catch up," before people trust AM enough for 15% yearly. For now, 4.5-5 is good enough value to hold, and psychological place to hover until it eventually goes to 10 in the long term.

that depends a lot on the dividends.  If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably.  Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer.

At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc
At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc
At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc

I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks.

By the way take a look at where we are. 4.4 - 4.6. Well, actually someone just sold into them while I was typing this and we're at 4.25 now.

Everytime BTC/USD price suddenly big decrease that will causing panic sell of AM....normally share price will be back in later ,if you got free coin now, you should take this opportunity.

Exchange rate dump from 90 to 76 for past several hours and now is around 80...this pretty scary....When will we killed this damn volatility.....I ask myself...

[joele]

Just one new news from friedcat everything will go up again.