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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3914548 times)
runeks
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June 30, 2013, 01:46:38 PM
 #8841

I just did some statistics on the number of transactions included in ASICMiner blocks, compared to other miners' blocks:

Code:
ASICMiner stats:
Average transaction count per block: 198.0
Median transaction count: 132
Maximum number of transactions in a block: 1323
Other blocks stats:
Average transaction count per block: 302.3
Median transaction count: 262
Maximum number of transactions in a block: 1333

Can anyone explain this? It seems ASICMiner blocks, on average, only contain 65% of the number of transactions that other blocks contain.

Has ASICMiner commented on this?

Given the talk a few weeks ago about transactions becoming more important as time goes on, I'm curious about this as well.

What time period do these stats cover?
They cover from the beginning ASICMiner started solo mining, which is from the following block and up to right now. https://blockchain.info/block-index/383941/000000000000010c9335c90f6e1f2d2a9af73ca078d660c98988234309b9dba3

So about the last six weeks.
Come to think of it, it could just bet that ASICMiner has chosen not to include transactions with a fee less than X, while other miners include low-fee transactions, and even no-fee transactions.
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Eric Muyser
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June 30, 2013, 01:52:52 PM
 #8842

ASICM can probably get away with 15% yielding dividends (which is considered low for BTC investments) because they have a solid history, are absolutely huge in terms of market cap, and have provided stable dividends.

In other words, people are happy to opt for smaller dividend on a much lower risk company.

I think it'll be at least a few months, when the rest of the ASICs are expected to "catch up," before people trust AM enough for 15% yearly. For now, 4.5-5 is good enough value to hold, and psychological place to hover until it eventually goes to 10 in the long term.

@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
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June 30, 2013, 02:28:19 PM
 #8843

I think it'll be at least a few months, when the rest of the ASICs are expected to "catch up," before people trust AM enough for 15% yearly. For now, 4.5-5 is good enough value to hold, and psychological place to hover until it eventually goes to 10 in the long term.

that depends a lot on the dividends.  If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably.  Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer.

At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc
At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc
At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc

I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks.

tinus42
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June 30, 2013, 02:54:03 PM
 #8844

I think it'll be at least a few months, when the rest of the ASICs are expected to "catch up," before people trust AM enough for 15% yearly. For now, 4.5-5 is good enough value to hold, and psychological place to hover until it eventually goes to 10 in the long term.

that depends a lot on the dividends.  If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably.  Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer.

At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc
At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc
At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc

I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks.


You should consider cashing out a bit of your investment as you went full retard buying shares. Don't bet the farm on AM. Results from the past are no prediction for the future.
Eric Muyser
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June 30, 2013, 02:57:41 PM
 #8845

I think it'll be at least a few months, when the rest of the ASICs are expected to "catch up," before people trust AM enough for 15% yearly. For now, 4.5-5 is good enough value to hold, and psychological place to hover until it eventually goes to 10 in the long term.

that depends a lot on the dividends.  If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably.  Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer.

At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc
At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc
At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc

I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks.


You should consider cashing out a bit of your investment as you went full retard buying shares. Don't bet the farm on AM. Results from the past are no prediction for the future.



@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
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June 30, 2013, 02:59:08 PM
 #8846

Damn it, I wish ASICMiner would stabilize for a few days so I didn't have to keep updating my offer to buy puts  Angry

OK, I'm currently offering to buy either of the following two options:

(I am BUYING put options: you write them!)

Strike: 2.7 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC

OR

Strike: 3.0 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.25 BTC

Cheers,

Vycid

(BTCT only!)

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June 30, 2013, 03:01:49 PM
 #8847

Damn it, I wish ASICMiner would stabilize for a few days so I didn't have to keep updating my offer to buy puts  Angry

OK, I'm currently offering to buy either of the following two options:

(I am BUYING put options: you write them!)

Strike: 2.7 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC

OR

Strike: 3.0 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.25 BTC

Cheers,

Vycid

Is this no longer valid?

Update:

I will immediately purchase ASICMiner puts expiring September 1st, with a strike of 1.8BTC, and a premium of 0.14BTC.

3 BTC limit.


 Grin
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June 30, 2013, 03:04:49 PM
 #8848

Damn it, I wish ASICMiner would stabilize for a few days so I didn't have to keep updating my offer to buy puts  Angry

OK, I'm currently offering to buy either of the following two options:

(I am BUYING put options: you write them!)

Strike: 2.7 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC

OR

Strike: 3.0 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.25 BTC

Cheers,

Vycid

Is this no longer valid?

Update:

I will immediately purchase ASICMiner puts expiring September 1st, with a strike of 1.8BTC, and a premium of 0.14BTC.

3 BTC limit.


 Grin

Heh, no. I own about ten of those, too. They make me a little sad when I open up BTCT  Sad

Eric Muyser
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June 30, 2013, 03:07:10 PM
 #8849

Damn it, I wish ASICMiner would stabilize for a few days so I didn't have to keep updating my offer to buy puts  Angry

OK, I'm currently offering to buy either of the following two options:

(I am BUYING put options: you write them!)

Strike: 2.7 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC

OR

Strike: 3.0 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.25 BTC

Cheers,

Vycid

Is this no longer valid?

Update:

I will immediately purchase ASICMiner puts expiring September 1st, with a strike of 1.8BTC, and a premium of 0.14BTC.

3 BTC limit.


 Grin

Heh, no. I own about ten of those, too. They make me a little sad when I open up BTCT  Sad

Shouldn't make you sad. Protecting yourself on the way up. You're safe, we're not. That's why you keep buying them.

@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
Vycid
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June 30, 2013, 03:15:37 PM
 #8850

Damn it, I wish ASICMiner would stabilize for a few days so I didn't have to keep updating my offer to buy puts  Angry

OK, I'm currently offering to buy either of the following two options:

(I am BUYING put options: you write them!)

Strike: 2.7 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC

OR

Strike: 3.0 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.25 BTC

Cheers,

Vycid

Is this no longer valid?

Update:

I will immediately purchase ASICMiner puts expiring September 1st, with a strike of 1.8BTC, and a premium of 0.14BTC.

3 BTC limit.


 Grin

Heh, no. I own about ten of those, too. They make me a little sad when I open up BTCT  Sad

Shouldn't make you sad. Protecting yourself on the way up. You're safe, we're not. That's why you keep buying them.

Right, but if I'm buying puts closer to 3.0 BTC (I've actually been buying the whole way up: 2.2, 2.5, now 2.7 and 3.0) then my 1.8 BTC puts are worthless.

Eric Muyser
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June 30, 2013, 03:17:20 PM
 #8851

Damn it, I wish ASICMiner would stabilize for a few days so I didn't have to keep updating my offer to buy puts  Angry

OK, I'm currently offering to buy either of the following two options:

(I am BUYING put options: you write them!)

Strike: 2.7 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC

OR

Strike: 3.0 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.25 BTC

Cheers,

Vycid

Is this no longer valid?

Update:

I will immediately purchase ASICMiner puts expiring September 1st, with a strike of 1.8BTC, and a premium of 0.14BTC.

3 BTC limit.


 Grin

Heh, no. I own about ten of those, too. They make me a little sad when I open up BTCT  Sad

Shouldn't make you sad. Protecting yourself on the way up. You're safe, we're not. That's why you keep buying them.

Right, but if I'm buying puts closer to 3.0 BTC (I've actually been buying the whole way up: 2.2, 2.5, now 2.7 and 3.0) then my 1.8 BTC puts are worthless.

Not worthless if AM goes to 0.1 BTC. It's all about hindsight.

@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
Vycid
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June 30, 2013, 03:26:20 PM
 #8852

Not worthless if AM goes to 0.1 BTC. It's all about hindsight.

Fair enough. I guess I should say that my 1.8 puts are worth much less than 0.14 BTC now, not that they're worthless. My AM shares make up for that though  Smiley

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June 30, 2013, 03:37:14 PM
 #8853

AM are currently killing the competition:

------------------
Known Blocks.
Relayed By   count
ASICMiner   44
BTC Guild   27
Slush   25
------------------

I can see AM reaching and maintaining 30% hashing rate in the next 12 months, and lots of hardware sales on top.

I still believe there is some room for rational increase in share price, 5-6 BTC.

Beyond that, irrational exuberance could well drive the price up towards 10. To quote Alexander Elder:

"When outsiders & latecomers start making lots of money, the market is near the top"

I believe we are just about to enter the phase where the outsiders & latecomers join in. Let the bubble fun and games begin!!
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June 30, 2013, 03:39:54 PM
 #8854

PRELIMINARY UPDATE

I have submitted the top questions from our poll to Friedcat.

I decided to make the #1 question a request for him to confirm the recent news from rockxie's presentation, and to summarize the plans for the mining farm and ne "Mini Blade".

The other two questions were asking when the first financial report will be, and whether Bitfountain can provide an official hashrate meter for the farm, or official updates about how many hashes they have online.

~TAT
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June 30, 2013, 03:44:44 PM
 #8855

that depends a lot on the dividends.  If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably.  Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer.

At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc
At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc
At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc

I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks.


You should consider cashing out a bit of your investment as you went full retard buying shares. Don't bet the farm on AM. Results from the past are no prediction for the future.


well, I am holding since .4

I still think my analysis is sound.  If AM can stay close to .03 btc/week for the next few weeks, we'll likely see share prices over 5.

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June 30, 2013, 04:14:56 PM
 #8856

...

Strike: 3.3 BTC
Premium: 0.3 BTC
Exp: 90 days.

Strange Vlad
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June 30, 2013, 04:15:21 PM
 #8857

I just did some statistics on the number of transactions included in ASICMiner blocks, compared to other miners' blocks:

Code:
ASICMiner stats:
Average transaction count per block: 198.0
Median transaction count: 132
Maximum number of transactions in a block: 1323
Other blocks stats:
Average transaction count per block: 302.3
Median transaction count: 262
Maximum number of transactions in a block: 1333

Can anyone explain this? It seems ASICMiner blocks, on average, only contain 65% of the number of transactions that other blocks contain.

Has ASICMiner commented on this?

Given the talk a few weeks ago about transactions becoming more important as time goes on, I'm curious about this as well.

What time period do these stats cover?
They cover from the beginning ASICMiner started solo mining, which is from the following block and up to right now. https://blockchain.info/block-index/383941/000000000000010c9335c90f6e1f2d2a9af73ca078d660c98988234309b9dba3

So about the last six weeks.
Come to think of it, it could just bet that ASICMiner has chosen not to include transactions with a fee less than X, while other miners include low-fee transactions, and even no-fee transactions.

And that's right thing to do.  I hope other pools (and solominers, if any) will also adopt stricter fee policies soon, for the safety of the network.

Do not try and bend the spoon. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. There is no spoon. Then you'll see, that it is not the spoon that bends, it is only yourself.
1CdVTkA288cd3m1jkdqPjUfhQ5ebei8gVT
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June 30, 2013, 04:21:15 PM
 #8858

PRELIMINARY UPDATE

I have submitted the top questions from our poll to Friedcat.

I decided to make the #1 question a request for him to confirm the recent news from rockxie's presentation, and to summarize the plans for the mining farm and ne "Mini Blade".

The other two questions were asking when the first financial report will be, and whether Bitfountain can provide an official hashrate meter for the farm, or official updates about how many hashes they have online.

~TAT

Awesome!

Making Apps and Websites for people. I charge reasonable rates ($30-40/hour in BTC).
TECHICENINE
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June 30, 2013, 04:22:38 PM
Last edit: June 30, 2013, 04:33:17 PM by TECHICENINE
 #8859

Damn it, I wish ASICMiner would stabilize for a few days so I didn't have to keep updating my offer to buy puts  Angry

OK, I'm currently offering to buy either of the following two options:

(I am BUYING put options: you write them!)

Strike: 2.7 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC

OR

Strike: 3.0 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.25 BTC

Cheers,

Vycid

(BTCT only!)

PM me your offer I got the link-"virtual options"-=PUTS look good buy if>weekend@$BTCurnies' ..thanks
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June 30, 2013, 04:38:13 PM
 #8860

PRELIMINARY UPDATE

I have submitted the top questions from our poll to Friedcat.

I decided to make the #1 question a request for him to confirm the recent news from rockxie's presentation, and to summarize the plans for the mining farm and ne "Mini Blade".

The other two questions were asking when the first financial report will be, and whether Bitfountain can provide an official hashrate meter for the farm, or official updates about how many hashes they have online.

~TAT


what are you asking me..thanks
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