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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3914565 times)
canth
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July 01, 2013, 01:05:46 AM
 #8901

the yield on ASICMiner is still **very very very** high compared to other classes of assets one could hold. It is very likely that the share price keep increasing until the yield is 1% or 2% a year, more in line with other kinds of assets.

There are no ex-dividend days on the exchanges, and similarly one could leverage up and get 4, 8 or 16% yields no matter how low the yield went.

I think expecting the share price to go up till we are at a 1% APR is delusional.  I am a bull on AM and in Bitcoin in general... but if I go below what I can get from traditional investments, I think I may cash out some holdings.  The reason APR is so high is that AM could disappear with little recourse for many investors.  I do not believe this will happen, i think friedcat managing a successful business in this space that is highly trusted will be more profitable long term for him then theft, which is why I accept the risk.

If we get down to <10% apr, you will see people exiting.

Now if you are saying us getting to that kind of yield after bitcoin is in mass adoption and the risk associated with holding bitcoin is mostly gone... well that is a different story.

+1.  For 1% APR, you can have your money sitting in a bank with FDIC insurance. For an unregulated investment in "shares" in a company with < 1 year of profitability, people are going to expect a significantly better return. Anything less than 10-15% is going to clear out a lot of investors.

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jc328
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July 01, 2013, 01:08:30 AM
 #8902

the yield on ASICMiner is still **very very very** high compared to other classes of assets one could hold. It is very likely that the share price keep increasing until the yield is 1% or 2% a year, more in line with other kinds of assets.

There are no ex-dividend days on the exchanges, and similarly one could leverage up and get 4, 8 or 16% yields no matter how low the yield went.

I think expecting the share price to go up till we are at a 1% APR is delusional.  I am a bull on AM and in Bitcoin in general... but if I go below what I can get from traditional investments, I think I may cash out some holdings.  The reason APR is so high is that AM could disappear with little recourse for many investors.  I do not believe this will happen, i think friedcat managing a successful business in this space that is highly trusted will be more profitable long term for him then theft, which is why I accept the risk.

If we get down to <10% apr, you will see people exiting.

Now if you are saying us getting to that kind of yield after bitcoin is in mass adoption and the risk associated with holding bitcoin is mostly gone... well that is a different story.

My thoughts exactly.  1%?  If we are to consider that you are a rational investor who would like the least amount of risk with the highest return, you'd lean towards many other investments at that rate.  My personal tipping point would be roughly around 15%.  Not many standard investments can reach that rate of annual return
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July 01, 2013, 01:21:08 AM
 #8903

I posted this already, but I think 30% is the point where things change for AM.  Above 30% APR, buy and hold.  Below 30%, look to sell.

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July 01, 2013, 01:41:15 AM
 #8904

I posted this already, but I think 30% is the point where things change for AM.  Above 30% APR, buy and hold.  Below 30%, look to sell.

I think the number of investors comfortable under 30% is higher than those willing to sell at 30%.  We'll see high teens before this stabilizes.

Just my 2c
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July 01, 2013, 02:22:00 AM
 #8905

When Juratul puts a wall up thats where we will stay  Grin
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July 01, 2013, 02:28:08 AM
 #8906

When Juratul puts a wall up thats where we will stay  Grin

There is more then just Juratul... Ineedausername used to have a lot of shares, though he sold out in many waves of auctions.  I imagine he still has quite a few stocked up.  There are other large (over 1k) investors as well that I do not know the names of.  What I do know is that I myself am around ~50 on the list for most shares held...

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July 01, 2013, 02:33:31 AM
 #8907

When Juratul puts a wall up thats where we will stay  Grin

There is more then just Juratul... Ineedausername used to have a lot of shares, though he sold out in many waves of auctions.  I imagine he still has quite a few stocked up.  There are other large (over 1k) investors as well that I do not know the names of.  What I do know is that I myself am around ~50 on the list for most shares held...

Edited to when a wall feels like appearing  Wink
Or BitFountain feels like it

Wonder when Friedcat response is due

PRELIMINARY UPDATE

I have submitted the top questions from our poll to Friedcat.

I decided to make the #1 question a request for him to confirm the recent news from rockxie's presentation, and to summarize the plans for the mining farm and ne "Mini Blade".

The other two questions were asking when the first financial report will be, and whether Bitfountain can provide an official hashrate meter for the farm, or official updates about how many hashes they have online.

~TAT
Franktank
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July 01, 2013, 02:38:31 AM
 #8908

Ok Edited to when a giant wall feels like appearing  Wink
Or BitFountain feels like it

Wonder when Friedcat response is due

Since it's Friedcat, whenever he damn feels like it. He has that liberty, he's earned it.
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July 01, 2013, 02:39:10 AM
 #8909

Ok Edited to when a giant wall feels like appearing  Wink
Or BitFountain feels like it

Wonder when Friedcat response is due

Since it's Friedcat, whenever he damn feels like it. He has that liberty, he's earned it.

True enough I don't mind waiting  Cheesy
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July 01, 2013, 03:06:51 AM
 #8910

I posted this already, but I think 30% is the point where things change for AM.  Above 30% APR, buy and hold.  Below 30%, look to sell.

I think the number of investors comfortable under 30% is higher than those willing to sell at 30%.  We'll see high teens before this stabilizes.

Just my 2c

yeah, could be, but I think there are a few other investment for around 25% that are probably less risk.

empoweoqwj
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July 01, 2013, 03:24:52 AM
 #8911

I think his posts are hilarious

They become funnier when you ignore him. Then you just get to see his "highlight posts" via other people quoting him  Grin

Now this share is getting really hot you'll have loads of "bubble boys" in here talking equal nonsense, ignore them all and watch the share price keep rising.
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July 01, 2013, 03:56:29 AM
 #8912

I posted this already, but I think 30% is the point where things change for AM.  Above 30% APR, buy and hold.  Below 30%, look to sell.

I think the number of investors comfortable under 30% is higher than those willing to sell at 30%.  We'll see high teens before this stabilizes.

Just my 2c

yeah, could be, but I think there are a few other investment for around 25% that are probably less risk.

which are?  Wink
velacreations
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July 01, 2013, 04:16:23 AM
 #8913

yeah, could be, but I think there are a few other investment for around 25% that are probably less risk.

which are?  Wink
coinlenders comes to mind

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July 01, 2013, 04:20:29 AM
 #8914

yeah, could be, but I think there are a few other investment for around 25% that are probably less risk.

which are?  Wink
coinlenders comes to mind

Just dice if someone really sucks at gambling  Cheesy
Got to wait for a whale
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July 01, 2013, 04:32:24 AM
 #8915

PRELIMINARY UPDATE

I have submitted the top questions from our poll to Friedcat.

I decided to make the #1 question a request for him to confirm the recent news from rockxie's presentation, and to summarize the plans for the mining farm and ne "Mini Blade".

The other two questions were asking when the first financial report will be, and whether Bitfountain can provide an official hashrate meter for the farm, or official updates about how many hashes they have online.

~TAT

Here is a helpful link https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=49840;sa=showPosts
Show's the latest posts by friedcat
Eric Muyser
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July 01, 2013, 04:45:44 AM
 #8916

I posted this already, but I think 30% is the point where things change for AM.  Above 30% APR, buy and hold.  Below 30%, look to sell.

I think the number of investors comfortable under 30% is higher than those willing to sell at 30%.  We'll see high teens before this stabilizes.

Just my 2c

We gotta wait until like November for people with hope in other ASICs to come to the sad realization (for them) that FRIEDCAT IS KING!

Then in January, it'll be to the moon (high teens).

@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
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July 01, 2013, 05:03:07 AM
 #8917

wow - there are some really vitriolic threads starting up against ASICMINER - the backlash has begun. I think it is part:

a) Jealousy - all those failed graphic-card based miners just don't like it, they have finally realised (6 months too late) graphic cards are worthless for mining now
b) Genuine but totally ill-thought-of fear of a 51% takeover
c) Good old fashioned Chinese-directed racism

One example:
https://t.co/gorhoGK1oG

Title is "Can we block mining from China" lol, or something like that ... read at your peril Wink
freedomno1
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July 01, 2013, 05:16:35 AM
Last edit: July 01, 2013, 05:40:15 AM by freedomno1
 #8918

Well you should see the AMC thread  Grin
That's scary stuff there can we approve of the ability to make exclusive censorship on all bad things
Well this is what the poll says exactly but that's how I read it
Should I delete post that are not discussing the merits of AMC in The AMC Thread?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=158806.2020;topicseen
That said chaos brings about opportunities or a bigger flameout

There's a couple of these threads going now here is one
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=247168.msg2623500#msg2623500

Some topics seem like legitimate concerns some FUD to mess with the price
Others are rage at competitors for sucking and not delivering
Some others make the point that bitcoin should not have any one source of mining
Libertarian routes matter
And even more still that don't qualify as any of the above

It is interesting enough as long as their reasoning is sound
Statements like this is overpriced 4 BTC a share without reasoning is just our speculation thread  Grin
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.0 Up to 52 Pages Holding Strong
Once the trollbox is activated here we can all yell faster  Cool
https://asicminer.info/

That said at least we allow discourse even if it seems illogical
Whether its based on things like Yield which is logical
Or if 4 BTC share is overpriced which has been pointed out at varying levels since 2.5 heck since 1 and likely even in the future if ASIC is at 10 btc a share 1 year from now and bitcoins total value becomes 10 billion from the one billion now Smiley
It will still be overpriced hehe ceteris paribus
For notation ASICminers value is about = to total bitcoin wealth last year without speculation whether that is concerning depends on how you think bitcoin will fare in 1 years time Cheesy
http://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap
Edit looks like its at the lower range of the 180 day scale so not even that long one could argue that the price is proportional to the growth of bitcoin total value causing this huge appreciation or it's illogical

Point is make sure your arguments make sense
Strange Vlad
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July 01, 2013, 07:49:39 AM
 #8919

About monopoly concerns at least they are right.
Many would feel uncomfortable with AM being "KING", just retaining leadership would be enough. Strong competition is necessary, so I hope competitors deliver mass-production of second-generation chips late this year (by second-generation I mean 65nm and less, excluding BFL).
I would even prefer AM losing leadership, over their total domination of Bitcoin ASIC market. Monopoly would make Bitcoin itself endangered.

Do not try and bend the spoon. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. There is no spoon. Then you'll see, that it is not the spoon that bends, it is only yourself.
1CdVTkA288cd3m1jkdqPjUfhQ5ebei8gVT
Eric Muyser
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July 01, 2013, 08:36:06 AM
Last edit: July 01, 2013, 09:18:22 AM by Eric Muyser
 #8920

About monopoly concerns at least they are right.
Many would feel uncomfortable with AM being "KING", just retaining leadership would be enough. Strong competition is necessary, so I hope competitors deliver mass-production of second-generation chips late this year (by second-generation I mean 65nm and less, excluding BFL).
I would even prefer AM losing leadership, over their total domination of Bitcoin ASIC market. Monopoly would make Bitcoin itself endangered.

By saying he is king, I just meant he will retain leadership and we can be confident in that as we see this unfold in the next ~6 months. Confident enough to value a share at 10+ BTC.

However, even if there is a monopoly (as in, AM is the miner at 50% network share and everyone else is an AM consumer), it won't stop the majority from riding that boat, heh.

@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
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