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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3917682 times)
empoweoqwj
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July 01, 2013, 03:24:52 AM
 #8901

I think his posts are hilarious

They become funnier when you ignore him. Then you just get to see his "highlight posts" via other people quoting him  Grin

Now this share is getting really hot you'll have loads of "bubble boys" in here talking equal nonsense, ignore them all and watch the share price keep rising.
empoweoqwj
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July 01, 2013, 03:56:29 AM
 #8902

I posted this already, but I think 30% is the point where things change for AM.  Above 30% APR, buy and hold.  Below 30%, look to sell.

I think the number of investors comfortable under 30% is higher than those willing to sell at 30%.  We'll see high teens before this stabilizes.

Just my 2c

yeah, could be, but I think there are a few other investment for around 25% that are probably less risk.

which are?  Wink
velacreations
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July 01, 2013, 04:16:23 AM
 #8903

yeah, could be, but I think there are a few other investment for around 25% that are probably less risk.

which are?  Wink
coinlenders comes to mind

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July 01, 2013, 04:20:29 AM
 #8904

yeah, could be, but I think there are a few other investment for around 25% that are probably less risk.

which are?  Wink
coinlenders comes to mind

Just dice if someone really sucks at gambling  Cheesy
Got to wait for a whale

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Diamondstarfall
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July 01, 2013, 04:32:24 AM
 #8905

PRELIMINARY UPDATE

I have submitted the top questions from our poll to Friedcat.

I decided to make the #1 question a request for him to confirm the recent news from rockxie's presentation, and to summarize the plans for the mining farm and ne "Mini Blade".

The other two questions were asking when the first financial report will be, and whether Bitfountain can provide an official hashrate meter for the farm, or official updates about how many hashes they have online.

~TAT

Here is a helpful link https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=49840;sa=showPosts
Show's the latest posts by friedcat
Eric Muyser
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July 01, 2013, 04:45:44 AM
 #8906

I posted this already, but I think 30% is the point where things change for AM.  Above 30% APR, buy and hold.  Below 30%, look to sell.

I think the number of investors comfortable under 30% is higher than those willing to sell at 30%.  We'll see high teens before this stabilizes.

Just my 2c

We gotta wait until like November for people with hope in other ASICs to come to the sad realization (for them) that FRIEDCAT IS KING!

Then in January, it'll be to the moon (high teens).

@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
empoweoqwj
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July 01, 2013, 05:03:07 AM
 #8907

wow - there are some really vitriolic threads starting up against ASICMINER - the backlash has begun. I think it is part:

a) Jealousy - all those failed graphic-card based miners just don't like it, they have finally realised (6 months too late) graphic cards are worthless for mining now
b) Genuine but totally ill-thought-of fear of a 51% takeover
c) Good old fashioned Chinese-directed racism

One example:
https://t.co/gorhoGK1oG

Title is "Can we block mining from China" lol, or something like that ... read at your peril Wink
freedomno1
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July 01, 2013, 05:16:35 AM
Last edit: July 01, 2013, 05:40:15 AM by freedomno1
 #8908

Well you should see the AMC thread  Grin
That's scary stuff there can we approve of the ability to make exclusive censorship on all bad things
Well this is what the poll says exactly but that's how I read it
Should I delete post that are not discussing the merits of AMC in The AMC Thread?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=158806.2020;topicseen
That said chaos brings about opportunities or a bigger flameout

There's a couple of these threads going now here is one
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=247168.msg2623500#msg2623500

Some topics seem like legitimate concerns some FUD to mess with the price
Others are rage at competitors for sucking and not delivering
Some others make the point that bitcoin should not have any one source of mining
Libertarian routes matter
And even more still that don't qualify as any of the above

It is interesting enough as long as their reasoning is sound
Statements like this is overpriced 4 BTC a share without reasoning is just our speculation thread  Grin
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.0 Up to 52 Pages Holding Strong
Once the trollbox is activated here we can all yell faster  Cool
https://asicminer.info/

That said at least we allow discourse even if it seems illogical
Whether its based on things like Yield which is logical
Or if 4 BTC share is overpriced which has been pointed out at varying levels since 2.5 heck since 1 and likely even in the future if ASIC is at 10 btc a share 1 year from now and bitcoins total value becomes 10 billion from the one billion now Smiley
It will still be overpriced hehe ceteris paribus
For notation ASICminers value is about = to total bitcoin wealth last year without speculation whether that is concerning depends on how you think bitcoin will fare in 1 years time Cheesy
http://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap
Edit looks like its at the lower range of the 180 day scale so not even that long one could argue that the price is proportional to the growth of bitcoin total value causing this huge appreciation or it's illogical

Point is make sure your arguments make sense

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Strange Vlad
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July 01, 2013, 07:49:39 AM
 #8909

About monopoly concerns at least they are right.
Many would feel uncomfortable with AM being "KING", just retaining leadership would be enough. Strong competition is necessary, so I hope competitors deliver mass-production of second-generation chips late this year (by second-generation I mean 65nm and less, excluding BFL).
I would even prefer AM losing leadership, over their total domination of Bitcoin ASIC market. Monopoly would make Bitcoin itself endangered.

Do not try and bend the spoon. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. There is no spoon. Then you'll see, that it is not the spoon that bends, it is only yourself.
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Eric Muyser
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July 01, 2013, 08:36:06 AM
Last edit: July 01, 2013, 09:18:22 AM by Eric Muyser
 #8910

About monopoly concerns at least they are right.
Many would feel uncomfortable with AM being "KING", just retaining leadership would be enough. Strong competition is necessary, so I hope competitors deliver mass-production of second-generation chips late this year (by second-generation I mean 65nm and less, excluding BFL).
I would even prefer AM losing leadership, over their total domination of Bitcoin ASIC market. Monopoly would make Bitcoin itself endangered.

By saying he is king, I just meant he will retain leadership and we can be confident in that as we see this unfold in the next ~6 months. Confident enough to value a share at 10+ BTC.

However, even if there is a monopoly (as in, AM is the miner at 50% network share and everyone else is an AM consumer), it won't stop the majority from riding that boat, heh.

@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
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July 01, 2013, 08:47:53 AM
 #8911

Asicminer is 21st century's Standard Oil, and as a shareholder I am perfectly fine with that Cheesy
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July 01, 2013, 09:38:16 AM
 #8912

Confident enough to value a share at 10+ BTC.

10BTC per share sets the market cap of AM at 4 Million BTCs: With 21 Million BTCs ever in circulation, that's pushing it - The most likely option is we ride the bubble-train to those waters, then deflate at some bubble-defining-moment to more reasonable worth. That could be some big name getting in the game. Ask yourself how much you'd be willing to pay for an AM share if you just heard that Intel or AMD had started designing new chips specifically for mining. With the coming divs, remember to keep a cool head.
(Without anyone else in the game and those divs, I'd pay 6BTC. With AMD/Intel/competitor with strong product... 0.5 to 1BTC maybe?)

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July 01, 2013, 09:43:31 AM
 #8913

I'd sell before 10BTC that's for sure
freedomno1
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July 01, 2013, 09:58:42 AM
 #8914

Confident enough to value a share at 10+ BTC.

10BTC per share sets the market cap of AM at 4 Million BTCs: With 21 Million BTCs ever in circulation, that's pushing it - The most likely option is we ride the bubble-train to those waters, then deflate at some bubble-defining-moment to more reasonable worth. That could be some big name getting in the game. Ask yourself how much you'd be willing to pay for an AM share if you just heard that Intel or AMD had started designing new chips specifically for mining. With the coming divs, remember to keep a cool head.
(Without anyone else in the game and those divs, I'd pay 6BTC. With AMD/Intel/competitor with strong product... 0.5 to 1BTC maybe?)



Excellent observation about the total bitcoins in circulation
When I was thinking that number I measured by Cap but if the market value went up to 10 billion from 1 billion in a years time
The value per bitcoin would be proportionately different and so would the share price per equivalent share in Asicminer would certainly be less than 10 btc as each bitcoin is a lot more valuable.
If AMD/Intel went in I would like to see for myself their chips capabilities before buying, making the firmware is well within their capabilities but of course would need to see how they run.
That said even if AMD/Intel came in I still think Klondike firmware would hold its own by the time they make that choice unless they adopt it themselves but it would be interesting to see how the market reacts to that type of news.
Asicminer would need to adjust its game

Good 2 bits

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July 01, 2013, 10:12:25 AM
 #8915

Confident enough to value a share at 10+ BTC.

10BTC per share sets the market cap of AM at 4 Million BTCs: With 21 Million BTCs ever in circulation, that's pushing it - The most likely option is we ride the bubble-train to those waters, then deflate at some bubble-defining-moment to more reasonable worth. That could be some big name getting in the game. Ask yourself how much you'd be willing to pay for an AM share if you just heard that Intel or AMD had started designing new chips specifically for mining. With the coming divs, remember to keep a cool head.
(Without anyone else in the game and those divs, I'd pay 6BTC. With AMD/Intel/competitor with strong product... 0.5 to 1BTC maybe?)



You have a point about the potential risks but the number of bitcoins in circulation shouldn't have any bearing on the potential valuation of a company. The total value of an economy isn't just the money in that economy but all of the goods you can buy or trade with it, including financial instruments such as debt. A higher valuation of ASICMINER adds to the total value of the bitcoin economy.
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July 01, 2013, 10:25:18 AM
 #8916

Confident enough to value a share at 10+ BTC.

10BTC per share sets the market cap of AM at 4 Million BTCs: With 21 Million BTCs ever in circulation, that's pushing it - The most likely option is we ride the bubble-train to those waters, then deflate at some bubble-defining-moment to more reasonable worth. That could be some big name getting in the game. Ask yourself how much you'd be willing to pay for an AM share if you just heard that Intel or AMD had started designing new chips specifically for mining. With the coming divs, remember to keep a cool head.
(Without anyone else in the game and those divs, I'd pay 6BTC. With AMD/Intel/competitor with strong product... 0.5 to 1BTC maybe?)



Now you are showcasing your just 2nd grader math skills. Just because some one share would be sold at 10btc/share doesnt matter the next share would be priced the same. All this company is worth SHARES X 1SHAREPRICE is just virtual valuation nothing else
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July 01, 2013, 10:31:45 AM
Last edit: July 01, 2013, 11:02:24 AM by freedomno1
 #8917

Well to clarify

Bitcoin Exchange Rate 90 USD
ASIC 4 BTC
= 360 Value/Share
Market Cap 1 Billion Dollars
http://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap

Valuation can go up
But as measured in bitcoin less than the exchange rate

Example 2
Bitcoin Exchange Rate 180 USD
ASIC 3 BTC
= 540 Value/Share
Market Cap 2 Billion + Some Dollars (Assumes a FV and some more coins created)

Based on unit of measurement
21 Million Bitcoins
+ Growth in Bitcoin Economy market cap

Works the other way too

Example 3
Bitcoin Exchange Rate 50 USD
ASIC 7.2 BTC
Value 360/Share
Market Cap around 600 million

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July 01, 2013, 10:37:53 AM
 #8918

If AMD/Intel went in I would like to see for myself their chips capabilities before buying, making the firmware is well within their capabilities but of course would need to see how they run.
That said even if AMD/Intel came in I still think Klondike firmware would hold its own by the time they make that choice unless they adopt it themselves but it would be interesting to see how the market reacts to that type of news.
Asicminer would need to adjust its game

I would like to believe AM has a shot, but we're talking David vs. Goliath. It would take a month for either to catch up to AM, then another month to leapfrog over them via the hordes of PHDs on payroll eager to produce new designs and get them produced right away: the meager advantage AM has over Bitcoin chipmakers/miners currently is irrelevant to the mastodons of the real world. Best case they enter the game very late and by then AM has established itself as a viable company (tour de force already - overtaking legal, scaling, R&D...) able to work the niche and maintain some HW resale that chipmakers don't care for, Divs exist but are very small.

You have a point about the potential risks but the number of bitcoins in circulation shouldn't have any bearing on the potential valuation of a company. The total value of an economy isn't just the money in that economy but all of the goods you can buy or trade with it, including financial instruments such as debt. A higher valuation of ASICMINER adds to the total value of the bitcoin economy.
I'm struggling with the concept - if AM's valuation is disconnected from the currency and it's core functionality is the verification of transactions, then how is it different from the Federal Reserve / Quantitative Easing? That would be artificially devaluating the currency.
I can understand the concept but I struggle to imagine it - in my head we're working a zero-sum world, there cannot be more valuation than the total worth of all the currency available.
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July 01, 2013, 10:46:39 AM
 #8919

All this concern about AMD/Intel/Nvidia getting in the game is really silly, IMO. The market cap on selling ASIC chips for mining hardware resellers isn't anywhere near interesting enough for these firms to bother putting any R&D into. AM is successful not because of the chips they sell, but because they mine with their own turnkey hardware and sell it at the same time. No existing chip manufacturer is going to try the same business model as AM.

It's the smaller Shenzhen based companies with ASIC manufacturing capabilities that I'd be concerned about. A private firm could try and replicate the AM business model, without any public investments.

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July 01, 2013, 10:52:39 AM
 #8920

Confident enough to value a share at 10+ BTC.

10BTC per share sets the market cap of AM at 4 Million BTCs: With 21 Million BTCs ever in circulation, that's pushing it - The most likely option is we ride the bubble-train to those waters, then deflate at some bubble-defining-moment to more reasonable worth. That could be some big name getting in the game. Ask yourself how much you'd be willing to pay for an AM share if you just heard that Intel or AMD had started designing new chips specifically for mining. With the coming divs, remember to keep a cool head.
(Without anyone else in the game and those divs, I'd pay 6BTC. With AMD/Intel/competitor with strong product... 0.5 to 1BTC maybe?)



Now you are showcasing your just 2nd grader math skills. Just because some one share would be sold at 10btc/share doesnt matter the next share would be priced the same. All this company is worth SHARES X 1SHAREPRICE is just virtual valuation nothing else

Thank you...

I was just about to say that. Valuation has nothing to do with circulation.

First of all, Friedcat holds half of the shares so technically half of that 400,000 hasn't even touched any BTC in circulation.
Second, many of those shares would have been valued below and leading up to 10 BTC, and you can't just liquidate them all at once at 10 BTC so the hypothetical value is the price the stock was purchased at, which would be far lower than your calculation.
Third, if Friedcat doesn't sell, the amount of BTC in circulation means nothing, because he wouldn't be trying to collect the amount that is in circulation.

If he did then the valuation would go down...

Supply and demand man.

@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
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