Eric Muyser
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Activity: 224
Merit: 100
You can't kill math.
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July 01, 2013, 04:34:44 PM |
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Anyway, ASICMINER shares are so esoteric its hard to believe an interest in Bitcoin has led to an increase in ASICMINER price without a corresponding increase in bitcoin price.
I would posit that most of the smaller investors in AM (Those with less than 50 shares) are reinvesting divs right back into more shares, either directly or through fractional share purchases. This would have the effect of funneling btc directly into the hands of those wishing to cash out, which is the primary reason for selling. This lends itself to the following hypothesis: Purchases of AM tend to go to sellers who convert the btc to cash, driving down btc exchange rate and simultaneously increasing AM share prices as reinvestment means less shares available for sale. The results are exactly what we are seeing, and the market for both btc and AM may just be thin enough at this point where the hypothesis is correct as a causation factor of current trends. There would be of course, other factors at play, but i would consider that this one may be the primary one. The divs aren't big enough to have that kind of affect. Besides, seems like reaching. It contributes to the value, but it's not a primary one IMO. |
@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
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Each block is stacked on top of the previous one. Adding another block to the top makes all lower blocks more difficult to remove: there is more "weight" above each block. A transaction in a block 6 blocks deep (6 confirmations) will be very difficult to remove.
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sunnankar
Legendary
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Activity: 1031
Merit: 1000
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July 01, 2013, 04:44:27 PM |
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This lends itself to the following hypothesis:
Purchases of AM tend to go to sellers who convert the btc to cash, driving down btc exchange rate and simultaneously increasing AM share prices as reinvestment means less shares available for sale.
Remember, prices are set at the margin based on marginal supply and demand. With BTC there are, most likely, significant amounts of savings which people, for whatever reason, do not want to move out of Bitcoinlandia. AM, as one of the very few reliable investments, is drawing in capital. Since the price rises from this and because of the weekly dividend, which contributes to the 'savings glut', the result most people just keep sitting on their shares. After all, where else are they going to park their capital? We have already seen one person 'cash-out' their AM to pay off their student loans. But now that their USD cash-flow is freed up and if they generate positive monthly cash-flow then where will they be directing that capital? Probably BTC and AM shares or something similar. This is actually an extremely positive development in Bitcoin's growth as money and currency because it is increasingly being used as a numeraire in the performance of economic calculation by market participants, largely due to the advancements in mining. The speed at which this is happening is really astounding. |
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aahzmundus
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July 01, 2013, 04:46:15 PM |
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Anyway, ASICMINER shares are so esoteric its hard to believe an interest in Bitcoin has led to an increase in ASICMINER price without a corresponding increase in bitcoin price.
I would posit that most of the smaller investors in AM (Those with less than 50 shares) are reinvesting divs right back into more shares, either directly or through fractional share purchases. This would have the effect of funneling btc directly into the hands of those wishing to cash out, which is the primary reason for selling. This lends itself to the following hypothesis: Purchases of AM tend to go to sellers who convert the btc to cash, driving down btc exchange rate and simultaneously increasing AM share prices as reinvestment means less shares available for sale. The results are exactly what we are seeing, and the market for both btc and AM may just be thin enough at this point where the hypothesis is correct as a causation factor of current trends. There would be of course, other factors at play, but i would consider that this one may be the primary one. You may be on to something here... this is exactly what I am doing. I NEVER used to cash out my btc, but with divs being so large I have cashed out >40btc in the last... month or so. Unlike someone who invested in mining hardware and has a long time before they break even, I broke even... well before I started with my AM investment. So I had no qualms about taking in some of my gains to pay off bills, where as people who USED to be getting this btc probably saved it up. |
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muyuu
Donator
Legendary
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Activity: 980
Merit: 1000
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July 01, 2013, 04:50:42 PM |
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This is a bit crazy but I'm loving it.  I look away for a bit and it has bumped again. Woha. Friedcat for president! |
GPG ID: 7294199D - OTC ID: muyuu (470F97EB7294199D)
forum tea fund BTC 1Epv7KHbNjYzqYVhTCgXWYhGSkv7BuKGEU DOGE DF1eTJ2vsxjHpmmbKu9jpqsrg5uyQLWksM CAP F1MzvmmHwP2UhFq82NQT7qDU9NQ8oQbtkQ
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empoweoqwj
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July 01, 2013, 04:55:28 PM |
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Because I want to pay off my student loans, and if I don't sell 2 hours after... Ill keep holding forever and never sell, when it would be nice to pay off the loans to improve my USD cashflow  Getting rid of debts is a good decision. Fully agreed. My only point would be the same as TsuyokuNaritai made. This stock is not a pump-and-dump, its not LTC. It just keeps going up and up. If you have funds to invest in the stock, invest *now*. I bought in on June 14th, that's 17 days ago at 2.5BTC, the price is now nearly 5. I really see no point in waiting around unless you believe we are in bubble land already. Sounds a lot like bubble-land, if I'm honest. I heard this exact thing about Bitcoin itself back in March. I'm not buying puts just for funsies. I'm buying puts because it's the only way to protect myself from ridiculous valuations of a company with a very clear business model. There's one big difference. Bitcoin price is almost entirely sentiment driven, AM share prices, within the BTC sphere, are driven to some extent at least by numbers / fundamentals. I agree the share is on the verge of bubble-land. That's why people are starting to sell out below 5. But I think if AM performs well over the next 2-3 months, the bubble will inflate to around 8-10 before bursting back to 5 or below. If I had bought in very early and had lots of shares, I would be looking to sell some now. Some early adopters could get 10x their initial investment back without hardly denting their current share level. Its all good  |
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Luckybit
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July 01, 2013, 05:09:36 PM |
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I expect to see a HUGE price spike the next time friedcat posts... I actually have btc sitting and waiting to buy in the second he posts, and then I will sell on the spike!
Why even sell on the spike? It's not trollboxland where every pump is followed by a dump. This is Friedcatland, all spikes so far have just stabilized out until the next spike! Because I want to pay off my student loans, and if I don't sell 2 hours after... Ill keep holding forever and never sell, when it would be nice to pay off the loans to improve my USD cashflow To increase popularity of Bitcoin and Asicminer, you should speak to the media. Would you be willing to bring exposure to Asicminer by detailing in an interview how you paid for your student loans with this fantastic Bitcoin exclusive investment opportunity? If you don't want to do an interview at least consider writing a book and selling it. It will increase your cashflow and benefit your share value. You're like the Warren Buffet of Virtual Stocks. |
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blackreplica
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July 01, 2013, 05:10:41 PM |
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"There's one big difference. Bitcoin price is almost entirely sentiment driven, AM share prices, within the BTC sphere, are driven to some extent at least by numbers / fundamentals."
I absolutely agree with this. Thankfully we have numbers to value AM properly and hopefully this will be a saving grace, preventing a massive bubble in AM shares.
I definitely agree we are just beginning to enter bubble territory (though still not there yet). However, given the ability to price AM, I'm hoping we do not actually get into the 8-10 btc/share range. If we got there the bubble pop would be very painful for the people entering the market at or after right about now
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www.sgBitcoin.net - The Premier News, Discussion & Marketplace Destination for the Singaporean Bitcoin Community
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Luckybit
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July 01, 2013, 05:18:09 PM |
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About monopoly concerns at least they are right.
Many would feel uncomfortable with AM being "KING", just retaining leadership would be enough. Strong competition is necessary, so I hope competitors deliver mass-production of second-generation chips late this year (by second-generation I mean 65nm and less, excluding BFL).
I would even prefer AM losing leadership, over their total domination of Bitcoin ASIC market. Monopoly would make Bitcoin itself endangered.
By saying he is king, I just meant he will retain leadership and we can be confident in that as we see this unfold in the next ~6 months. Confident enough to value a share at 10+ BTC. However, even if there is a monopoly (as in, AM is the miner at 50% network share and everyone else is an AM consumer), it won't stop the majority from riding that boat, heh. How would Asicminer monopoly endanger Bitcoin network when they sell Miners and they distribute the rewards to shareholders? They don't have 50% of the network and probably never will but they should maximize profit for shareholders while selling the most decentralized mining equipment designs possible. |
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empoweoqwj
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July 01, 2013, 05:18:52 PM |
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I expect to see a HUGE price spike the next time friedcat posts... I actually have btc sitting and waiting to buy in the second he posts, and then I will sell on the spike!
Why even sell on the spike? It's not trollboxland where every pump is followed by a dump. This is Friedcatland, all spikes so far have just stabilized out until the next spike! Because I want to pay off my student loans, and if I don't sell 2 hours after... Ill keep holding forever and never sell, when it would be nice to pay off the loans to improve my USD cashflow To increase popularity of Bitcoin and Asicminer, you should speak to the media. Would you be willing to bring exposure to Asicminer by detailing in an interview how you paid for your student loans with this fantastic Bitcoin exclusive investment opportunity? If you don't want to do an interview at least consider writing a book and selling it. It will increase your cashflow and benefit your share value. You're like the Warren Buffet of Virtual Stocks. Ummm ... generally people don't write financial books for the money, they do it because they love exposure, want to feed their ego or want to leave something behind when they go. I don't think Warren Buffet exactly needed the cash from a book deal  |
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Luckybit
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July 01, 2013, 05:19:02 PM |
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Ha, he's really gonna slow the growth down with this. We were gonna see 5 for certain. Time to make some phone calls and get people to buy them all up ASAP. |
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empoweoqwj
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July 01, 2013, 05:19:43 PM |
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I think its cool. We can all buy them and resell them to bubble-boys  |
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Luckybit
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July 01, 2013, 05:21:04 PM |
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I think its cool. We can all buy them and resell them to bubble-boys The bubble-boys will be coming. We just gotta call them up and tell them what an awesome opportunity they are missing. When stories spread about people paying off their college loans or tripling their Bitcoins just from buying shares they'll get in. By the way, 1000 shares @ 4.5? That guy is a millionaire. |
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aahzmundus
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July 01, 2013, 05:24:11 PM |
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I expect to see a HUGE price spike the next time friedcat posts... I actually have btc sitting and waiting to buy in the second he posts, and then I will sell on the spike!
Why even sell on the spike? It's not trollboxland where every pump is followed by a dump. This is Friedcatland, all spikes so far have just stabilized out until the next spike! Because I want to pay off my student loans, and if I don't sell 2 hours after... Ill keep holding forever and never sell, when it would be nice to pay off the loans to improve my USD cashflow To increase popularity of Bitcoin and Asicminer, you should speak to the media. Would you be willing to bring exposure to Asicminer by detailing in an interview how you paid for your student loans with this fantastic Bitcoin exclusive investment opportunity? If you don't want to do an interview at least consider writing a book and selling it. It will increase your cashflow and benefit your share value. You're like the Warren Buffet of Virtual Stocks. Uhhh, I would and I wouldn't. I haven't paid off my student loans yet, I'm trying to not pull out TOO much to avoid going up several tax brackets (I plan to may my taxes on this income). Last time there was a wall, it lasted for... how long? I figure now is a good time to cash out some. That mid sized wall on TAT is me at 4.5. (unless it already got eaten). |
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nubbins
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Activity: 1554
Merit: 1009
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July 01, 2013, 05:25:28 PM |
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When stories spread about people paying off their college loans or tripling their Bitcoins just from buying shares they'll get in.
I've tripled my investment in under 2 months.
For the record, I think anybody who buys shares at current prices (~4.5) is making a bad decision. |
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Luckybit
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July 01, 2013, 05:26:30 PM |
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When stories spread about people paying off their college loans or tripling their Bitcoins just from buying shares they'll get in.
I've tripled my investment in under 2 months.
For the record, I think anybody who buys shares at current prices (~4.5) is making a bad decision. Why would you consider it a bad decisions with the ridiculous dividends coming in the future? |
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Eric Muyser
Full Member
Offline
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
You can't kill math.
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July 01, 2013, 05:32:42 PM |
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When stories spread about people paying off their college loans or tripling their Bitcoins just from buying shares they'll get in.
I've tripled my investment in under 2 months.
For the record, I think anybody who buys shares at current prices (~4.5) is making a bad decision. Yah don't give a reason, facts or logic or anything. |
@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
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blackreplica
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July 01, 2013, 05:33:37 PM |
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It may seem that way...but I seriously believe this guy just did us a massive favour by stabilising the price |
www.sgBitcoin.net - The Premier News, Discussion & Marketplace Destination for the Singaporean Bitcoin Community
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SOSLOVE868
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July 01, 2013, 05:35:04 PM |
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When stories spread about people paying off their college loans or tripling their Bitcoins just from buying shares they'll get in.
I've tripled my investment in under 2 months.
For the record, I think anybody who buys shares at current prices (~4.5) is making a bad decision. Why would you consider it a bad decisions with the ridiculous dividends coming in the future? only if some one will buy over your AM shares at this price level in the future, otherwise anything less than 4.5(future selling price+received dividends)=loss |
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