ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[TsuyokuNaritai]

the wall would hold for a min or 2

FTFY 

[Eric Muyser]

lol, you need to see a net profit in one week? Gimme a break nobody expects that, when it comes to stable dividends they understand if the average yearly earning is 25% on their purchase price, then they can see the stock price drop 24% and still make a 1% profit.

I don't need to see anything. I'm not personally concerned about the price of shares at all. The rubes buying in at BTC4.5, however...

Yawn. Not if it stays at 4.5 or goes to 5 or 10 or even 4 BTC is still a profit in less than a year.

[binaryFate]

Almost half the wall gone already.

[MrBubbles007]

lol, you need to see a net profit in one week? Gimme a break nobody expects that, when it comes to stable dividends they understand if the average yearly earning is 25% on their purchase price, then they can see the stock price drop 24% and still make a 1% profit.

I don't need to see anything. I'm not personally concerned about the price of shares at all. The rubes buying in at BTC4.5, however...

I dont see how people can think its a good idea to keep buying in at this price either...

[nubbins]

Yawn. Not if it stays at 4.5 or goes to 5 or 10 or even 4 BTC is still a profit in less than a year.

Sorry if I'm boring you. Maybe I'll give unbridled optimism a shot, it's pretty popular lately:

Why stop at 10? At the rate things have been going, it'll reach 120 by next year! Buy at any price! Etc.

[empoweoqwj]

Almost half the wall gone already.

Over half gone. Looks like it kept the price stable for about 1hr 30 mins

[Eric Muyser]

Yawn. Not if it stays at 4.5 or goes to 5 or 10 or even 4 BTC is still a profit in less than a year.

Sorry if I'm boring you. Maybe I'll give unbridled optimism a shot, it's pretty popular lately:

Why stop at 10? At the rate things have been going, it'll reach 120 by next year! Buy at any price! Etc.

I actually have some conservative stances against AM as laid out here, but they are based on something. That's the difference. Saying you're at a loss if it drops 0.05, and thus should not invest, doesn't hold say much.

You can come up with a lot of good reasons not to invest at 4.5, or 2.5, or at all, but it's not that.

The recent optimism is based on more substance than that.

Edit: Sorry nubbins, I'm going through some IRL stuff. That was uncalled for. I shouldn't be arguing online.

[aahzmundus]

Annnnd im buying back in.  See? I was only able to keep my money out of ASICMINER for what, 40 min?  I will never pay off my loans this way!!!?!

[cp1]

BTC price is going to be interesting if there's a 4500 BTC sell off coming.

[gramma]

Annnnd im buying back in.  See? I was only able to keep my money out of ASICMINER for what, 40 min?  I will never pay off my loans this way!!!?!

Lol.  Yes you will, and I'm a little jealous that you'll be able to! (yes, still buried, even at my age (late to college) :p )  Just not today

[nubbins]

I actually have some conservative stances against AM as laid out here, but they are based on something. That's the difference. Saying you're at a loss if it drops 0.05, and thus should not invest, is moronic.

You can come up with a lot of good reasons not to invest at 4.5, or 2.5, or at all, but it's not that.

The recent optimism is based on more substance than that.

You were the first to bring up dividends, so I responded to that point -- I don't think dividends are a compelling reason to do anything at the moment. It's much more interesting (and profitable) to just be buying and selling shares at this point.

And for what it's worth, name-calling reflects poorly on one's character. There's enough shitheads on the forum already, why don't we at least try to keep the conversation civil?

[binaryFate]

Too bad for you aahzmundus, this one just appeared 
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=247876.msg2628261#msg2628261

[Eric Muyser]

You were the first to bring up dividends, so I responded to that point -- I don't think dividends are a compelling reason to do anything at the moment. It's much more interesting (and profitable) to just be buying and selling shares at this point.

And for what it's worth, name-calling reflects poorly on one's character. There's enough shitheads on the forum already, why don't we at least try to keep the conversation civil?

Sorry nubbins, I'm going through some IRL stuff. I agree, that was uncalled for. I shouldn't be arguing online.

Luckybit brought up dividends, then you countered, then I countered.

[candoo]

I guess we will hit 5 BTC per share tomorrow!:o

[nubbins]

You were the first to bring up dividends, so I responded to that point -- I don't think dividends are a compelling reason to do anything at the moment. It's much more interesting (and profitable) to just be buying and selling shares at this point.

And for what it's worth, name-calling reflects poorly on one's character. There's enough shitheads on the forum already, why don't we at least try to keep the conversation civil?

Sorry nubbins, I'm going through some IRL stuff. I agree, that was uncalled for. I shouldn't be arguing online.

Luckybit brought up dividends, then you countered, then I countered.

Apology accepted, discussions about AM tend to heat up pretty quickly. I've been so busy tracking the share price that I didn't even notice the last dividend payout.

[Luckybit]

When stories spread about people paying off their college loans or tripling their Bitcoins just from buying shares they'll get in.

I've tripled my investment in under 2 months.

For the record, I think anybody who buys shares at current prices (~4.5) is making a bad decision.

Why would you consider it a bad decisions with the ridiculous dividends coming in the future?

Because daily fluctuations in share prices are already orders of magnitude larger than any dividend payment to date. A BTC0.04 dividend equals a net loss if the shares you bought at BTC4.5 are now selling for BTC4.45.

But I think the shares are worth around 5BTC and while I wouldn't buy them at 10BTC (I cannot afford to at that price) I'm sure some people can. It's a good place to put your Bitcoins and it's better than leaving it in cold storage or hot wallet. You might have to deal with the fluctuations but if it gets to 5BTC it's not going back down to 4.5 so the problem of fluctuations mostly affects people who get in too late. If you're getting in at 5+ then I would think it's far more risky than getting in right now at 4.5.

[nubbins]

But I think the shares are worth around 5BTC and while I wouldn't buy them at 10BTC (I cannot afford to at that price) I'm sure some people can. It's a good place to put your Bitcoins and it's better than leaving it in cold storage or hot wallet. You might have to deal with the fluctuations but if it gets to 5BTC it's not going back down to 4.5 so the problem of fluctuations mostly affects people who get in too late. If you're getting in at 5+ then I would think it's far more risky than getting in right now at 4.5.

Emphasis mine, and I agree with the points in bold. To extend it another step, getting in at 4.5 is riskier than if you'd done so at 4.

If you bought in at a lower price (let's say <2 for the sake of the discussion), the question is not whether you lost or gained money, but how much profit you've made.

I disagree with your statement that share price won't drop to 4.5 once it passes 5; all I can see are those "hold, spartans!" memes on /r/Bitcoin when BTC/USD was $200+. If x can go up, x can go down, which leads me to your statement that AM is a better parking spot than cold storage; that's only true if AM shares don't decrease in value.

[nubbins]

I should also mention that I'm not trying to antagonize people by being pessimistic. The "sky's the limit" crowd is a mixture of (a) genuinely optimistic investors, and (b) people trying to keep the price high while they cash out. Devil's advocates are necessary in times like these

[chkgk]

I disagree with your statement that share price won't drop to 4.5 once it passes 5; all I can see are those "hold, spartans!" memes on /r/Bitcoin when BTC/USD was $200+. If x can go up, x can go down, which leads me to your statement that AM is a better parking spot than cold storage; that's only true if AM shares don't decrease in value.

I fully agree with you there. However, it's relatively easy to deal with the risk of a stock price falling below initial investment. I have a simple script monitoring the exchange rate. If it drops below my average buy-in share price (+10%) it places a sell order at a price which should immediately be matched by open buy orders.

[Luckybit]

But I think the shares are worth around 5BTC and while I wouldn't buy them at 10BTC (I cannot afford to at that price) I'm sure some people can. It's a good place to put your Bitcoins and it's better than leaving it in cold storage or hot wallet. You might have to deal with the fluctuations but if it gets to 5BTC it's not going back down to 4.5 so the problem of fluctuations mostly affects people who get in too late. If you're getting in at 5+ then I would think it's far more risky than getting in right now at 4.5.

Emphasis mine, and I agree with the points in bold. To extend it another step, getting in at 4.5 is riskier than if you'd done so at 4.

If you bought in at a lower price (let's say <2 for the sake of the discussion), the question is not whether you lost or gained money, but how much profit you've made.

I disagree with your statement that share price won't drop to 4.5 once it passes 5; all I can see are those "hold, spartans!" memes on /r/Bitcoin when BTC/USD was $200+. If x can go up, x can go down, which leads me to your statement that AM is a better parking spot than cold storage; that's only true if AM shares don't decrease in value.

There is no reason to move the Bitcoins because there is nothing else paying dividends this much. So where else will people put their savings? You keep it in a cold storage and it doesn't collect 20-30% APR. And there is really nothing to spend it on except BFL and we see where that goes.

For the next month dividends will be high and there is no better investment. In August we can look at the share price then but I suspect it could be over 6 or even over 7 by then and the pressure will exist to sell but will that be enough to out pace demand? If the price of Bitcoins keep dropping then I would say no. The cheaper Bitcoins are the more demand there will be for these particular shares.