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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3916311 times)
ThickAsThieves
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July 03, 2013, 11:35:12 PM
 #9261

So... I got another div from friedcat!  http://blockchain.info/tx/e139fe3523379df036871317b9515f9c8e8a1798e929c99fe7db4709562bcf5c

Looks like he did the share transfers for the 1,000 auction and then paid divs for them... SWEET

You sure that wasn't from Jutarul?
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velacreations
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July 03, 2013, 11:42:49 PM
 #9262

So... I got another div from friedcat!  http://blockchain.info/tx/e139fe3523379df036871317b9515f9c8e8a1798e929c99fe7db4709562bcf5c

Looks like he did the share transfers for the 1,000 auction and then paid divs for them... SWEET

You sure that wasn't from Jutarul?

Yeah, I got mine from Jutarul for those shares...

MikkisJ
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July 03, 2013, 11:51:30 PM
 #9263

Are they already selling block erupter blades?
Eric Muyser
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July 04, 2013, 12:37:51 AM
 #9264

this week's dividend was 27% higher than last week.  I don't know who actually expected a .035 dividend, most of us (including me) have been saying .025.  Now, we certainly didn't rule it out going higher, but it's not like it was a disappointment.

Still last week's dividend was .018, this week is .023.  We went to 5.1 knowing the dividend had been .018.  The 120d average is still a ways above 30% APR.

We will see what happens, but I think it is quite clear that settling at 4.6 is a bit low, especially with 4.8 on the exchange right now.

I find it funny that you are bearish, now, using the same arguments I was when the dividend dropped 2 weeks ago.  It's funny how things change...  Grin

I'm not bearish. I'm don't fucking move this could go either way-ish until we get news or sales. Read the following quote. You say you expect 5 btc and 0.03. We got 0.022. You say "30% is appropriate rate." We're at 4.5, which is what I also say in the quote, which is 30%. Since then I've been adding word of caution we needed 0.025, which we fell short of the same amount we're up since last week. Read my posts, I haven't been pushing it, and said it should hold back, because even though I thought 0.03-0.04 was a possibility, it could be anything. Why are you pushing 5? Your own calculation doesn't allow for it. Heck, your own calculations below put it at 3.6 BTC. Sigh, when'd you get so bubbly? It's not even justified reasoning, it's just "friedcat will post! it'll go back! buy now!" with some basically outright lie that the last was 4.9 when that was just the ask.

I think it'll be at least a few months, when the rest of the ASICs are expected to "catch up," before people trust AM enough for 15% yearly. For now, 4.5-5 is good enough value to hold, and psychological place to hover until it eventually goes to 10 in the long term.

that depends a lot on the dividends.  If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably.  Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer.

At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc
At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc
At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc

I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks.


By the way take a look at where we are. 4.4 - 4.6. Well, actually someone just sold into them while I was typing this and we're at 4.25 now.

@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
daemondazz
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July 04, 2013, 12:38:31 AM
 #9265

Are they already selling block erupter blades?

No, USB Erupters.

Computers, Amateur Radio, Electronics, Aviation - 1dazzrAbMqNu6cUwh2dtYckNygG7jKs8S
SOSLOVE868
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July 04, 2013, 12:49:44 AM
 #9266

this week's dividend was 27% higher than last week.  I don't know who actually expected a .035 dividend, most of us (including me) have been saying .025.  Now, we certainly didn't rule it out going higher, but it's not like it was a disappointment.

Still last week's dividend was .018, this week is .023.  We went to 5.1 knowing the dividend had been .018.  The 120d average is still a ways above 30% APR.

We will see what happens, but I think it is quite clear that settling at 4.6 is a bit low, especially with 4.8 on the exchange right now.

I find it funny that you are bearish, now, using the same arguments I was when the dividend dropped 2 weeks ago.  It's funny how things change...  Grin

I'm not bearish. I'm don't fucking move this could go either way-ish until we get news or sales. Read the following quote. You say you expect 5 btc and 0.03. We got 0.022. You say "30% is appropriate rate." We're at 4.5, which is what I also say in the quote, which is 30%. Since then I've been adding word of caution we needed 0.025, which we fell short of the same amount we're up since last week. Read my posts, I haven't been pushing it, and said it should hold back, because even though I thought 0.03-0.04 was a possibility, it could be anything. Why are you pushing 5? Your own calculation doesn't allow for it. Heck, your own calculations below put it at 3.6 BTC. Sigh, when'd you get so bubbly? It's not even justified reasoning, it's just "friedcat will post! it'll go back! buy now!" with some basically outright lie that the last was 4.9 when that was just the ask.

I think it'll be at least a few months, when the rest of the ASICs are expected to "catch up," before people trust AM enough for 15% yearly. For now, 4.5-5 is good enough value to hold, and psychological place to hover until it eventually goes to 10 in the long term.

that depends a lot on the dividends.  If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably.  Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer.

At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc
At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc
At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc

I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks.


By the way take a look at where we are. 4.4 - 4.6. Well, actually someone just sold into them while I was typing this and we're at 4.25 now.

Everytime BTC/USD price suddenly big decrease that will causing panic sell of AM....normally share price will be back in later ,if you got free coin now, you should take this opportunity.

Exchange rate dump from 90 to 76 for past several hours and now is around 80...this pretty scary....When will we killed this damn volatility.....I ask myself...
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July 04, 2013, 01:00:44 AM
 #9267

Just one new news from friedcat everything will go up again.
velacreations
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July 04, 2013, 01:06:19 AM
 #9268

I'm not bearish. I'm don't fucking move this could go either way-ish until we get news or sales. Read the following quote. You say you expect 5 btc and 0.03. We got 0.022. You say "30% is appropriate rate." We're at 4.5, which is what I also say in the quote, which is 30%. Since then I've been adding word of caution we needed 0.025, which we fell short of the same amount we're up since last week. Read my posts, I haven't been pushing it, and said it should hold back, because even though I thought 0.03-0.04 was a possibility, it could be anything. Why are you pushing 5? Your own calculation doesn't allow for it. Heck, your own calculations below put it at 3.6 BTC. Sigh, when'd you get so bubbly? It's not even justified reasoning, it's just "friedcat will post! it'll go back! buy now!" with some basically outright lie that the last was 4.9 when that was just the ask.

I am not pushing anything, I am stating the fact that the last dividend was ~.019, yet we went to 5.1.  So, the 30% APR does not hold on a week by week basis.

And was the rise to 5.1 because you expected a .03 dividend or because there was a lot of great AM news?  So, you tell me, if the good news continues, will people buy or sell?  I can only expect that FC has good news for us.

Yes, I think with a weekly dividend of .03, 5 btc is a fair price.  Remember how when the share value dropped considerably 2 weeks ago, everyone was saying "look at the average dividend value"?  That is exactly what I am talking about, here.  

But, even then, I said that if dividend decreases, share price will follow.  We did not have a dividend drop this week, and I firmly believe share price will rebound.

Average for the last month has been .024 /week (very little hardware sales).  For the last 4 months, .0275/week.  @ 30% APR, that puts us firmly in the 4.75 range.  And that is not considering hardware sales, mostly mining.  When you consider the dividends of hardware sales and mining, it is clear that .03 is a stable dividend value.

So, yes, if and when FC gives us an update on when Blades will start selling again, the price will jump.  why?  because the dividends will be higher.  And if you look at the average dividends that include hardware sales, it is firmly in the .03 range.

Anyway, it is what it is.  Sure, you can say "I'm right, look at it, the price is down", but a few hours ago, the trend was the opposite.  And tomorrow?  who knows, but if we get news, the price will jump.

velacreations
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July 04, 2013, 01:10:13 AM
 #9269

Everytime BTC/USD price suddenly big decrease that will causing panic sell of AM....normally share price will be back in later ,if you got free coin now, you should take this opportunity.

Exchange rate dump from 90 to 76 for past several hours and now is around 80...this pretty scary....When will we killed this damn volatility.....I ask myself...

I guess we can throw out the whole "AM as a hedge to BTC/USD" theory, as well.  AM certainly had a bad day today, with BTC crash and shares going down at the same time.

Like I was told 2 weeks ago, AM is still the same company, has the same plans, is still mining very well, and has great potential, regardless if you thought the dividend might be higher this week.  If you believe that, then now is a great price to buy. 

SOSLOVE868
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July 04, 2013, 01:17:24 AM
 #9270

Everytime BTC/USD price suddenly big decrease that will causing panic sell of AM....normally share price will be back in later ,if you got free coin now, you should take this opportunity.

Exchange rate dump from 90 to 76 for past several hours and now is around 80...this pretty scary....When will we killed this damn volatility.....I ask myself...

I guess we can throw out the whole "AM as a hedge to BTC/USD" theory, as well.  AM certainly had a bad day today, with BTC crash and shares going down at the same time.

Like I was told 2 weeks ago, AM is still the same company, has the same plans, is still mining very well, and has great potential, regardless if you thought the dividend might be higher this week.  If you believe that, then now is a great price to buy. 
AM can't hedging anything ,its price up because its potential dividend ,its price dump could regard to BTC/USD and its low dividend..

BTC/USD had been sometime major issue for people become panic.
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July 04, 2013, 01:19:58 AM
 #9271

BTC/USD and profitability are interrelated but the extent on share price requires observation

Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
aahzmundus
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July 04, 2013, 01:48:27 AM
 #9272

So... I got another div from friedcat!  http://blockchain.info/tx/e139fe3523379df036871317b9515f9c8e8a1798e929c99fe7db4709562bcf5c

Looks like he did the share transfers for the 1,000 auction and then paid divs for them... SWEET

You sure that wasn't from Jutarul?


OOPS  yeah, seeing it come into my ASICMINER address confused me lolz Tongue

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July 04, 2013, 02:07:20 AM
 #9273

The reason why ASICM went down is because people are dumb, to put it plainly. I actually sold mid 4's two days ago because I knew peoples perceptions were wrong if they were thinking there was going to be a huge dividend today. Either way, we are still up a lot and now time to load up more shares. I can see ASICM falling more from here just because bearish sentiment scares weak investors. So be it, and let Bitcoin fall too so I can convert more worthless US dollars into Bitcoins and buy even more shares than I could before. Works out great for me. The weak investors can go run to the US stock exchange and have fun with that.. good luck you'll need it.
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July 04, 2013, 02:22:30 AM
 #9274

The reason why ASICM went down is because people are dumb, to put it plainly. I actually sold mid 4's two days ago because I knew peoples perceptions were wrong if they were thinking there was going to be a huge dividend today. Either way, we are still up a lot and now time to load up more shares. I can see ASICM falling more from here just because bearish sentiment scares weak investors. So be it, and let Bitcoin fall too so I can convert more worthless US dollars into Bitcoins and buy even more shares than I could before. Works out great for me. The weak investors can go run to the US stock exchange and have fun with that.. good luck you'll need it.

Yep, the BTC slide feels nasty but hopefully its "cheaper hamburger" time.
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July 04, 2013, 02:26:22 AM
 #9275

The reason why ASICM went down is because people are dumb, to put it plainly. I actually sold mid 4's two days ago because I knew peoples perceptions were wrong if they were thinking there was going to be a huge dividend today. Either way, we are still up a lot and now time to load up more shares. I can see ASICM falling more from here just because bearish sentiment scares weak investors. So be it, and let Bitcoin fall too so I can convert more worthless US dollars into Bitcoins and buy even more shares than I could before. Works out great for me. The weak investors can go run to the US stock exchange and have fun with that.. good luck you'll need it.

Yep, the BTC slide feels nasty but hopefully its "cheaper hamburger" time.
I hate my shares are direct shares.......It makes me stuck right here....

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July 04, 2013, 02:39:15 AM
 #9276

yeah, you can auction them but you certainly can't "play the stock-market" with them if they are direct.

I actually like the fact I can't "dabble" with my AM shares on the markets. Dabbling can lead to big losses as well as big gains. I'm settling for dabbling with "real" bitcoins instead, and investing for the long-term in AM.
velacreations
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July 04, 2013, 02:39:29 AM
 #9277

I hate my shares are direct shares.......It makes me stuck right here....

I will buy them for today's low, if that would make you feel better...  Smiley

SOSLOVE868
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July 04, 2013, 02:51:40 AM
 #9278



I hate my shares are direct shares.......It makes me stuck right here....



I've been selling off PT's in order to hold direct shares. If I hadn't just cleaned the last satoshi out of my wallets I'd offer to buy from you right now. In fact, if this dip in BTC holds, I might  buy some more BTC/AM. You selling? No need to be stuck.  All fair priced direct offerings that I've seen have been snapped up like candy thus far...
I think I will hold on these direct shares , because the price of PT dump so quickly, it make me non-sense to sell my shares at this time.
madams
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July 04, 2013, 03:27:31 AM
 #9279

yeah, you can auction them but you certainly can't "play the stock-market" with them if they are direct.

I actually like the fact I can't "dabble" with my AM shares on the markets. Dabbling can lead to big losses as well as big gains. I'm settling for dabbling with "real" bitcoins instead, and investing for the long-term in AM.

"Dabbling can lead to big losses as well as big gains."  Do you have a graph for that? Perhaps you should check your arse. Or is this just an observation?  Grin
Pierre
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July 04, 2013, 03:31:50 AM
 #9280

Yep, the BTC slide feels nasty but hopefully its "cheaper hamburger" time.

I hope the prices drop more, I'm not done buying hamburgers yet!
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