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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3896918 times)
freedomno1
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May 16, 2013, 07:52:16 AM
 #5041

Also true assuming they want to buy a company or if they want to make another one or extend the current one

Those are only a few examples, but the defining characteristics of a unique and unforeseen opportunity is that it is unforeseen and unique :-)

.b

Hmm Facebook Bitcoin Ebay guess twitter and even groupon all the IT opportunities tougher question is recognizing one of them and investing early, or making and creating a new one
Of course these are all online examples not physical ones lot of routes

Ah Either way sometimes as proven with ASIC cheap and efficient beats fancy and takes forever to do and still is not around Smiley
BFL superior non delivered stuff vs something on batch 2
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May 16, 2013, 07:54:47 AM
 #5042


I'm sorry to say, but with the latest dividend payout, my confidence in AM has fallen dramatically. I think it is irresponsible of them to pay out the equivalent of ฿60K in dividends per month, the equivalent of almost 50% of the entire Bitcoin coin production.

I'll happily admit I've sold most of my AM holdings after running numbers again that show me there is no possible way to recouperate a share price of ฿1.7, much less yield a profit, when you think beyond 2016.

At these price levels, investors have a negative ROI of 8% per year if friedcat manages to get his projected 10% of the total hash rate on average and only manages to sell ฿1000 worth of hardware per month. Even at 15% of the total hash rate, the annual yield looks like around 1%. At 20% of the hash rate on average, AM yields slightly better than a NASDAQ composite index fund.

.b

I get you don't like where ASICminer is going.  Would you sell me 5 shares of your ASICminer stock for $1.5 BTC each?  Use John K. as escrow.  Thanks.

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May 16, 2013, 07:59:13 AM
 #5043

I'm sorry to say, but with the latest dividend payout, my confidence in AM has fallen dramatically. I think it is irresponsible of them to pay out the equivalent of ฿60K in dividends per month, the equivalent of almost 50% of the entire Bitcoin coin production.

I get you don't like where ASICminer is going.  Would you sell me 5 shares of your ASICminer stock for $1.5 BTC each?  Use John K. as escrow.  Thanks.

Yeah, sure, I'm so stupid I'll give money away when I can sell them for more than that at an exchange.

I need to clarify that I don't like what AM did this week, and the previouc couple of weeks before that. I like AM in general. I think friedcat is great, but the company needs better financial management.

.b

muyuu
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May 16, 2013, 08:01:09 AM
 #5044

Ah, so this is the root of it. You have provided us with a giant wall of text, while rudely responding to Aureum_Coffee, in some unrealized attempt to convince yourself you did the right thing by taking your money and running. It's okay, and a very sound strategy to realize your profits when you are comfortable with your gains, but your actions do not limit ASICMINER from being more creative, diverse, and industrious than you can predict.


Try to be creative about this: The world has 10 coins. AM is currently paying 10 coins per cycle in dividends. How can you be creative, diverse, and industrious to get more than that?

The dividend that AM paid this week is 50% of the theoretical possible limit they can get from mining. They can kill Bitcoin to maintain this level, yes, but I don't think they will. All their competitors can fail, but I don't think they will.

Let's be crazy, then, and say that they generate dividends equivalent to 30% of the network for the next 44 months. At that rate, we'll see dividends at 0.018 per week, which would give us an ROI of 21 months. Great, right? 50% yield per year?

Except in 2016, at a known and predictable time, poof, 50% of the possible income and dividends disappear and thus the share value drops to 50%. Now you've lost 0.85 in a day. Or around a years worth of dividends at 30% hash rate.

It's still a profit, sure, but it's not even close to what people think at present, and it assumes that AM pays 30% of all coin production on average.

Can they maintain 30% for that long? I don't know. Their 262 TH will be a spit in the ocean in a year. AM needs funds to finance the next big thing, which needs to come on top of those 30%. Can all their competitors fail? Yeah, but I doubt they will.

Remember that hardware sales isn't really a factor here because that hardware needs to come from the maximum limit AM can produce. Whether they hash from it themselves over time or realize that hashrate immediately by selling isn't relevant except in temporarily boosting their dividends. Their customers will run the math when more purchase options are available. Selling hardware is at most a way to realize short-term capital, but doesn't really increase their long-term profitability when they pay sales out in the form of dividends.

Actually, screw all this, I'll publish my numbers and you can argue against those.

.b

It's quite possible that mining is a lot less profitable in 2016, due to the nature of the reward. Since we cannot anticipate this, it would be reckless not to set aside some of the short term profit and give it as dividend (a lot of which is owned by the board) so people can work out how to reinvest their coins.

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freedomno1
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May 16, 2013, 08:07:20 AM
Last edit: May 16, 2013, 08:42:34 AM by freedomno1
 #5045

To sum up some parts
The question is if the dividend should be distributed to maximize shareholder wealth leaving less funds for investment, or some held in reserve to diversify investments to expand into other industries since we know that when 2016 comes the income may decrease. Since we can anticipate this and to some extent mitigate that transitional effect as we have 3 years to do so, the question then becomes what industry's would ASIC be strong in and what would be a good or optimal place and location to diversify expand or relocate/build new assets to ensure long term wealth creation and growth. How much we should save and how the board should decide what industry ASIC should move into as a hedge to the decreased mining revenue in a couple of years.
Sort of a conflict over short term vs long term goals
Simply what makes me and you the most money not just now but later and builds on the wealth of the company over the long term outlook
Real economic growth Smiley

In other news Satoshidice is either having panic selling or really is removing USA gambling noms shares lol
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May 16, 2013, 08:49:29 AM
 #5046

Also, one note regarding all this jabbing about how much divident should be paid out: None of us isn't going to decide it. Friedcat (and his team, maybe, I don't know) holds over 50% of shares, so we can argue here until the last block is mined and it's not going to have any effect. About all these people who have made lenghty comments saying this and that about Apple or Microsoft or any other unrelated company, is there anyone who owns even 5000 shares that entitles to a seat in the board?
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May 16, 2013, 08:50:28 AM
 #5047

On the topic of other businesses AM could pursue that would increase the value of Bitcoin v fiat.

Assume that AM achieve this by leveraging their expertize in designing integrated circuits and producing them in low cost and in volume.

We know from history the value of Bitcoin will rise if more people use it. So put a chip in many hands that rewards people to own it but requires them to use Bitcoin to realize its value. I'm not thinking mining-related like the Erupter Blocks, something else. Something that billions of people could possess. I'm thinking whatever the 'it' is, it could live in a mobile phone.

I don't like signature campaigns.
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May 16, 2013, 08:53:24 AM
 #5048

On the topic of other businesses AM could pursue that would increase the value of Bitcoin v fiat.

Assume that AM achieve this by leveraging their expertize in designing integrated circuits at low cost and in volume.

We know from history the value of Bitcoin will rise if more people use it. So put a chip in many hands that rewards people to own it but requires them to use Bitcoin to realize its value. I'm not thinking mining-related like the Erupter Blocks, something else. Something that billions of people could possess. I'm thinking whatever the 'it' is, it could live in a mobile phone.

PocketMiner! Great idea!

USB-powered, but with internal battery and wifi. Put it in when you're home to charge battery and mine at higher speed, put it on your keychain and mine whenever you are near an open wifi-zone :-)

.b

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May 16, 2013, 09:03:54 AM
 #5049

On the topic of other businesses AM could pursue that would increase the value of Bitcoin v fiat.

Assume that AM achieve this by leveraging their expertize in designing integrated circuits at low cost and in volume.

We know from history the value of Bitcoin will rise if more people use it. So put a chip in many hands that rewards people to own it but requires them to use Bitcoin to realize its value. I'm not thinking mining-related like the Erupter Blocks, something else. Something that billions of people could possess. I'm thinking whatever the 'it' is, it could live in a mobile phone.

PocketMiner! Great idea!

USB-powered, but with internal battery and wifi. Put it in when you're home to charge battery and mine at higher speed, put it on your keychain and mine whenever you are near an open wifi-zone :-)

.b

I'm interested in what happened in Africa in the 1990's and 2000's. In many parts there infrastructure is poor, and liable to being unmaintained, stolen, or destroyed by conflict. Many parts of Africa have good mobile phone networks, though, as they're relatively cheap to deploy and can be deployed in numbers to provide redundancy (or even just moved around on trucks). If you said to a villager in many parts of Africa that his mobile phone can generate $2 a day if it does Bitcoin, he'd probably offer his daughter to you.

I don't like signature campaigns.
freedomno1
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May 16, 2013, 09:12:43 AM
Last edit: May 16, 2013, 09:29:13 AM by freedomno1
 #5050

Also, one note regarding all this jabbing about how much dividend should be paid out: None of us isn't going to decide it. Friedcat (and his team, maybe, I don't know) holds over 50% of shares, so we can argue here until the last block is mined and it's not going to have any effect. About all these people who have made lenghty comments saying this and that about Apple or Microsoft or any other unrelated company, is there anyone who owns even 5000 shares that entitles to a seat in the board?

Tat owns 666 Evil Dude will need to make it 777 soon ha-ha if not already
The exchanges are around 1000 now and havelock's is just a week old so the passthrus will get a seat it was part of the release based on the combination of shares so yes in time it may be allocated a seat
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=199449.msg2162063#msg2162063

Today's volume and price behavior is a blip in the life of ASICMINER. Do you know how many shares have been imported into ASICMINER-PT this week? Maybe 500 or so. G.ASICMINER? About 200. The TAT assets? about 200. Yet somehow the average price is still over 1.7. Only about 21% of the publicly held shares even exist on an exchange. My point is, MANY people are still buying, and MANY MANY more are still holding.

On the topic of other businesses AM could pursue that would increase the value of Bitcoin v fiat.

Assume that AM achieve this by leveraging their expertize in designing integrated circuits at low cost and in volume.

We know from history the value of Bitcoin will rise if more people use it. So put a chip in many hands that rewards people to own it but requires them to use Bitcoin to realize its value. I'm not thinking mining-related like the Erupter Blocks, something else. Something that billions of people could possess. I'm thinking whatever the 'it' is, it could live in a mobile phone.

PocketMiner! Great idea!

USB-powered, but with internal battery and wifi. Put it in when you're home to charge battery and mine at higher speed, put it on your keychain and mine whenever you are near an open wifi-zone :-)

.b

See smart ideas that can play on AM's strengths and help develop bitcoin putting it into mobile phones could be an expansion of the business
Nice one Pocket as for who can make the decisions well the board will but I'm sure they will accept input and ideas too shareholder proposals etc brainstorming does help Smiley

Trading Phones for wifus Hmm I guess that's a form of aids Smiley But helping Africa solve some currency issues i'm all for that


I'm interested in what happened in Africa in the 1990's and 2000's. In many parts there infrastructure is poor, and liable to being unmaintained, stolen, or destroyed by conflict. Many parts of Africa have good mobile phone networks, though, as they're relatively cheap to deploy and can be deployed in numbers to provide redundancy (or even just moved around on trucks). If you said to a villager in many parts of Africa that his mobile phone can generate $2 a day if it does Bitcoin, he'd probably offer his daughter to you.
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May 16, 2013, 09:22:30 AM
 #5051

Growth potential within the current bitcoin community is limited... sure, we probably are saturated at the moment.

BUT as new players enter the market, they will buy coins... and then possibly want mining equipment, which is then sold my ASICMINER.  If new people buy mining equipment... people that previously bought equipment... will need to buy MORE equipment to keep up, this drives in more profit.

All this while more and more people start using bitcoin day to day (I pay my utility bills in bitcoin now, who would have thought of that a year ago) growing the economy as a whole... which in turn drives value into ASICMINER.

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May 16, 2013, 09:46:59 AM
 #5052

Except in 2016, at a known and predictable time, poof, 50% of the possible income and dividends disappear and thus the share value drops to 50%. Now you've lost 0.85 in a day. Or around a years worth of dividends at 30% hash rate.
- OR - BTCUSD doubles, hence while you are earning half BTC as before, you are actually earning the same equivalent USD.

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May 16, 2013, 09:48:00 AM
 #5053

Except in 2016, at a known and predictable time, poof, 50% of the possible income and dividends disappear and thus the share value drops to 50%. Now you've lost 0.85 in a day. Or around a years worth of dividends at 30% hash rate.
- OR - BTCUSD doubles, hence while you are earning half BTC as before, you are actually earning the same equivalent USD.


Yeah, and just imagine the insane profits if we measure in Zimbabwean dollars!

ZIM$ for official AM currency now!

.b

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May 16, 2013, 10:00:04 AM
 #5054

To sum up some parts
The question is if the dividend should be distributed to maximize shareholder wealth leaving less funds for investment, or some held in reserve to diversify investments to expand into other industries since we know that when 2016 comes the income may decrease. Since we can anticipate this and to some extent mitigate that transitional effect as we have 3 years to do so, the question then becomes what industry's would ASIC be strong in and what would be a good or optimal place and location to diversify expand or relocate/build new assets to ensure long term wealth creation and growth. How much we should save and how the board should decide what industry ASIC should move into as a hedge to the decreased mining revenue in a couple of years.
Sort of a conflict over short term vs long term goals
Simply what makes me and you the most money not just now but later and builds on the wealth of the company over the long term outlook
Real economic growth Smiley

In other news Satoshidice is either having panic selling or really is removing USA gambling noms shares lol


I think diversifying outside bitcoinworld will lead to low revenue... there arent much investments outside that are nearly as effektive as this one here. On the other hand i dont see the block halving that bad. It can be foresseen so everyone can adapt... the last halving showed that it goes through smootly... nothing bad happened... i dont see that this will change with next halving...


Wow thorough reply just does my reply Cheesy
I think diversification can lead to lower revenue but pocketminer had a good idea of building chips for other things if ASIC does hedge a bit, doesn't need to be outside bitcoinworld could be inside bitcoinworld but we can leave options like the internet and real stuff on the list. It really depends on what seems like the best choice if we go that route and i'm sure there will be a lot of discussion before a plan is executed and made.
And as they say the horse that doesn't participate in the race can never win. ASIC took a risk building these devices so we will never know unless we try. Not out of desperation mind you but out of planning a well thought out strategy. Your right halving day affects all miners and were still seeing exponential growth of pc power Smiley so the market will adapt to that but it doesn't hurt to keep looking for new possibilities and having the window open to embrace new ideas. After all that's why we invested in bitcoin in the first place Cheesy

Geh it's all in quote leaves it that way lol

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May 16, 2013, 10:25:43 AM
 #5055


I'm interested in what happened in Africa in the 1990's and 2000's. In many parts there infrastructure is poor, and liable to being unmaintained, stolen, or destroyed by conflict. Many parts of Africa have good mobile phone networks, though, as they're relatively cheap to deploy and can be deployed in numbers to provide redundancy (or even just moved around on trucks). If you said to a villager in many parts of Africa that his mobile phone can generate $2 a day if it does Bitcoin, he'd probably offer his daughter to you.

I've had a couple more thoughts riffing on this idea over a glass of wine. Yes, it is after 5 where I am.  Smiley

Make the chips as cheap as possible, maybe even *pay* mobile phone makers to bundle them into handsets.

Consider collaborating with other leading Bitcoin miners to fund development. Design goals are the best performance possible with low power. It will be designed to go into a cheap phone, so sleek design is not so important, i.e., the phone might be a "brick" with a larger battery.


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May 16, 2013, 11:10:45 AM
 #5056

I think thats a very strange view. You think investors bough apple stock because they dont pay dividends? Apple has stockpiled large sums of money and it doesnt do anything with it. Its simply useless money.

I think you should tell that to stock holders. Perhaps they'll realize you are right and everyone else is wrong and just give you their shares in appreciation.

I think you should also call up Warren Buffett and tell him because he's clearly doing it wrong by not paying dividends. I'm sure he'll donate his $53.5 billions to you in appreciation for setting him straight.

I'm sorry but I'm getting somewhat tired from explaining this over and over again, so I'm going to skip the rest of your post. You clearly lack some fundamental understanding of how shares and stock markets work.

.b

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May 16, 2013, 11:42:01 AM
 #5057

I'm sorry but I'm getting somewhat tired from explaining this over and over again

Promise?

Beware the weak hands!
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May 16, 2013, 11:46:21 AM
 #5058

I'm sorry but I'm getting somewhat tired from explaining this over and over again

Promise?
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May 16, 2013, 12:51:11 PM
 #5059

There will be more auctions this week?

Auctions of what?
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May 16, 2013, 12:55:11 PM
 #5060

There will be more auctions this week?

ASICMiner Block Eruptor Blades
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