ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[canth]

25,000,000 Act Mining shares, 10 mil are the public ones

True, although until the initial .0025 per share is paid back, only the 10mil are actively receiving dividends.

[canth]

I discovered http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator some time ago, the charts aren't bad either: http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty.

I reckon their estimate for the next difficulty is too high (537 million, or 37.46% increase). I'm tipping a 27% increase, or ~495 million. The rate of finding blocks has stalled over the last couple of days so I don't see a bumper increase this time. Possibly this is due to most of KnC's first batch being delivered, and there being a temporary lull. It will only be for a short time, though (i.e., it won't be long enough to turn those unprofitable miners back to making ROI).

I think their estimate is completely right. No doubt we will reach 537 for the next jump.
Do you want to bet?  

BTW, thanks for the info dexX7 I didn't know this website, and looks nice.

Small wager? 0.5 BTC What's your over and under?

As an FYI, KNC has finally released a version of their firmware which includes cgminer improvements from ckolivas - https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-60. Most miners get a 2-3% bump from the software while a fair number of lesser performing units have increased 10-20%. My guess is this brings another 100T to the next diff change, on top of whatever is shipping.

[adara]

With the geometric increase in difficulty and ASICMiner not increasing its mining share even if friedcat where to pay full divs, they will be lower than what he has been paying even when withholding.
Mining performance for ASICMiner is a disaster. Hardware sales are inline and not growing. Don't expect repeat customers when they are fucked with ROI. If they lose money they will not buy again. Easy stuff. You can not grow a company by f***ng your customers.
Many hardware competitors with better pricing now and with instant or almost instant delivery including Avalon and Knc, plus others coming soon. The cat has really been fried now.
Hardware prices will decrease rapidly at this point and it will be harder and harder for ASICMiner to stay in any leadership position at all, it has already lost the train due to bad decisions at critical points. The cat is fried.

[BitThink]

Which bad decision?
Sell instead of mining? You already know that self mining is worse.
Sell price is too high? I don't think that's reasonable from an investors perspective. Even for the miner, who knew the difficulty will increase so fast then?
Failure in Gen2 chips? That's not a decision. It's an unfortunate result, but certainly not because he decided not to design Gen 2 at all.
Collect money for Gen 3? Without this, I believe the stock price will go to 0.

I personally lose more than 30BTC on AM, but I think it is my own fault in bad evaluation. Friedcat already returned more than 500% to IPO investors, I don't think he is responsible in pleasing us, who bought atoverpriced shares. The money we lost went to the sellers, not AM.

[Lohoris]

Don't expect repeat customers when they are fucked with ROI. If they lose money they will not buy again. Easy stuff.

Wrong.
The numbers were plain and simple, but those customers refused to do some math and blindly bought random stuff.
We're not talking about dvd players, mind, we're talking about "devices that create money", so there's really NO excuse not to do your math and see if it will be profitable.
This has two implications:
1. if they've lost money, it's entirely their own fault
2. since they are so brain-dead, they'll likely come back anyway, they might not even realise they have lost money (they didn't check before, likely they aren't checking now nor they will later)

[BitThink]

I don't think the miners are all stupid. They just had wrong prediction of the hash rate increase rate. Actually without bitfury, they could've had made even, or at least lose much less.

[adara]

Don't expect repeat customers when they are fucked with ROI. If they lose money they will not buy again. Easy stuff.

Wrong.
The numbers were plain and simple, but those customers refused to do some math and blindly bought random stuff.
We're not talking about dvd players, mind, we're talking about "devices that create money", so there's really NO excuse not to do your math and see if it will be profitable.
This has two implications:
1. if they've lost money, it's entirely their own fault
2. since they are so brain-dead, they'll likely come back anyway, they might not even realise they have lost money (they didn't check before, likely they aren't checking now nor they will later)

Not a good foundation for any business anyhow. To profit from other people mistakes. Don't you think? Anyway miners are getting smarter now.
With so many competitors about to deliver and with much better pricing, the market will likely establish a fair price for mining devices.
Being dependent on hardware sales for profit, like ASICMiner is at this point, is a very low margin business.
Do your math and you will see why divs will go lower and lower.

[adara]

Which bad decision?
Sell instead of mining? You already know that self mining is worse.
Sell price is too high? I don't think that's reasonable from an investors perspective. Even for the miner, who knew the difficulty will increase so fast then?
Failure in Gen2 chips? That's not a decision. It's an unfortunate result, but certainly not because he decided not to design Gen 2 at all.
Collect money for Gen 3? Without this, I believe the stock price will go to 0.

I personally lose more than 30BTC on AM, but I think it is my own fault in bad evaluation. Friedcat already returned more than 500% to IPO investors, I don't think he is responsible in pleasing us, who bought atoverpriced shares. The money we lost went to the sellers, not AM.

The main mistake is not maintaining the lead while you have it. It's a fatal mistake.

[neilol]

Openly bearish sentiment in the AM thread? Sounds like the time to buy

[Lohoris]

Openly bearish sentiment in the AM thread? Sounds like the time to buy

Put your money where your mouth is.

[adara]

Openly bearish sentiment in the AM thread? Sounds like the time to buy

Put your money where your mouth is.

The blood is not on the streets yet and there will be blood on the streets.
That will be the time to buy.

[apollojmr]

Openly bearish sentiment in the AM thread? Sounds like the time to buy

Put your money where your mouth is.

It's an awesome time to buy! Cheap shares of the best stock the bitcoin world has ever seen! There is not one stock that has ever risen as high as AM. It will rise again!

[reactor]

Which bad decision?
Sell instead of mining? You already know that self mining is worse.
Sell price is too high? I don't think that's reasonable from an investors perspective. Even for the miner, who knew the difficulty will increase so fast then?
Failure in Gen2 chips? That's not a decision. It's an unfortunate result, but certainly not because he decided not to design Gen 2 at all.
Collect money for Gen 3? Without this, I believe the stock price will go to 0.

I personally lose more than 30BTC on AM, but I think it is my own fault in bad evaluation. Friedcat already returned more than 500% to IPO investors, I don't think he is responsible in pleasing us, who bought atoverpriced shares. The money we lost went to the sellers, not AM.

The main mistake is not maintaining the lead while you have it. It's a fatal mistake.

^^  This right here sums it up.  AM was the only delivering vendor who consistently put hardware in the hands of miners for a long while.  They basically bridged the gap between the early Avalons and the trickle of BFL shipments that started and other vendors like BitFury, custom-BitFury, KNC, etc.  They played a very important role during that timeframe of keeping folks excited about mining while they waited for pre-orders from every corner of the world.

It is actually very surprising to watch the AM fall from grace.  All the right factors were in place - close to cheap manufacturing, decently cheap power options, an apparent brain trust who was capable of designing hardware, etc...  How they fell so far behind is my biggest question.  It was obvious the USB and Blade market was drying up fast a while back, now people are ticked about share prices (again their own fault), have lost faith in FC/AM due to lack of any substantial info in regards to "what comes next" in a mining market that is somewhat toxic to enter right now, and to be perfectly honest there are other options out there for people to risk money on.  I hope for an AM renaissance as well, but I'm not keeping all my eggs in this basket.

While AM may have a plan in place to shake the market back up (or at least re-enter in a meaningful way), confidence is huge and people are lacking confidence in AM.  It's perfectly okay to fall behind if you're secretly working on a bomb you can drop once all the other vendors have become complacent, but that bomb might be too late when you can't find any hardware that is on the nice side of the "worth the money" investment.

[BitThink]

It's lucky they got 130nm chips work and produced before anyone else. But then they failed in design a good 65nm chip, and others did. Now they are testing their luck in Gen 3. Things are just this simple. It's not reasonable to assume once they are the leader, they always lead, especially in mining industry, where products become obsolete not in years, but in months.

[jeffshed]

They probably got complacent due to there own successes:

They were just sitting back and watching the ridiculous amount of coins roll in when they should have been expediting 28nm development. now they're loosing the race

I mean they were selling the first blade for so much. it'd be hard not to get blinded by the fortune.

[chriswilmer]

They probably got complacent due to there own successes:

They were just sitting back and watching the ridiculous amount of coins roll in when they should have been expediting 28nm development. now they're loosing the race

I mean they were selling the first blade for so much. it'd be hard not to get blinded by the fortune.

I think ASICMINER is thinking very far ahead, possibly too far ahead for most shareholders, with things like immersion cooling. Bitcoins, and bitcoin mining, are going to be around for the next decade at least.

[muyuu]

They probably got complacent due to there own successes:

They were just sitting back and watching the ridiculous amount of coins roll in when they should have been expediting 28nm development. now they're loosing the race

I mean they were selling the first blade for so much. it'd be hard not to get blinded by the fortune.

I think ASICMINER is thinking very far ahead, possibly too far ahead for most shareholders, with things like immersion cooling. Bitcoins, and bitcoin mining, are going to be around for the next decade at least.

Yeah but now we can still make plenty of block reward coins, and the transition towards fees is still rather unknown in terms of profitability.

[Lohoris]

Yeah but now we can still make plenty of block reward coins, and the transition towards fees is still rather unknown in terms of profitability.

If the known fails, you try the unknown.
Mining failed for AM.

[ex-trader]

Yeah but now we can still make plenty of block reward coins, and the transition towards fees is still rather unknown in terms of profitability.

If the known fails, you try the unknown.
Mining failed for AM.

Agreed, but is AM worth $150m+ as a company trying something new....

[superduh]

Yeah but now we can still make plenty of block reward coins, and the transition towards fees is still rather unknown in terms of profitability.

If the known fails, you try the unknown.
Mining failed for AM.

people have extremely short spans in bitcoin world. fear too much a few months of uncertainty as if it is the end. friedcat has proven that he's a decent businessman. if you trust him then stop thinking about a few months of issues and think long term. this is a long term company with long term potential.