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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3901407 times)
puck2
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October 09, 2013, 10:39:02 PM
 #13661

What are you talking about? AM is only worth 0.2B/share right now. Dec. will see AM @ 0.1B/share. The other 0.1B/share is paid via dividend.

What are you talking about?

Asicminer is worth far more than 0.2B/share. Recent auctions (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=306865.msg3309448#new) are selling shares for well over 1B.
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huhai0978
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October 09, 2013, 10:41:40 PM
 #13662

What are you talking about? AM is only worth 0.2B/share right now. Dec. will see AM @ 0.1B/share. The other 0.1B/share is paid via dividend.

What are you talking about?

Asicminer is worth far more than 0.2B/share. Recent auctions (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=306865.msg3309448#new) are selling shares for well over 1B.

OK. Buy AM share for 1B and keep it for 3 months. You will find out what I mean.
puck2
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October 09, 2013, 11:04:55 PM
 #13663

What are you talking about? AM is only worth 0.2B/share right now. Dec. will see AM @ 0.1B/share. The other 0.1B/share is paid via dividend.

What are you talking about?

Asicminer is worth far more than 0.2B/share. Recent auctions (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=306865.msg3309448#new) are selling shares for well over 1B.

OK. Buy AM share for 1B and keep it for 3 months. You will find out what I mean.

Oh I bought for far less and have held for far longer. I am here for the long haul. Thanks for the suggestion, though.
Jutarul
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October 09, 2013, 11:06:24 PM
Last edit: October 09, 2013, 11:16:46 PM by Jutarul
 #13664

What are you talking about? AM is only worth 0.2B/share right now. Dec. will see AM @ 0.1B/share. The other 0.1B/share is paid via dividend.
new bitcoins till 2020 are about 5 million. Assuming that profit margins from mining are >50% on an average basis (i.e. the purchasing power growth of the bitcoin correlates to hash power growth ) we're looking at about 2.5 million bitcoin net profit. Since IT industries are usually dominated by a handful of players, the expected long term profit per player is around 0.5 million, which puts AM well above 1.

And that ignores potential armsrace, defensive mining, escalation of fees, hardware replacement and cryptographic mining tech taking over other industries, like notary services or stock/ownership tracking.

If all you do is own bitcoin, you don't get any exposure to these potential outcomes.

The ASICMINER Project https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
"The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.", Milton Friedman
huhai0978
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October 09, 2013, 11:15:08 PM
 #13665

What are you talking about? AM is only worth 0.2B/share right now. Dec. will see AM @ 0.1B/share. The other 0.1B/share is paid via dividend.

What are you talking about?

Asicminer is worth far more than 0.2B/share. Recent auctions (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=306865.msg3309448#new) are selling shares for well over 1B.

OK. Buy AM share for 1B and keep it for 3 months. You will find out what I mean.

Oh I bought for far less and have held for far longer. I am here for the long haul. Thanks for the suggestion, though.
See u in 3 months then.
puck2
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October 09, 2013, 11:16:49 PM
 #13666

Quick Update

We are still on track of accumulating reinvestment funds, continuing from last month, so please expect less-than-raw-income dividends in the next few weeks. The financials will be given out in October 20s, as mentioned in the last update.

Self-retained (not sold) Hashrate distribution:

Air cooling datacenter - 47TH/s
Under franchising - 19TH/s
Immersion cooling - 5TH/s with 3-5TH/s per day towards 60TH/s in total.

Thanks! The fact that there are dividends at all during this accumulation and reinvestment is astounding! I appreciate all that ASICMINER (friedcat + the board) is doing to advance the Bitcoin project as well as distribution of mining income.
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October 09, 2013, 11:35:26 PM
 #13667

The hash rate increasees 25%/cycle. A cycle is about 12 daya. Moors' law is 2x in 18 months. U r living in ur own dream.
Learn about the sigmoid function and combine that with a sub-exponential growth of the asymptotic value over the long term. Have a nice day.

The ASICMINER Project https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
"The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.", Milton Friedman
ninjarobot
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October 10, 2013, 12:20:41 AM
 #13668

The whole mining industry is plummeting, not just AM. 25% hashing rate increase/cycle means the mining co must pay 25% more to keep up with the trend. The profit margin goes to zero!!!

Nature abhors a vacuum so mining will quickly become a 0-sum or very low margin business. At least when it comes to mining. There appears to be a constant supply of fools to sell hardware to. So I'm not worried about low AM mining hashrates - Selling hardware is the name of the game now.
VolanicEruptor
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October 10, 2013, 01:23:10 AM
 #13669

lol I love how the trading on BF has come to a complete standstill since the FC update.  Obviously nobody knows how they should be trading this right now..

I guess we're all just sitting tight until something happens lol

BitThink
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October 10, 2013, 01:49:18 AM
 #13670

lol I love how the trading on BF has come to a complete standstill since the FC update.  Obviously nobody knows how they should be trading this right now..

I guess we're all just sitting tight until something happens lol
They are waiting for Ukyo to confirm shares can be converted to direct.
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October 10, 2013, 01:51:10 AM
 #13671

The whole mining industry is plummeting, not just AM. 25% hashing rate increase/cycle means the mining co must pay 25% more to keep up with the trend. The profit margin goes to zero!!!

Nature abhors a vacuum so mining will quickly become a 0-sum or very low margin business. At least when it comes to mining. There appears to be a constant supply of fools to sell hardware to. So I'm not worried about low AM mining hashrates - Selling hardware is the name of the game now.
There are more choices to buy mining hardwares, and the price drops exponentially.
VolanicEruptor
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October 10, 2013, 01:54:43 AM
 #13672

lol I love how the trading on BF has come to a complete standstill since the FC update.  Obviously nobody knows how they should be trading this right now..

I guess we're all just sitting tight until something happens lol
They are waiting for Ukyo to confirm shares can be converted to direct.

Right, so if he says yes, then the price will likely come back up, as US investors won't be scared away from AM?

BitThink
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October 10, 2013, 02:13:30 AM
 #13673

There are more choices to buy mining hardwares
Unless it's non-exploding hardware.

The main problem of KnC is not exploding, but their production rate. People are not complaining about asking refund, but the long queue waiting for delivery. Currently the main advantage of AM is a reliable product line that can finish mass order in time. But sooner or later, the competitors will secure their product line too.

It seems the new data center in Hong Kong is ready, but the capacity is only 60TH (fully deployed after 20 days, with 2-3Th added daily), maybe due to the limit of power supply. So around 400TH needs to be sold as soon as possible, and friedcat has increased the Ad spending. So in short term, the profit of AM mostly depends on how hardware sale goes well. Moreover, with Bitfury and KnC as the competetors now, I think the price will decrease to around $16-$20/GH, around 1/4 of previous price.

In long term, gen2 chips cannot be postponed any more, or AM has to be converted to non-mining company totally. If currently the design and testing of gen2 has been finished, then there's no reason not to mass produce it. Even they are not sold well, self mining with them are still profitable. Suppose the watt/G reduce to 1/3 of gen-1, the self-mining capacity can increase to 300TH (from current 100TH), with the same power supply limit.
VolanicEruptor
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October 10, 2013, 02:23:08 AM
 #13674

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We made an order of another brand of power chips which are about two weeks late. In October this will provide another 500TH/s (Gen1).

This was in his second last update (September 29th).. those power chips must still be late, as he didn't mention them in his last update..

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October 10, 2013, 02:27:18 AM
 #13675

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We made an order of another brand of power chips which are about two weeks late. In October this will provide another 500TH/s (Gen1).

This was in his second last update (September 29th).. those power chips must still be late, as he didn't mention them in his last update..
Self-mining hashing rate will increase 60TH (2-3TH daily), and I believe this is from the 500THs (Gen1).
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October 10, 2013, 02:30:12 AM
 #13676

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We made an order of another brand of power chips which are about two weeks late. In October this will provide another 500TH/s (Gen1).

This was in his second last update (September 29th).. those power chips must still be late, as he didn't mention them in his last update..
Self-mining hashing rate will increase 60TH (2-3TH daily), and I believe this is from the 500THs (Gen1).

Okay, so he was only planning on using 12% of that for his own mining?  The rest is to be sold?

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October 10, 2013, 02:35:44 AM
 #13677

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We made an order of another brand of power chips which are about two weeks late. In October this will provide another 500TH/s (Gen1).

This was in his second last update (September 29th).. those power chips must still be late, as he didn't mention them in his last update..
Self-mining hashing rate will increase 60TH (2-3TH daily), and I believe this is from the 500THs (Gen1).

Okay, so he was only planning on using 12% of that for his own mining?  The rest is to be sold?
That's my guess. Most likely due to power supply limit. The Gen-1 chips consume 7watt/G, so 420KW for 60TH (the new data center), and 300KW for 43TH (the old data center). Moreover, if they have enough power supply and data center space, there's no need for Franchising.

BTW, Bitfury chip consumes 1w/G, so with the same 300KW power supply, they can hash at 300TH. Now we can see that even with free electricity, the watt per GH still makes a lot of sense.
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October 10, 2013, 02:43:51 AM
 #13678

There are more choices to buy mining hardwares
Unless it's non-exploding hardware.



In long term, gen2 chips cannot be postponed any more, or AM has to be converted to non-mining company totally. If currently the design and testing of gen2 has been finished, then there's no reason not to mass produce it. Even they are not sold well, self mining with them are still profitable. Suppose the watt/G reduce to 1/3 of gen-1, the self-mining capacity can increase to 300TH (from current 100TH), with the same power supply limit.

I think what you said makes a lot of sense and I agree with it.

But additionally, I would also consider another possibility that if the price per GH is right (or cheapest), for those who at least live in countries with very cheap power, then you could imagine a scenario where Asicminer's chips, even though older gen and using much more power, still may be the most attractive option for some long-scale and hobbyist miners.

Sure the watt/G is hugely important... but as well, price per gh is also paramount.  Maybe I'm confusing things, but just saying, it is conceivable to me to have a successful product of 130nm asic miners if the make up for their shortcomings in selling price. Finally, rushing to market with a gen 2 at this point  -- if you have a proven gen 1 product that you can economically produce and sell -- may not be the best plan. Instead, getting a lab set up, and hire some smart-folk, and making a great 2nd gen chip instead of late-coming average gen 2 chip would be a better alternative.

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October 10, 2013, 02:58:21 AM
 #13679

The power logistics alone make it a pretty unattractive option for a farm considering what you need to be competitive.
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October 10, 2013, 03:03:33 AM
 #13680

There are more choices to buy mining hardwares
Unless it's non-exploding hardware.



In long term, gen2 chips cannot be postponed any more, or AM has to be converted to non-mining company totally. If currently the design and testing of gen2 has been finished, then there's no reason not to mass produce it. Even they are not sold well, self mining with them are still profitable. Suppose the watt/G reduce to 1/3 of gen-1, the self-mining capacity can increase to 300TH (from current 100TH), with the same power supply limit.

I think what you said makes a lot of sense and I agree with it.

But additionally, I would also consider another possibility that if the price per GH is right (or cheapest), for those who at least live in countries with very cheap power, then you could imagine a scenario where Asicminer's chips, even though older gen and using much more power, still may be the most attractive option for some long-scale and hobbyist miners.

Sure the watt/G is hugely important... but as well, price per gh is also paramount.  Maybe I'm confusing things, but just saying, it is conceivable to me to have a successful product of 130nm asic miners if the make up for their shortcomings in selling price. Finally, rushing to market with a gen 2 at this point  -- if you have a proven gen 1 product that you can economically produce and sell -- may not be the best plan. Instead, getting a lab set up, and hire some smart-folk, and making a great 2nd gen chip instead of late-coming average gen 2 chip would be a better alternative.



Gen-3 chips are already under research, and a lab is already founded and the researcher candidates are decided already, all according to the second latest update. But that's far far away in the bitcoin time scale. Even everything goes smoothly and the gen-3 chips are successfully designed in time, it takes at least 2 months for design and testing and 2 months for producing testing chips and another 2 months for mass production. So we are very lucky if we can benefit from Gen-3 chips in March 2014.

Meanwhile, the Gen-1 chips can be sold $20/G on Oct, $10/G on Nov, $5/G on Dec. It will become not profitable at all in next year. So if the current 500TH are sold well, then at best there're another 500TH to be sold this year.  If not, then these 500TH is the last batch of Gen-1 Chips.

Without Gen-2 Chips, AM can do nothing for at least 3 months (Jan 2014 - March 2014) except mining with the current 200TH (less than 0.5% then). That's the reason I said AM has to turn into a non-mining company (providing board producing, cooling solution, and deploy service as friedcat said in his post before) if they don't order Gen2 Chips immediately.
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