ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[chairforce1]

Havelock asks are now at 0.21 BTC/share.

no....?

[1713440993]

1713440993

[1713440993]

1713440993

[Vycid]

Havelock asks are now at 0.21 BTC/share.

no....?

My mistake, I seem to have gotten the ask wall from another security.

Well Seb put up a big auction so the markets are due for a reaction
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345248.0

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

[freedomno1]

Well Seb put up a big auction so the markets are due for a reaction
Well the FB bidders will be watching now too 
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345248.0

[velacreations]

FC said 9000 cubes, and they are charging at least 1 btc for each cube, so yeah, 9000 btc for the total is possible.  That also means that at least ~3000 btc worth of cubes have been sold already.

3000 btc is .0075 per share.

Incorrect.

Incorrect on what?  Could you explain where and how that we are incorrect?

You seem to assume 100% profit (i.e. you don't deduce anything for the cost of hardware/shipping/etc).

But yes, 3000/400000=0.0075

1. cost of hardware was paid for before production (he took it out of our dividends, remember?)
2. costs right now include advertising and shipping, which should be less than 10% of the sales price.

The fact that they are charging more than 1.1 btc should make my calculation still right.  I was hoping Canary would show me where I'm wrong, maybe they are charging less than 1 btc for the cubes, I don't know.

[Bananery]

By the way... friedcat still is only paying divs to 400,000 shares? I checked the feeder addresses and it doesnt look like divs for another 400,000 shares are going away. But friedcat and his team has to earn too somehow. Maybe my look at the addresses wasnt good enough only.

He always paid for all 400,000 shares. Bitfountain owns around 59% of those 400,000 shares. So 59% of all dividends go to the founders, FriedCat and few others.

[freedomno1]

By the way... friedcat still is only paying divs to 400,000 shares? I checked the feeder addresses and it doesnt look like divs for another 400,000 shares are going away. But friedcat and his team has to earn too somehow. Maybe my look at the addresses wasnt good enough only.

He always paid for all 400,000 shares. Bitfountain owns around 59% of those 400,000 shares. So 59% of all dividends go to the founders, FriedCat and few others.

Not entirely correct until the IPO was fully rebated  100% of Divs went to the shareholders
But after that your point is correct

[shawshankinmate37927]

By the way... friedcat still is only paying divs to 400,000 shares? I checked the feeder addresses and it doesnt look like divs for another 400,000 shares are going away. But friedcat and his team has to earn too somehow. Maybe my look at the addresses wasnt good enough only.

He always paid for all 400,000 shares. Bitfountain owns around 59% of those 400,000 shares. So 59% of all dividends go to the founders, FriedCat and few others.

Just curious.  What's the story behind that additional 9% of shares that went back to BF?  Did they not sell at IPO?

[stripykitteh]

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

Really? I don't see how. The auction price is below the exchange price (0.29 v 0.37) but there's no telling where it will end up in a week.

When Seb lowered his starting bid to 0.29 it sucked the market down from ~0.45 to ~0.37. Holding shares at the moment seems like a bad situation. You've got little prospect of any price jump while the auction is running, unless bidders are interested in paying more than where the exchange price was at the start of the auction.

But you are as bright as a button so tell me where I've gone wrong.

[jimmothy]

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

Really? I don't see how. The auction price is below the exchange price (0.29 v 0.37) but there's no telling where it will end up in a week.

When Seb lowered his starting bid to 0.29 it sucked the market down from ~0.45 to ~0.37. Holding shares at the moment seems like a bad situation. You've got little prospect of any price jump while the auction is running, unless bidders are interested in paying more than where the exchange price was at the start of the auction.

But you are as bright as a button so tell me where I've gone wrong.

Seb did not "suck" the market down. Every time FC makes an announcement the price goes up and then adjusts back to 30% apr based on the last dividend. Dividends this week look like around 0.0025 so that would lead to 0.43 @ 30% apr.

[stripykitteh]

Seb did not "suck" the market down. Every time FC makes an announcement the price goes up and then adjusts back to 30% apr based on the last dividend. Dividends this week look like around 0.0025 so that would lead to 0.43 @ 30% apr.

I guess we'll know how that theory looks when the auction is run and done. I'm tipping it'll pull the price down, but I'm just spit-balling it.

[Vycid]

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

Really? I don't see how. The auction price is below the exchange price (0.29 v 0.37) but there's no telling where it will end up in a week.

When Seb lowered his starting bid to 0.29 it sucked the market down from ~0.45 to ~0.37. Holding shares at the moment seems like a bad situation. You've got little prospect of any price jump while the auction is running, unless bidders are interested in paying more than where the exchange price was at the start of the auction.

But you are as bright as a button so tell me where I've gone wrong.

Seb is selling 1240 shares at an auction start price of .29 each. I think that's something like 0.75% of publicly traded shares? There are only 13381 AM1 shares on Havelock, for comparison.

The Havelock volume in the last month was 6970 shares. If total monthly volume is 6970 and 1240 shares are suddenly offered at 25% below market, the price is going to go down globally - possibly even more than 25%. We'll see how much demand there is.

So if you're holding shares on Havelock, it seems like a simple matter to sell your shares and bid on Seb's auction. Your alternative is holding those shares as the Havelock price drops.

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.

[BitThink]

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

Really? I don't see how. The auction price is below the exchange price (0.29 v 0.37) but there's no telling where it will end up in a week.

When Seb lowered his starting bid to 0.29 it sucked the market down from ~0.45 to ~0.37. Holding shares at the moment seems like a bad situation. You've got little prospect of any price jump while the auction is running, unless bidders are interested in paying more than where the exchange price was at the start of the auction.

But you are as bright as a button so tell me where I've gone wrong.

Seb is selling 1240 shares at an auction start price of .29 each. I think that's something like 0.75% of publicly traded shares? There are only 13381 AM1 shares on Havelock, for comparison.

The Havelock volume in the last month was 6970 shares. If total monthly volume is 6970 and 1240 shares are suddenly offered at 25% below market, the price is going to go down globally - possibly even more than 25%. We'll see how much demand there is.

So if you're holding shares on Havelock, it seems like a simple matter to sell your shares and bid on Seb's auction. Your alternative is holding those shares as the Havelock price drops.

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.

Even without the arbitrage, considering almost all the informed potential buyers will be attracted to the auction and leave Havelock almost no adding bids, the AM1 price will drop for certain.
Moreover, selling 1320 shares is not so different to a flat rate sale in my opinion, so I don't think the final price will be significantly higher than 0.29.

[twbt]

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

Really? I don't see how. The auction price is below the exchange price (0.29 v 0.37) but there's no telling where it will end up in a week.

When Seb lowered his starting bid to 0.29 it sucked the market down from ~0.45 to ~0.37. Holding shares at the moment seems like a bad situation. You've got little prospect of any price jump while the auction is running, unless bidders are interested in paying more than where the exchange price was at the start of the auction.

But you are as bright as a button so tell me where I've gone wrong.

Seb is selling 1240 shares at an auction start price of .29 each. I think that's something like 0.75% of publicly traded shares? There are only 13381 AM1 shares on Havelock, for comparison.

The Havelock volume in the last month was 6970 shares. If total monthly volume is 6970 and 1240 shares are suddenly offered at 25% below market, the price is going to go down globally - possibly even more than 25%. We'll see how much demand there is.

So if you're holding shares on Havelock, it seems like a simple matter to sell your shares and bid on Seb's auction. Your alternative is holding those shares as the Havelock price drops.

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.

It's funny seeing you counting the wrong numbers to the right result, Vycid.

[Vycid]

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

Really? I don't see how. The auction price is below the exchange price (0.29 v 0.37) but there's no telling where it will end up in a week.

When Seb lowered his starting bid to 0.29 it sucked the market down from ~0.45 to ~0.37. Holding shares at the moment seems like a bad situation. You've got little prospect of any price jump while the auction is running, unless bidders are interested in paying more than where the exchange price was at the start of the auction.

But you are as bright as a button so tell me where I've gone wrong.

Seb is selling 1240 shares at an auction start price of .29 each. I think that's something like 0.75% of publicly traded shares? There are only 13381 AM1 shares on Havelock, for comparison.

The Havelock volume in the last month was 6970 shares. If total monthly volume is 6970 and 1240 shares are suddenly offered at 25% below market, the price is going to go down globally - possibly even more than 25%. We'll see how much demand there is.

So if you're holding shares on Havelock, it seems like a simple matter to sell your shares and bid on Seb's auction. Your alternative is holding those shares as the Havelock price drops.

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.

It's funny seeing you counting the wrong numbers to the right result, Vycid.

I'd appreciate it if you'd correct any incorrect numbers or assumptions.

[KarmaShark]

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

Really? I don't see how. The auction price is below the exchange price (0.29 v 0.37) but there's no telling where it will end up in a week.

When Seb lowered his starting bid to 0.29 it sucked the market down from ~0.45 to ~0.37. Holding shares at the moment seems like a bad situation. You've got little prospect of any price jump while the auction is running, unless bidders are interested in paying more than where the exchange price was at the start of the auction.

But you are as bright as a button so tell me where I've gone wrong.

Seb is selling 1240 shares at an auction start price of .29 each. I think that's something like 0.75% of publicly traded shares? There are only 13381 AM1 shares on Havelock, for comparison.

The Havelock volume in the last month was 6970 shares. If total monthly volume is 6970 and 1240 shares are suddenly offered at 25% below market, the price is going to go down globally - possibly even more than 25%. We'll see how much demand there is.

So if you're holding shares on Havelock, it seems like a simple matter to sell your shares and bid on Seb's auction. Your alternative is holding those shares as the Havelock price drops.

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.

It's funny seeing you counting the wrong numbers to the right result, Vycid.

I'd appreciate it if you'd correct any incorrect numbers or assumptions.

At a glance I believe Seb has 1320 in total (opposed to 1340).

[twbt]

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

Really? I don't see how. The auction price is below the exchange price (0.29 v 0.37) but there's no telling where it will end up in a week.

When Seb lowered his starting bid to 0.29 it sucked the market down from ~0.45 to ~0.37. Holding shares at the moment seems like a bad situation. You've got little prospect of any price jump while the auction is running, unless bidders are interested in paying more than where the exchange price was at the start of the auction.

But you are as bright as a button so tell me where I've gone wrong.

Seb is selling 1240 1320 shares at an auction start price of .29 .4 each (as of the first auction, now it's .29). I think that's something like 0.75% of publicly traded shares 10% of Havelock? There are only 13381 AM1 shares on Havelock, for comparison.

The Havelock volume in the last month was 6970 shares. If total monthly volume is 6970 and 1240 1320 shares are suddenly offered at 25% below market, the price is going to go down globally - possibly even more than 25%. We'll see how much demand there is.

So if you're holding shares on Havelock, it seems like a simple matter to sell your shares and bid on Seb's auction. Your alternative is holding those shares as the Havelock price drops.

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.

It's funny seeing you counting the wrong numbers to the right result, Vycid.

I'd appreciate it if you'd correct any incorrect numbers or assumptions.

Tried to.

[User705]

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

Really? I don't see how. The auction price is below the exchange price (0.29 v 0.37) but there's no telling where it will end up in a week.

When Seb lowered his starting bid to 0.29 it sucked the market down from ~0.45 to ~0.37. Holding shares at the moment seems like a bad situation. You've got little prospect of any price jump while the auction is running, unless bidders are interested in paying more than where the exchange price was at the start of the auction.

But you are as bright as a button so tell me where I've gone wrong.

Seb is selling 1240 shares at an auction start price of .29 each. I think that's something like 0.75% of publicly traded shares? There are only 13381 AM1 shares on Havelock, for comparison.

The Havelock volume in the last month was 6970 shares. If total monthly volume is 6970 and 1240 shares are suddenly offered at 25% below market, the price is going to go down globally - possibly even more than 25%. We'll see how much demand there is.

So if you're holding shares on Havelock, it seems like a simple matter to sell your shares and bid on Seb's auction. Your alternative is holding those shares as the Havelock price drops.

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.

Lots of assumptions there.  You assume you can win the auction at a lower price than you sell on havelock and then assume the deal closes even if you do win.  

[Vycid]

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

Really? I don't see how. The auction price is below the exchange price (0.29 v 0.37) but there's no telling where it will end up in a week.

When Seb lowered his starting bid to 0.29 it sucked the market down from ~0.45 to ~0.37. Holding shares at the moment seems like a bad situation. You've got little prospect of any price jump while the auction is running, unless bidders are interested in paying more than where the exchange price was at the start of the auction.

But you are as bright as a button so tell me where I've gone wrong.

Seb is selling 1240 1320 shares at an auction start price of .29 .4 each (as of the first auction, now it's .29). I think that's something like 0.75% of publicly traded shares 10% of Havelock? There are only 13381 AM1 shares on Havelock, for comparison.

The Havelock volume in the last month was 6970 shares. If total monthly volume is 6970 and 1240 1320 shares are suddenly offered at 25% below market, the price is going to go down globally - possibly even more than 25%. We'll see how much demand there is.

So if you're holding shares on Havelock, it seems like a simple matter to sell your shares and bid on Seb's auction. Your alternative is holding those shares as the Havelock price drops.

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.

It's funny seeing you counting the wrong numbers to the right result, Vycid.

I'd appreciate it if you'd correct any incorrect numbers or assumptions.

Tried to.

  the auction is indeed for 1320, oops.

Net public shares are in the neighborhood of 164,000, with a total of 400,000 including those held by BitFountain, so 0.75% was correct.

Lots of assumptions there.  You assume you can win the auction at a lower price then you sell on havelock and then assume the deal closes even if you do win.  

Slippage is not really an assumption, and I think Seb is considered trustworthy. It seems to me like the clear best course of action, maybe it's not that clear to others.

[BitThink]

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

Really? I don't see how. The auction price is below the exchange price (0.29 v 0.37) but there's no telling where it will end up in a week.

When Seb lowered his starting bid to 0.29 it sucked the market down from ~0.45 to ~0.37. Holding shares at the moment seems like a bad situation. You've got little prospect of any price jump while the auction is running, unless bidders are interested in paying more than where the exchange price was at the start of the auction.

But you are as bright as a button so tell me where I've gone wrong.

Seb is selling 1240 shares at an auction start price of .29 each. I think that's something like 0.75% of publicly traded shares? There are only 13381 AM1 shares on Havelock, for comparison.

The Havelock volume in the last month was 6970 shares. If total monthly volume is 6970 and 1240 shares are suddenly offered at 25% below market, the price is going to go down globally - possibly even more than 25%. We'll see how much demand there is.

So if you're holding shares on Havelock, it seems like a simple matter to sell your shares and bid on Seb's auction. Your alternative is holding those shares as the Havelock price drops.

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.

Lots of assumptions there.  You assume you can win the auction at a lower price then you sell on havelock and then assume the deal closes even if you do win. 

How about think in this way: what will happen in a very small market when the supply suddenly increases by 1320 shares? Do you think the demand will increase as much in just a week? I think there's a very obvious answer. In my opinion, those who haven't withdrawn their bids definitely haven't seen that auction yet.

[twbt]

Net public shares are actually something like 164,000, with a total of 400,000 including those held by BitFountain, so that was correct.

1320 is about 10% of the 13381 shares currently traded at Havelock. So I would agree: Seb's auction will have a significant impact on the share prise there. Maybe it will drop > 25%.

How about think in this way: what will happen in a very small market when the supply suddenly increases by 1320 shares? Do you think the demand will increase as much in just a week? I think there's a very obvious answer. In my opinion, those who haven't withdrawn their bids definitely haven't seen that auction yet.

+1.