ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[KeyserSozeMC]

Price of each share?

[empoweoqwj]

So, after giving it a lot of thought, I've realized that if there was ONE question I would want to ask friedcat... it would be: what is 5 year vision for ASICMINER?
(if thinking 5 years out in the Bitcoin world is too crazy, then maybe just 2 years)

What do other people think about this question?

Vision is sometimes very far away from reality you know ... Friedcat also had "vision" about :

How are things going regarding your business plan? Did you account for the sudden network hashrate increase? How is the international expansion of ASICminer coming along?
The business plan is unchanged. The network hashrate increase was still under our projection. The total hash target originally set for the end of this year would probably achieved earlier.

and look where are we ...

Well he'd have to be about one step up from God to know what was going to happen to bitcoin in 12 months time. You still need to have a vision though, just constantly adjust your plans as you go along. He's only human you know.

[explorer]

Price of each share?

last 0.26667

[empoweoqwj]

Price of each share?

last 0.26667

and going down daily .............

[KeyserSozeMC]

Price of each share?

last 0.26667

and going down daily .............

Why is that, empoweoqwj?

[empoweoqwj]

Price of each share?

last 0.26667

and going down daily .............

Why is that, empoweoqwj?

because FC has announced Gen3 won't be out until (approximately) springtime, and there is nothing to prop up dividends until then. Since the AM share price is largely a function of last week's dividends, it makes sense that the share price will drop continually. Its actually dropped for 26 weeks now, in line with dividend reductions.

[chriswilmer]

Price of each share?

last 0.26667

and going down daily .............

Why is that, empoweoqwj?

because FC has announced Gen3 won't be out until (approximately) springtime, and there is nothing to prop up dividends until then. Since the AM share price is largely a function of last week's dividends, it makes sense that the share price will drop continually. Its actually dropped for 26 weeks now, in line with dividend reductions.

Isn't that irrational market behavior? You would think the share price reflects investors feelings about future dividends. The fact that the share price is so highly correlated to the week-to-week dividends is very puzzling to me.

[Rival]

Currently BTC is a risky investment by any standard. To invest in a company whose whole business model is based upon that risk carries even more risk. And then once you dump all of that into a blender and mix it up, you get to pour it out amidst the backdrop of hundreds of other BTC companies going bust over the last year and every investor losing everything. The level of risk starts to approach ludicrous speed.

At this point in the history of BTC and AM, the risk is so large that there is no real model that can realistically balance out the enormous risk. And make no mistake, it is enormous. Therefore, the rational investor will see weekly dividends as a way to try and shave off a little of that mountain of risk. Each time the div goes into the wallet, a small portion of risk has been mitigated. The share price is adjusted accordingly to reflect this.

[arousedrhino]

Price of each share?

last 0.26667

and going down daily .............

Why is that, empoweoqwj?

because FC has announced Gen3 won't be out until (approximately) springtime, and there is nothing to prop up dividends until then. Since the AM share price is largely a function of last week's dividends, it makes sense that the share price will drop continually. Its actually dropped for 26 weeks now, in line with dividend reductions.

Isn't that irrational market behavior? You would think the share price reflects investors feelings about future dividends. The fact that the share price is so highly correlated to the week-to-week dividends is very puzzling to me.

Bitcoin securities markets are irrational, people want quick week on week gains so 2 months of no divs means 2 months their money is doing nothing so they take it out of the stock. I agree with you and go long term but to each his own.

[Ditto]

It will only go to 0.5+ when Gen3 is about to happen, when the chips are being poured into that lovely hot liquid

Not too hot, hopefully.

[damiano]

Who wants to bet we will be below IPO by mid January ?

[minerpumpkin]

Who wants to bet we will be below IPO by mid January ?

I don't know... below IPO will be really cheap, I bet there are a lot of people who are more than willing to buy at such low prices. Those who believe in AM's performance next spring.

[MilkyLep]

For people looking to jump onto a larger stockpile of AM shares, 0.1BTC (+/-.01) will be hard to resist.

[muyuu]

Price of each share?

last 0.26667

and going down daily .............

Why is that, empoweoqwj?

because FC has announced Gen3 won't be out until (approximately) springtime, and there is nothing to prop up dividends until then. Since the AM share price is largely a function of last week's dividends, it makes sense that the share price will drop continually. Its actually dropped for 26 weeks now, in line with dividend reductions.

Isn't that irrational market behavior? You would think the share price reflects investors feelings about future dividends. The fact that the share price is so highly correlated to the week-to-week dividends is very puzzling to me.

Bitcoin securities markets are irrational, people want quick week on week gains so 2 months of no divs means 2 months their money is doing nothing so they take it out of the stock. I agree with you and go long term but to each his own.

They are not THAT irrational.

Dividend payments and verifiable hash rates speak louder than promises, esp. when the company has failed to deliver for a number of months and the competition has stepped up meanwhile.

[empoweoqwj]

Price of each share?

last 0.26667

and going down daily .............

Why is that, empoweoqwj?

because FC has announced Gen3 won't be out until (approximately) springtime, and there is nothing to prop up dividends until then. Since the AM share price is largely a function of last week's dividends, it makes sense that the share price will drop continually. Its actually dropped for 26 weeks now, in line with dividend reductions.

Isn't that irrational market behavior? You would think the share price reflects investors feelings about future dividends. The fact that the share price is so highly correlated to the week-to-week dividends is very puzzling to me.

I would describe it as "partly irrational but highly understandable".

All AM shareholders would love to believe Gen3 will be amazing, regain 10% of the network, AM won't be sabotaged or fall foul of some "regulations" in China, bitcoin won't collapse, FC won't run off with our money etc etc.

So there are lots of risk factors out there. That is why people don't look further than this week.

Just depends on your risk profile. If you love risky stuff, buy some AM shares in the next month when they dip under 0.20. You could well make an amazing profit. But it could equally well blow up in your face. Nobody knows.

[Endlessa]

Price of each share?

last 0.26667

and going down daily .............

Why is that, empoweoqwj?

because FC has announced Gen3 won't be out until (approximately) springtime, and there is nothing to prop up dividends until then. Since the AM share price is largely a function of last week's dividends, it makes sense that the share price will drop continually. Its actually dropped for 26 weeks now, in line with dividend reductions.

Isn't that irrational market behavior? You would think the share price reflects investors feelings about future dividends. The fact that the share price is so highly correlated to the week-to-week dividends is very puzzling to me.

I would describe it as "partly irrational but highly understandable".

All AM shareholders would love to believe Gen3 will be amazing, regain 10% of the network, AM won't be sabotaged or fall foul of some "regulations" in China, bitcoin won't collapse, FC won't run off with our money etc etc.

So there are lots of risk factors out there. That is why people don't look further than this week.

Just depends on your risk profile. If you love risky stuff, buy some AM shares in the next month when they dip under 0.20. You could well make an amazing profit. But it could equally well blow up in your face. Nobody knows.

IMO it also has to do with network share and the future (next February?) easily hitting 15 peta hash.  With the currently targeted future AM chips being a generation  behind what's hitting the market now, there are so many risk factors outside of dividends that it's a hard sell, again imo, that AM has a truly reasonable chance of recovery.  The currently 30 gh/s product line finds itself barely palatable to any serious miner.  When AM was showing on the hash chart a huge portion of pie, it was a name that was unavoidable and on the tongues of anybody talking about mining.  Now, truly unfortunately, it has fallen subservient to the likes of P2Pool, Deepbit, and Bitlc.net (?!?!?).  I know the coin grab from miner sells was very enticing, but I feel the raw hash power and publicity of topping the hashing chart was extremely undervalued.  There are individuals on some of these pools sporting more power than AM currently possesses.  Can this one company really compete with the 100s, perhaps 1000s, of individuals already pushing past the peak hash AM has shown.  Don't get me wrong, I have really enjoyed this company and this thread, but I don't have a lot of hope for it.  I just hope that FC & AM didn't spend too much of the piggie bank on all that copper tubing and cooling.  There is a huge mountain in front of AM and I hope they are up to climbing it.

[fuji]

Simply I just quit playing for now, lost 82% of my BTC asset. I don't blame anyone but my own poor judgement of investment. Without proper regulation and stable exchange, BTC securities investment is just a kid's play, of course, a dangerous one.

[VeeMiner]

Simply I just quit playing for now, lost 82% of my BTC asset. I don't blame anyone but my own poor judgement of investment. Without proper regulation and stable exchange, BTC securities investment is just a kid's play, of course, a dangerous one.

it's a kids play if you don't know how to play. Of course crappy exchanges are a big problem, I just hope the free market will take care of it in near future (meaning that there will be at least a few stable and reliant exchanges). I'm holding direct shares which is obviously the safest option right now but if I wanted to trade with them it's pretty hard.

[Voodah]

Simply I just quit playing for now, lost 82% of my BTC asset. I don't blame anyone but my own poor judgement of investment. Without proper regulation and stable exchange, BTC securities investment is just a kid's play, of course, a dangerous one.

it's a kids play if you don't know how to play. Of course crappy exchanges are a big problem, I just hope the free market will take care of it in near future (meaning that there will be at least a few stable and reliant exchanges). I'm holding direct shares which is obviously the safest option right now but if I wanted to trade with them it's pretty hard.

Is there a way to play the game right now??

I have invested in both AM and KNC (2nd day order !) at different times, and both have seriously let me down.

I'm really worried about the mining ecosystem...

1. GHash.io is the largest pool. They have proven to be dishonest.
2. ASICMiner tanked and its health depends entirely on the promise of Gen3 for Q1.
3. I can't find an actual number..  but it seems to me like the vast majority of people who invested on (any) Gen1 ASIC lost money in terms of BTC. Let's not even mention the guys who pre-ordered BFL, they should've known.
4. All ASIC companies have pre-mined with the for-sale equipment (correct me if I'm wrong here, but that is my understanding).

For me it boils down to a dilemma I cannot wrap my head around:

If I make a money printing machine, why would I sell it for less than the money it can print?
If I sell it for less, who would wanna buy it?

It seems like all ASIC companies have chosen to sell for more than the machines can produce, and from their point of view, it was the correct decision.

They knew the answer to the second question: the inexperienced, the misinformed, the lazy and the gullible.

So what I want to know actually, is who profited the most out of Gen1 ?

Clearly it was not the customers.

All clues lead to the ASIC companies.

Why is it not reflected on div or cheaper costs for the next gen ??
How long can this strategy work, where all losses go to the customers and all profits to ASIC makers?

I'm not investing in mining again any time soon, but I see there are lots of people who think it's still a great idea to get on that 1st day pre-order..

I know there's a lot of experienced and heavily invested miners here. Maybe I'm missing something here? Can someone please enlighten me??

[jimmothy]

Simply I just quit playing for now, lost 82% of my BTC asset. I don't blame anyone but my own poor judgement of investment. Without proper regulation and stable exchange, BTC securities investment is just a kid's play, of course, a dangerous one.

it's a kids play if you don't know how to play. Of course crappy exchanges are a big problem, I just hope the free market will take care of it in near future (meaning that there will be at least a few stable and reliant exchanges). I'm holding direct shares which is obviously the safest option right now but if I wanted to trade with them it's pretty hard.

Is there a way to play the game right now??

I have invested in both AM and KNC (2nd day order !) at different times, and both have seriously let me down.

I'm really worried about the mining ecosystem...

1. GHash.io is the largest pool. They have proven to be dishonest.
2. ASICMiner tanked and its health depends entirely on the promise of Gen3 for Q1.
3. I can't find an actual number..  but it seems to me like the vast majority of people who invested on (any) Gen1 ASIC lost money in terms of BTC. Let's not even mention the guys who pre-ordered BFL, they should've known.
4. All ASIC companies have pre-mined with the for-sale equipment (correct me if I'm wrong here, but that is my understanding).

For me it boils down to a dilemma I cannot wrap my head around:

If I make a money printing machine, why would I sell it for less than the money it can print?
If I sell it for less, who would wanna buy it?

It seems like all ASIC companies have chosen to sell for more than the machines can produce, and from their point of view, it was the correct decision.

They knew the answer to the second question: the inexperienced, the misinformed, the lazy and the gullible.

So what I want to know actually, is who profited the most out of Gen1 ?

Clearly it was not the customers.

All clues lead to the ASIC companies.

Why is it not reflected on div or cheaper costs for the next gen ??
How long can this strategy work, where all losses go to the customers and all profits to ASIC makers?

I'm not investing in mining again any time soon, but I see there are lots of people who think it's still a great idea to get on that 1st day pre-order..

I know there's a lot of experienced and heavily invested miners here. Maybe I'm missing something here?

Can someone please enlighten me??

Literally anything you do with btc will not yeild as much return as just holding btc due to the rapid increase in price. In terms of USD almost everyone who bought an asic or invested in asicminer came out ahead.

The reason we are seeing such a price dip is because gen2 chips from AM were skipped which lead to a long gap between new hardware. The reason it was skipped was due to unsatisfactory performance and FC believes gen3 is more promising. Also by skipping gen2, gen3 will arrive sooner.