ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[minerpumpkin]

Who wants to bet we will be below IPO by mid January ?

I don't know... below IPO will be really cheap, I bet there are a lot of people who are more than willing to buy at such low prices. Those who believe in AM's performance next spring.

[MilkyLep]

For people looking to jump onto a larger stockpile of AM shares, 0.1BTC (+/-.01) will be hard to resist.

[muyuu]

Price of each share?

last 0.26667

and going down daily .............

Why is that, empoweoqwj?

because FC has announced Gen3 won't be out until (approximately) springtime, and there is nothing to prop up dividends until then. Since the AM share price is largely a function of last week's dividends, it makes sense that the share price will drop continually. Its actually dropped for 26 weeks now, in line with dividend reductions.

Isn't that irrational market behavior? You would think the share price reflects investors feelings about future dividends. The fact that the share price is so highly correlated to the week-to-week dividends is very puzzling to me.

Bitcoin securities markets are irrational, people want quick week on week gains so 2 months of no divs means 2 months their money is doing nothing so they take it out of the stock. I agree with you and go long term but to each his own.

They are not THAT irrational.

Dividend payments and verifiable hash rates speak louder than promises, esp. when the company has failed to deliver for a number of months and the competition has stepped up meanwhile.

[empoweoqwj]

Price of each share?

last 0.26667

and going down daily .............

Why is that, empoweoqwj?

because FC has announced Gen3 won't be out until (approximately) springtime, and there is nothing to prop up dividends until then. Since the AM share price is largely a function of last week's dividends, it makes sense that the share price will drop continually. Its actually dropped for 26 weeks now, in line with dividend reductions.

Isn't that irrational market behavior? You would think the share price reflects investors feelings about future dividends. The fact that the share price is so highly correlated to the week-to-week dividends is very puzzling to me.

I would describe it as "partly irrational but highly understandable".

All AM shareholders would love to believe Gen3 will be amazing, regain 10% of the network, AM won't be sabotaged or fall foul of some "regulations" in China, bitcoin won't collapse, FC won't run off with our money etc etc.

So there are lots of risk factors out there. That is why people don't look further than this week.

Just depends on your risk profile. If you love risky stuff, buy some AM shares in the next month when they dip under 0.20. You could well make an amazing profit. But it could equally well blow up in your face. Nobody knows.

[Endlessa]

Price of each share?

last 0.26667

and going down daily .............

Why is that, empoweoqwj?

because FC has announced Gen3 won't be out until (approximately) springtime, and there is nothing to prop up dividends until then. Since the AM share price is largely a function of last week's dividends, it makes sense that the share price will drop continually. Its actually dropped for 26 weeks now, in line with dividend reductions.

Isn't that irrational market behavior? You would think the share price reflects investors feelings about future dividends. The fact that the share price is so highly correlated to the week-to-week dividends is very puzzling to me.

I would describe it as "partly irrational but highly understandable".

All AM shareholders would love to believe Gen3 will be amazing, regain 10% of the network, AM won't be sabotaged or fall foul of some "regulations" in China, bitcoin won't collapse, FC won't run off with our money etc etc.

So there are lots of risk factors out there. That is why people don't look further than this week.

Just depends on your risk profile. If you love risky stuff, buy some AM shares in the next month when they dip under 0.20. You could well make an amazing profit. But it could equally well blow up in your face. Nobody knows.

IMO it also has to do with network share and the future (next February?) easily hitting 15 peta hash.  With the currently targeted future AM chips being a generation  behind what's hitting the market now, there are so many risk factors outside of dividends that it's a hard sell, again imo, that AM has a truly reasonable chance of recovery.  The currently 30 gh/s product line finds itself barely palatable to any serious miner.  When AM was showing on the hash chart a huge portion of pie, it was a name that was unavoidable and on the tongues of anybody talking about mining.  Now, truly unfortunately, it has fallen subservient to the likes of P2Pool, Deepbit, and Bitlc.net (?!?!?).  I know the coin grab from miner sells was very enticing, but I feel the raw hash power and publicity of topping the hashing chart was extremely undervalued.  There are individuals on some of these pools sporting more power than AM currently possesses.  Can this one company really compete with the 100s, perhaps 1000s, of individuals already pushing past the peak hash AM has shown.  Don't get me wrong, I have really enjoyed this company and this thread, but I don't have a lot of hope for it.  I just hope that FC & AM didn't spend too much of the piggie bank on all that copper tubing and cooling.  There is a huge mountain in front of AM and I hope they are up to climbing it.

[fuji]

Simply I just quit playing for now, lost 82% of my BTC asset. I don't blame anyone but my own poor judgement of investment. Without proper regulation and stable exchange, BTC securities investment is just a kid's play, of course, a dangerous one.

[VeeMiner]

Simply I just quit playing for now, lost 82% of my BTC asset. I don't blame anyone but my own poor judgement of investment. Without proper regulation and stable exchange, BTC securities investment is just a kid's play, of course, a dangerous one.

it's a kids play if you don't know how to play. Of course crappy exchanges are a big problem, I just hope the free market will take care of it in near future (meaning that there will be at least a few stable and reliant exchanges). I'm holding direct shares which is obviously the safest option right now but if I wanted to trade with them it's pretty hard.

[Voodah]

Simply I just quit playing for now, lost 82% of my BTC asset. I don't blame anyone but my own poor judgement of investment. Without proper regulation and stable exchange, BTC securities investment is just a kid's play, of course, a dangerous one.

it's a kids play if you don't know how to play. Of course crappy exchanges are a big problem, I just hope the free market will take care of it in near future (meaning that there will be at least a few stable and reliant exchanges). I'm holding direct shares which is obviously the safest option right now but if I wanted to trade with them it's pretty hard.

Is there a way to play the game right now??

I have invested in both AM and KNC (2nd day order !) at different times, and both have seriously let me down.

I'm really worried about the mining ecosystem...

1. GHash.io is the largest pool. They have proven to be dishonest.
2. ASICMiner tanked and its health depends entirely on the promise of Gen3 for Q1.
3. I can't find an actual number..  but it seems to me like the vast majority of people who invested on (any) Gen1 ASIC lost money in terms of BTC. Let's not even mention the guys who pre-ordered BFL, they should've known.
4. All ASIC companies have pre-mined with the for-sale equipment (correct me if I'm wrong here, but that is my understanding).

For me it boils down to a dilemma I cannot wrap my head around:

If I make a money printing machine, why would I sell it for less than the money it can print?
If I sell it for less, who would wanna buy it?

It seems like all ASIC companies have chosen to sell for more than the machines can produce, and from their point of view, it was the correct decision.

They knew the answer to the second question: the inexperienced, the misinformed, the lazy and the gullible.

So what I want to know actually, is who profited the most out of Gen1 ?

Clearly it was not the customers.

All clues lead to the ASIC companies.

Why is it not reflected on div or cheaper costs for the next gen ??
How long can this strategy work, where all losses go to the customers and all profits to ASIC makers?

I'm not investing in mining again any time soon, but I see there are lots of people who think it's still a great idea to get on that 1st day pre-order..

I know there's a lot of experienced and heavily invested miners here. Maybe I'm missing something here? Can someone please enlighten me??

[jimmothy]

Simply I just quit playing for now, lost 82% of my BTC asset. I don't blame anyone but my own poor judgement of investment. Without proper regulation and stable exchange, BTC securities investment is just a kid's play, of course, a dangerous one.

it's a kids play if you don't know how to play. Of course crappy exchanges are a big problem, I just hope the free market will take care of it in near future (meaning that there will be at least a few stable and reliant exchanges). I'm holding direct shares which is obviously the safest option right now but if I wanted to trade with them it's pretty hard.

Is there a way to play the game right now??

I have invested in both AM and KNC (2nd day order !) at different times, and both have seriously let me down.

I'm really worried about the mining ecosystem...

1. GHash.io is the largest pool. They have proven to be dishonest.
2. ASICMiner tanked and its health depends entirely on the promise of Gen3 for Q1.
3. I can't find an actual number..  but it seems to me like the vast majority of people who invested on (any) Gen1 ASIC lost money in terms of BTC. Let's not even mention the guys who pre-ordered BFL, they should've known.
4. All ASIC companies have pre-mined with the for-sale equipment (correct me if I'm wrong here, but that is my understanding).

For me it boils down to a dilemma I cannot wrap my head around:

If I make a money printing machine, why would I sell it for less than the money it can print?
If I sell it for less, who would wanna buy it?

It seems like all ASIC companies have chosen to sell for more than the machines can produce, and from their point of view, it was the correct decision.

They knew the answer to the second question: the inexperienced, the misinformed, the lazy and the gullible.

So what I want to know actually, is who profited the most out of Gen1 ?

Clearly it was not the customers.

All clues lead to the ASIC companies.

Why is it not reflected on div or cheaper costs for the next gen ??
How long can this strategy work, where all losses go to the customers and all profits to ASIC makers?

I'm not investing in mining again any time soon, but I see there are lots of people who think it's still a great idea to get on that 1st day pre-order..

I know there's a lot of experienced and heavily invested miners here. Maybe I'm missing something here?

Can someone please enlighten me??

Literally anything you do with btc will not yeild as much return as just holding btc due to the rapid increase in price. In terms of USD almost everyone who bought an asic or invested in asicminer came out ahead.

The reason we are seeing such a price dip is because gen2 chips from AM were skipped which lead to a long gap between new hardware. The reason it was skipped was due to unsatisfactory performance and FC believes gen3 is more promising. Also by skipping gen2, gen3 will arrive sooner.

[Voodah]

Literally anything you do with btc will not yeild as much return as just holding btc. In terms of USD almost everyone who bought an asic machine or invested in asicminer came out ahead.

Thinking in terms of USD makes no sense when you paid in BTC. It is just a way of justifying a bad investment.

Most people paid in BTC. Even in the case of KNC, who only sold in USD. Groupbuys were in BTC.

And still, you said it, buying BTC with those USD would've netted a whole lot more.

So...  what's the point?

I love paying for a more secure network, but not even that is happening. Quite the opposite.

Seems like we are just paying for greater ASIC maker profits, that never get reinvested in the customers making them rich.

What is the future of mining? Will it play out this same way for the next couple years?

Is this sustainable?

This is not an AM flame.. I've just been thinking about this a lot lately and I'd love some opinions from the experienced people that are actually in the business of mining.

[jimmothy]

Literally anything you do with btc will not yeild as much return as just holding btc. In terms of USD almost everyone who bought an asic machine or invested in asicminer came out ahead.

Thinking in terms of USD makes no sense when you paid in BTC. It is just a way of justifying a bad investment.

Most people paid in BTC. Even in the case of KNC, who only sold in USD. Groupbuys were in BTC.

And still, you said it, buying BTC with those USD would've netted a whole lot more.

So...  what's the point?

I love paying for a more secure network, but not even that is happening. Quite the opposite.

Seems like we are just paying for greater ASIC maker profits, that never get reinvested in the customers making them rich.

What is the future of mining? Will it play out this same way for the next couple years?

Is this sustainable?

This is not an AM flame.. I've just been thinking about this a lot lately and I'd love some opinions from the experienced people that are actually in the business of mining.

I don't understand what you mean by we are paying for asic maker profits. AM sold as much gen1 as they could and are preparing for much more efficient gen3.

I assume the plan is to replace all the solomining chips with gen3 bringing AM back to 10% network hashrate and add hardware sales on top of that. Could very well be sustainable if AM is able to provide competitive hardware.

And when you invest in AM you are investing in bitcoin mining as a whole. We know that literally every single ASIC yielded less than if you were to just buy btc at the time and hold.

[Voodah]

The reason we are seeing such a price dip is because gen2 chips from AM were skipped which lead to a long gap between new hardware. The reason it was skipped was due to unsatisfactory performance and FC believes gen3 is more promising. Also by skipping gen2, gen3 will arrive sooner.

Yeah, I know that, I follow the thread. But where's all the money from Gen1 ?

Traditionally in the stock market, divs are a function of books and profits.

Here, we cannot see the books and divs ran to the promise of 10% network share, that was silently dropped.

I'm sure as hell there has been a lot of profits.

Why aren't they used to sustain the stock div if it is known that the 10% promise is unattainable and will be dropped?

We're talking about the customers who are funding your own growth.. why wouldn't you take care of them?

Soon competition will flow like crazy. It'd be good to give something back and gain some very valuable loyalty.

[jimmothy]

The reason we are seeing such a price dip is because gen2 chips from AM were skipped which lead to a long gap between new hardware. The reason it was skipped was due to unsatisfactory performance and FC believes gen3 is more promising. Also by skipping gen2, gen3 will arrive sooner.

Yeah, I know that, I follow the thread. But where's all the money from Gen1 ?

Traditionally in the stock market, divs are a function of books and profits.

Here, we cannot see the books and divs ran to the promise of 10% network share, that was silently dropped.

I'm sure as hell there has been a lot of profits.

Why aren't they used to sustain the stock div if it is known that the 10% promise is unattainable and will be dropped?

We're talking about the customers who are funding your own growth.. why wouldn't you take care of them?

Soon competition will flow like crazy. It'd be good to give something back and gain some very valuable loyalty.

The financial info is public and you can find it under FC's posts.

The money from Gen1 was distributed to shareholders as dividends.

Around half of the btc from dividends was from mining and half from hardware sales iirc.

The divs are not retained to constantly pay out 10% this was just the goal for AM solomine (which could not be kept due to gen2 being skipped).

Some divs were retained to pay for gen3 as FC announced.

AM has given back to its investors more than any other btc investment.

Dividends alone equal to 500% initial investment of 0.1 btc/share.

[Voodah]

I don't understand what you mean by we are paying for asic maker profits. AM sold as much gen1 as they could and are preparing for much more efficient gen3.

I assume the plan is to replace all the solomining chips with gen3 bringing AM back to 10% network hashrate and add hardware sales on top of that. Could very well be sustainable if AM is able to provide competitive hardware.

And when you invest in AM you are investing in bitcoin mining as a whole. We know that literally every single ASIC yielded less than if you were to just buy btc at the time and hold.

I'm sorry if you don't understand.

You sound like a broken cassette player looping the latest announcement.

I'm interested in a honest discussion and learning about the mining ecosystem, and how it works from the inside.

[jimmothy]

I don't understand what you mean by we are paying for asic maker profits. AM sold as much gen1 as they could and are preparing for much more efficient gen3.

I assume the plan is to replace all the solomining chips with gen3 bringing AM back to 10% network hashrate and add hardware sales on top of that. Could very well be sustainable if AM is able to provide competitive hardware.

And when you invest in AM you are investing in bitcoin mining as a whole. We know that literally every single ASIC yielded less than if you were to just buy btc at the time and hold.

I'm sorry if you don't understand.

You sound like a broken cassette player looping the latest announcement.

I'm interested in a honest discussion and learning about the mining ecosystem, and how it works from the inside.

You clearly know nothing about BTC mining and don't want to learn anything.

As you said you are here to flame AM. Go read FC's post history and learn something new.

[bitmoon]

Literally anything you do with btc will not yeild as much return as just holding btc due to the rapid increase in price. In terms of USD almost everyone who bought an asic or invested in asicminer came out ahead.

The reason we are seeing such a price dip is because gen2 chips from AM were skipped which lead to a long gap between new hardware. The reason it was skipped was due to unsatisfactory performance and FC believes gen3 is more promising. Also by skipping gen2, gen3 will arrive sooner.

i checked friedcats posts, and i don't see any statement where he says gen2 is skipped, etc

any link to source where it says gen 2 is stopped/skipped?

[jimmothy]

Literally anything you do with btc will not yeild as much return as just holding btc due to the rapid increase in price. In terms of USD almost everyone who bought an asic or invested in asicminer came out ahead.

The reason we are seeing such a price dip is because gen2 chips from AM were skipped which lead to a long gap between new hardware. The reason it was skipped was due to unsatisfactory performance and FC believes gen3 is more promising. Also by skipping gen2, gen3 will arrive sooner.

i checked friedcats posts, and i don't see any statement where he says gen2 is skipped, etc

any link to source where it says gen 2 is stopped/skipped?

I believe it was mentioned in the interview and was confirmed by board member jutarul.

[Jutarul]

Is this sustainable?

This is not an AM flame.. I've just been thinking about this a lot lately and I'd love some opinions from the experienced people that are actually in the business of mining.

The current situation is more or less a mess, because either companies are actively involved in fraud or have not developed the necessary pricing schemes to protect customers enough from the market volatility and network growth. AM is currently pioneering a business model which should insulate customers from network growth projection errors, but it will likely be reserved for larger businesses and collaborations (franchise).

The only way to make profit right now in terms of btc is to take advantage of the tech arbitrage between the cost of building your miner and the yield. That's why AM (dependent on valuation) is principally a better choice than just outright buying a miner at market value. That narrative will change to power cost arbitrage, but not before the operating profit margins from mining are down to less than 2-5 fold.

[Voodah]

I don't understand what you mean by we are paying for asic maker profits. AM sold as much gen1 as they could and are preparing for much more efficient gen3.

I assume the plan is to replace all the solomining chips with gen3 bringing AM back to 10% network hashrate and add hardware sales on top of that. Could very well be sustainable if AM is able to provide competitive hardware.

And when you invest in AM you are investing in bitcoin mining as a whole. We know that literally every single ASIC yielded less than if you were to just buy btc at the time and hold.

I'm sorry if you don't understand.

You sound like a broken cassette player looping the latest announcement.

I'm interested in a honest discussion and learning about the mining ecosystem, and how it works from the inside.

You clearly know nothing about BTC mining and don't want to learn anything.

As you said you are here to flame AM. Go read FC's post history and learn something new.

Wow. Why do people get so fanatical?

Just ignore my posts and keep on doing your thing.

[Voodah]

Is this sustainable?

This is not an AM flame.. I've just been thinking about this a lot lately and I'd love some opinions from the experienced people that are actually in the business of mining.

The current situation is more or less a mess, because either companies are actively involved in fraud or have not developed the necessary pricing schemes to protect customers enough from the market volatility and network growth. AM is currently pioneering a business model which should insulate customers from network growth projection errors, but it will likely be reserved for larger businesses and collaborations (franchise).

The only way to make profit right now in terms of btc is to take advantage of the tech arbitrage between the cost of building your miner and the yield. That's why AM (dependent on valuation) is principally a better choice than just outright buying a miner at market value. That narrative will change to power cost arbitrage, but not before the operating profit margins from mining are down to less than 2-5 fold.

That's more like it. Thanks for the honest intelligent answer.

Could you expand on this:

That narrative will change to power cost arbitrage, but not before the operating profit margins from mining are down to less than 2-5 fold.