ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[chriswilmer]

Some of you may remember a while back I used to write up weekly reports on AM news... I did this for several weeks in a row when there was a torrent of information coming out and it took several hours of reading a day just to keep up with what was going on.

I am planning on writing up a massive report this week that will attempt to get people from 0 to informed on what is going on with Asicminer.  If anyone would like to help with this, let me know via forum PM.

The first thing I hope to produce is a one page brief as a TL;DR so hopefully we avoid a flood of noob questions, if you have input on what should be included in that please let me know.

I hope to get the one page release draft done today, and then maybe pay someone on fiver to make it look nice (unless someone here is good at info-graphics).

Sounds great. I'm not sure how I could contribute but I think it's a great idea.

[Xu]

4 blocks mined in less than 24 hours. Last week we found 3 blocks all week. The odds that this is just "good luck" is about 3.4%. Put another way, there is roughly a 96% chance that AM's hashrate just got a fairly dramatic increase. FC got sample chips, and got them hashing already, and their performance boosted AM's hash rate that much?

It's all just speculation at this point, but signs are looking really good...you can almost feel a coming FC announcement in the air.

How did you get 3.4%?  My math show that the odds of good luck is a lot lower given you average 3 blocks a week but found 4 in a day.

It was really a sort of back of the envelop calculation, but here is how I got it. If we found 3 blocks in 7 days, there is a 3/7 chance of finding 1 block per day. 4 in a day would be (3/7)^4 which is about 3.4%.

Assuming my math is right, that means about a 1 in 30 chance of 4 blocks on any given day, so this sort of thing should happen about once a month, so it might not be anything other than just random luck.

[donut]

How come recent blocks here shows 1 block: http://erpao.info/blocks

But there are actually 3 recent blocks mined?  Does erpao just show the last 1 block?

I think erpao is the old hardware monitoring site they made. Which only monitors old hardware.

Which leads me to speculate that 3 of the last 4 blocks were mined on new hardware.

What do you guys think?

[gog1]

4 blocks mined in less than 24 hours. Last week we found 3 blocks all week. The odds that this is just "good luck" is about 3.4%. Put another way, there is roughly a 96% chance that AM's hashrate just got a fairly dramatic increase. FC got sample chips, and got them hashing already, and their performance boosted AM's hash rate that much?

It's all just speculation at this point, but signs are looking really good...you can almost feel a coming FC announcement in the air.

How did you get 3.4%?  My math show that the odds of good luck is a lot lower given you average 3 blocks a week but found 4 in a day.

Not intend to challenge you, just want to share your methodology.

Care you show your math?

If we find 3 blocks in 7 days, that's avg of 3/7 blocks per day and if assume Poisson process, we have the following:
blocks found / probability
0 / 0.6514
1 / 0.2792
2 / 0.0598
3 / 0.0085
4 / 0.0001+

Going back all the way to mid Dec, I cannot find any 24 hour period where we have >3 blocks.

[ZephramC]

You can find this directly on the Havelock AM1 Page.... here it is below...

Exporting Shares
Shares can be exported from AM1 into Direct ASICMINER shares by anyone, with the following limitations:
- One transfer OUT of AM1 will be processed free once per 30 days per account. Subsequent transfers within the same month OUT of AM1 are subject to a fee of 0.25 BTC for transfers of 49 shares or less.
- Transfers OUT of AM1 are always free for any transfer of 50 shares or more, but still have the 30-day limit between requests.
- Export requests will be submitted to ASICMINER once per week, if your request does not make it into the current week, it will be processed the following week. Please note that confirmations and status updates will NOT be provided until the process is complete.

How to Export to Direct Shares:
1. Push your AM1 shares directly back to the issuer, by using the "Xfr" feature on your Portfolio page at HavelockInvestments.com
2. Send an email to tat.investments@gmail.com that details the quantity of the shares that you pushed, the wallet address & email address you want them to have in ASICMINER's direct share records.
3. After we receive confirmation from Friedcat that the transfer is complete, we will notify you.

The email should be sent to Havelock Investments email instead of tat.investments from 1.3. 2014, right?

[rudi]

If we find 3 blocks in 7 days, that's avg of 3/7 blocks per day and if assume Poisson process, we have the following:
blocks found / probability
0 / 0.6514
1 / 0.2792
2 / 0.0598
3 / 0.0085
4 / 0.0001+

Going back all the way to mid Dec, I cannot find any 24 hour period where we have >3 blocks.

Almost.
We need to use the cumulative distribution function.
Then, assuming a rate of 3/7 blocks found per day, we get:

Chance of finding more than 0 blocks per day: 34.856094 %
Chance of finding more than 1 block per day: 6.937277 %
Chance of finding more than 2 blocks per day: 0.954674 %
Chance of finding more than 3 blocks per day: 0.100016 %

This is not just variance.

(In python:
import scipy.stats
1. - scipy.stats.distributions.poisson.cdf(blocks_per_day_new, blocks_per_day_old))

[trilogy456]

You can find this directly on the Havelock AM1 Page.... here it is below...

Exporting Shares
Shares can be exported from AM1 into Direct ASICMINER shares by anyone, with the following limitations:
- One transfer OUT of AM1 will be processed free once per 30 days per account. Subsequent transfers within the same month OUT of AM1 are subject to a fee of 0.25 BTC for transfers of 49 shares or less.
- Transfers OUT of AM1 are always free for any transfer of 50 shares or more, but still have the 30-day limit between requests.
- Export requests will be submitted to ASICMINER once per week, if your request does not make it into the current week, it will be processed the following week. Please note that confirmations and status updates will NOT be provided until the process is complete.

How to Export to Direct Shares:
1. Push your AM1 shares directly back to the issuer, by using the "Xfr" feature on your Portfolio page at HavelockInvestments.com
2. Send an email to tat.investments@gmail.com that details the quantity of the shares that you pushed, the wallet address & email address you want them to have in ASICMINER's direct share records.
3. After we receive confirmation from Friedcat that the transfer is complete, we will notify you.

The email should be sent to Havelock Investments email instead of tat.investments from 1.3. 2014, right?

Havelock has said above that the email is going to change after the first of the month, so watch for that on their site.

"After March 1st, Havelock Investments will handle the Importing and Exporting of shares in and out of Havelock instead of TAT. Nothing in terms of fees will change.
Instructions on how to import and export your shares will be available on our AM Fund page on Havelock Investments.

In the event that Havelock can no longer stay in business for whatever reason, shareholders will send us a dedicated Bitcoin address from their email address tied to their account on Havelock.

A list of the shareholders' Bitcoin address and the number of units they hold will be sent directly to friedcat with a request to transfer the shares to direct shares."

[michaelGedi]

Some of you may remember a while back I used to write up weekly reports on AM news... I did this for several weeks in a row when there was a torrent of information coming out and it took several hours of reading a day just to keep up with what was going on.

I am planning on writing up a massive report this week that will attempt to get people from 0 to informed on what is going on with Asicminer.  If anyone would like to help with this, let me know via forum PM.

The first thing I hope to produce is a one page brief as a TL;DR so hopefully we avoid a flood of noob questions, if you have input on what should be included in that please let me know.

I hope to get the one page release draft done today, and then maybe pay someone on fiver to make it look nice (unless someone here is good at info-graphics).

looking forward to read it sir

+1

[gog1]

If we find 3 blocks in 7 days, that's avg of 3/7 blocks per day and if assume Poisson process, we have the following:
blocks found / probability
0 / 0.6514
1 / 0.2792
2 / 0.0598
3 / 0.0085
4 / 0.0001+

Going back all the way to mid Dec, I cannot find any 24 hour period where we have >3 blocks.

Almost.
We need to use the cumulative distribution function.
Then, assuming a rate of 3/7 blocks found per day, we get:

Chance of finding more than 0 blocks per day: 34.856094 %
Chance of finding more than 1 block per day: 6.937277 %
Chance of finding more than 2 blocks per day: 0.954674 %
Chance of finding more than 3 blocks per day: 0.100016 %

This is not just variance.

(In python:
import scipy.stats
1. - scipy.stats.distributions.poisson.cdf(blocks_per_day_new, blocks_per_day_old))

At the end of the day, there are still uncertainty until we see announcement and things come along.  The recent could be
1) luck
2) friedcat is testing 'sample' miners
Even if things look good, there's always potential for operational issue as you do not control the manufacturing & assembly plant.

[rudi]

At the end of the day, there are still uncertainty until we see announcement and things come along.  The recent could be
1) luck
2) friedcat is testing 'sample' miners
Even if things look good, there's always potential for operational issue as you do not control the manufacturing & assembly plant.

Four blocks in 24 hours is consistent with a hashrate of about 500TH/s.
If this is really the case, and not just extreme luck, then the "sample" is about 40000 gen3 chips. Quite a sample!

[eiprol]

At the end of the day, there are still uncertainty until we see announcement and things come along.  The recent could be
1) luck
2) friedcat is testing 'sample' miners
Even if things look good, there's always potential for operational issue as you do not control the manufacturing & assembly plant.

Four blocks in 24 hours is consistent with a hashrate of about 500TH/s.
If this is really the case, and not just extreme luck, then the "sample" is about 40000 gen3 chips. Quite a sample!

You could be right... or AM could be testing/filling the new datacenter with gen3... or even better, maybe in the new gen3, after all the waiting, chips are much more powerful than expected and the sample isn't that big  

 

[Zubilica]

At the end of the day, there are still uncertainty until we see announcement and things come along.  The recent could be
1) luck
2) friedcat is testing 'sample' miners
Even if things look good, there's always potential for operational issue as you do not control the manufacturing & assembly plant.

Four blocks in 24 hours is consistent with a hashrate of about 500TH/s.
If this is really the case, and not just extreme luck, then the "sample" is about 40000 gen3 chips. Quite a sample!

YEP 500 TH/s or maybe the chips are better than advertised and "under promise , over deliver" is still in progress

[chriswilmer]

Yeah... it really just sounds like luck.

[Chris_Sabian]

Yeah... it really just sounds like luck.

Check back in 72 hours to see.  That way we will get a better idea.

[ThickAsThieves]

REMINDER: AM1, AM100, and the SMG passthrough will all be controlled by Havelock Investments by March 1st, 2014.

The underlying ASICMINER shares are already in the process of being transferred to 1J5fvfUrDcZj8rrpVHMgn8u7sXee84QkPd --- AMFund@havelockinvestments.com

All AM1,AM100, and SMG(PT) transfer requests and related support requests should be sent to the Havelock from now on.

[bitcoin.newsfeed]

Guys, I don't want to ruin your little circlejerk party here, but we saw this kind of luck in the past. Its useful to come with conclusion after several days(2+). I personally burn myself once, when I was very exiting awaiting Gen2 and saw this kind of luck.

Haha, you guys are seeing 4 blocks/day and you're so excited about it, that you're writing 2-3pages about it, i don't really want to see what will happen with this thread when Friedcat actually delivers

[neilol]

Guys, I don't want to ruin your little circlejerk party here, but we saw this kind of luck in the past. Its useful to come with conclusion after several days(2+). I personally burn myself once, when I was very exiting awaiting Gen2 and saw this kind of luck.

Haha, you guys are seeing 4 blocks/day and you're so excited about it, that you're writing 2-3pages about it, i don't really want to see what will happen with this thread when Friedcat actually delivers

That's exactly how I took this - wild positive speculation based on no real news. There is going to be a serious squeeze if gen3 delivers at or above expectations. Less and less liquid supply on Havelock as people xfer to direct.

[aahzmundus]

I sit on Just-Dice a good amount and watch people lose their money, not only that but my background is in psychology.  What we are seeing today could very well be variance, because variance is a bitch.

The other possibility, is that this is old hardware coming online.  Remember several months ago we had huge issues with deployment space, we could be seeing the results of new space opening up, and finally turning hardware on.

[Chris_Sabian]

AM just found their 5th block in 26 hours!

[Zubilica]

AM just found their 5th block in 26 hours!

common , it may be luck ))