IIRC, the bid wall vanished for some time yesterday and the price rallied 5% or so.
The walls are just in place to help sweep up whatever lint is blowing around.
My take is that we have a small integer number of market participants only, and they are playing against one another...those of us who are not putting multi-K BTC block on the table are increasingly irrelevant. That was plain to see in the latter half of yesterday.
I also doubt very seriously that the real market participants pay any attention whatsoever to what a few yahoos (myself very much included) write on these boards. This aspect of the data is probably not even solid enough to get a feel for what lint is blowing around.
If I was manipulating such a large volume of currency I would be on these boards trying to spread as much misinformation as possible to the effect that I was going to do the exact opposite of what I was really doing. This is a relatively small community and there is a lot that could be learned/anticipated by the manipulator if they paid attention to this forum. |
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Did anyone else see that big buy rally up to 2.25 then fall back down to 2.18?
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Well, I spoke too soon. The consensus was right, the $2.20 wall for 50k was removed, panic selling ensued down to $1.9999.
It does appear to be a very aggressive type of market maker.
There's now bids for 100k over $2. In my favor, the fact that $2 held has some starting to accept the possibility of a bottom.
After the first drop below $2 briefly to 1.94998 or whatever it was there was some invisible reistance at $2 by the looks of it. I would say this was due to people being leveraged at bitcoinica but I do have to wondering if $2 is the real bottom here. There were some heavy sells into $2 but it just would not cross that mark despite there being no visible bidwalls there. This type of behaviour is what makes me think this is the real bottom too. |
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In a sense we are all manipulators by speculating on the price. Those that say it needs to go down as quickly as possible are manipulating it down because Im sure at least a few people are basing their decisions on what goes on these forums. At the same time saying the price really should be higher we are manipulating it higher by adding confidence in Bitcoins. I think we have already fallen very quickly from just a week ago (~50%) and $2 might be the low you have been looking for.
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lol nice. I see the coin in my wallet now.
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I agree with you 100% Jonahan. I honestly look forward to a bitcoin that I can actually use and spend, without worrying about price fluctuations etc.
I see an economic fallacy brewing here (not just in that quote but in the forums generally)... there seems to be a notion that a lower price equals a less volatile price, and thus a lower price means Bitcoin is more easily used in commerce. This is a fallacy and in fact quite the opposite is true. The lower the price of Bitcoin, the more easily it will swing when $X come in search of it, or when $X attempt to exit it. Consider if the price fell to $0.01/btc. By myself, with $10,000, I could buy almost 1/7th of the entire supply of Bitcoin. Of course, acquiring 1/7th of the supply would shoot the price up quite a bit. My $10,000 would seriously hamper all y'all's commerce. Consider the alternative case, if Bitcoins were trading at $1,000 each. My $10,000 purchase then only buys me ten coins and will make no dent in the market price. Even $100,000 could move in and out of the market without much trouble. The point is this: you can make the argument that btc isn't worth $2 each and should be lower, fine. But you cannot make the argument that it ought to be lower so that it can more easily be used in commerce due to volatility issues. Volatility, when short and medium term noise is removed, will be inversely proportional to the Bitcoin price in percentage terms. And again, a $1,000/btc price is exactly as easy to use in commerce as a $1/btc price due to the full divisibility of these things. If you're not using Bitcoins in commerce now, it will not be any "easier" if the price is halved... it will in fact be more problematic and more volatile. And buying one $1 coin is no more difficult than buying two $0.50 coins, or half a $2 coin. Don't let notation distract you! Anyone disagree?
People should stop whining about manipulators, etc., but rather DO SOMETHING TO ATTRACT NEW INVESTORS into bitcoins. That's the only way out of this vicious cycle.
And, I hope that the Prague conference also has this as objective and not only software development.
Because all this development will be useless if bitcoin prices fall more and stay down.
No merchant will ever want to get in with this huge volatility and manipulation risk.i disagree. with everyone. told it before: he mixed up "heavy price decline" with volatility. and nobody can't deny that: the less worth Bitcoin are, the more stable there price (the less volatile) it is gona be. as often said before: when price is 0.0001 $/bitcoin me and my friends are able of buying all btc available - and yes, we are gonna do that^^ --> a price below $1 is much more "useable" cause there will be much less PRICE DECLINE risk. - and that is indeed very good for business. imagine you sell e.g. a donut today for 1BTC at marketvalue $0.5 and tomorrow it is worth $1 and so on .. basically it is: the closer to the all-time-since-bubble-low, the better for bitcoin price stability-outlook. a huge inflation fucks up both sides: businesses (who may hold some btc) and customers (who bought btc). a slightly deflation (after all-time-after-bubble-low) will help both sides, since the customer will not be afraid anymore to buy bitcoins (the worst thing that can happen is that he sells them at the same price he bought them) and the businesses can profit even higher from recieving something, which slowly increases in value. conclusion: get below $2 as fast as possible! (not that i think there is any other choice) let the manipulator get a lection in free market price balance and that obvious-manipulation is obvious^^ Every post you have made basically goes - WE NEED $1 BITCOINS NOW!!! I am starting to wonder if you are the manipulator with all this wishing it goes so low. The reality is that the lower it goes the easier it is to manipulate. The lower it is, the lower the dollar value of all the money invested in Bitcoins becomes and therefore becomes more volatile. The only reason someone would want bitcoin so low would be to get rid of the bitcoin currency all together. Be careful what you wish for. |
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I say if its going to be renamed then we use a common venacular among those who already use it. The Satoshi. Bitcoins are already referred to as Satoshis and it sounds better too.
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since the manipulator once again struggled hard to manipulate the price above $2 i suggest it is just a matter of time until the price goes deeper than $1.
the manipulator can't just make the price not going deeper. in order to reach its real worth, bitcoin has to touch its ground at least once.
i really really really doubt that the manipulators bidwalls at 2$ are anything close to a real bottom. therefore market will beat manipulator. the sooner, the better, than finally bitcoin can be "used" (cause it is no more a manipulator-zombie).
I am not sure why you are cheering for BTC to go below $1. The lower the price, the easier it is for said person to manipulate the price. It requires proportionally less USD holdings or BTC holdings which they have demonstrated they have a significant amount of both. Low priced Bitcoin is actually a bad thing in contrary to what you believe. |
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I am wondering if the manipulator waited for the market to naturally bottom out before getting back into it. Testing the waters to see how far it would drop before he came back with his money to buy as many coins as possible. The $2 invisible wall was hit and now he is showing off by putting a real (although perhaps temporary) wall at $2. Before he got back in there was a lot of volatility but now it seems to have stabilized quite a bit. So either we are saved or about to head to another big drop.
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So the bulk of that is 1 person with a bid for 24,560,177 BTC at 0.00001 USD
For a mere $245 or so.. you too can be 'the manipulator'!
Strange that mtgox even allows a bid of more coins than can possibly exist though :/
Didnt catch that... I think its time for bed lol |
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Considering I just saw 5 BTC drop the price 1 cent I don't think this eould be good for the community. As for asking yoursef (assuming you own said number of BTC) then I think you need to ask yourself what the long term prospects for BTC are.
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I hope he loses for bitcoins sake
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If MTGox isn't one of them then I would be truly surprised. 0.55-0.6% on each end of the transaction= 1.1-1.2% of each transaction at a daily value of 360k bitcoins the other day pretty much spells it out. The real winner in all of this as in the real fiat currency world are the exchange brokers. In this sense Bitcoin is a failure since it was supposed to represent something other than this ideally.
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Something interesting comes to mind with the manipulators current bidwalls, especially when I look at them in context of the last few hours. By this I mean is that there was real but hidden resistance at 2.00 from presumably bitcoinica. Due to this I believe he has put up the massive bidwall (appx ~45K BTC) at 2.00 in an attempt to fool the bots. Now if it gets to $2.00 his bidwall will push it higher thus fooling the bots. All bets are off though if he suddenly pulls all his bidwalls which he has done before. Right now seems to be a very low volume period but I am assuming this is the norm at this time of day/night. Im sure I will wake up to find either 2.40 bitcoin or 1.95 bitcoin with this clown back in it.
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And there you have it folks. People want to drive down the value of the currency because they are bitter that they lost so much when it was at $15-$30. There is not much that can be done to stop the manipulator unless somone finds a way to punish him/them for putting up their bidwalls. Of course whoever was to do this would require a lot of capital themselves.
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Blackout, you should revise your statement about moving to Portugal where everything is legal... You are batshit crazy if you think things are like that around here.  Just so you know, some of the biggest cocaine busts in Europe happened in Portugal, and jails are full of guys who might have thought the same as you... You just crushed my dreams. Dream crusher. Well this thread got dragged up from the dreggs so I will just say it. Silk Road is one of the reasons why BTC has lost legitimacy in many peoples eyes. Yes cash of various currencies is still the #1 method which people pay for drugs but a massive black market culture is only going to add to the stigma people have with bitcoins. I have never googled it but I would have thought Silkroad would be gone by now. |
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major sell off: 20,00BTC
Time: 22 hours from now
$1.70/BTC: 62days
And TY Jon |
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I notice at the very least they have smartened up and gone from a 50k solid bidwall to a more distributed one. Instantly when they got back into the market the price jumped $0.15/BTC. Assuming their goal is to cash out as much as they can in USD temporarily pumping the bidwalls to raise the asking price they are in the long term causing a decline in bitcoin value per coin. When the steps are there it makes it appear a lot more like they are trying to get rid of their coins while minimizing their financial risk. I would like to believe we are going back up but when they are creating bidwalls and pulling out 50-80k in coin demand instantly its only going to cause the price to fall more dramatically.
I wish we knew who this was so we could ask them what their intentions are. In all likelihood though they would misrepresent them in order to further their own financial positon. Assuming their bidwalls stay in place the next few hours I have no idea what to expect.
I have a few ideas of who it is, and what their intentions are. I've met some absolute yahoo's in Bitcoin, man. I was harsh towards you earlier because we don't need yet another cultist in our midst. If you really want to imagine why they're doing what they're doing, manage to wrap your head around the idea that their whole being is centered around Bitcoin and its success, and then further imagine what mental gymnastics and ego preservation techniques you might employ if you were forestalling the inevitable? It's not difficult to understand irrationality, but it is hard to imagine that he isn't starting to crack under the pressure. He's not buying coins to hoard, as demonstrated by his unmitigated 'cancel' trigger finger for his offers as soon as he gets nibbled away at. No, he's trying to ignite a rally by providing price supports that NOBODY believes in anymore. It's too late for him, and his best option if he wants Bitcoin to succeed is to let it take its walk down into the $1 range, because again, NOT A SINGLE PERSON BELIEVES HIM, AND THEY THINK HE'S A JOKE.Given that you're more on the bullish side, and stating what everyone else is thinking, I think it's fair to say that the lack of a bid wall growing in front of his facade of borrowed cash signals (finally! jesus..) the end to false price supports, and possibly a new and more measured beginning. The next chapter of Bitcoin awaits us, Mr. Manipulator. You will not be able to stop it, and you WILL be left behind. -Jonathan The lack of bidwall in front of him more than likely signals people sitting back to see what happens in my opinion. If he really is trying to get rid of his coins for money then his massive bidwalls when they get eaten into a few thousand coins at a time kind of defeat that purpose. I am not so sure he wants bitcoin to succeed either. My opinion is that it is someone in it for personal greed either in coins or USD. The coins thing as a whole is a good thing as long as he reinvests as much USD into Bitcoin as he extracts although I am not sure this is the case either. Originally I thought this was someone who was trying to increase their cash holdings while maintaining BTC which of course would send the price plummiting give the fact the actual capital is so low. I like the idea of selling mining power for BTC to organizations for something such as F@Home because it adds capital to the market and if those are doing it wish to do so they can liquidate their capital. Of course this would not be enough for everyone but it is one idea of how to stimulate a bitcoin economy. As far as the bidwalls go I am surprised he has not pulled any as of yet which makes me wonder what his true intentions are. He hasn't been nibbled too much yet, actually. When the next massive sell comes in, he'll pull his walls after ~2000 coins hit him. His intentions are to provide price support. If he gets hit hard too quickly and he ends up purchasing those coins, he's going to have to sell them back into a declining market to get his borrowed funds back. OK. If people think the price is inflated and they are still holding BTC, why would they not sell into his bidwall. I have seen bites higher than 1000BTC and thousands within seconds and the prices had not changed much since then. That is unless of course he is buying into his own bid walls whihc wouldnt make sense at all. |
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Next volume of major sell off: 5000BTC
Time: say 2 hours from now
$1.70/BTC - next tuesday.
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I notice at the very least they have smartened up and gone from a 50k solid bidwall to a more distributed one. Instantly when they got back into the market the price jumped $0.15/BTC. Assuming their goal is to cash out as much as they can in USD temporarily pumping the bidwalls to raise the asking price they are in the long term causing a decline in bitcoin value per coin. When the steps are there it makes it appear a lot more like they are trying to get rid of their coins while minimizing their financial risk. I would like to believe we are going back up but when they are creating bidwalls and pulling out 50-80k in coin demand instantly its only going to cause the price to fall more dramatically.
I wish we knew who this was so we could ask them what their intentions are. In all likelihood though they would misrepresent them in order to further their own financial positon. Assuming their bidwalls stay in place the next few hours I have no idea what to expect.
I have a few ideas of who it is, and what their intentions are. I've met some absolute yahoo's in Bitcoin, man. I was harsh towards you earlier because we don't need yet another cultist in our midst. If you really want to imagine why they're doing what they're doing, manage to wrap your head around the idea that their whole being is centered around Bitcoin and its success, and then further imagine what mental gymnastics and ego preservation techniques you might employ if you were forestalling the inevitable? It's not difficult to understand irrationality, but it is hard to imagine that he isn't starting to crack under the pressure. He's not buying coins to hoard, as demonstrated by his unmitigated 'cancel' trigger finger for his offers as soon as he gets nibbled away at. No, he's trying to ignite a rally by providing price supports that NOBODY believes in anymore. It's too late for him, and his best option if he wants Bitcoin to succeed is to let it take its walk down into the $1 range, because again, NOT A SINGLE PERSON BELIEVES HIM, AND THEY THINK HE'S A JOKE.Given that you're more on the bullish side, and stating what everyone else is thinking, I think it's fair to say that the lack of a bid wall growing in front of his facade of borrowed cash signals (finally! jesus..) the end to false price supports, and possibly a new and more measured beginning. The next chapter of Bitcoin awaits us, Mr. Manipulator. You will not be able to stop it, and you WILL be left behind. -Jonathan The lack of bidwall in front of him more than likely signals people sitting back to see what happens in my opinion. If he really is trying to get rid of his coins for money then his massive bidwalls when they get eaten into a few thousand coins at a time kind of defeat that purpose. I am not so sure he wants bitcoin to succeed either. My opinion is that it is someone in it for personal greed either in coins or USD. The coins thing as a whole is a good thing as long as he reinvests as much USD into Bitcoin as he extracts although I am not sure this is the case either. Originally I thought this was someone who was trying to increase their cash holdings while maintaining BTC which of course would send the price plummiting give the fact the actual capital is so low. I like the idea of selling mining power for BTC to organizations for something such as F@Home because it adds capital to the market and if those are doing it wish to do so they can liquidate their capital. Of course this would not be enough for everyone but it is one idea of how to stimulate a bitcoin economy. As far as the bidwalls go I am surprised he has not pulled any as of yet which makes me wonder what his true intentions are. |
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