I'm not buying while it's valid:
I guess we are trading on different time frames completely. Im a day trader and long term holder, If that situation unfolded, you can bet I'd be short the best of the way down with my 20% funds on BFX. The way I see it, is that If I can catch a third wave (as I have) a leveraged day trading position may suddenly become a long term position to hold on to. |
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A primary wave never stands alone, even in consolidation. this could be an A, but much more likely it is a primary.
If I see a primary wave where I expect one because of fundamentals, I'll forget the TA. Im NOT going to buy high to a lagging indicator, we can see with our own eyes.
"buy high" is somewhere around $1000  MUAhahahaha |
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also, buying the fifth wave is not a hold position, as usually it is 100% retraced. I will be shorting if it plays out clearly. I imagine it could be catalysed by the last of the chinese news - say Huobi shutting down.
If the fifth wave 100% retraces, then we won't break the 200-day EMA by it. And it would mean we still won't break the downtrend line. So, there are still no confirmations of an uptrend to me. I still have EW counts that tell me a possibility of the downtrend continuation within the next 3 weeks to the possible bottom at ~325. While this count is not invalidated, I will rather sit tight and see what happens. Every EW counts should be confirmed by traditional TA and important EMAs. A primary wave never stands alone, even in consolidation. this could be an A, but much more likely it is a primary. If I see a primary wave where I expect one because of fundamentals, I'll forget the TA. Im NOT going to buy high to a lagging indicator, we can see with our own eyes. |
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Sounds strange to me. we have a leading indicator, but the EMA is telling you to buy the fifth wave. better idea, look to short the fifth of the fifth wave and make an absolute killing.
200-day EMA is a barrier which is hard to break. Once we break it, we won't dive below it anymore soon. So, if we break 200-day EMA, we'll have an extended 5th wave. Why not buy it if it's extended?Or if we fail to break the 200-day EMA, we'll possibly break it by the 3rd wave of higher level. Why not buy the 3rd wave then? we dont know that yet. sure, buy the fifth wave, but take the third wave gratefully, that is where the money lies. also, buying the fifth wave is not a hold position, as usually it is 100% retraced. I will be shorting if it plays out clearly. I imagine it could be catalysed by the last of the chinese news - say Huobi shutting down. |
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Sounds strange to me. we have a leading indicator, but the EMA is telling you to buy the fifth wave. better idea, look to short the fifth of the fifth wave and make an absolute killing.
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I dont see any good reason for it either, but maybe that's its nature.
- there is one born every minute, and there is a bitcoin boom and bust every six months.
maybe it is constant because until now it has been consistently driven by 99% speculators. But one could also argue that the 'china ban' was an unforseen event that drove this market - I do not agree. it was fud - news comes and goes every day, the market only moves when it is vulnerable.
I am sure it will change when fundamental forces kick in - the elbow. we have not seen this yet.
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Takes 10 yrs screen time to see price. Once u do that u may win 51 lose 49 times but dont ask for more.. usually your edge isnt much bigger in markets.. any forex guru claiming 75%+ win rate is a scammer one way or another gauranteed. In the end its not about the fact that your system gives an edge
but how u control you emotions to execute. Thats all you need to know to make money. Easier said than done.
thats true for ignorant traders. we have unfolding fundamental themes here. the more knowledge one has, the more accurately one can read the charts. Stock traders are usually professionals in their fields, such as mining, commodities etc... they have a stronger edge. I am not the only one here who has made more than 10x my money here. Bitcoin is a phenomena. The forex markets are much larger and robust, randomised, and manipulated. I would agree that nobody can sytematically make 75% from that. I also agree about the emotions, not only your emotions/logic but others aswell. |
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TA is not a religion, it reflects the economical and geometrical necessity of buy low sell high. EW has a scientific fundamental explanation, and guages real fundamental factors, most significantly sentiment. I don't expect you to see beyond your religion well ignorance is bliss, aye? |
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Too much barking, too little biting. Proof or GTFO.
You are late to the party, proof has been. you can find it yourself. |
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Post-Cosmic, thanks for your reason.
I do have the illustrations, that is what I am referring to as proof. simple and easy.
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Bitcoin goes down to 0.50, people start buying like crazy due to the low price - value is restored, correct?
... or hows about we dont go down to 50c and value is maintained because the market is forward looking  Yes of course, but just a theoretical scenario where this happens isn't really that bad is it? That's the point i was trying to make  oh I see, late to the party was I?  |
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I have proof you are 100% wrong.
I make new odds for you..... 580 before 480. my analysis at stake.
I heard you lost some coins yesterday, what was your analysis? (I didnt lose any -made lots)
I don't have any analysis because it is superstition and as likely to be correct as guessing. I don't expect you to see beyond your religion. When I said I lost some coins it was hyperbole as I watched the train leaving. I sold 3 at 475, so it's not yet as dire as I posted. Overall I am about 90% in BTC so I sold a few thinking we might see 300. As I said I hope your guess is correct, although it will cause me to lose more of those 3 coins, because my remaining coins will be worth more. As for whether you have many or few coins, made many or lost many, it means nothing to me as I don't believe a word you say. You seem on the verge of pathology. ah, guessing, a gambler. everyone who has ever criticised my work has absolutely shit risk management skills, absolutely no experience with TA EW and no fundamental decision. I have a list of illustrations that prove exactly how many %gain I have made in the past month, but you believe what you like, ask nanobrain where the market will probably go next. |
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Bitcoin goes down to 0.50, people start buying like crazy due to the low price - value is restored, correct?
... or hows about we dont go down to 50c and value is maintained because the market is forward looking |
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Ok, it sounds like I got wrong... what you said. I will shut up now and watch the events unfold no need for that. They are still odds. dont shut up, but do watch the events unfold. |
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On the EW thread we are expecting a blow out fifth wave, above 580, possibly high 600s. no news required - just natural exhaustion. for this analysis to hold, we cannot pass 450.
Here's hoping this is the within the 50% you guess correctly. what? I have been specific as the market will allow me. in 2-3 days you should remember that I am expecting for at least 580 to be touched. This is not a guess, this is analysis, and it is at stake. Just as cleromancy was analysis for the Bronze Age. They got it right @50% as well, just like you. I have proof you are 100% wrong. I make new odds for you..... 580 before 480. my analysis at stake. I heard you lost some coins yesterday, what was your analysis? (I didnt lose any -made lots) |
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On the EW thread we are expecting a blow out fifth wave, above 580, possibly high 600s. no news required - just natural exhaustion. for this analysis to hold, we cannot pass 450.
Here's hoping this is the within the 50% you guess correctly. what? I have been specific as the market will allow me. in 2-3 days you should remember that I am expecting for at least 580 to be touched. This is not a guess, this is analysis, and it is at stake. .... I'll change the odds just for you keyser. I say we pass 580 before 480. |
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On the EW thread we are expecting a blow out fifth wave, above 580, possibly high 600s. no news required - just natural exhaustion. for this analysis to hold, we cannot pass 450.
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Primary wave took 1.5 days to complete, third wave took 2.5 days to complete. how many days will fifth wave take to complete?
Probably 2.5+1.5 = 4 days or (2.5+4.5)*1.618 = 6.5 days. Or: 2.5-1.5 = 1 day. But now I'm not sure we will continue going up. why not? |
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Naively, it is MORE likely to gain strongly after a sharp drop.
yup agreed but I am talking about the statistics not the probability. |
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