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1581  Economy / Speculation / Re: Silkroad closed down. Owner Arrested. on: October 02, 2013, 09:17:53 PM
So the crash was caused by good news?  lol  Smiley

or by huge sales amounts. which i believe can be confiscated wallets as written in the report. why not sell and pay off part of us govt debt?

If they held onto them for a few years, they could pay off the entire national debt with them!

You clearly don't have good comprehension of the liabilities the US government is facing...

Or I'm incredibly bullish!


Pretty bullish to aim for 100 trillion dollars.

Um.... in what world does the USG owe $100 trillion?

And in what world does 26,000 BTC = 1 BTC?
1582  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Is Dropping on BitStamp on: October 02, 2013, 09:13:52 PM
It is so overloaded orders got $5 to $10 slippage Sad

why are you using market orders?

When price is rising from 90 to 120 in 10 minutes the market order is the only way to buy. Unless you know a better way that doesn't involve black magic...

You can always limit order above market price.

That's market order Wink

Unless the low ask is taken before your order hits Wink
1583  Economy / Speculation / Re: My $145 resistance / silk road tinfoil hat conspiracy theory. on: October 02, 2013, 08:59:30 PM
OP was bad enough... now you nut jobs are trying to tie it to the USG shutdown?  WTF?

BTW, the charges were filed on September 27th.
1584  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 02, 2013, 08:48:40 PM
imo I would still be cautious.  SR accounted for ~300-400 million in revenue a year for bitcoins.  Much of which was from fresh money being brought in by customers.  I don't know of anything else in the same stratosphere in terms of bringing in money into the network.  SR was/is a big deal.  Will there be other sites to take its place?  Sure.. but to what extent they will fill that void remains to be seen.  Also will customers/vendors of these sites be weary about jumping back into this market?

Bitcoin doesn't earn revenue, and SR was mostly neutral for supply and demand.

Buyers bought btc, sellers sold btc to buy product.
1585  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Great Silk Road Crash of 20** ...? on: October 02, 2013, 08:44:02 PM
I've always been saying that Bitcoin is backed by SR and gambling. People keep telling me there is some bigger fantasy Bitcoin economy. Now you see.

The fact that a few hours of panic selling by inexperienced traders is enough for you to declare victory is telling.
1586  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Great Silk Road Crash of 20** ...? on: October 02, 2013, 08:41:55 PM
I prefer to sell now and buy more at the bottom.  Holding in a crash is pointless, IMO.

Unless the crash turns into a stiletto Tongue
1587  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 02, 2013, 08:14:34 PM

The handle is ready to fire!



lol

nice try Tongue
1588  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop panic selling on: October 02, 2013, 08:11:25 PM
They seized a few million in bitcoins, you don't think people here have more than that?
They seems have seized few million WORTH of Bitcoin (in USD value).

I hope they have brains to keep it safe. Maybe then, a few years down the road they will be able to pay up that fiat debt of theirs.

I'm not sure you want the FBI to have enough bitcoins to pay off the entire USG debt.  They are a law enforcement agency and will not give up their bitcoins.  They will use them to wield their influence.  Much of what they do is good, but with things like N-DEx they are an NSA wannabe with a data access security hole the size of every police department in the US.

You're all assuming the dread Pirate did not have a self destruct in place. It would be nice if he had, especially for the customers.

My comment stands on its own without such assumptions.  A dead mans switch is possible, but it does not change the fact that the USG will not be paying down debt with funds seized by the FBI.
1589  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop panic selling on: October 02, 2013, 08:03:22 PM
They seized a few million in bitcoins, you don't think people here have more than that?
They seems have seized few million WORTH of Bitcoin (in USD value).

I hope they have brains to keep it safe. Maybe then, a few years down the road they will be able to pay up that fiat debt of theirs.

I'm not sure you want the FBI to have enough bitcoins to pay off the entire USG debt.  They are a law enforcement agency and will not give up their bitcoins.  They will use them to wield their influence.  Much of what they do is good, but with things like N-DEx they are an NSA wannabe with a data access security hole the size of every police department in the US.
1590  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop panic selling on: October 02, 2013, 08:00:11 PM
Holy crap I totally missed all the cheap coins! You look away for one day and insane discounts are everywhere!

Wrong: You look away 10 minutes!! DAMN IT

My market making bot was ready with his standing orders Tongue

I love volatility Cheesy.
1591  Economy / Speculation / Re: [SHARE] Your Personal Analysis (only post with pictures) on: October 01, 2013, 04:26:08 AM
It seems you are just arbitrarily drawing that purple line.

Welcome to the speculation subforum!
1592  Economy / Speculation / Re: U.S. Debt Default Bullish for Bitcoin? on: September 30, 2013, 08:51:55 PM
They will redefine the dollar before they will default.
1593  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 28, 2013, 06:25:20 PM
Zerocoin will only happen in the form of an altcoin.

In that case, it will be interesting to see what happens with whichever alt adopts the protocols.

Zerocoin does not give you free anonymity.  For that, you also have to add in random time delays.  Otherwise, it is a simple timing analysis away from bitcoin.  And, of course, time is money.
1594  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market has peaked, sell off incoming. on: September 28, 2013, 07:37:29 AM


We're either completing wave 4 and my count was accurate or we have completed an ABC corrective and will resume the downtrend sometime between here and $147ish.



It may take some time to pick a direction though.
1595  Economy / Economics / Re: Need your advice please on: September 28, 2013, 06:57:53 AM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging
1596  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will The Bitcoin Investment Trust affect the price? on: September 27, 2013, 07:32:49 PM
Oh, there will be another party alright. But by then most participants will be positioned incorrectly.

Well going back to your CIA suspicions and the Billion Dollar Bitcoin, I think I get it now, I'll reread it.
It looks to me that the function of the FED in Bitcoin Land has been effectively crowd sourced to speculators, and being on the correct side is all about managing the flow of XBT.
Effectively the Bitcoin flow is managed by the Speculators, if the 17,000 XBT in the trust was traded unnoticed, there are some speculators out of pocket or early miners who have cashed out.


Train chasers?
1597  Economy / Speculation / Re: What if mining suddenly becomes unprofitable for most miners? on: September 27, 2013, 07:27:48 PM
Fud theory:

Mining becomes almost unprofitable. Nobody is investing in mining equipment but there is still a small gain to be made.
Somebody with deep enough pockets continues to buy equipment (although at a loss) just to drive and then keep the entire mining unprofitable for most miners at a certain loss even for themselves.
Eventually more miners quit and the mysterious organisation comes close to 51%.


I don't think large scale mining farms can operate effectively, since there are lots of miners with free electricity included in rent. That is easy to achieve by millions of individuals but not possible for an organization

That's why we have farmers who take their water by hand from the wells and use digging sticks and no farms with irrigation and harvesting machines.

Also i would love to see how many days you'll mange to stay in a rented house after the owner gets hit with a 1000$ bill.


With first gen ASICs, you would need 200 GH/s to use $1000 in electricity in a month.  That much hardware is not exactly within most hobbyist budgets.

With BFL Monarchs, you would need about 25.7 TH/s or roughly 42.8 cards to use $1000 in electricity in a month.

And a 4800 piece of "hashing" is within most rent a home hobbyist budget?

My theory was as simple as it gets , it will cost less and less money to make an actual attack for the 51%
.
Don't forget that my FUD theory doesn't mean hey we buy 10 millions of equipment and get the necessary hashrate from the first second they plug in.

They just have to buy equipment as other miners do (even receive profit in the first stages ) and invest invest until this is going to make a loss for every miner (including them) and at that point when people quit  >1 hour > 10 blocks and bitcoin is doomed. (which I hope not)

Also...
Ebay buys online payment firm Braintree for about $800m to strengthen its PayPal division's presence on mobile devices

How much will they pay to "weaken" the other payment methods??

And if they try to change the rules, we fork.
1598  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will The Bitcoin Investment Trust affect the price? on: September 27, 2013, 07:26:08 PM
Wow if you google "Bitcoin Investment Trust" in regular search you will see that like every news outlet on earth has picked this story up.

It's just too bad they are late to the party. Like by several months.

This is how people discover Bitcoin. First they think Bitcoin is a fad, then they see this EFT thing and say WTF is this why would anyone think of investing in it, it is crazy, cherishing the thought that it is just a stupid virtual cookie craze and they have already made good investment decisions. 

Then they may ask a few pertinent questions if the price goes up after they miss out and consider investing, at first some tread where no one has ever trod before and invest.

Meanwhile Barry Silbert doesn't buy any Bitcoin his investment has been priced in, he is just recouping his cost by selling the EFT, if there is demand (if and only when he has sold all 17,000 XBT worth of the trust,) he will look to sell shares and expand the XBT holdings. Then the party starts.

This process is the process that drives new coins in filling of your containers in your quantitative volume theory. You may know before anyone else knows what is happening, but news like this isn't news as such, it is news of a potential catalytic change in the available information. 


Oh, there will be another party alright. But by then most participants will be positioned incorrectly.

You mean like, the party that has already purchased over $2 million in bitcoins and announced they will be selling them soon might have to wait out a downturn before they see any interest?  Because some party sees the profit potential in selling off after the news has been absorbed (buyers have bought)?

In fact, the two parties might even be one and the same if they also have some personal bitcoin. Wink
1599  Economy / Speculation / Re: What if mining suddenly becomes unprofitable for most miners? on: September 27, 2013, 06:42:58 PM
Fud theory:

Mining becomes almost unprofitable. Nobody is investing in mining equipment but there is still a small gain to be made.
Somebody with deep enough pockets continues to buy equipment (although at a loss) just to drive and then keep the entire mining unprofitable for most miners at a certain loss even for themselves.
Eventually more miners quit and the mysterious organisation comes close to 51%.


I don't think large scale mining farms can operate effectively, since there are lots of miners with free electricity included in rent. That is easy to achieve by millions of individuals but not possible for an organization

That's why we have farmers who take their water by hand from the wells and use digging sticks and no farms with irrigation and harvesting machines.

Also i would love to see how many days you'll mange to stay in a rented house after the owner gets hit with a 1000$ bill.


With first gen ASICs, you would need 200 GH/s to use $1000 in electricity in a month.  That much hardware is not exactly within most hobbyist budgets.

With BFL Monarchs, you would need about 25.7 TH/s or roughly 42.8 cards to use $1000 in electricity in a month.
1600  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will The Bitcoin Investment Trust affect the price? on: September 27, 2013, 05:43:23 AM
So we have all those trusts and funds; and they will grow and new will arrive. They will accumulate bitcoins. So no bitcoins left for real use. No real economy. And .... bitcoins will be worth 0.

The calculation is off... the investors are buying bitcoin yes, but the investing fund sells the underlying asset (bitcoins) at a trickle to pay its costs.  The buyers are not buying bitcoins per se, they are buying an investment vehicle, and the fund buys bitcoin with most of the money that the investors give them.

Essentially these funds create faucets of bitcoin and increase the price of bitcoins in the process.  They pay for the privilege of doing this.

Which should help with volatility in rallies.

If we could get some consistent sell pressure it would be fantastic for lessening parabolic moves.
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