I got to thinking that not many people (myself included) actually realize how close we are to block reward halving.
The poll is when do you think people will wake up and realize bitcoins aren't going to be any easier to mine nor buy for that matter (at low prices)?
I don't get it. When the block reward halves, doesn't the difficulty decrease as well? So it will be just as easy to get bitcoins? If it is more difficult...do you think it will be more easy? Think about it... Doesn't the difficulty reflect the amount of computing power in use at the time? So if the block reward is halved, mining is no longer profitable, so less people mine and computing power goes down until difficulty reaches about half of what it was, where people will then start mining again because it's profitable? Perhaps this is not 50% of what it is now but I'd assume it's a significant decrease. Not necessary. At the current price level, the miners can continue mining with a comfortable profit margin. That is without considering the prospect of bitcoin becoming a widely used mechanism for financial transactions. Since, the difficulty did not substantially decrease even when the prices was hovering around $2.00, it is very unlikely we will see any substantial decrease after the reward is halved. Whether it will go substantially up or not, that is still uncertain. My feeling is, with the availability of ASICs, difficulty will go up in the future.
You think that halving the reward will not impact the amount of people mining? Block reward halving could also increase the exchange rate price especially since ASICS will be hitting the mining market around the same time before and after. Kind of like the perfect bull-ish storm for bitcoin. Just my opinion though... |
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What's with the stream of idiots getting suckered into "bets" and then claiming afterward it's "for the lulz"? We all know it's bullshit, so stop doing it. It's like playing hard catch and acting as if a palm smack didn't hurt. Of course it hurt. The kid who claims it doesn't, with teary eyes, is just going to get more crap.
We pick on the weak. Stop being weak.
Your mama is so fat that when she sits around the house, she sits AROUND the house. Reeses you got some issues bro. It is for the lulz. I won't cry nor complain about it when the deal is done. You're just butt hurt that someone beat you to the punch in making this deal. Get over it!  |
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I'm not surprised at all. I'm getting tired of jumping through your hoops, though.
Maged I trust because he is a mod.
arij I trust because he has OTC cred.
I don't give a shit who you trust and do not trust on this forum. I don't trust anyone from here, not one single person who I've met from this forum, not one.
So anyways, since arij was just chilling in #bitcoin and I made an annoucement that I was looking for an escrow, he chimed in and we made the deal.
Arij, if you want out of this nightmare, send the coins back to 12JREfAmTmFingQZazUyrdEciydF2YcQW9 or send them to Maged, who the fuck ever, I don't care.
I still owe you one btc for agreeing to do the escrow, please send that info to me on IRC or post it publicly, I'm washing my hands of this.
What hoops are you jumping through? The deal is for this upcoming Halloween. No one said you had to put the 50btc into escrow until then. You are jumping through your own hoops my friend. |
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I got to thinking that not many people (myself included) actually realize how close we are to block reward halving.
The poll is when do you think people will wake up and realize bitcoins aren't going to be any easier to mine nor buy for that matter (at low prices)?
I don't get it. When the block reward halves, doesn't the difficulty decrease as well? So it will be just as easy to get bitcoins? If it is more difficult...do you think it will be more easy? Think about it... |
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Sorry for the delay, but I had to quickly securely generate an address.
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1
Address for the escrow of jcpham and smoothie's futures contract, due 10/31/2012:
12zybdWYZxPmnXWHuTJWxgHGahDnQA9yJs
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: GnuPG v1.4.11 (MingW32)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=d83x
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
+1 thanks |
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Yeah I got a PM from that username. Not sure if I'm comfortable sending USD to a non-established escrow member. This person's account was created last august and has barely posted to this forum. Totally agree. I'm surprised that anything was sent before the escrow agent was agreed upon. Hence why I posted for volunteers.
How do I know that person isn't the same person as the person i'm dealing with and has a second account to "escrow" with?
Any volunteers who are active members of this forum?
I'm always happy to help. Otherwise, most of the major lenders also do escrow. I pick maged for the escrow. That will be fine. The member who has the 50btc might want to send it back to the owner. Thanks Maged! |
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I'm looking for any reputable forum volunteers to do an escrow for this "futures" contract.
Please post here to this thread.
Thank you!
Escrow has already been initiated. The BTC50 is already in the address below. All you have to do is set up the USD transfer. Clearly, you'll want to wait until October to actually send the money, though.  I'll periodically check that address, and of course, everyone else is welcome to as well. I agree to do the escrow. 50 BTC
1K2iCxLRTZStVTHK8cwoibXnRC5FJw1Sx
To be sent to smoothie on October 31st, 2012 once $550 payment is received.
and $550 forwarded to Jcpham.
Smoothie please contact me so we can arrange the payment of $550.
Have a nice day.
Yeah I got a PM from that username. Not sure if I'm comfortable sending USD to a non-established escrow member. This person's account was created last august and has barely posted to this forum. Hence why I posted for volunteers. How do I know that person isn't the same person as the person i'm dealing with and has a second account to "escrow" with? Any volunteers who are active members of this forum? |
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I think this fall/winter we will have another financial crisis...this could spark many things
its beginning now. I agree...i just don't believe it has fully unraveled. |
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I'm looking for any reputable forum volunteers to do an escrow for this "futures" contract.
Please post here to this thread.
Thank you!
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I'm not clear - does smoothie have the option to buy at $11 at the end of October, or the obligation to do so? i.e. can he elect to just pay the 25% and not take the coins without breaking terms of the contract?
Nope. I gotta buy 50 btc at $11 each. And likewise, jcpham has to sell them. Either party breaks it, I'm going to see if Maged thinks that's grounds for a scammer tag. No I think permabanned works better if that scenario ever happens. Yeah, because bans from this forum seem to really stick.  You have a point. I've already made my intentions clear. This entire deal for me is for entertainment value...whether I win or lose...i dont really care. But I do expect the other party to hold up their end in both cases. |
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If what Pirate said in that log that he can bring the price down to 1$ is true, then that means he has about 300,000 BTC at his disposal.
At 6% interest this would mean he needs to buy 18,000 BTC per week, or about 2500 BTC per day.
That's a signficant portion of the newly created coins per day.
If it carries on like this that alone will drive the price up.
Not if you buy it not on an exchange. I think most trades does actually not happen on any exchange, and thus have no influence on the price. Where can you buy 18k BTC per week outside of the major exchanges? It doesn't matter, you still drive up the price because you keep those coins from going to market. Even if you find some coins that would never sell at market but will sell to you the person they'd be selling to otherwise now has to go to market. Even if that person refuses to go to market they now either gobble up some coins that would have gone to market or they push some other person who cares less into the market. It isn't clear, but it's all connected. Demand is demand. Miners dont have to go anywhere but to the bitcoin client. Not all OTC bitcoins come from exchanges. |
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I'm not clear - does smoothie have the option to buy at $11 at the end of October, or the obligation to do so? i.e. can he elect to just pay the 25% and not take the coins without breaking terms of the contract?
Nope. I gotta buy 50 btc at $11 each. And likewise, jcpham has to sell them. Either party breaks it, I'm going to see if Maged thinks that's grounds for a scammer tag. No I think permabanned works better if that scenario ever happens. |
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You're assuming his scheme will last 4 months... Are people seriously expecting a 7% return on their investment per week? LOL
the fact is ,he is paying these rates at the moment and you are still free to walk at anytime with you coins + interest how long it can last is anyones guess ,i believe market manipulation is a major factor and as long as pirate has an enormous share of BTC then he can continue to apply the scheme for a while yet (that doesnt mean im saying he wont run with all the coin at some stage ,just not yet  ) If history is any guide then one of three things is likely to happen: 1) Interest decreases to a sustainable level as the market adjusts and reacts to the trader with all the coins. This is the best case scenario. 2) The market moves against the trader in a way the trader didn't anticipate, realising a large loss of customer bitcoins. Not everyone can be paid out. 3) The trader disappears / gets hacked / whatever and the customers lose their bitcoins. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. It's not really different this time. It's not a new paradigm where all the old rules no longer apply. Watching the market action with interest. +1 Pirates operation will have to end sooner rather than later. Just like Vladimir said once...you could in fact get all the bitcoins (21million) in three years with just starting with...i think it was 1000BTC and compound that for 3 years at 7.5%.... yeah yeah yeah his interest rate will go down soon...and will likely go down again 1, 2, or 3 months after that again. |
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I wanted to add the Pirate's worrying about the Bitcoin price in USD and trying to manipulate it is an indicator that he is not running a ponzi.
If he were running a ponzi the Bitcoin price in any fiat currency would be irrelevant to his operation. It would be just bitcoins in (deposits) and bitcoins out (withdrawals and interest). There would be no need to change into fiat.
If anything Pirate should welcome a high price. He could cash out more then of his percentage he would be taking out of the scheme. So by driving the price down he would actually be diminishing his profits.
That all depends. The price could always go down and he scoops up cheap coins and sells them when price rises.... Not all about going up in terms of profit. Sometimes the price needs to go down for one to enter a market and make a profit. |
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People panic buy to cover shorts, or if there's a shortage of an essential commodity. With Bitcoinica gone and bitcoins not an essential commodity it seems both requirements cannot be met.
If the price starts going exponential again there may be fever pitch buying like in June 2011, but it's a race to see who can buy and cash out before the bubble pops. The panic starts on the way down.
Ur referring to panic selling....not panic buying. |
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I'm not clear - does smoothie have the option to buy at $11 at the end of October, or the obligation to do so? i.e. can he elect to just pay the 25% and not take the coins without breaking terms of the contract?
Nope. I gotta buy 50 btc at $11 each. |
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It better be because I'm mining them!
I think so. The differences between bitcoin are not adverse. Basically there is more of them and the transactions are faster. I think that over time it will help keep mining in equilibrium some how. I just wish there were more services/sites for litecoin, at least something equivalent to bitcoincharts.com.
So ....more "services" to support speculation? LOL |
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Well in that case maybe you can clean up the forum, its a real shithole.
Only if I win.  |
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I think this fall/winter we will have another financial crisis...this could spark many things
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Dude if they haven't realized it already they're thicker than month old kfc porridge.
Price has a lot to do with my question. If there was a panic....price would not be where it is now... |
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