And this is why BTC makes a lousy currency. I purchased something a month ago that right now I could have bought 2. So sad.
This is actually only a short-term problem, because 1) If BTC keeps rising, merchants will simply reduce their prices to compensate. 2) If it doesn't keep rising, the whole thing won't be a problem because half the time you'll look back with satisfaction instead of regret. |
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Coiled spring.
We are now, again, a few notches above the exponential growth trendline that started in January. So it wouldn't be surprising to correct back near support at $50, but given the recent news it also wouldn't be surprising to continue spurting higher.
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Simple extrapolation of the very steady exponential growth trend since January.
That also means we pass $50 by late March. One down like clockwork, one to go! |
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This is another example, albeit a very tiny one, of how Bitcoin is anti-fragile. The troll manipulation hit made people more resistant to that kind of manipulation in the future.
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The price did go up. Maybe someone was just floating it as a test to see how much the market would move.
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Time's up. We've been trolled? Though he said he's using Coinlab. How long would it take for the numbers to show up?
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Troll post, manipulator...or not... Either way great entertainment and interesting precedent will be set in...
T-minus 3 minutes
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Wouldn't it be more effective if it was anonymous? I think announcing it will spook people from buying because they'd then expect a dump.
I'm assuming the poster didn't think posting something like that on reddit with 30 minutes notice would be believable enough to enough people, and once it happened it would be too late. However, if the millionaire does follow through, we'll surely have another huge seller posting the same thing just in time to unload coins. But as it stands, no precedent has been set. |
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That was simply awesome. Made my night.
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BTW these forums will be one of the first things to go down if bitcoin is made illegal.
Is there a torrent with all the content of these forums produced every few months? Losing all the knowledge here would be a tremendous blow. |
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It's just working off the recent faster-than-exponential growth spurt triggered by passing the all-time high at $32. Catching its breath, so to speak, before reverting to its exponential trendline to take the psychologically relevant $50 milestone. I'm guessing there's a 70% chance it will break $50 this week, and a 90% chance it will get there by the end of next week.
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Actually that's quite brilliant.
You could have an entire 'leaker' infrastructure that uses bitcoin - and they can sign messages with their key to prove that it was from 'them', whoever they are, without having to reveal their identity. You could have a complete social-like ranking based on the facts you disclose that you can tie to a particular whistleblower.
Stand aside Wikileaks, you could run your own site within tor or just throw stuff up on pastebin via several proxies/and tor. But, but, how would government survive this? |
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I've always been a massive Bitcoin bull, but if the standard for being a bull is now to expect greater than exponential growth, I guess that makes me a bear, what with me only expecting a straight exponential rise. We rose a little faster than that for a few days, now we may have to "correct" back to "merely" exponential growth. That puts us at $50 next week or so, and $100 in about six weeks. Is that too slow for y'all?
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I don't get it. Why has the price stalled? There seems to be only one whale creating the large walls and no competition. This isn't the stock market. There isn't going to be another cryptocurrency to wait for. There will be no QE for Bitcoin. I am really surprised that only one person seems to have locked the price down and there is nobody else with money that understands Bitcoin. Well, I for one will keep buying small amounts at this low price little by little. It really looks like Bitcoin will be the great wealth redistribution of the 21st Century.
It was going up even faster than exponential for a while (curving up even on a log chart), which suggests it was because present holders were doubling down, not solely from new users. Exponential growth is already insanely fast, so it shouldn't be puzzling if it "corrects" to the exponential trendline. |
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Still right on course. If we hit $50 this week it'll be a bit early. My guess is next week, or possibly the week after.  |
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Goals
In rough order of priority:
Create a self-regulating market for transaction fees between miners and merchants/users
Smoothly transition from the rules we currently have in place to the new rules; transactions from users running old versions of Bitcoin should get confirmed reasonably quickly under the new rules.
Make sure transaction spam is expensive for would-be spammers
Replace compiled-in constants with dynamic, market-determined values
Pre-emptive intervention as a design goal? This may be nitpicking, but I would have thought that in a market where "supply meets demand", transaction spam would no longer be relevant. Miners would tend to simply sign "winning bids for transactions" in order of profitability and the problem would sort itself out. (Supply and demand might be chaotic but it's not Voodoo.) If we want the network to be successful then what we want is not a specific outcome (high fees or low fees, big blocks or small blocks), but rather an efficient mechanism for price discovery. Nobody can calculate ahead of time how much hard drive space, bandwidth, and cpu time the miners, pool operators, and owners of full nodes are willing to devote to the network for a given amount of revenue. Likewise nobody can calculate the tradeoff between speed and fee percentage all the users of Bitcoin are willing to pay. Instead of attempting to calculate the incalculable and impose a central plan on the network, the best strategy is to design a market for transaction processing that will find the right answer on its own. +1 Interventionism will just add friction, brittleness, and headache. |
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All hard forks enable double spending. People will simply learn to check more carefully that there are no major competing forks when they accept transactions. Or more likely such monitoring will be incorporated into the software automatically and invisibly in a future version. So actually, the latest bug will result in not the opening but the closing up of attack vectors.
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