Guess which shitcoin pair is this:  -10% only in the last few months. I expect a further crash 15-20% in the coming months for $ against €. |
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The change from bear to bull market or vice versa in general is defined by the last big news. We had multiple bad news related to various fraudulent companies in the last year. If the price starts to climb up, this won't mean a true bull market. It will be what is called a disbelief rally, ending usually below the last ATH (but not necessarily). In order to reverse the trend for a true bull market, we need a lot of change in the public space. In the last cycle, there was euphoria about the institutional investors, Grayscale, Michael Saylor, Elon Musk, paypal, El Salvador, etc. Some of us even argued that this time will be different, and we will not see a bear market at all. I believed only 50% of that, so I cashed out a bit as a precaution. My experience shows that there always will come some FUD that would put an end to the bull market for awhile at least.
For the next bull market the average Joes must believe that this time "it will be different" and no more surpises will happen. A new euphoria generated by series of big good news. May be the exchanges will get safer, the fraudulent companies exposed, ETF approved, more countries accepting Bitcoin as a legal tender, Amazon accepting Bitcoin, and so on. This is how it works IMO. I'm not 100% sure that this will happen before 2025, but let's hope for the best. The good thing is that this is inevitable, so let's use the time for DCA. And just when everybody expects the next ATH, some unexpected bad news would again stop the bull market and the new bear market will begin.
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Hold long-term as soon as the media predicts the price of Bitcoin will rise and gain.
Or sell Bitcoin when it hears that the price is going down.
Or you can hold long-term if the price of Bitcoin drops suddenly.
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The famous twitter "crypto" guru Pomp used to shill lies about blockFi. What kind of idiot one has to be to trust such crooks with their savings? I guess too many. I don't know if we already hit the bottom but until the market is cleansed from such trash, there is no reason to expect some wild bull run. So I keep DCAing but won't risk any extreme investment. At least not yet. https://twitter.com/i/status/1597371512570675205 |
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The GBTC situation is starting to get interesting. There are rumors going around that they lost their coins after they tweeted that they couldn’t publish proof of holdings because of security issues… If GBTC lost their coins in the Genesis blowup things could get real interesting. That would lead to so many different regulatory and market scenarios that I’m anxious to see how it plays out. One thing I believe will be certain, in several months we’ll all be wishing for the kind of price stability we’re seeing now.
Source? |
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I just came by to say hi. It's been a busy 10 days for me with a business trip. I had made some plans during the last bull run and I started pursuing them. Firstly, I realized that no matter how rich I'm, I will need to have a job for various reasons. For example monthly expenses, retirement and so on. And my job is very good, it is like a hobby - part time with above the average salary and 5 months of paid vacation yearly. I entered Bitcoin world thanks to the gpu mining and soon after I became a strong hand Bitcoin hodler. At times being more than all in. I was confident when we fell to 3K in 2018 that I even took a bank loan to add some more corn to my stash. But now the mining is not profitable and I use my rigs only for heating. Since I continue buying Bitcoin, I decided to look for a better job in a bigger city which is one of the most beatiful cities in Europe btw. Luckily I was approved and I went to sign the part time contract for the first year. If everything is OK, I will sign a permanent contract next year. In the meantime I will keep my current job, which means some travel, but I'm okay with that. I transferred some cash before my travel, and each day I bought some. I didn't care what was the reason for the drop, I always buy first and then read. (FTX, what the heck is that, I don't care!) Every crash empties the exchanges and opens the door for the next massive bull run. In general I follow the DCA strategy, but if shits hit the fan, I buy more. For example, my ratio Bitcoin/total savings is currently 77% and I plan to reach 79% in the next 2 years. If shit gets bigger, I can get close to 90%. I have the firm belief that in the next bull run, no matter when exactly it will happen, the price should reach 150K. My SOMA prediction is 168K top of the next cycle. Anyway, I know that the good things won't last forever, so the usual stuff will happen after some time in ATHs territory - Chinese communist clonws will pannic and start spreading their FUD banning Bitcoin, putting in jail the users of VPN; Feds and EU bankers banning Bitcoin for its POW; the new harvest of fools trusting crooks with their savings will emerge again, new shitcoins pumps and so on. And then new bankrupts will come starting the next bear cycle with lows under 100K. But no matter what the top will be, I will sell some of my stash above 110K with a gradual percentage increase to have enough to buy a house in the new place. I can always buy a cheaper one or postpone the buying and use half of the fiat to rebuy back the same amount of Bitcoins if the price falls 50%. I developed a software that helps me a lot in all kinds of market scenarious. The trick is to re-finance my Bitcoin debt by DCAing with the new income no matter the price. Despite rebuyng higher in the last year, now I buy lower, i.e. I would have more bitcoins with my current fiat, although I spent some to buy a lot of stuff - computers, music gear, etc. And this is quite a new and pleasant experience for me  And as a priority, Bitcoin will always be first, compared to fiat. So I prefer increasing my stash than having some spectacular savings. With the exception of the fiat for the future house of course. P.S. I'm sorry for the JJG style post, but it won't happen again soon, I promise! And I had to patiently read 40+ pages backlog, so I'm excused  As someone mentioned, thanks to exphorizon etc. ignored spammers for making my task a bit easier. |
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Market bullrun starting but always remember that bullrun always harmful than bearmarket. Bull market indicates people to buy more and potentially they lose money what already they have . On the other hands bearmarket indicates people to not buying and have no potential lose money. So it would be wise to get angry by understanding the market conditions, that is, by understanding the bush.
And this year's award for the autistic WO post goes to... Elon, is that you? |
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The last two days have changed my mood from cautiously pessimistic to cautiously otpimistic, regarding the price in the next 3-6 months. I mean it looks a tiny bit more probable now to stay above 20K and even above 30K, than to return to the bottom scratch mode from the last months. The accumulation can't continue indefinitely without affecting the price, despite the heavy manipulation. This is a lesson we know Wall Street bears will learn the rusty pipe way. I think they've tasted just a little bit in the last 2 days of what is waiting for them. This chart says it all:  |
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Second day in a row!   |
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Ouch! That must hurt like a rusty pipe ...   |
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Honestly, I am not concerned about BTC/$. This battle was won years ago, the rest are details. What I'm concerned more is that I have to wait few years to see the price above €100K. We've seen this pattern many times in the last 30 years: Feds mess up the rates and $ printing=>financial crisis begins=>$/€ jumps exponentially to 1+=>financial crisis deepens to the point of total collapse=>$/€ drops to record low leverls like 0.6. (You can see the fiat shitcoins pump and dump 5y chart and make similar predictions here: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/USDEUR/) So, I'm afraid while our american friends celebrate $100K, we the europeans still see prices below the last € ATH. There is also a possibility that $/€ crashes in less than 2 years during the bear market. If the price BTC/$ is still around 20K, that would mean €12K. I know that $/€ may continue to rise for several months (tops) to 1.2+, but this will only worsen the crash afterwards. So, embrace for some weird volatility indirectly related to BTC. |
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The world is shocked by Elon's betrayal of Ukraine. Refusing Starlink in Crimea for the Ukrainians, accepting occupied territories as russian, etc. Honey Badger says to the shocked peeps: hold my beer! The same betrayal Elond tried to do to the Honey Badger. But he failed miserably gaining only laughs for his total lack of knowledge and understanding how Bitcoin works. The damage to shitcoiners however was severe. Nonetheless Elon rejoiced on the news of desperation and suicides because of his tweets. Now he is happy with the videos of killed women and children and wants this to continue. The power to influence people to their death is intoxicating for those with broken concsience like our asperger guy.
This is how asperger morons behave: first they pledge their friendship to you. And after they are convinced you trust them, they enjoy stabbing your back by robbing everything from you. But this is a textbook rule. They are mentally damaged people. They have feelings opposite the normal people have. It is like the cleptomania - they know their weakness and still continue doing it even to their closest friends and family. But since the bipolar aspergers have good mechanical memory, the world sees them as intelligent people and makes the mistake of forgiving them everything. So it is definitely a shocker for the most people to understand that someone can be a successful businessman/scientist/artist, etc. and at the same time to have the moral of Putler. So no wonder Putler and Elon became besties.
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Observing $19,433 & twiddling my thumbs during an expected, long term boring crab market. I wish bitcoin would break up hard or even in the opposite direction so I can gobble up loads of cheap coins (obviously preference is up). It’s just, the current price does nothing for any of us. There is no way I am selling a single satoshi at this price. I have bought a big % of what I sold in 2021 back already but I am sitting on a pile of fiat now, unwilling to buy more. It either dumps to make me buy more or I keep that fiat. So any way yeah, just willing bitcoin to do SOMETHING so I can do something positive  Feels like we’ve been stuck between $18,000 & $23,500 for ages. This is not unexpected though, the way it should go if we are repeating past cycles is, one more dump, an awful capitulation to about $12,000 to $14,000 which causes suicidal thoughts & more mindrust’s. Mainstream media says it’s over, everybody thinks we’re going to $0. This is what forms cycle bottoms, could happen between now & mid 2023. Then we start to slowly climb up, maybe reach the halving in mid 2024 at $30,000 to $40,000. Still boring but with a slight upwards trajectory we plod to the end of 2024. 2025 comes & we start to break upwards, memes & green dildos everywhere we see a new ATH. Couple of pullbacks mid 2025 but then we power to over $150,000 by the end of 2025 as the cycle top & then the cycle starts all over again.Are you ready?  I'm still not sure if 17.5K was the first bottom corresponding to 5.8K in 2018, or the second bottom 3.1K in late 2018. Anyway, we should have some dead cat bounces to 30K-ish, or even 40K-ish before the next big bull run. Hopefully the tradition will be kept and we see 100K+ in 2025. Meanwhile, I continue DCAing but very cautiously. I wouldn't risk too much buying right now, since another big crash is quite possible in the next 1-2 years. Unfortunately for me, I don't have the skills to sell high and buy low, so I actually buy higher than I've sold. I don't gamble of course, I sell only for what I need and plan to do. When I'm done, I use the new salary to replenish my stash albeit buying a bit higher most of the time. Because I don't want to gamble, I buy regularly with my fiat savings ignoring the current price movements. In general, I'm dissatisfied with my stash, since I missed a lot of opportunities to buy under 1K and sell something above 50K. So, I will have to wait another 2 years at least for prices above 100K to pursue my bigger goals - buying a real estate and installing photovoltaic panels with asic miners. Thus I will not only have the profit from my Bitcoin stash but a regular income which will allow me to quit my job if I want to. But for now, I will not only keep my current job, but I am in the process of getting a second job. Both can be combined easily, since they are not physically demanding. So, if the price is below 50K until 2025, I will probably get closer to the number which is needed for my plans. I have a small reserve, just in case another crash happens, and then for sure I will get to that number. So, even though I'm not a skilled trader, with the pre-meditated and pre-planned strategy, I am always theoretically in a win-win situation. But in the real life, my emotions can get in the way. I'm not talking about mindrusting during a crash, but rather mindrusting during a pump under 100K. For me, anything under 100K zone is a no go! Any mistake there and I can say good bye to all my plans and fail miserably. So, any gambling is out of question for me! |
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"Satoshi Nakamoto wrote about a new way to move value on the internet. Nakamoto — we still don’t know who she, he, or they were — didn’t have faith in the financial sector overseen by folks like us, sitting around this table" > Chairman of the SEC https://twitter.com/i/status/1577265614258720768 |
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Every new episode of House of Dragon getting better each time.
I love how things are getting more and more intense slowly and consistently.
Phenomenal show.
Bla bla bla bla. I'm utterly flabbergasted with so much nonsense. Rotten tomatoes audience score RoP: 38%. HoD: 84%. This only proves RoP is the better show. The same like 99% of the Earth population still can't appreciate enough Bitcoin. This doesn't make fiat better in any way. |
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Every new episode of House of Dragon getting better each time.
I love how things are getting more and more intense slowly and consistently.
Phenomenal show.
You are kidding, righT? This show so far a total disaster. To change the actors in the middle of the show and the king looking like Smeagol. Come on, this is ridiculous. The plot is totally predictable, dull and with the same disgusting scenes but complete lack of any action compared to GOT. On the other hand, LOTR Rings of power is fun to watch. The action is much more intense and complicated. Of course to compare Tolkien with the writer of GOT is like to compare a spaceship with a donkey cart. |
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Saylor's buying, so you can be sure the price absolutely will not sustain itself above $20k. We'll be below $19k next week as the world continues to offload this particularly useless risk asset in the midst of a financial crisis that only fiat can save us from. Hop on the USD lifeboat before it's too late.
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