It's pretty simple guys. David Johnson talked about companies wanting to enter billions of entries. I am personally looking for Factom to CONSERVATIVELY have 1 billion entries per month within one year from now. Let's say 10 entries per EC so that means 100,000,000 EC's burnt per month just from companies Factom Inc is already talking to. At .001 EC/Factoid, that means 100,000 Factoids burnt per month. That means, within one year, I believe Factoids will be a deflationary digital currency.
I believe trying to value Factoids based upon the equations you guys are throwing around is very short sighted. It would be like trying to value Microsoft before they signed that first IBM contract to provide them the DOS operating system. Bill Gates had identified an ENORMOUS and HIGHLY LUCRATIVE niche that needed filled and he had put together the team necessary to execute on that vision.
How do I value Factom and how am I investing here? I am investing as if we're dealing with Microsoft, circa 1980.
Why would you assume anything other than one entry per EC, which is the current situation? I think Factom is a great idea but I am not really sure to be honest how anybody is making money here, or why the Factoid cryptocoins issued at ICO have any real value. Once M3 starts, the price of those Factoids created by inflation (878K per year) can be priced at whatever "price" is necessary to make them generate the required number of ECs at 0.001 cent per EC to support the annual data rate. This "price" would burn all annual Factoid coins produced by inflation, and result in a sustainable steady state. But....why do Factoids issued at ICO have any value at all in this steady-state scenario? ICO Factoids are not needed for burning to create ECs - that is taken care of by the inflationary Factoids. Thus ICO Factoids are functionally useless. There is no reason other than a psychological one to tie the price of ICO Factoids we hold today to inflationary Factoids that will be created tomorrow and burned to create the necessary number of ECs to run the Factom project. I don't disagree with the Microsoft 1980 analogy - but holders of ICO Factoids aren't holding shares of Microsoft, they are holding 5 inch DOS floppy disks that will never be sold. Factom talks to single potential customers who ask if Factom could handle a billion EC's per day. That is what Tiana Laurence said and that is what David Johnston said as well. What we see now is just like a little pre-burner. The system is not even finished yet. And I don't believe a billion-demand will happen any time soon. But that is the potential. And you can do the math where the price would have to be when it's "just" about a billion EC's per months. And of course, the price now is 100% psychological. But nobody ever buys the presence. Everybody buys the future, potential or perspective - always. And which price of which project is objective? Where do you see "real value" at the moment? Because I don't know of any other project that is that far regarding real business like Factom. It's a kind of paradox. Because the burning-rate of Factoids leads into speculations about objective prices while nearly nobody seems to questioning why Bitcoin should be valued at $575, or ETH at the current price or ETC, Dash, Lisk or whatever. In my opinion, Factom has way more potential than all of these projects - maybe even including Bitcoin. |
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Snow: “The token supply can grow (if speculators drive up the price) until the price stabilizes. And the token supply can fall (if speculators drive the price down) until the price stabilizes. But in both cases, the stable price is when the value of the token matches the money real applications are spending to buy Entry Credits in order to put data into the protocol. That is because the 73K factoids generated each year naturally trends to the value of the factoids drained from the supply to write into the protocol. If people are spending 1 million dollars to put data into factom per year, then 73K factoids should be worth 1 million dollars.”
So ... it appears that the price of Factoids is directly related to the extent of their real-world use.
Once again, confusion over whether the inflation is 73K Factoids per year (as quoted here) or per month (as widely quoted elsewhere). Until somebody corrects me, I'm going to use an inflation rate of 73K Factoids per month = 876K Factoids per year. Sadly, this makes us all 12 times poorer than Paul would suggest once M3 kicks in. It's just a typo Pauls Snow made. Inflation is 10% of the initial supply per year which is about 73k Factoids per month. |
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Ok its time for some maths - I know a few posters have tried to figure this out but here is my stab. Feel free to point out any mistakes or inaccuracies, lets be constructive and suss this out. EC's will always be one tenth of a cent I believe. So at the current market rate of 2.80 dollars you'll have 2800 EC's per factoid. Now, I believe we started with 8-9 million (lets say 8.5) but obviously its the inflation rate that begins after M3 thats all important, and if I'm right thats set to be 73,000 factoids per months or roughly 880000 per year according to Brian. Now just to keep the number of factoids stable, we would need to use 880000x2800=2.5 billion entry credits per year, or almost 7 million per day. I think its reasonable to say that if you're using more than this, the price has to increase in order to get more entry credits from your factoids. If you use less, then the price must fall.
Now obviously its very early days and speculation is rife, but MalReynolds was estimating a quarter of a million EC's per day. For just that one company. Its plausible but by no means guaranteed that we could have forty companies doing a similar thing, in which case we would have a higher price. Of course its also plausible that some other companies (and there are a few although none are quite as far ahead as factom) will find cheaper ways of anchoring proof of existence into daddy bitcoin's distributed unhackable truth machine.
Thoughts?
You are echoing my own private musings except the number of companies would be 27 not 40 if you think about it. And I still don't know if a quarter million a day is accurate for the main company we've got. Somebody was suggesting federated servers could mod the EC / Factoid exchange rate from a fixed 0.001 cent - is this true? Very bad for Factoid investors if true.
Who knows what future data rates will be. Nobody - and it's the key to whether owning Factoids is the deal of a lifetime or only fools gold. There's enough data out there to make us crazy rich that NEEDS to be secured on a blockchain - for example, daily torrents of illegal HFT bids (google the book Flash Boys and the company Nanex). WILL it get secured? We'll see. Why would that be bad? |
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So this ICO has already raised 4500+ BTC this time. Plus the 2100 BTC from 2015. What happened to those raised in 2015? They've said what happened in the quote... ;-) |
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Seems safe with the Exodus-Wallet for Factom:
Nice find! So it looks like the wallet will be the cherry on top of the M2 cake. That's one of the interesting things about Factom ... except for M2 and M3, their pipeline of releases + announcements is almost invisible. The price of so many other cryptos is based more-or-less exclusively on anticipation of future events, and while that's somewhat the case with Factom (M2 + M3), there's the second factor of partnerships, a wallet, contracts, etc., that are in the pipeline for Factom but "invisible" due to NDAs. So with FCT, you're walking around the corner and suddenly: new wallet! Or: new partnership! / contract! A lot of other cryptos would be hyping such news half a year or a year in advance, but FCT keeps you on your toes ... It makes me wonder what we would see if we could look into Factom Inc's invisible pipeline. The only thing certain is that David Johnston + Paul Snow + Brian Deery light up when talking about things that are in the works, but which they can't publicly reveal. I couldn't find the spot but I recall Johnston beaming when talking ... around ... what the future holds for their relationship with the DHA, for example. Interesting times ahead ...  Absolutely agree! And that is something I personally focus on very much: How they speak about Factom. And it's obvious that there is a lot of what they can't speak about yet but they seem excited themselves about the progress. And since they're real professionals who already delivered a lot of proof for that and Factom's general potential in the business-world, I have no doubt that the next months and years won't be boring. |
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Seems safe with the Exodus-Wallet for Factom:  |
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Ok its time for some maths - I know a few posters have tried to figure this out but here is my stab. Feel free to point out any mistakes or inaccuracies, lets be constructive and suss this out. EC's will always be one tenth of a cent I believe. So at the current market rate of 2.80 dollars you'll have 2800 EC's per factoid. Now, I believe we started with 8-9 million (lets say 8.5) but obviously its the inflation rate that begins after M3 thats all important, and if I'm right thats set to be 73,000 factoids per months or roughly 880000 per year according to Brian. Now just to keep the number of factoids stable, we would need to use 880000x2800=2.5 billion entry credits per year, or almost 7 million per day. I think its reasonable to say that if you're using more than this, the price has to increase in order to get more entry credits from your factoids. If you use less, then the price must fall.
Now obviously its very early days and speculation is rife, but MalReynolds was estimating a quarter of a million EC's per day. For just that one company. Its plausible but by no means guaranteed that we could have forty companies doing a similar thing, in which case we would have a higher price. Of course its also plausible that some other companies (and there are a few although none are quite as far ahead as factom) will find cheaper ways of anchoring proof of existence into daddy bitcoin's distributed unhackable truth machine.
Thoughts?
Basically I agree. Just one thing: After M3 the price of EC will be chosen/fixed by the federated server if I understand it right. So it won't most likely be 1/10 cent. But it's good, because they have incentive (paid with Factoids) to adjust it in a way to hit the perfect relation between high usage and price. Regarding potential demand of companies: Tiana Laurence and also David Johnston talked, more between the lines, about potential customers who ask if Factom could handle billions of entries per day. I don't believe we will see that in the next few months but if I should make a bet if it will be about that high numbers somewhere in the future, I would say yes. What I expect, and I've said it before: Increasing number of Customers Increasing demand per customer And I believe we will see an explosion of EC-demand. And if I'm right, they (federated servers) could set the price for 1 EC to 1/100 of a cent and the Factoid-price still would have to shoot up. |
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BTW, where did u find this. It s not on exodus.io web yet.
Not sure where the image is from ... the only mention of Factom on Exodus's website is: "We are visiting the Factom offices today in Austin, TX. Insert rumor speculation here." https://www.exodus.io/releases/David Johnston said in the interview that there will be a really beautiful and user-friendly wallet. But if I understood it right, it's about a third party who builds it while the Factom-team is working on M2. And both should come out at the same time. I have to watch the interview again. I was so damn tired that I'm not sure about anything I've heard there. ;-) Yep, that's right. Johnston discusses it at 34:00: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUmYI7A5Pzg&t=34m0sExactly that's what I meant! Quote: "I can say that is coming, in a wonderful beautiful interface (...)" |
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It can a dumb question ,but I need to know ,how much each coin now cost?
Easy to get: I'll tell you guys a secret! If you click three times quickly at the word "ICO" you will find the current ANS price based on the BTC raised! Like this:   The current price is still low! (current is about 0.62 RMB/ANS, the expectation is about 1.5-2RMB/ANS) You still have the option to open your position at low cost! |
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BTW, where did u find this. It s not on exodus.io web yet.
Not sure where the image is from ... the only mention of Factom on Exodus's website is: "We are visiting the Factom offices today in Austin, TX. Insert rumor speculation here." https://www.exodus.io/releases/David Johnston said in the interview that there will be a really beautiful and user-friendly wallet. But if I understood it right, it's about a third party who builds it while the Factom-team is working on M2. And both should come out at the same time. I have to watch the interview again. I was so damn tired that I'm not sure about anything I've heard there. ;-) |
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Oh great! 4550 BTC is huge investment. really a great support by the community Yes, it is a huge project, may like waves/lisk, but folks ain't maniac on ICOs. DAO&WAVES were crazily overvalued ICOs. ANS is better than those 2 projects. BTW. Newbie account was created in 2011, very rare.  Most of all ICO's we've seen the last couple of months were rushed out projects. This is clearly not rushed out but very thought-out. |
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any proof the 4400btc is 'real investor' ? sometimes i think the bitcoin is only 'fake ico' , dev send the bitcoin to his ico address for make more people invest at rICO ?  Wouldn't make that much sense. The more Bitcoins flows into the ICO, the higher the price will be and the more cautious potential Investors will be. With other words: They wouldn't necessarily make it more attractive if they would pump it up. |
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I don't think they ve arranged this Q&A without any particular reason. They will be some major announcement there and we ll go stable over 50 by then. Maybe even 60. Nice flight.
I doubt that it's initiated by Factom. Most likely Tai Zen just asked and they agreed. But, of course, it will be interesting. Some other good signs: This is about 10 hours ago:
 Some minutes ago:
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Can anyone explain to me what is going to happen to the rest of the antshares that are not for sale in the ICO, are they being kept by the devs or what?
Also, is there an estimate on when the platform will launch? and will the tokens be tradeable at launch.
And is there a plan for antshares to be added to any specific exchanges? If so, which ones?
They've lined that out in the whitepaper: Approximately 10% of the ANS have been designated to early supporters of the Antshares, in exchange of 600,000 yuan of seed fund. 400,000 yuan of the seed fund was from several individual investors under an overall valuation of 5 Million. 200,000 yuan of the seed fund was from a VC, PreAngel, under an overall valuation of 10 Million. It is worth noting that individual investors have contributed voluntarily in full-time or part-time.
Approximately 17% of the ANS have been designated to participants of the ICO Phase I, which took place in October, 2015, in exchange of 2,100 bitcoins. About 1,200 bitcoins were from individual investors while 900 bitcoins from one institutional investor.
Approximately 23% of the ANS will be designated to participants of the ICO Phase II, which is about to be launched in August, 2016. This ICO has no pre-set price or cap, but it does come with a refund mechanism. See details in the ICO CrowdFunding Draft.
All the remaining 50% of the ANS will be hold by the Antshares team. They will be locked for 1 year via a smart contract after the Antshares MainNet launch. After the 1-year locking, these ANS will be allocated for supporting the long-term operations of the Antshares.
ANS designated to early supporters, ICO 1 participants and ICO 2 participants will be in place after the official launch of the MainNet of the Antshares Blockchain. The MainNet is expected to be online in the 4th quarter of 2016.
https://github.com/AntShares/AntShares/wiki/Whitepaper-1.1 |
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how much antshares will be ?
100,000,000 ANS - fix. No inflation. |
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Will you be listed on polo or btc38 from day 1? Maybe bter is decent, I think bittrex will definitely add you.
Personally I think polo is very good  , cannot ANNOUNCE ANS will be listed on polo from day 1 at this time  What I can say is this, there'll be Chinese-oriented exchanges, and there'll be decent overseas exchanges. Don't think that polo will miss Chinese ICO ) and you will be fast on it if you will have working client and block explorer! also your active development can easly tracked on github. I totally agree with this.. A huge ICO such as this and many supporters, I'm sure this will be listed in major trading crypto platform. Just hope it would not be long to join International exchanges if it will be at chinese exchange _ big exchange then we dont need poloniex anymore Bittrex would be happy if Poloniex wouldn't list Antshares, because the combination of a well funded and serious/professional project and China and chinese exchanges will ensure a good volume. But: Poloniex would be stupid not to list it. And I don't see any reason why not. They are professionals on Poloniex. No doubt that they will see the quality and the potential. |
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@MalReynolds: It's more stupid manipulation. The walls are moving. First buy-side and price rises. Then sell-wall and dumping. Whales are not always smart. If he really would want to buy he would do it more subtle.
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