So why has the somewhat bearish market of the last couple of months seen not only the highest difficulties on record, but also the largest difficulty jumps?
Difficulty keeps growing because we are in the middle of a technology change (GPU&FPGA -> ASIC) and mining with the new technology is still lucrative is the whole ASIC mining scene going to come tumbling down as people realize they have been scammed with effectively useless devices for which they will never recover their initial investment?
I don't know if it will be "tumbling down", but you can bet that many miners will have to shut their rigs off, and will never recover their initial investment in BTC. This already happened in both 2011 and 2012, so nothing new under the sun.. The mining market adjusts itself so mining is only marginally profitable, except during notable exceptions as we just had from February to now for the few owners of ASIC miners. Nevertheless, the limited window in which ASIC mining was wildly profitable is closing right now. |
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Bear with us, lucif!  |
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Yup, that's an update. At least kano is kindly giving us some useful info. They then stated they'd be sending (in July) mock up devices (with an internal RPi) for us to work with on cgminer We are very close to see if the first deadlines are met. |
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This same discussion is regularly brought up by some newbie who doesn't know/care about using the search function.
You simply do not ban cash because the bad guys like it. Nobody thinks about banning the USD because is the official black market currency. If the masses are so stupid to not understand that, maybe the world is not ready for monetary freedom.
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No they arent a scam guys..
Yes they are. This guy seems to like slandering companies with absolutely zero proof that his claims are justified. Which other company I've slandered? And would you care to make an escrowed bet with me? I say you will not see 50BTC per 10GH/s in the first year, as they misleadingly advertise to suck ignorant people in their scheme. |
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Bueno, la abstención suele andar por el 30% en las generales. No todos votamos.
Desgraciadamente la abstención solo favorece el bipartidismo. Correcto. Para quejarse, lo recomendable es votar nulo (por ejemplo, meter más de una papeleta en el sobre, de partidos diferentes). Eso si crees en el sistema de representación parlamentaria mal llamado democracia. |
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Unfortunately I'll have to close this forum account (lucif) soon along with this thread. These idiotic rulez with orange carma makes me more and more ignores just because its orange. There is no way to clean it even if I write usefull stuff.
Who cares about ignores? This is one of the most read threads, just keep on! |
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Decent website. Got any pictures of your stuff? Cause this looks like a lot of smoke and mirrors to me.
They are waiting on delivery of the stuff No problem for them, all the risk is on their customers. |
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Doing some quick calculations on when an 1st Generation ASIC (~100 Mhash/J) becomes unprofitable to run (aka marginal costs only, ignore all hardware). Assuming a decline to $30 for BTC and electricity at 0.15 per kWh difficulty would need to reach 440 million, roughly 17 times what it is now or 4 doublings, at present it seems to be doubling every 2 months so I'm predicting 6-8 months for first generation ASICs to be scrap metal.
Probably the smartest thing on here. Finally found someone that thinks like I do. As an ASIC Miner now, I have two options, mine and hoard and sell a year from now, or mine and sell now, and hope to "catch" the bottom to buy back in. Additionally, I have the problem of infrastructure costs, as I need real estate and a facility to host the miners. Alternatively, I could sell the miners now and get some coin up front, which again, I can either hoard for selling probably close to a year from now as the price starts to go back up, OR I can sell it now and hope to buy back in when the price bottoms out. Well, then we are at least three people on the same page. Impaler's analysis is 100% spot on, the mining bubble will have a profound impact on BTC/USD, and while ATM the profits for ASIC miners are still big, we are getting close to the moment in which many of them will have to shut their rigs off, while immediately selling the generated coins to recoup a fraction of their costs. |
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No they arent a scam guys..
Yes they are. |
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Decent website. Got any pictures of your stuff? Cause this looks like a lot of smoke and mirrors to me.
No stuff. |
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even as a bitcoin bull myself this looks like a trap to me. too much too fast and for what reason? is there some breaking news i missed?
here's a refreshing hypothesis: it's actual new money coming in due to 6 week old news (incubation time of new a bitcoiner (from first contact to first buy) is roughly 6 weeks) So I looked at 6 week old news and found: "liberty reserve busted". that is a refreshing hypotheses. i hope you are right. There's not been a lot of movement on the bid side of God's order book. It stayed at $11M for a while. |
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Agreed that changing plans "on the go" is a mistake 99% of the times. The fact is that we usually change our plans based on emotions (e.g. "what a rally, if I sell now I may kick myself if the price keeps rising!"), while originally those plans were established through cold and rational analysis.
It costed me a few lessons to learn that changing plans on the go is -EV
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There is a big difference in holding 300 or 600 coins, guys.
Sure, but if you are 30+ and hold more than 50k coins, you dont care much about speculating. You just lean back and wait a few years  Plus, the market is still too small to successfully daytrade with big volumes. Sure, doubling 300 coins is not a big deal. Doubling +1,000 coins its not so easy because of the illiquidity of the market, you really have to catch juicy points both to sell and to buy. In this market its not easy at all to buy and sell frequently significant amounts without being burnt by the mix of high fees+slippage. |
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If you think TA is BS then why you talk about candlestick patterns?
I also think is BS but I enjoying talking about it. $105 should be a crucial point regarding a trend reversal as I wrote a few posts ago, for the reasons Vladimir exposed. This is fun to analyze and to comment. But to base all your financial decisions on TA, especially in such a small market as per BTC, its nonsense. |
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Just read all five pages of this thread. I feel stunned at some of the comments. Those people are exactly why the denial --> fear --> capitulation phenomenon exist, and are a major source of profit for profitable traders.
$50 won't be the bottom. However, how big the $50 bull trap is will influence how hard the drop sub-$50 is. People who think this is a scare tactic are simply not thinking rationally, although it's almost disadvantageous to try to change people's thinking around since it requires people making mistakes in order to make money in a zero-sum system.
you guys talking about 50ies... but we are leaving double digits for good...  Based on what? This seems to me a trap, with a few positive signs for the bulls (rally on volume, etc.), but in no way is the confirmation of a trend reversal. The speculative mania phase is definitely dying (for now), so "back to normal" means that huge spikes are followed by big correction, and big crashes are followed by huge bounces. Everything is playing pretty much as expected, I think that even the biggest bears expected huge bounces on the way down. And we are definitely on a way down since April, 10th. |
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I can't imagine early adopters trying to bring the price back down though and if they already didn't sell, why do so now?
Well, because as an early adopter I might hold 50,000 coins in my cold wallet and like to play rollercoaster with about 10,000 coins - play money. I think you are vastly overestimating the amount of people holding huge amounts such as 50,000 coins. Most of early adopters sold A LOT in 2011. And many sold out for good. So, I think there is only a handful of individuals holding such amounts. Plus, I think there is also quite an overestimation on the amount of "early miners" holding 10s of k's of coins. Again, that was true in 2011, not so much now. In my opinion there are more "Winklevosses" type of investors that hold massive amount of coins, bought in the market, than early miners. Just check the thread in this subforum, where addresses with massive funds are listed: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=249718.0You will see that there are almost no "newly generated coins" in those addresses (if there are at all, I didn't see any but I didn't research thoroughly). Most of those coins come from purchases, either from individuals, or from MtGox controlled wallets. Plus, an amazing amount of coins come from the "SR mixer", which is something a miner doesn't need to use... Your freshly generated coins go straight to a fresh address, so they are pretty much untraceable (in fact mining is one of the best ways to have BTC's anonymously), while bought coins leave a trace (Gox knows who you are, the "early adopter" that sold you 20,000 coins probably too, etc.) |
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Update on instructions: looks like this google form should be used to create refund requests. I have put in a refund request for my order. today? |
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This "bitcoin revolution" stuff doesn't add anything. Like other web/mobile payment systems, you can send/receive money virtually instantly to an electronic address. Yes, it's not tied to a government -- but we're talking about utility here, not political philosophy and idealism.
This you call "political philosophy and idealism" is in reality a very big practical problem solver for a big part of the world. I will give you two examples based on my very own personal experience: 1) Have you ever tried to do business with Argentina? I've been doing for many years, with big and reputable companies (but currently in a "fight" with C. Kirchner), until they couldn't pay us any more in USD because of internal monetary policy. The situation got so absurd that I was offered to flight to Buenos Aires to pick up a suitcase full of useless pesos. Obviously I declined as that is a dangerous game, I took quite a big loss and I moved on, not doing any more business with that country. That problem persists and is very common in my industry, Argentina is "cut out". BTC has the potential to solve that problem. 2) One of my best friend moved to a South American country, and there are very big barriers to get a residence permit (the process is lengthy and the bureocracy messy), and without resident permit you can't have bank accounts that allow international wires, both incoming and outgoing. BTC is actually solving that problem, besides of the exchange rate risk (which is indeed big at this moment). Plus, I think that I don't have to remind you what happened in Cyprus, and the amount of money taxpayers from most of Europe and the US had to pay from their own pockets to bail out "too big to fail" banks. I guess you also know that Southern Europe countries are in the middle now of a deep financial crisis triggered again but a disastrous monetary policy. So, I understand how for a lot of US and generally speaking "first world" folks the "decentralized, trust-free" characteristic of BTC is only "ideological", but the reality is it is not: millions of people are becoming poorer because of the IMF, FED or ECB monetary policies. TL;DR -> do not underestimate the practical need for monetary freedom. You definitely bring up some interesting points. My feeling is that bitcoin is too illiquid and volatile at this point to serve these purposes on scales worth mentioning, though I agree, the potential is there. Indeed, people are becoming perpetually poorer because of destructive monetary policy, but that doesn't address what I was saying. My frustration is with the tendency to speak of bitcoin's potential as already having been fulfilled -- and that by its potential alone, it is useful. This forum is awash with that sentiment. It's funny, but frustrating, when people ignore everything you say and reply, "but, bitcoin revolution!" or something similar. The early discussion re utility is a good example of how irrelevant that can be (and how cult-like it comes off). Completely agree on the "potential" part. Bitcoin is revolutionary indeed, but its potential its still unrealized. Going back at the two personal examples I gave you in my last posts: the company with which I did business in Argentina in the past, would never pay me in BTC at this stage. The process to buy significant amounts of BTC its still too lengthy, complicated and shady, especially for a big company - the volatility risk is also too big ATM. As absurd as it sounds, right now the only solution would be the one I was proposed, which was to fly to Argentina to pick up a suitcase full of pesos (an alternative would be dollars bought in the black market, but that is too risky and thus out of the question for a legit company trying to transfer a big amount of $). On the contrary my friend in South America is using BTC to move some money back and forth, but still he couldn't make his relatives to understand how to safely "cash out" without my help. Making a long story short, the potential is all there but the current infrastructure its not good enough to realize that potential. Bitcoin *can* be a revolution indeed, but it still has a long way to go. What I do not agree with is with the statement that BTC being decentralized and trust-free is only "ideological" stuff with no utility. No sir, not at all. Those characteristics has the potential to solve very real, daily problems for millions of people on the planet. |
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My suspicion :  There are a lot of arguments to disprove that as well though. We'll see next week. If we break $105 for good picture starts to get quite bullish, at least short term. $120 could be reached easily if $105 is broken. |
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