Well, I think its about time to sell.

LOL, something very strong indeed, I could use a little of that

No, I didn't and I do not plan to do. Next thing coming out from Gox will be BTC

No. The minimum SD bet is bigger than 5340 satoshis.

I sold part of my coins. I have two very different approaches: I have a trading position (that now is 95% fiat), plus some BTC in which I invested many months ago (which are in a paper wallet and won't be moving for at least a couple of years).

Yo no, eso te lo aseguro.

Investors are less akin to undertake a big risk, so they ideally buy when the price is stable and plan to hold for X years until a certain goal is reached. I will give you a practical example: I invested in Bitcoin when it was at around $13, which was a price that held for a long time. Now there are no investors looking to spend money on Bitcoin, at least no "serious" investors, because they know the price is currently overvalued. As soon as Bitcoin becomes again a good investment (<$50) more money is expected to be thrown at Bitcoin.

Speculators are more gamblers, they are into high-risk, quick-profit trades, and if the gamble go wrong, they just close their position ASAP - wash, rinse and repeat.

The three of them were done in June, while there was no "USD hiatus", but it was still a moment where people wrote in this forum about withdrawals taking MONTHS to clear, especially SEPA ones. As I said, not my experience at all: 3 separate and significant withdrawals cleared in 2/3 days (SEPA) in June, just as fast (or even faster I'd say) that pre-bubble.

I need to say this because I've been reading so much FUD about Gox since April that I really don't know if I'm "the lucky one", or is just that there are thousands of customers of Gox (let do not forget they have tens of k's of customers ATM) that have no problems so they just stay quite, while the few that have delays obviously complain bitterly on this board.

Then I read about people saying that "as soon as a big customer ask for a withdrawal Gox will be crumble", and this doesn't seem the case at all. Since April millions of $ have flown out of Gox without any problems, in fact all the reports for "delayed withdrawals" I see in here are for smallish amounts.

BTW: I'm fully verified, including notarized docs.

The only way to calculate the value of Bitcoin is by supply+demand - like for the vast majority of other commodities. In this moment the demand driven by the hope for the price to be higher exceeds by a lot the demand of Bitcoin for other uses (including investment, Darknet purchase, international transfers of value, etc.).

Considering that the initial crash was very deep and fast, while the following deflation is being slower, I'd also bet for a slow deflation.

I like to think the bottom will be on September/October, but I don't discard at all a slower decline that lasts more. Also because from September to December we will see a huge increase in hashrate, ROI will be very difficult for miners, and a negative cycle can be triggered if prices are down, so the miners rush to sell to recoup their investments before the price goes down further, which obviously brings the price down, wash rinse and repeat...

Many people do not realize that the game changed with ASICs, the majority of hash rate won't be in the hands of tens of k's of amateurs miners like when mining was done with CPUs or GPUs, now the hashrate will be concentrated among few biggish "mining startups" that will function as a business as they have to pay for significant fiat costs - those businesses cannot mine at a loss while hoarding the coins hoping for the price to go up, so I expect some continuous selling throughout the year.

About ATH: breaking it in one year and a half seems too optimist to me. I won't be surprised if the next bubble doesn't happen for 2/3 more years. Next halving could be a nice point for it, it's the kind of "tipping point" where the miners get nervous and start hoarding in the fear they won't be able to cover costs of their operations, which is something that effectively cripples supply and triggers a coin shortage in the market.

We will see...

So, what we had in 2011 wasn't a bubble neither?

Yes it was, and this one is a bubble too, Bitcoin price went up because people hoped it would go higher, and a speculative mania cycle was triggered when we broke ATH in March. As soon as the price started to go down, people sells and the price goes down even further, which is the classic bubble deflation process.

Speculation has always drove Bitcoin price, its an asset very sensitive to speculation by very design. But during bubble phases, speculation goes nuts, clearly overshadowing the demand of long to mid term investors and "users" (mostly Silk Road and ASIC miners buying hardware). When the peak is reached, speculators to their thing, selling to realize profits or cut losses. And as BTC is 99% speculation, there you have the bubble deflating until final capitulation is reached, and the cycle starts over.

I know very well the USA is not a culturally homogenous country, while I also know very well that the parts of the world where kids grow up around guns are those with a higher ration of violent murders per inhabitant.

Its kinda ironic that "US libertarians" despise the Government, which strength resides precisely on the fact that eventually you will be forced to follow its laws at gunpoint, while those same "libertarians" praise those same guns like they are a symbol of individual freedoms. A blatant example of flawed logic.

Freedom resides in individual respecting each other, and that needs to be taught, not enforced. And this is why I wrote "banning is not the answer". If you want to have social peace, you just do not fight violence in society with more violence, you fight it with education towards respect to human life. BTW, did you know that police in Germany only fired 85 bullets in all 2011, and killed only 6 people? That's an 80 million country, so its roughly 1 bullet fired by police per million inhabitants in a whole year. Why? They haven't got the need to fire more, most of the criminals are unarmed because they just do not need the guns. There is a deeper respect for human life, and while Germany is a country where there are 30 firearms per 100 habitants (which is very high for Europe standards), the vast majority of people never sees or touches one in their whole life.

You have a very big problem in the US, I don't deny that: but arming more people will just make it worse. I guess you "libertarians" should know that there is no "good" or "bad" people, no "sane" or "crazy" folks - people is normal until the moment they aren't, your own mind could flip out at a certain point because of external circumstances, and if you have a gun handy and you know how to use its just so much likely that you will end up using it.

I guess that living in a country where the average burglar has a gun and its mentally ready to fight for his life doesn't help at all. Well, maybe there is some work to be done to address THAT, instead of making it easier for criminals to arm themselves.

We are in a downtrend, bubble deflation, so you should expect the price to go down.

You are spamming VERY hard since day 1. Your first 30 posts about MHashes vs. KHashes are so depressing I was about to kill myself when I visited your post history. So many posts about a matter you didn't understand and about you could have learnt using google + the search button of this forum.

Friendly advice: write MUCH less and read MUCH more. The fact it took you +30 posts to reach the 4 h logged required to be able to post outside the newbie area is very telling. In half of your lengthy posts you make points which are simply wrong, because they are about matters you obviously don't know well. The other half are about SantaCoin, SoccerCoin or CatholicCoin (I won't even comment on those).

Use Google man. Use the search. Try to post a max. number of posts per day, otherwise your ignore button will be glowing soon.

What statistics? I know for sure the number of violent deaths per year in the country where I live is less than 1 per each 100,000 habitants, and as much as half of them are domestic husband-wive disputes (passional crimes).

In most of Europe you would NEVER fear for your kid to be killed in the streets by a criminal or a psycho.

True, but we went through what were supposed to be "crucial" support points ($88 and $79) very easily and very quickly.

This makes me expect at least 1/2 quite big and long bounces before the bottom, with moments where things slow down for as much as a couple of weeks. This need to cool off and sentiment to build.

This last bounce at $66 looks uncertain, I think it will be interesting to see if the price goes again above the 200 day EMA (which is at $80ish) with decent volume, that could trigger an epic trap.

The amount of violent deaths of any type in developed countries where no firearms are easily at hand for a large amount of the population are ridiculous compared to those of the US.

Obviously crime exists in similar ratios, but its just less violent, there are less violent deaths per habitant. Thieves, burglars, and other "property criminals" (which are 99% of the criminals) are rarely armed (if at all), which makes a huge a difference. We also have plenty of people that goes nuts for no apparent reason, but its just they do not even know how to use or where to find a gun, and any other weapon is simply uneffective and definitely not as cool as an "assault rifle" when planning to cause as much death as possible.

The statement that school would be safer if teachers carried guns is complete madness, that is the kind of world you want your kids to grow up? The example of Israel speaks pretty much for itself, that's a fucking war zone, is to Israel to what you compare your country to?

You don't have to be a genius to realize that if you have firearms at hand, and they form part of your life, its more likely for you to use one of them at some point... While the thought wouldn't even cross your mind if you never would have seen one closely in your life. And no, a knife is something completely different, you use knifes every day in your kitchen, they have plenty of uses, while a handgun only use is to kill someone. The approach when dealing with both "tools" is completely different, in both a practical and philosophical way.

Banning is never an answer, violence is something that is rotten in culture and that needs to be eradicated by the society as a whole, but for sure the gun-loving fucktards that defend that more guns = less deaths are not helping at all.

Any news regarding pending refunds?

The cold hard fact is that in countries where guns are not easily purchasable (ie most of Europe) gun related deaths are negligible.

For the record Gox worked consistently well for me, done 3 withdrawals of non-negligible amounts and I got the money in my bank in 2/3 days. SEPA transfers, Europe customer.