Allow me to praise myself, I did not have to shut down a single gear while temps here been ranging between 104F to 116.6F aka 40c to 47c even at night, many schools and businesses did shut down this week because of this, my gears on the other hand which are mostly S9s are mining non-stop, I suppose I got some pretty bad-ass cooling going on.

Ok let's just pretend there are enough previous factories ready to host nearly a million mining gear.


I have a strong feeling you are wrong, based on this code which enforces the difficulty adjustment limit


It means the difficulty adjustment can be anything equals or less then 75% to the downside.

So for simplicity, a 10T difficulty can change to any number between 2.5 and 40, unless i am reading code wrong which is unlikely but i got old anyway.

You speak for yourself I suppose, then the right term should be "I" and not "WE", bitcoin mining is a free market, there is no patent to mining, if you can make/buy the mining gear and able to run it, go ahead, your comment sounds so racist to be honest, you did not point a single disadvantage of those miners owned by the Chinese, will it better if the same hash power was controlled by the Americans or the British or any other nation?

اعدادات الوفر كلوك من اعدادات الفيرم وير وليس البرنامج, يمكن تغير الاعدادات من البرنامج ان كان لديك الفيرم وير متبت على الجهاز, انسى امر البرنامج الان فقط ركز على الفيرم وير.

Well, if you throw enough money at it, it could happen sooner, but this assumes that every future mining farm has to start building now for that to happen which isn't happening, as far as I know, we are talking about re-locating a few hundred thousands of mining gears, building the infrastructure for that is going to take a lot of money and time.

My guess is that most new mining farms outside of China will be owned by the Chinese themselves, judging by the gear prices and the current supply, there does not seem to be a lot of panic, it seems like most miners are still holding on to their gears and probably are already searching for a new home.

The problem is, it isn't just a matter of moving to a country with a cheap power rate, most of those countries are corrupted or don't have enough power, to begin with, the rest can be either hard to move to due to regulation and shit or are not so crypto-friendly, with all the carbon footprint b.s that has been going on, moving these gears won't be easy and I am pretty positive that the majority of hashrate that left will not show up till next year at best.

The only expectation would be BTC going to 100k-200k, demand on mining gears rises everywhere and those many gears get divided between small miners into small batches rather than whales shifting their operations, but as it stands right now, most of those gears are "homeless".

So after 2 years since the release of this gear, how is it holding? Would appreciate everyone's experience with the M20s and whether they are as robust as the m21s.   

Those 3 pools represent close to 40% of the total hashrate which is a fact judging by the number of blocks they find, so I agree, it still is a matter of accuracy, but the fact is, the numbers in China are more likely to be more than shown in the study, simply because there are many large farms in China that mine solo, while most other non-chinese miners are mid-range operations who mine to pools, so if the study shows 70% at any given time, it's probably 80% or so.



Are you sure the maximum is 25%? I thought the new difficulty can't fall below 25% of the previous, since the current diff is 19.9T, the lowest it can go to would be 4.97T, but nothing stops it from going down 25% or 50%, correct me if I am wrong.



If the question is just how much and not "when", then it really all depends on the price of bitcoin, given that the Chinese have an average of 2-3 cents per KhW ( accounting for the hydro season) it will be close to impossible for these gears to be profitable elsewhere, which means many many gears won't find a new home at current prices.

If the price spikes and we are able to create a brand new equilibrium, then all gears will come back online elsewhere, but for that to happen 6-7 cents running 90w/th gears have to be profitable at full blast and not just the current difficulty, and quite honestly I don't see that happening anytime soon.

If it is a question of "when" can that happen, it will take a very long time, maybe next year at best, I see people talk about the fact that all gears in China can run on a 4-6GW which relatively is a small number, but they fail to understand that building infrastructure for such capacity is a huge thing which can't be achieved in a few months.

Just so you know there is no "seize" in this, not sure what the news is saying but the truth of the matter is I have helped a few clients order a few hundred miners from China in the past few days and some of the gears have already passed China borders with no issue, the Chinese government told the miners in some regions to stop mining, so mining is "illegal" but owning/selling/buying Asic gears is NOT, so if the government is going to seize anything (which I doubt) it will be a small percentage of gamblers who still mine in "secret", but that is just a small number of miners which doesn't make a huge difference.


Here is one > https://cbeci.org/mining_map

There is honestly a ton of evidence that suggests China "had" more than 50% of the hashrate, it's all over the place you don't even need to research it, after this mess is over, the numbers will change but we don't know to what extent, it will take some time for the data to be accurate again.


On a side but related note, we are about to have one of the largest difficulty drops in Bitcoin's history.

Nop, I am referring to the actual mining gears running in china, nothing to do with the pools, although some of the studies conducted on this matter such as the one by Cambridge uses pool data, but not the origin of the pool, they rather request actual traffic based on IP-address by region from the largest pools and that study shows a lot more than 50% of the hashrate comes from gears located in China.

اكتب في قووقل مثلا
Bitcoin total hashrate

ستجد الكتير من المواقع التي تعطيك هده البيانات بعضها على شكل تشارت او رسم بياني وبعضها يكتب الرقم فقط..ستلاحظ اختلاف طفيف في الارقام لاسباب يطول شرحها ولكن بالمجمل الارقام دقيقة.

These two statements contradict each other because variance is a risk unless it's measured against infinity, your theory is only valid if I could mine to infinity, at which, even solo mining would yield the same results, but we know that:

1- The mining gear will die
2- The mining pool might close
3- The profitability drops and miners are forced to shut down.

And probably a few more hundreds of things that could wrong.

IF (that's a big IF) a pool has enough hashrate which in theory is capable of reducing the variance close to zero, then ya, other than that, it still is a risk, the risk with smaller pools is even greater, the mining gear might die before earning a single sat, whereby mining to a small PPS pool with no variance you are guaranteed to make a profit unless that pool is broke due to lack of funds, but then you only lose 24 hours (or whatever the payout threshold is) of mining, whereby in PPLNS pools you can lose anything from 1 day to 11 months and your gear might very well break before the pool hit a block, if that does not qualify as "risk" to you then I can't convince you otherwise.

Thanks El duderino_ for the fun game.


My take on this cycle that it's not over and what we are in now is a large extended bear trap that will take months to end.



This is my favorite long-term chart, for nearly a decade bitcoin has been within this channel, it spends about 70% of that time in the green area and, maybe 20% in the yellow, and just about 10% in the red zone.

Since I believe this bear trap will last longer and given that I'd bet on BTC price to be within the green channel any given day since it has a lot more chances than being elsewhere, so my guess is Dec will be the month when we start heading to the last ATH, and we will probably be at the 50k range, so I'll take box 238 at of price $54,666.

Not sure what's your source for this information but it's actually wrong, the fact is, China does have more than 50% of the total hashrate, in 2020 china had over 70% of the hashrate, it has probably declined since then and I have not looked into it for a while but I am pretty positive that even at this stage with all the "mining ban" going on China is still "very easily" controls more than 50% of the hashrate.

تقوم بتنزيل الفيرم وير والذهاب الى صفحة upgrade في المانير نفسها وتقوم برفع الملف كما هوا وبعد دقيقة ونصف تقريبا سوف يكون جاهز للعمل, طبعا ان كنت تسخدم فيرم وير من بتماين باصدار جديد فلن تتمكن من عمل ذلك وسيكون عليك استعمال  Sdcard (كل شي موضع في موقع اوسم ماينر نفسه اما واجتهك صعوبة لاتتردد في السؤال)

الفيرم وير سيأخد عمولته عبر التعدين لحسابه في فترات متقطعة, اي انه يأخد مثلا 30 ثانية في كل نصف ساعة او شي من هدا القبيل, وسيكون الاجمالي اما 2% او 3% من الوقت, الفرق بين الاصدارين هوا ان برنامج اسوم ماينر عبارة عن برنامج مراقبة وادارة اجهزة تعدين وهوا ممتاز جدا ولكنه ليس مجاني يعني انه عليك ان تشتري رخصة لكل جهاز, الا في حال قمت باستعمال اصدار ال 3% فسوف تتمكن من اضافة الجهاز على برنامج المراقبة مجانا, في حال كان برنامج المراقبة نفسه لايهمك ( وانا انصح به في حال كان لديك عدد كبير من الاجهزة فقط) فالافضل ان تستخدم اصدار 2%.

انت تقوم بمقارنة شركة سيارات المانية او يابانية بشركة صينية رخيصة اخر همها سمعتها او جودة اجهزتها, ولك خير دليل في معدل اعطال موديلات ال 17 حيت وصل المعدل الى 35% في اقل من 6 اشهر وهدا حسب تقارير مزارع الصين الضخمة والشركة لم تنكر هدا بل اقرت به.

كلامك منطقي, ونفس الشي يحدث في كروت الشاشة او معالجات انتل و AMD ولكن شركة Bitmain لايمكن مقارنتها باي شكل من الاشكال بهده الشركات,  وبناء على ذلك فأنا لا اعتقد انهم تركو مجال 15% او ماشابه وعلى الاغلب ان السرعة الافتراضية هي الاقرب للسرعة القصوى.

ومع ذلك, يضل الفيصل لكثير من الناس هوا درجة الحرارة, ففي حال انك تمكنت من رفع هاش ريت ال S9 الى 18 تيرا او حتى 20 تيرا بدون ان تتجاوز حرارة 90-95 فالكثير من الناس يرا ان هدا مقبول نسبيا, المشكلة هي في معظم المزارع الصغيرة والتي تستخدم تبريد الهواء الافتراضي هدا الامر صعب جدا, ربما تتحصل على تيرا او تيرا ونصف زيادة ولكن لا اعتقد انه يمكن الحصول على اكثر منها بدون ارتفاع حرارة الاجهزة.

اما عن وجهة نظري فأنا ضد كسر السرعة بالمجمل, بل بالعكس تماما فأنا في فصل الصيف اقوم بعمل underclock واستغني على حوالي تيرا هاش لكل جهاز لاحافظ عليهم في حرارة جيدة واداء جيد, ولكن لكل شخص الحرية في التصرف كما يراه مناسب ولكن وجهة نظري هي اني لست مستعد لخسارة 14 تيرا للحصول على 2 تيرا حتى وان كانت نسبة حدوث العطل 1%.

اقترح عليك فيرم وير اوسم ماينر https://www.awesomeminer.com/antminerfirmware

يوجد اصدارين واحد بعمولة 2% والاخر 3%, ان لم تفهم الفرق بينهم سوف اقوم بشرحه لك.

I have checked Viabtc and Poolin, both don't mention anything about transactions accelerator in any shape or form in their ToS, it looks like they think it isn't a big deal and they can get away with it and nobody would complain about it.

Anyway, it's not like I am NOT expecting a 50% more profit if these pools stop including low fee transactions, I just think that it's very unethical to affect the miners' revenue by profiting from a service which you don't share any of its profit with the miners who are once providing them with the tools needed to conduct such business.

I can't speak for all miners but I am certain that most don't know about the service in the first place or fail to understand that it actually reduces their revenue, maybe stealing isn't the best word to describe this behavior, and those pools probably have something buried in their ToS to keep them safe, but you get the point.

For this particular gear, I can see the chips are still in place, was only the heatsinks that went, of course, I am not 100% sure if chips are not damaged since the gear isn't running now, but the kernel logs passed the chip count for all three hash boards, and before starting to mine it shows over-temp error in the kernel log and shuts down, which most likely indicates that all chips are fine, they just (obviously) can't run when their heatsinks are in a plastic bag.

The thing is most miners do NOT know about this, or they have no idea that this actually affects their profit, and since nobody has complained about it, the pools think it's okay to do it.


Transactions get stuck for so many reasons, some wallets miscalculate ( or rather misestimate) the best fees to be paid, transactions with higher fees could show up in a few seconds right after your transaction is broadcasted, in many cases, you pay enough fee to be included in say 1-6 blocks, suddenly BTC price fells, people rush to send their coins to DEXes and wala, your transaction gets pushed down to the bottom of the list.

However, I do agree that it isn't something that happens in every block, maybe no even every day, but it does happen, profit loss is profit loss, whether it is 1$ or $1000.


I think we can get a rough estimate by extracting transactions with very low fees that get accepted in blocks full of other transactions with a lot higher fees or when there have been higher fees transactions pending.

Example:

Block 111111 contains 20 transactions paying 5< sats, all other transactions paid 50 sats, and the mempool at that time had 100,000 pending transactions with 50> sats, those 20 transactions can be "assumed" accelerated, and the minimum loss of miners would be :

(The total size of those 20 transactions * 50 sats) - (the transaction fees for those 20 transactions)

To get the maximum loss we can do

(The total size of those 20 transactions * maximum fees pending at the time of the block) - (the transaction fees for those 20 transactions)

But that will be a lot of work, the easier approach would be getting the average fee and any transaction that has a much lower fee is to be assumed accelerated, this will have a lot less accuracy but we can at least can an estimation of how much miners are losing, because as it stands right now, we don't know, it could be 0.5BTC a week, or 10 BTC a day.

Moreover, it's more than just the "lost" profit that comes as a result of including the transactions of low fees, it actually the profit that these pools generate, they charge A LOT more than what you could have paid to be included in the next block, so the profit is big and miners should be the once earning it not the pool.

Today, most large pools offer transaction accelerator service for a large fee, I know Viabtc does not give the miners any portion of that revenue and it's safe to assume that most other pools don't.

Isn't that like stealing miners' profit given that including transactions with low fees lowers the miners' income?

If it's hard to understand think about it this way, let's say there are a million transactions waiting for confirmation, all of them are paying 100 sats per Vbyte, and someone pays to the accelerator their transactions which they paid only 50 sats/vbyte, but because he pays a ton for fees the pool will include their transactions instead, and if we hypothetically assume the size of those paid transitions take half the block, the total rewards for the transactions fees will be cut by 25%, in other words, the pool "steals" 25% from the miner's profit in respect to the transaction fees, which could be 1% or 20% or any other number depending on how many transactions are pending and how much are they willing to pay, we have seen 3BTC block fees in the recent past, 25% of those 3 BTC is a lot of profit lost.

The effect could be less on FPPS but most PPS pools are rather PPS+ and the transaction fees are paid in PPLNS rather than PPS, I do not have a clue on how large this business is, but I believe it's only fair for the pool to keep a certain percentage and pay the rest of the transaction accelerator revenue to the miners.

What do you think?