was 16 cents ever good for mining BTC since the inspection of ASIC miners? I mean aside from the mania phases we had in every cycle where price goes up 2-5x in a few months before difficulty does, anything above 10 cents has always been risky despite the efficiency of the gear you mine on.

Before the China ban we know the average power rate for the Chines miners was anywhere between 4 to 6 cents (accounting for the rainy season and the 1-2 cents rate that lasts for a few months), now the large US corps claim they have rates as low as 3 cents, which makes the global average even lower compared to how it was 2 years ago.

So 16 cents didn't do well before the last halving and all the advancements in the mining sector, it sure as hell won't do good now, not even in ten years, in fact, as we move on, halvings will come, every cycle will suffer diminishing returns and mining's profit can only go down (ignoring the mania phases that last for 3 months or so), heck, I pay close to nothing for power and I question myself every time I decide to buy mining gears, let alone paying 16 cents.

نعم صديقي انا اعرف ماهو arbitrage لم استغرب من فرق السعر بين البلدين بل استغربت من فرق السعر بين الولايات المتحدة ودبي, انا اعرف ان بعض الدول يكون سعر الشراء بها عالي مثل الهند وباكستان وتركيا وغيرها من الدول التي تفرض ضرائب عالية على شراء الكريبتو او اي شي "اجنبي" واحيانا تمنع شراء الكريبتو اصلا, فقط كنت اعتقد ان دبي دولة مفتوحة على العالم ومعفية من الضرائب فيما يخص الكريبتو فكنت اعتقد ان البيع في دبي ليس مجدي, على العموم شكرا جدا على الشرح واتمنى ان لايقع صديقك في المشاكل مجددا.

مبدئيا من الصعب ان نصل الى الخلاصة من تحديث الاثيريوم, فالموضوع جديد نسبيا لوم يتجواز اليومين, ولكن على الاقل وعلى الورق فأن تكلفة القاز سوف تنخفض بنسبة كبيرة جدا, في الواقع عند استخدامك ل uniswap مثلا ستجد ان كل شي تقريبا شبه مثالي, ولكن عندما تأتيك شاشة تأكيد التحويل فسوق تنصدم بالتكلفة الخيالية التي تصل في بعض الاحيان الى 400$ كعمولة تحويل فقط نظرا لان التعامل مع العقود الذكية يكلف اكتر من التحويل العادي من عنوان لاخر.

في حال انخفاض تلك التكاليف وبقائها منخفضة فسوف تكون تلك المنصات ممتازة جدا, سوف ينقصها بعض الاشياء والتي لم تكن ممكنة في ظل التقنية الاولى مثل عمل Limit orders , stop loss وغيرها من الادوات المساعدة, ايضا تحريك السيولة داخل تلك المنصات كان مكلف جدا والان من المفترض ان تلك التكاليف سوف تنخفض, فنظريا على الاقل المنصات الامركزية المبنية على الاثيريوم سوف تشهد تطورات رهيبة في المستقبل.

Sight, that would be a rough time, what are the chances of you getting the same rates or close enough? 10%?



That makes sense, but I remember reading somewhere that nearly two-thirds of EU electricity come from oil, gas and coal, and fossil fuels, I think like 25% of the total power comes from gas alone, furthermore, it's not just EU, the whole world will be needing more power, China has started easing on the covid lockdown which might increase its demand for gas and oil, it's hard for me not to imagine a terrible winter for all of us (even worse for EU) but you know me, I am rather pessimistic.


Well, we are back at 91% pace, I found this on telegram, it was taken from Compass discord channel according to the person who posted it



It confirms my previous post, let's run some random math.

150MW at say average of 40w/th = 3750000 th or 3.75EH  > 1.7% of the total hashrate.
150MW at say average of 30w/th = 5000000 th or 5.0EH    > 2.27% of the total hashrate.

So could be safe to say that we know where a 2% drop is coming from, now it's up to you to figure out where the rest is coming from.

كنت اقوم بمراجعة هدا الموضوع لاعرف ماذا حصل مع الشخص التي تجميد حساباته, ووقفت عند هده النقطة حيث انني لا اعتقد ان هدا ماكن يفعله, كيف يمكن ان يكون شراء USDT في دبي اغلى من الولايات المتحدة؟ على حد علمي ان تكلفة شراء USDT ستكون 1$ + عمولة البطاقة المصرفية او الحوالة المصرفية او غيرها, ونحن نعلم ان الامارات دولة منفتحة على العالم وبنوكها ليست محضورة بل بالعكس هي تقدم اعفاءات ضريبية لا تقدما الولايات المتحدة, لذلك ماهو السبب الذي يجعل سعر الكريبتو في دبي اغلى من امريكا؟

اتفهم ان بعض الدول يتم بيع الكريبتو فيها باقل من ثمنه بنسبة بسيطة نظرا لصعوبة الحصول على دولار (مثل الصين وروسيا) ولكن دبي والولايات المتحدة !.  اعتقد ان الاخ hugeblack قد يكون لديه تفسير واضح.

لقد حاولت الدخول على المنصة وضهرت لي رسالة انها غير متاحة في بلدي, قمت باستخدام VPN ل 5 دول تقريبيا , منها بعض الدول الاوروبية, الامريكية وحتى بعض دول اسيا, لسبب ما كل تلك الدول كانت محضورة من استخدام المنصة وهدا غير منطقي اطلاقا, مما يعني انه على الاغلب تم اقفال المنصة ووضع تلك الرسالة التي تخبرك بأن دولتك محضورة اين كانت تلك الدولة التي تحاول الوصول منها.

على العموم, اتوقع ان يتسحن الوضع عند الدول المحضورة مثل سوريا بعد تحول الايثيريوم الى POS, بغض النظر عن كل العيوب, سوف تكون رسوم التحويل ارخص بكثير وسوف يساهم هدا في تطور المنصات الامركزية بشكل كبير, وبما ان العملات المتسقرة المعروفة موجودة على بلوكتشين الايثير وحتى البتكوين يوجد اصدار على الايثير يساويها في القيمة, مع تقارب عمولة المنصات سوف يكون من الافضل استخدام المنصات اللامركزية حتى للاشخاص غير المحضورين من المنصات المركزية.

Actually, this topic was in a different section, and most of the comments are from speculators who have probably never owned a mining gear, I remember we had a similar one here which I can't seem to find, that one was jam-packed with info mostly posted by actual miners, I'll post it here if I managed to find it, meanwhile OP should try to search for it, it's here somewhere.


OP, this is an impossible-to-answer question, everyone will tell you a different answer and none of them is wrong/right simply because nobody can see the future.

If you were to backtest this question, you could easily cherry-pick periods were mining was better, and of course the same thing for the opposite side.

However, more often than not, buying BTC at a bear market (which we are in now) was a lot more feasible than investing money in mining gears.

The logic is rather simple, just look at the price history of mining gears price, electricity price, and difficulty.

It won't take you much to see that mining gear values are generally in a downtrend while electricity price and difficulty are on a general bullish trend, in fact, you don't even need to look at the charts to know that, but of course, those trends have ups and downs, so there are periods where the whole trend shifts, but betting against the trend usually doesn't do you good.

You are buying a piece of gear that loses value over time, which runs on energy that goes up in price over time, all at the same time while that gear is costing you more to run just to make less.

This is why timing is key (of course assuming your power rate is below average which is 2-4 cents as of now) don't ask me how but that's what the large us corps are paying (according to them).

So if your power rate is within a combative range, your chances get better, but even with that, as DaveF mentioned the gear could just die on you halfway, it could get to a point where it burns more power than it makes, so the risk is just way too high compared to the rewards.

Some people think the USD value is what matters, so they complicate things and usually end up getting to the worst conclusion, I think measuring your ROI in BTC is the way to go, because your gear is making you BTC, not USD, and with the current gear prices ROI is anywhere from 1.5 to 2 years assuming your power rate is somehow fine.

Now think about it, do you really think your gear will run for 2 years straight without an issue? also, I know people that bought S19s for 15k or nearly 0.5 BTC back then who thought ROI was 1 year, it's now 2 years and they are not there yet, why? well because difficulty just keeps growing, the 2 years turn into 3 years, and so on.

You need to get lucky to actually beat DCAing BTC by just mining it, of course, this is the basis of it, Phill and some of the other American friends have another important factor they like to add in which is tax, I know little to nothing about U.S tax so I can't explain to you how mining beats buying BTC with respect to the tax laws of the united states or wherever you live.

But my long story short, don't buy gears that are over 1 year ROI in BTC based on your current power rate, because your power rate will likely go up along with difficulty and that 1 year ROI will likely be at least 1.5 years which is still somehow doable, anything above that and you will very likely not make it out, not with the halving happening in 2024.

مبدئيا, الشحن المجاني من علي اكسبرس لمعظم دول اعالم مضيعة للوقت فهم يستخدمون البريد العادي الذي يحتاج ل 3 اشهر واحيانا كثيرة لا يصل اصلا, البديل الامن هوا استخدام شركات الشحن المعروفة مثل DHL ولكن هده اسعارها غالية بعض الشي فعليك عمل دراسة جدوى بالخصوص.

البديل الاخر والافضل هوا شركات تحويل الشحنات واشهرها واضمنها شركة Aramex لديهم فروع في معظم دول العالم, كل ماعليك هوا فتح حساب مجاني معهم (قد يتطلب الامر الدهاب الى احد مكاتبهم) وبهدا سوف يكون لديك عنوان شحن في كل البلدان التي تتواجد بها مكاتبهم (تقريبا كل بلدان العالم التي يعرفها الانسان الطبيعي الغير ملم بالجغرافية).

هده الشركة تتميز بسرعة الشحن وسعر الشحن مناسب جدا مع نظام تتبع للشحنات جيد جدا, والميزة ان الشحن من مخزن البائع الى مخزن شركة ارامكس سيكون مجاني في معظم الاوقات.

بعض المشاكل التي قد تواجهك :

في الشراء من علي اكسبرس عند استخدام شركات التحويل قد يرفض البائع ارسال البضائع الى عنوان داخل الصين (بعض السلع ممنوعة ولكن هدا يعتمد على تفاضوكم وتفاهمك مع البائع) وفي اسواء الاحوال يمكن شحنها الى اقرب بلد, الولايات المتحدة هي اسرع وارخص خط في الشحن من الصين, فحتى الشحن المجاني لا يستغرق الا بضعة ايام من الصين, وعند وصول الشحنة لعنوانك في الولايات المتحدة سوف تحتاج الى 2-3 اسابيع لتصل الى بلدك, فقط تأكد انه لن يتم فرض ضرائب جمركية على بضاعتك, في العادة فقط الالتكرونات هي التي تخضع للضرائب ولكن يمكنك دائما التحقق عبر مراسلة شركة ارامكس.

عند الشراء من الولايات المتحدة, يوجد فقط 5 ولايات امريكية معفية من ضريبة الشراء, للاسف مكتب ارامكس هناك في ولاية نيو يورك وهي ليست معفية من الضرائب, ولكن باستناء الالكترونات فالضريبة الامريكية صغيرة ولن تشكل فارق شاسع في التكلفة الكلية.


ان كنت تبحت عن شخص يسدد فواتيرك في علي اكسبرس (سداد الفاتورة فقط يعني تعطيه بايانات دخولك على الموقع, يجد الفاتورة التي طلبتها انت من البائع يقوم فقط بسدادها مقابل USDT فيمكنني مساعدتك في حال ان الفواتير تفوق قيمة 1000$ للفاتورة الواحدة, اعرض شخص مضمون يقدم هده الخدمة)

في المقابل, موقع علي اكسبرس يقبل معظم البطاقات الافتراضية لذلك حاول الحصول على واحدة لكي تتمكن من الشراء بنفسك.

في حال رغبتك بالشراء من اماوزن يمكنك استخدام Purse.io شخصيا استخدم هدا الموقع وهوا ممتاز, يمكنك الحصول على تخفيضات ممتازة عند الشراء من امازون عن طريقه, المشكلة الوحيدة انه لايقبل الى بتكوين وبتكوين كاش يعني يمكن ان ينخفض سعر العملة قبل قبول طلبك, طبعا العكس.


البديل الاخر لشركة ارامكس هوا استخدام شركات اعادة الشحن الداخلية, مثل planet express, تقوم بالتسجيل معهم لتحصل على عنوان في ولايات امريكية مختلفة "منها بعض الولايات المعفية من الضرائب" وتقوم بتجميع شحناتك لديهم ومن تم ارسالها عبر DHL, Fedex او احد الشركات الاخرى, هدا يجعل سعر الشحن ارخص بكثير من الشحن مباشرة من الامازون خصوصا في حال شحن كميات كبيرة من البضائع.

** الميزة من استخدام شركات التحويل مثل ارامكس او بعض شركات اعادة الشحن الامريكية مثل planet express هي انه يمكنك شراء اي منتج من الامازون, الشحن مباشرة الى بلدك يعني انك تستطيع شراء منتجات محددة فقط تلك التي يتم شحنها لبلدك.

Do they even sleep with all those gears you got inside the garage? 


Ya, I head from my friends in EU that the electricity price has passed the roof already, what is the current price you pay? also, do you think it will get worse in the winter given that the gas mess of Russia does not seem like ending anytime soon.


See, I'd like to stick to my general belief which states that after every  1-2+ cycles, other non-US large players will be forced out, but so far with 300 blocks we are still at about 93% pace, which doesn't really fit the narrative, 7% is a couple of hundred thousand gears, it can't be just a few small players leaving, while I do not think my theory is completely false, I think there is more to it than just the large guys grow and the small ones leave.

With that said, I still think any large change in difficulty has to come from the U.S, maybe some of the large players have shut down due to electricity shortages? maybe selling power to the grid makes them more profit than mining at this stage?

Also, it seems like Compass mining had their mining place in Canada shut down again on the 14th of this month, I don't know how much hashrate is there but I recall they had about 150MW there, not sure what hashrate that brings them.
 

That was in response to your false claim


You think you got the airdropped merit because you are "highly active and highly ranked", so I had correct you on this (like how I often do), there was nothing special about you, you got merit just like anyone else, sorry to ruin it for you.


To be honest, I am certain you can't blend in well with others, I was just trying to be nice by saying "maybe".



Slush folks wrote their first firmware from scratch, furthermore, you also used the code of other people, it's not like you invented computers and binary and wrote everything from scratch, but those folks now dominate the mining firmware space alongside with Bitmain and the others, of course, thanks to you and to the everyone else.






Well, you were the one to talk about getting paid, not me.


It is pretty clear that you were hopping for a better price, I do not think USB miners are a waste of time, I simply explained that those folks make little to no profit, so it would be foolish to think that the small USB sticks community can pay you anything larger and that if you are not happy with the little "cost" you got, then go ahead and make something for the ASIC community because that's where the money is made.




I did not say I don't like it, your posts aren't being stored on my drive, and I don't sell custom firmware,  despite the fact that I don't like your attitude I do think you deserve more which is why I just feel bad for you, I really do, and to see you sitting here in a few topics that only a couple people read -- nagging about how that firmware is closed source or and the other one violate your license without actually doing something effective about it like "Making your own firmware" is just sad.

So no, I am not trying to tell you what to do, it's not like my miners are sitting there waiting for your firmware, it was just free advice from a random person on the internet, you don't have to be triggered by it, if you don't like me suggesting that you should compete by making your own firmware, just ignore it and stick to the nagging.

Anyway, you have taken this matter too personally, maybe I did too, and this is going off-topic, so I will stop here. I will also refrain from replying to your posts to the best of my abilities, even those that sound to me like complete B.S.

Good luck.

Oh fudge, did you really need to say that? could you not just talk about something else?  well thanks to you, we are back to 19k, would you please do us a great favour and stay bullish on diff while bearish on price?  

@ phill, I still don't see where the manipulation is, this rinse and repeat has been the norm for long, large U.S corps receive a dozen containers, they go online, bring the diff up, that makes a few other miners' lives a bit more miserable so they shut down, depending on the timing we could have a small tiny drop or none at all, stompix gets excited about how diff growth slowed down, I start online shopping for a Lambo, the next thing you know is another cargo ship arriving at one of the U.S ports loaded with couple dozen mining gears and I go back to fixing my old non-lambo car.

Sorry to tell you that everyone that was barely active before the merit airdrop which took a place a few years back got the same amount of 'airdropped' merit as you, which includes all the scammers and spammers.



Ya, maybe because you can't really blend in well with others? did he just decide to lock you for no reason? unless he is mentally unstable I don't think he would do so, but either way regardless of that, you could still continue on on your own and provide new firmware that matches the current custom firmware, getting lockout of ck's owned git is not an excuse of why you let a few newcomers beat you at your own game.

You brag about being in this field long before most of us, but what is the outcome? Vnish who probably didn't hear of crypto until it was talked about on TV now has firmware running on hundreds of thousands if not millions of gears, the same goes for Slush folks, how many gears run your own complete ready-to-flash firmware? ZERO.




That's so nice of you, but come on, who uses those USB sticks? just a couple of hobbyists who barely make any profit, why not compete against custom firmware on actual ASICs like S 9/17/19 if you actually want to be paid for your efforts? we pay 2-3% on firmware fees for BO+ and Vnish, i am sure most people will be happy paying you the same fee or if it was a fee-less firmware you would still get large donations, I will be the first one to do so.


Have you ever thought that nagging about the closed-source firmware which some of them violate your license actually gets you nowhere and that the best thing to do would be to actually compete against them?

I assume that many miners think that "When you hit a whole block, does it really matter if you give 2% vs 1% or even no fee at all?" , .

But then the answer to your question is rather difficult, Ck solo pool has been here for years, as it says in the title that it found 267 blocks so far, Kano's solo pool is relatively new, and as far as I know, no block was hit there yet, and you know it takes time for something new to be as popular.

Also, this pool requires no registration or login, you just use your BTC address which is pretty damn convenient.

Another reason could be "personal reasons" regarding the pools' owners themselves.

There are probably many other reasons, it's the same question as why many of us use Viabtc and pay 4% instead of using Poolin/Binance with only 2-2.5%, it's not just about the fees.

 See that is the issue, nobody gets paid for giving merit, not sure why do you wait for others to do it, it is a community thing, which you chose not to participate in.

Besides, there is no proper way of spending merit, everyone has their own thoughts on what posts deserve merit, just because you do not like those posts it does not mean they should not be merited.


Keep making your own assumption, you are good at this, i never said it is okay to violate any license, in fact, you should actually go after them and take legal actions instead of nagging about it here all the time.

As for opensource or not, when it comes to mining, i want the best firmware to be on my gears, i could not care less who wrote the firmware, you say you have been in this game for 11 years and yet you do not have any firmware that I can run on my gears, a few guys that joined the game years after you have already made some sick firmware, be it written from scratch like BO or modified like Vnish.

What kind of manipulation are we talking about here? I think everything is going according to plan, I have been bullish on difficulty since the large U.S corps joined the game, I still am, those guys have access to a lot of money and very cheap power, why would they stop? it's safe to assume that they already control above 50% of the total hashrate, and they keep on growing, unless something catastrophic happens, this won't change until the halving hits.

Any difficult drop that may occur in the near future would be the result of non-U.S corps leaving, and will be wiped out by the new containers they keep dropping in the states, will they go on forever? of course not, but until something happens it's safe to assume that they will keep expanding.

Unfortunately, there is no way on the software level for this, if you want to maintain the same airflow then I'd imagine the only way is to seal/isolate some of the pins on the adapter plate that connects the bad hashboard, this way the miner would think the board is not attached and won't do go into an endless loop.

Meanwhile, you could ask their support here > https://t.me/whatsminercommunity , maybe, they have made a new update in regards to this issue, but as far as I know and up to my most recent updates, there is none.

ETH was also mined by ASICs alongside GPU, if not for the merge and if gear manufacturers were not under repeated threat of "we are going POS - your gears will be worthless" it would have been only a matter of time before ASICs dominate ETH.

Since BTC community had no intention or even real talks about going POS or switching to another algo, gear manufacturers invested billions of dollars in research in order to optimize ASIC miners for BTC.

Another important factor is the market size of each of these coins, BTC has always been a lot bigger than ETH, the huge potential profit that is ready to be milked out of BTC allowed said companies to invest and manufacture a huge number of ASICs that eventually killed GPU mining.

So really, unless you are talking about a small coin that isn't worth the efforts, or a centralized coin "at least at the development level" it will always end up being mined in the most efficient "way" whether that would be ASICs or hiring space aliens to mine it, you can't dictate what miners would use to mine it.

It's been a while since I posted here, I missed most of the special merit records, and now at 4500 merit I think I should post this for future reference.




@o_e_l_e_o congrats mate I think @LoyceV won't easily accept the defeat  , let's see who gets 15k merit first.

All the points mentioned in OP and the other comments are completely valid, but honestly the lifespan of any mining gear depends MAINLY on it's quality, if you have ever bought a used antminer S9 from china, it will come with a ton of dust and possibility rust, those gears were abused and mostly used near the rivers where hydropower is/were the cheapest, despite all the abuse they had gone through, they kept running fine for years "they still do".

On the other hand, if you happen to have bought brand new T17s, and put them in the best condition, cleaned them every day, and ran them pretty cool, you would still likely end up with 50%+ failure rate in a matter of weeks.

=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5336243.0I "abused" one of my M21s, it ran with a single fan and was clotted with dust, it did not even bother, it kept hashing its way, I took care of the 17 series I bought from Bitmain more than I took care of myself , and yet they died on me in no time.

I am not saying "Don't clean your miner" or don't "cool your miner", all I am saying is, if you buy a robust mining gear, you will need to do little to no maintaince during the economical lifespan of the miner.

These two statements contradict each other, which one is true? did you really not understand my statement? or do you think it's false? you can't say it's false without understanding the meaning of it, on the other hand, if you did actually understand what I was trying to imply -- it means my English is not bad 'contrary to your first statement.

Anyway, the button line of my statement which you seem to have perfectly understood is that you can't really blend in well with others, you parted ways with CK, things didn't end up great with Bitmain, and you have issues with every mining firmware developer/representative in this forum, heck, you even have issues with most folks in the mining community, which is why I am not surprised by the fact that you don't participate in the merit system, because you do NOT have the final word in how the system should operate, you probably also think that only your posts are worthy of merit.

That's probably the main reason why you hardly receive any merit, not just because you are a rude person who doesn't respect others.

Now if for whatever reason, you still don't get it, sorry I can't translate any better.