Ok, I need to get a life. I just spent the last hour cutting and pasting text from the Coinia richlist as it downloaded the UNO block chain. It seemed just too unique of an opportunity to pass up.
Believe it or not, when I started the "what do you see going on," discussion earlier today, I had wanted to talk about Coinex and the possibility that a thief may be dumping stolen coins on the market, depressing the price. But I had no idea I would get this opportunity with the Richlist today. After I had posted here, I got an email from Agran out of the blue, saying he had restored the old richlist. I checked it out and saw it was showing the richlist from January.
As agran's richlist downloaded the UNO block chain I copied text snapshots of the top wallets between January and June 2014.
Here's what I was able to get:
http://pastebin.com/jnQXkRSVPerhaps you can help with some analysis. But here are a few things I quickly noticed along the way.
In January the top wallet (uLpiP5hE8fPF4iEvhix4HCKTTWfWADZTb5, I will call it uLpiP-) had 19k uno, and #3 wallet (udYSEGN-) had about 4.75k uno.
[Update: We now have proof that uLpiP belonged to Coinex:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=527500.msg7530998#msg7530998 ]
I tried to capture a bunch of richlist snapshots in February, around the time of the Wolong pump but I haven't noticed anything particularly interesting; it looks like top wallet around that time was fairly active and had been selling off a bit. Wolong probably converted BTC to UNO, and then UNO back to BTC on the exchange, never transferring his UNO off the exchange, so it won't appear in the UNO block chain.
The Coinex hack was
announced on Twitter on March 16.
Here is what the UNO "Richlist" looked like the day that CoinEx alleged it had problems. The #1 wallet, uPip has been connected by me and others to CoinEx through our withdrawals. It's the main Coinex wallet for UNO.
On March 17, a new wallet appeared at #3 (uffGuBZtoJTP8f4nAQKRSCrxKWECzugXn3 , which I'll call uffGuBZ-) with 4k uno that was
conclusively withdrawn from the #1 ulPip Coinex wallet.
Then on March 18, the #1 wallet, uLpiP- completely disappeared from the list, and uffGuBZ jumped to the #1 spot with 9,313 uno.
uffGuBZ has been slowly liquidating since May, when UNO had a lot of good news and the price rightly rose upwards of .006. Remember, in March this wallet was at 9,313 uno. By May 8th it had 6500 uno. May 17, 6350. May 20, 5900. May 25, 4650. May 28, 4000 (drops to #2 position). May 31, 3700. June 1, 2850 (#6). June 7, 2250 (#12).
Here's my best guess:
We know that on the day CoinEx announced its problems, there was 165,137.50146107 uno, and that CoinEx's ULpiP wallet had 8,695.43815399 Uno or 5.26% of total supply at that time.
I suspect a link between the stolen Coinex UNO and uffGuBz-. [edit: Voluntarist500 found the
connection between uLpiP and uffGuBZ ] The thief may have been taking advantage of the higher prices in May to liquidate their holdings. Obviously, selling 9k uno (especially when combined with the accelerated mining of UNO because of the block timing) has been putting a LOT of downward pressure on Unobtanium.
uffGuBz now has just 300 uno as I write this (
https://chainz.cryptoid.info/uno/address.dws?uffGuBZtoJTP8f4nAQKRSCrxKWECzugXn3.htm )
Since exchange trading happens off the blockchain, you wouldn't expect the wallet transfers to match what's happening in the market price exactly. I suspect coins were moved from this big wallet to exchange accounts in smaller increments so as not to attract a lot of attention.
I think this latest sell off has been a coordinated effort that has gone across virtually all of UNO's markets. I had my buy orders fill virtually on the same day on Mintpal, Cryptsy, Coins-e, and Allcrypt. I also saw a dump occurred on Coinbroker.io around the same time.
Although the uffGuBz wallet is nearly empty, we don't know how many stolen uno still remain in his exchange balance.
We also don't know if there are other smaller wallets that escaped my attention.
We don't even know if any of this is true.
But the pieces and the timing seem to fit.
I can see how this would have a very depressing effect on the UNO market -- despite all the good news, the active community, new services, talented new devs, good publicity... the price goes down and the psychological effect is brutal.
But if we understand that this could be the effect two powerful influences: stolen coins being dumped, and rapid mining of uno, what we really have here is a *fantastic* opportunity.
First, the dumping will stop eventually, because the presumed-thief wants out. He has no reason to hang around, and wants a more liquid market. So go ahead and post those buy orders for .0015 -- he'll probably fill them. I see many of you are already expecting more dumping and are stacking buy orders between .001 and .002 (hell, I am too); they're on the books, you can see them yourself. And why not -- as long term UNO supporters and owners, you may as well buy back the stolen UNO cheap and join the "1% owners" club. In the short term, I think UNO could fall quite a bit further, until the thief is done. As someone who is in largely above .005, I'm not pleased about it in the short term, but long term I know I'm OK. UNO is quite literally a steal at these prices.
Second, the mining is slowing. 0.9.5 is already producing longer block times. The 0.9.5 code has restored UNO to the original slower 3 minute block times and I am already seeing the effect of this in the block explorer, as spacing between blocks is increasing. And Timewarp protection has stopped the accelerated mining and stealing from our core miners.
You understand what this all means, right? Flooding UNO on the market is about to stop. We're already to nearly 190,000 uno out of only 250k that will ever exist. Another reward halving will occur rather soon. The last 50k Uno will be mined at a tremendously low block reward. And the final 250-thousandth UNO won't be mined for nearly 300 years! That means for all practical purposes, UNO is essentially mined out.
My guess (and feel 100% free to disagree with me) is that UNO today is a very, very unique opportunity in crypto. UNO is not POS -- you don't get free UNO just for owning some. Unobtanaium is virtually mined out, and if Erundook at Coinex.pw hadn't been such a fuckup, the price of UNO would be much higher than it is right now.
My money is squarely bet on the success of UNO. Look where we were in March -- and look at the progress we've had since then. If uffGuBz had not liquidated nearly 10k uno in a short period, and so much uno hadn't been mined because of accelerated block times, (more than 75,000 uno has been mined just this year) I absolutely believe that the price of UNO would be .007 to .01, much closer to where it belongs.
That's what I'm seeing and thinking right now. My best guess. Would love to hear yours.
[made a few edits for clarity]
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