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Hence why the argument of it already being priced in somewhat certainly holds water.
It isn't priced in because it is over a year away. There are people arguing for a rally, a fizzle or no effect.
It is undeniably a huge event on the bitcoin calendar because it marks the last time that bitcoin coin inflation can ever be blamed for supply exceeding demand and pushing the price down.
5% inflation is pretty good. But any price shenanigans that go on around that time will be driven by the same heavy speculators driving the price up and down.
In the longer run if demand picks up then the reduced mining supply could lead to price rises. Which would be nice.
Disagree. Any event that you know of is a part of the consideration when buying/selling that stock/currency/commodity etc etc.
I'm not saying its completely priced in I said hence why that argument holds water.
You can't seriously suggest that it's not already part of the market psychology when people are already talking about it and anticipating a price rise due to it. All speculators big and small are holding hoping for it to cause a price rise.
It certainly doesn't mark the last time that btc inflation can be blamed for supply exceeding demand. How can you possibly say that. If the price rallies up to $10000 on a spike (remember on long term charts $1000+ was just a monthly spike) Then supply in $ terms could still easily outstrip demand. Don't forget not all mined coins are instantly sold, and all mined coins are part of inflation.
My point being you can't possibly state what you're saying as fact.
