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321  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: March 11, 2024, 11:31:10 PM
Boring main event. Both looked like non-championship fighters. I wonder how long Dana White protects this Pink Poodle from Dvalishvili. Cejudo was already taken care of. Long time champion Aljamain Sterling should've been given an immediate rematch but surprisingly his mind changed and is now moving up in weight, probably convinced or paid by Dana.

I wouldn't call it boring, it was a decent fight. I don't like O'Malley as a human being and I don't like what he represents, but I have to give him credit when it's due - he's a solid and consistent fighter. But yeah, he's probably not looking forward to a fight against Dvalishvili, he called out Ilia instead, which is a very good move. Losing to Topuria would bring him no shame at all, he would earn tonnes of money and by calling him out makes him look brave and confident in the eyes of the fans.
Sadly, Dana wasn't happy with the idea in the post-fight press conference.

Great wins by Maddalena and Poirier but heart-breaking losses by Gilbert and Saint-Denis. Damn, Gilbert should've stayed it safe but he has a heart of a warrior and risked his position in the last seconds of the final round. Saint-Denis was a bit reckless there and was finally caught hard.

Saint-Denis got some reality-check, fighting no-names is not the same as fighting guys from the top 5, but I don't think that loss would hurt his career in any way. He still managed to present himself well and caused Poirier a lot of troubles in the first round.
322  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: March 11, 2024, 06:21:14 PM
So it finally happened. With 10 rounds to go, Liverpool has lost their league leader spot in favour of Arsenal. Things are getting really exciting, we rarely see 3 teams with almost exact number of points at this stage of competition.
Some could say Arsenal looked a bit disappointing in their game against Brentford, scoring "only" 2 goals at home, but if that's what they do on their "bad day" the future looks bright for them. Consistency is the key.
As for Liverpool Vs City, the 1-1 draw seems fair. City was bookies' favourite (a slight one though), but it was Liverpool who was a bit more dominating, at least when it comes to shots on goal and possession.
323  Bitcoin / Press / [2024-03-08] CNBC: Bitcoin breaks $70,000 in volatile trading, hitting a new... on: March 08, 2024, 11:29:41 PM
As expected, the new ATH means more mainstream media press hits. Here's one from today from CNBC:

Bitcoin breaks $70,000 in volatile trading, hitting a new record to end the week

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/08/bitcoin-breaks-70000-in-volatile-trading-hitting-a-new-record-.html

Quote
The price of bitcoin jumped to a new record on Friday, breaking through $70,000 for the first time ever.

The cryptocurrency was last higher by about 2% at $69,304.84, according to Coin Metrics. At one point, however, it rose as high as $70,170.00, topping its previous record set on Tuesday. It’s on pace to end the week higher by 10%.

The up move began around the time the U.S. stock market opened. With the introduction of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S., big crypto moves now tend to take place during traditional stock trading hours.

The early advance may have been driven in part by investors who were weighing the February jobs report, hopeful that a higher unemployment rate and cooler than initially reported employment growth in December and January will clear the way for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates later this year.
(..)
324  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Sentiment Poll for March on: March 08, 2024, 11:20:56 PM
Closing March in profit would be something unprecedented. Never in the Bitcoin's history we have had 7 "green" months in a row. The previous longest run was 6 months in 2020/2021:



Credit to Cygan

But I can't see why this record can't be broken. We had that ~11.5% dip on 5th and I thought the market would cool down, but the price recovered nicely and we broke the new ATH. The market mood seems to be positive but the volume dropped down a bit, which is never a good sign. If I had to bet, I'd still say that we'll end March in profit and the price will stay above the opening ~$61k.
325  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: March 08, 2024, 11:00:27 PM
Biggest game of the season on Sunday at Anfield for Liverpool vs Man City. I didn’t get a ticket for this one sadly so will be watching from home. I don’t know what to expect really, the game could be decided by a moment of brilliance or a mistake. I don’t think it will be an easy win for either team.
(...)

I'm surprised to see that City is actually a slight favourite:


Probably injuries played a big part in the odds setting.

Whatever happens, it will be good for Arsenal, if only they manage to win over Brentford tomorrow. If Liverpool draws with the City and Arsenal beats Brentford - Arsenal will take the 1st spot with the same number of points as Liverpool but with a better goal difference.
326  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: March 08, 2024, 10:46:48 PM
It is quite risky to see Inter's narrow lead from the first leg against Atletico and even though they are favorites to win, playing the second leg at Atletico's home ground will be a problem. Usually Atletico will be more difficult to beat if they are at home and their fans will never stop providing support. I think Atletico could overturn the aggregate lead and if something like that happens, Inter must be prepared for the worst. Inter just needs to strengthen their defense and if they are able to score more goals, it will be difficult for Atletico to catch up on the aggregate goals.

The 1-0 result is a bit misleading and suggests it was an even game, but it was not. Inter was dominating and had plenty of great scoring chances, they just were out of luck and couldn't convert them into goals.
If not for bad luck, it would probably be something like 3-0.
Looking at Inter's past games this season, it doesn't make much difference for them if they play at home or away. And with 15 points advantage in Serie A over the 2nd Juventus, they can now focus primarily on the Champions League.

Anything is possible, but I think Inter is still a massive favourite to go through to the next round.
327  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Risking 1% in Gambling on: March 08, 2024, 10:26:08 PM
For anyone that is serious about making money while trying to find a consistent strategy in gambling, this sort of approach is very wise and is basically called bankroll management. However in reality you will generally find that most people who are drawn to gambling are not necessarily financially or mathematically savvy. They are often looking for shortcuts to wealth, so if they have a hundred dollars in their account they will usually not have the patience to only be gambling $1 at a time. It's hard to beat bookmakers anyway, so unless you are applying this strategy in a skilled game like poker it will be difficult to find much benefit from managing your money deposited in gambling sites like this.

Not to be rude but if you think that betting 1% of your bankroll on each bet is a "wise" strategy, then maybe you're not very mathematically or financially savvy yourself.
If you want to do it right, you need to consider odds, chances of winning/losing and frequency of events.
Having a hard 1% rule, disregarding the type of game or any other factors is just lazy and silly. In real life, you'll see plenty of instances when 1% could be either not enough or too much.
328  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing] Anthony Joshua vs. Francis Ngannou - March 9 on: March 08, 2024, 10:11:50 PM
francis is also a skilled boxer. that's why it's not making sense when the bookmakers are presenting francis to be the underdog when in fact if we are to measure which of them has the hardest punch, everybody will pick him. they were just banking on who has more experience in boxing.

there could still be an upset but i would see francis winning almost 90% if he would just be careful with his strategy.

In such case you should be super happy about Francis being x3.45 underdog. If you truly believe he's 90% favourite, that's a golden opportunity for you to make easy money.
Personally, I think the odds for Francis are already low, considering it's only his 2nd fight. This means oddsmakers have a lot of confidence in him, or it could be just due to lots of people betting on him. For comparison (as I posted previously) the odds for Andy Ruiz Jr in his first fight against AJ (which he had won) were x12.0.

My estimation of a chance of winning is 65% for AJ and 35% for Ngannou.
329  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Boxing Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: March 08, 2024, 09:57:40 PM
Not a fan of this kind of games, but let's admit it, Jake Paul has making a ton of money when he started his career of being a boxer in the exhibition fight era. And this could be one of his biggest pay check as he will be taking on the Legendary Iron Mike Tyson. But at the end of the day still boils down on the money here as they have a huge backer in Netflix.

But as for the winner, Jake Paul is the initial favorite as listed and so with that, I think the fight will go on the distance. I think Tyson will not go full force in this fight and try to score a knockout, besides he is almost 60 years of age.

I'm not a big fan of such fights either, and would never bought a ticket or pay-per-view for it, but at the same time, I'm not going to lie - I am curious how will that unfold.
Mike might be old, but he still has a lot of power and explosiveness and surely won't be stepping into a ring to get a beating from some showbiz kid.
Paul's weight in recent fights was only around ~84 kg, while Tyson was at 100kg during the fight against Roy Jones Jr. in Nov 2020. I'd imagine Paul will probably want to bulk up a bit.
The current odds on Mike are x3.2, which I think could be a good bet to take.
330  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: March 08, 2024, 09:41:24 PM
Przekroczył $70k wg coinmarketcap (dokładnie $70,083.05) ale wg CoinGecko $70k jeszcze nie zostało osiągnięte (daily high/ATH $69,427.72). Na innych, mniejszych serwisach (coinpaprika czy coinlib) też do $70k trochę zabrakło, ale skoro coinmarketcap jest najbardziej popularną stroną, to $70k chyba można uznać za zaliczone.

Nasuwa się pytanie jak to rozegrać, czy dalej zakładać że największa pompa nastąpi przynajmniej kilka miesięcy po halvingu, a może już teraz warto wyznaczyć sobie jakieś punkty wyjścia i trzymać palec na spuście.
A może wogóle nie wychodzić licząc że ETFy nakręciły taki popyt, że będziemy już tylko szli systematycznie w górę  Undecided
 
331  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: March 07, 2024, 11:54:46 PM
Inter Milan given at 10 seems to me to be a very high price for something very probable, I who see Inter Milan play have certainly seen their strength, they are a stable, strong and implacable team at the moment
I think he can easily reach the final.. for win i dont know if is possible or not, but 10 is much for me

The big factor here is that Inter still has a 2nd leg to play against Atletico Madrid. They're only one goal ahead and are playing an away game which is never easy. In contrast, 4 teams have already qualified, so it's not weird at all that odd-makers are giving them higher chances. It's still impressive that the odds for Inter are lower than for PSG, who already advanced to the next round.

It'll all change next week. Inter is doing really well in Serie A, and it's almost certain at this point that they'll win it. But I still think Man City is a better team, they are very consistent in the toughest league in the world.
332  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Boxing Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: March 07, 2024, 11:39:08 PM
So apparently Jake Paul (wannabe boxer slash youtuber) will be fighting Mike Tyson on 20th July.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/boxing/68504821

Tyson will be 58 at the date of the fight, Paul is 31 years younger than him (27 y.o). That's a huge age gap (possibly the biggest in boxing history?).
I am not surprised that Mike agreed to the fight, and from Paul's perspective that's also a good choice, as the fight is easy to hype, and if manages to avoid a KO by Tyson, he could then spin it as his success.

Any thoughts on that fight?
333  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing] Anthony Joshua vs. Francis Ngannou - March 9 on: March 07, 2024, 11:21:50 PM
Short video from official weight-ins and the face-off:
https://youtu.be/FFx55fdyY8I?si=LU5LGwkRUBVHT7IG

Ngannou weighed 272.6 pounds (123.6 kg), while Joshua was 252.4 pounds (114.5 kg). Francis is noticeably heavier, but that's not a very significant advantage, his weight is almost the same as in the fight with Fury.
AJ has some height advantage, but Ngannou has already proven he knows how to deal with that.
334  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: March 07, 2024, 11:07:28 PM
Almeida moves like he isn't a heavyweight but I'm not sure also whether he can submit Blaydes. He wasn't able to knock Lewis last year. Either this will be Almeida by KO or UD which Almeida will also exhaust his cardio in 3 rounds.

He wasn't able to finish Lewis in his last fight, but he completely neutralised him, Lewis wasn't able to do anything in that fight and was getting really frustrated. I expect the same scenario could happen to Blaydes. Almeida doesn't have to finish him to win. If he dominates, hell get the decission.

Chito is the underdog but I think he still will be successful chasing Sean. He is disciplined and as long as he can avoid getting hit by the head from Sean's strikes, he will defeat Sean again. In their first fight, even before the kick that rocked Sean's leg, he wasn't able to execute well against Chito.

I was surprised to learn that Chito has never been submitted or KO'ed in his career. All his losses were by decisions. So, statistically, the most likely scenario seems to be the fight going to distance and O'Malley winning by decision. I just can't imagine Vera finishing Sean, but I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

I think I may go with Jailton Almeida and the fight of Tom Aspinall VS Jailton Almeida will be more interesting than making a rematch against Curtis Blaydes.

Jailton Vs Tom would be a decent fight, Almeida could finally test Tom's ground game.
Although there were some rumours going around that Brock Lesnar was interested in returning to UFC to fight Tom, but that's probably not true.
335  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: March 06, 2024, 11:24:07 PM
Smooth sailing for Man City. Copenhagen just wasn't a match for them, the Danish team is not in its peak form, even in their league they lost 3 out of the last 5 games.

City is a massive favourite to win the Champions League. Odds are as follows:



Of course this will change after next week's 2nd leg games are completed. I wouldn't be surprised if Arsenal moved to the top spot. They are having an absolutely great time in the Premier League, scoring an average of 4.8 goals per game in their last 5 league games. And that's including defeating Liverpool 3-1.
336  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing] Anthony Joshua vs. Francis Ngannou - March 9 on: March 06, 2024, 10:42:58 PM
Not sure if someone will try to play this game or not. But if you are interest, you can see the link here, both in English and Arabic: https://www.knockoutchaos.com/.


Thanks for sharing. I had a go and managed to beat up Ngannou on the 2nd attempt.



That's an interesting way of promoting a fight, I don't think anyone has done it in the past. They could have done a little better with playability, i.e. add body shots etc.


Only two days to go and not much has changed in terms of odds, AJ is still the favourite at x1.27, and betting on Francis you can get x3.75 which is not that much really considering it's only his 2nd boxing fight.

Link to the press conference:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooj-jhIvNuI
Shorter version:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cm0cnP2rAa8
337  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is the best way to store your seed phrase? on: March 06, 2024, 02:47:43 PM
Here's a video from Andreas Antonopoulos (anybody still remembers him?) from 3 years ago, in which he strongly advise against splitting seed phrases:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5nSibpfHYE

A lot of people disagrees with him in the comments though and I also find his argumentation and logic lacking. So take it for what its worth.
If his general message is that there are better and more secure ways of storing seeds - that's fine. But I don't understand how storing full phrase in 3 different locations is considered more secure than splitting it. It just makes no sense.
338  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: March 05, 2024, 10:52:13 PM
What about Petr Yan vs Song Yadong fight? Yan is in tricky situation. Former. Champion is now on a series of 3 straight losses. Yadong won last two fight. If Yan losses, he would either get released (which would be both fair and strange, as he used to be one of the best in 135) or he will slowly turn into Tony Ferguson  Grin Bookies see Yan as a slight favorite, but a very shaky favorite.

Looking at the records only can give a misleading picture. Yan might have lost 3 in a row, but they were all by decisions, two of which were split decisions, both to a champion (Sterling) and a future champion (O'Malley). Even O'Malley didn't really feel victorious at that fight.
Petr has an impressive number of winning against big-names and is still in his prime age-wise. It's true that he's desperate to win if he wants to stay at the top and try to get the belt back. So it's all a question of whether he's mentally in the right place or if he'll get desperate and chaotic.
Song only fought one top name, Sandhagen, and lost that fight (he did look quite good in it though). He's pretty aggressive and has a decent set of skills, so he's not without a chance.
The odds are quite even, with Yan being a slight favourite, which I think is fair.
339  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: March 05, 2024, 09:47:53 PM
Sean O'Malley's BJJ contest he presented he can grapple (...)

Thanks for sharing. Yeah, I've seen some footage of O'Malley's grappling training and he's not a novice.
We like to assume that if someone is great in striking, then they must suck on the ground, but the times you could get to the top of UFC ranks by being good only on one level are long gone. O'Malley wouldn't be so dominant in his stand-up game if he didn't have high confidence in his takedown defence and ground game.


As for the odds, I think Almeida could be a good bet, currently, he's only a slight favourite against Blaydes but I'd give him at least 70% chances.
Looks like bookies don't value Poirier too high with x2.85 odds. In my estimation Saint-Denis is a favourite, but only a slight one. Benoit looked impressive in his last fights but hasn't yet fought any top names.
340  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hey! it's $50k today. on: March 05, 2024, 09:08:47 PM
Well I think the market just took a wild twist again as the price has dropped drastically to almost 58k and that's just how volatile Bitcoin and crypto is.
(...)

I don't think we went as low as $58k today, at least not yet.
According to coingecko, the lowest today was $60.8k, but the data could be different depending on the source and methodology.
Anyhow, this topic is a great example of how weird and unstable investors' emotions can get. OP has started it less than a month ago and everyone was happy and excited that we crossed the $50k mark, and now, when bitcoin is over $60k - a lot of people get sad and miserable.
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