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1221  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: June 20, 2023, 04:11:08 PM
Binance własnie ogłosiło ze zamyka swoje usługi w Holandii,

Poważnie? Nic do mnie nie dotarło. To spory news. Co jest powodem? Na jakiej zasadzie takie zamknięcie wygląda? Że po prostu likwidują oddział a użytkownicy dalej mogą używać, czy będą blokować użytkowników z holandii tak, jak starają się blokować tych z USA?

Tez o tym wczesniej nie slyszalem, ale teraz czytam ze licencja o ktora sie starali zostala im odmowiona, wiec beda sie musieli wycofac z NL.
Co gorsze, czytam tez ze Francja postawila im zarzuty prania pieniedzy o wysokiej wartosci ("aggravated money laundering"):
https://coingeek.com/binance-flees-netherlands-faces-aggravated-money-laundering-probe-in-france/

Nie wyglada to zbyt pieknie dla Binance. Jesli dostaja po d*pie z kazdej strony, to nawet lojalni klienci moga zaczac opuszczac statek.
1222  Economy / Reputation / Re: I've been hacked (Electrum 4.3.2) on: June 20, 2023, 03:55:35 PM
I just received a piece of great news from the Yo!Mix team.
I honestly do not know how to phrase it so I am just going to quote what they've said here.
(...)
The generosity of both Coinomize and Yo!Mix team for understanding my situation and what had happened; I am forever in their debt.
The same goes for numerous members of this forum who pushed me not to give up.

Always great to see an ugly situation turning into a happy ending and congrats on settling the issue!
I think the way you dealt with this adversity actually increased your reputation on this forum, and you probably are more focussed on wallet security than before. And it's definitely a good PR for both, Yo!Mix and Coinomize teams, as they showed some empathy and understanding, which should be appreciated by their current and potential customers. Who knows, maybe the hacker will use their services himself haha
Anyhow, sounds a bit like a win-win from the reputation perspective (not necessarily from the financial one).
1223  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A hilarious video that shows so many persons ignorance about bitcoin on: June 19, 2023, 09:37:29 PM
And you forgot if nowadays staged videos are everywhere, what are you see on a video isn't actually real.

There's a chance someone become dumb on purpose because they don't want to reveal themselves to know about Bitcoin or express themselves are Bitcoin holders.

I believe there's someone still never heard of word Bitcoin especially they live in a country where the government is strict e.g. North Korea.

Yeah, most viral videos are probably staged, but I don't think this is the case with this one. When you live in a densely populated city, it's not hard to find a few people willing to be interviewed and then cherry-pick the funniest (or most stupid) answers. And it's probably cheaper too, as with staged videos, the "actors" would likely want to have their cut.

As for Bitcoin's recognition, there are loads of people who are familiar with its name, but don't know pretty much anything else and are clueless about its value.
1224  Economy / Gambling / Re: Using ToS against users normal? on: June 19, 2023, 09:26:12 PM
Terms of service in any regulated site is really long and you need to spend for at least 30 minutes to read an entire rules. The question is, how regular you read the whole terms? everyday? every week? every month? it's time wasting if your life is only used to read the casino terms.

Usually a regulated casino terms is similar to each other, they will ask to submit KYC including ask video or live, if you don't want to fulfill it, you will not able to withdraw your big winnings.

Any regulated, law-compliant casino would not be able to pull any nasty tricks on their players via changes to ToS, as the law would usually offer protection to the players, or at least their deposited funds.
And for non-regulated ones, operating from exotic jurisdictions, regular studying of their ToS is probably pointless, as they could either change them whenever they see fit, or even ignore their own rules, as you unlikely will ever be able to take any legal actions, so it's all about trust and reputation.
1225  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting strategy question on: June 19, 2023, 09:11:01 PM
it's true, if you don't want to lose money while gambling the best solution is to stop.(...)

So the strategy you have to do is manage your finances in each game, don't let your money run out in just one game. Because luck when playing gambling is not only in one game, you can get big wins after experiencing several defeats or vice versa.

So if the best strategy is to stop, then why did you carry on and advise people to "manage their finances" to not run out in one game? Will that advice make them any less likely to lose? Or is it just to waste more time together with money?


Betting is all about luck, because the chance of winning is only a few percent of the total money you bet.

That's not true, you could place bets with 99% chance of winning. More important factor to consider is the house edge.
1226  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: SEC vs Binance on: June 19, 2023, 08:59:48 PM

Quote
Instead, we were able to reach a Court-ordered agreement with the SEC that allows us to continue our ordinary course business.
What does this statement really mean?
What is ordinary course business in this context.
Doesn't it mean normal trading and other things but not related to staking and other activities why SEC classified them as securities?

That means that their funds won't get frozen and they will continue to operate, i.e. conduct their normal operations. Of course, I imagine that will all the panic probably most of the US customers decided to withdraw (you can't blame them), so the level of activity of Binance US is probably just a fraction of what it used to be. But at least they can carry on trading until the court rules otherwise.
1227  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting strategy question on: June 19, 2023, 06:04:27 PM
Basically if you want to not lose money gambling you need to either never gamble, or stop gambling once you have won more than what you have gambled so far.
The key reason that triggered one to either continue betting or stop permanently is profits and loss. It demonstrates the fundamental requirements of gambling; earning more than expected will only bring forth the quality greed, and I would not welcome losses on my bet games. I'd rather stop than keep gambling since it will never cease unless we make a firm decision to stop. Our minds are wired in such a way that we become addicted to whatever activities provide us with food. Gambling without setting daily limits will result in huge losses. Gambling is not a viable strategy for making extra cash.

There's a popular saying among hopeless gambling addicts that the worst thing that happened to them was their first win, so there's a lot of truth to what you wrote.
Then again, if you are aware of how human brains operate and what causes addictions and degenerate behaviour - then it's way easier to keep your gambling activities under control, i.e. don't gamble for entertainment and only consider it when you spot an opportunity where the edge is on your side.
1228  Economy / Speculation / Re: You wanted decoupling, you got it. on: June 18, 2023, 10:31:49 PM
Well, taking time periods to compare two series of events can lead to arbitrary correlations:

Nick Cage Movies Vs. Drownings, and More Strange (but Spurious) Correlations

The article is hidden behind paywall, but I get your point. The fact that there are some accidental correlations is not a reason to dismiss all of them though.

Bitcoin is the best hedge against inflation - has any major asset given a better return since 2009? It not only protects against inflation but outperforms it with a much higher return in terms of the strongest fiat currencies, let alone compared to currencies of countries such as Venezuela or Argentina. Of course, there will always be those who bought at the peak of the bull market and sold because they shit their trousers when the market started to fall, but every inflation hedge has ups and downs.

I can't agree with this. Sure it performed great when you take the entry price of zero (or sub 1 USD) in 2009, But someone who bought in say 2 years ago and is witnessing BTC trading at a much lower nominal price (not to mention the real value, i.e adjusted for inflation), would probably disagree, even if they haven't "shat their trousers" and are still holding ("you only lose if you sell" is a joke).
To say something is a great hedge against inflation, you'd expect there to be a positive correlation: the higher the inflation rate - the higher the price. Is this the case for Bitcoin?

And why do you want to compare it only to "major assets", was BTC a major asset in 2009?
1229  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is buying BTC now, the best option ??? on: June 18, 2023, 10:11:25 PM
Yes, I think with the DCA strategy, I expect it to grow from time to time, but I only look at the history of the 4 year cycle, so I think it would be very appropriate if we do DCA for 4 years.
I know that dips are buying dips and we have to understand about normal market movements when there is a dips that lead to crashes it's the right time to buy dips when it's the most appropriate moment, but I can't do that because from a financial point of view at mine I just prefer DCA even if it's small at $10 but at least bitcoin holdings grow weekly and don't need to buy dips for some other reason.
With a note by buying dips I think it's a good result they buy every dips they just need to manage their time and finances to be ready when the market crashes again.

But if you're hoping that Bitcoin's price movement will remain cyclical and we'll still have the 4-year cycles in the future, and if you intend to do the DCA for 4 years and then (I assume) you intend to sell - then wouldn't it make much more sense to (at very least) apply some sort of DCA/buy-the-dip hybrid strategy, where you either:
- make regular DCA purchases but only in periods when Bitcoin is cheap (according to the 4-year cycle metrics), or
- keep making regular purchases throughout the entire 4-year period, but increase $ amounts when BTC is trading low and decrease when it's high.

Sounds like the only argument for doing the classic DCA is just convenience.
1230  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Gary, tell us what is Ethereum? on: June 18, 2023, 09:52:21 PM
Ethereum Redefined: JPMorgan Proposes Unique Categorization:
"As the digital currency landscape continues to evolve, it has become evident that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and other U.S. regulatory bodies are eager to redefine the government’s approach to regulating cryptocurrencies. However, despite the SEC’s lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase and calls for SEC restructuring from the Grand Old Party (GOP), a clear way forward still seems distant. Adding to the complexity gripping the blockchain industry, a team of JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou has suggested that Congress place Ethereum (ETH) in a new “other category” instead of the rigid classifications proposed by the SEC for tokens like MATIC, SOL, ALGO, and others."

Thanks for sharing. But I don't quite understand their idea. "Other category" of what? Is it supposed to be another category of securities, or something other than securities/commodities? The latter would make much more sense, but now the question would be if it's not security nor commodity, would it be outside of SEC's jurisdiction? If so, would it require the creation of a separate regulatory body? Because I don't think this is likely to happen. And if SEC was to keep their authority over crypto despite them not being securities - then it's just handing them an extra powers, which is not something I am in favour of.
1231  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is hodling top 10 Marketcap coins a good tactic? on: June 18, 2023, 09:37:02 PM
It's hardly ever a good tactic. Altcoin pump is usually delayed compared to Bitcoin and alts are the first to drop. They also tend to tank harder than BTC + the composition of the top 10 keeps changing over time, so if you want to stick to this tactic, you'd have to rebalance periodically, which also generates costs/losses.
Meanwhile, despite all the bearish news, Bitcoin's dominance has risen to over 48%. I remember some experts saying around a year ago that BTC will unlikely cross 40% and that it'll be losing dominance over time.
Depends, i remember when eth was high on the marketcap, people thought it was too high to move as much as lower caps. Turned out that there was so much room to grow and ETH ended up being the most profitable altcoin, even when it started from top. Top was relative to todays marketcap, but we don't know what the cap for highest marketcap will be.

If you're referring to the time when ETH was getting really close to Bitcoin's No. 1 position and the "flippening" looked like a probable scenario, when BTC had ~38% market dominance compared to ETH's 31% - then I have a slightly different memory of that time. I remember that had a massive positive impact on ETH's price as a lot of people, who didn't really care about ETH too much, started buying it just to hedge against the mentioned flippening (there was a huge hype around that, with flippening-watch websites popping up etc.). So I don't think that ETH's fall from that 31% was a result of people thinking the market cap was too high, but the other way around - because it was getting high, it allowed it to get even higher to the peak of 31%. But eventually, all hypes die out.
1232  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: SEC vs Binance on: June 18, 2023, 09:14:29 PM

That's some positive news indeed, as otherwise Binance US operations would get completely destroyed. But not sure if we should read this as SEC softening their stance and looking for compromise, as Binance, in their tweet, referred to it as a "Court-ordered agreement". So it could be that the court forced SEC into accepting that agreement, rather then it resulting from SEC's good will.

Here's what Binance themselves had to say about that:

https://twitter.com/BinanceUS/status/1670077275419869186
Quote
We want to provide an update on the current battle http://Binance.US finds itself in with the SEC. We are pleased to inform you that the Court did not grant the SEC’s request for a TRO and freeze of assets on our platform which was clearly unjustified by both the facts and the law.

Instead, we were able to reach a Court-ordered agreement with the SEC that allows us to continue our ordinary course business. There has never been any evidence presented by the SEC concerning mis-use of customer assets. In fact, the SEC lawyers conceded in Court earlier this week, when asked by the Judge, that they had no evidence suggesting that any such thing had occurred.

The SEC’s request would have effectively shuttered our business, which is consistent with the agency’s continued attempts to kill the crypto industry by any means, even by making allegations that are not supported by the facts.

This fight has damaged our business and our reputation but not our fighting spirit or our resolve to defend ourselves against unwarranted charges and “regulation by enforcement” tactics that do not belong in our system of justice.

We look forward to continuing to defend ourselves in court.
1233  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: [RAFFLE] Utopia - P2P Ecosystem | Free Bitcoin Raffle Weekly 💎 Round 16 on: June 18, 2023, 08:45:45 PM
Bitcointalk Username: pawel7777
Utopia Public Key: 7949B3BCB5687CA4E8861C193409B9109C24F422517B5980D5C9270F96ED301A
BTC Address: bc1q79vqvnghljgu926g7gtuhnncq560kc24cur43t
Message Deep Link (Chat link): https://utopia.im/d53b4431fd604e2f0261792444797aa4?tid=469097475474008315
Slot No: 09
1234  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is buying BTC now, the best option ??? on: June 17, 2023, 12:47:18 PM
We can never accurately predict market cycles so we need to do DCA to avoid buying all investment funds at a certain price at once, because according to our predictions that the market price has reached the most dips but the actual price is much lower than the price we predicted, I think nothing the best analysis of the DCA strategy for adding assets to the crypto portfolio because we have distributed investment funds gradually, even if the next bearish market occurs we still have some funds from the opportunity to buy at the lowest price.

There's no single, superior strategy that would work best for everyone, if that were a case, everyone would be using it already and there will be no need for discussion.
DCA is no different. While it is the most convenient and does not require any price analysis, it does not guarantee the best results. I've seen some analysis some time ago saying that the "buying the dip" BTC investors noted on average better results than those using the DCA - but that's not to say that this will be true in the future.
With dip buying, you don't have to time the market perfectly, all it takes to roughly identify where the price is, i.e. if we break the new ATH, we're probably not at the bottom, or if we drop >60% from the ATH, it's possibly a good time to start buying.
And it's not like we cannot combine those 2 strategies - do DCA but withhold from buying (or reduce the amount) when we're likely at the top of the hype etc.
1235  Economy / Speculation / Re: You wanted decoupling, you got it. on: June 17, 2023, 12:31:02 PM
There is no decoupling, the same way there is no coupling. You can only say that in short periods of time. If you look at the big picture, there is none.

Depends on how you want to look at things (i.e. take into account crypto volatility or not) and choosing a period to analyze is judgmental. The main reason people considered BTC to be coupled with stock markets is that in recent years (say from around 2017 onwards), the price of both reacted in similar ways to changes in the market's conditions. And the initial expectation for Bitcoin was to be a hedge against inflation, so the negative correlation was expected, which was not really the case.
1236  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-06-10] Forbes: ‘Bloodbath’—Sudden $1 Trillion Crypto Crash Sparks Fresh... on: June 17, 2023, 12:16:37 PM
but that's the crux of decentralized currency's raison d'etre, is it not?

In theory - yes, in practice - crypto is most commonly used as a form of investment, so the ability to exchange it for fiat/other goods is crucial for that purpose.
It still has the potential of becoming fuel for an alternative economy if the traditional fiat system gets overly restrictive, but that won't be easy to achieve.


unless it becomes impossible to simply give central bank currency to other people without even the slightest risk of the transaction being delayed and/or reversed, exchanging said currencies for Bitcoin (or whatever else) will always be possible, whether the so-called authorities like it or not

Banks already have systems of flagging suspicious transactions, plus, high penalties for illegal/unlicenced P2P trading could make it simply too risky for the sellers.

in a world where that becomes truly impossible (at least in practical terms, and we're for sure getting closer to it), the actual currency itself loses it's status as well as it's value, because it is not a meaningful means of exchange any more (which is far more serious than simply losing relative value to other tokens for trading). It ceases to become proper money in the most fundamental sense, and it will hence be rejected by those who should apparently be subjected to it

one way or another, the instrument with the best money properties will win out.

Sure, but this rule only works when you have the freedom to choose an alternative to such failed currency. In a scenario where crypto trading is delegalised, I can't imagine it replacing fiat, even if the use of fiat is massively restricted. Especially if fiat is still good enough to use for the purchase of government-approved goods.
1237  Local / Polski / Re: Ogólne rozmowy na temat kampanii sygnatur on: June 17, 2023, 11:44:45 AM
A co w przypadku, w którym robisz bounty a nie sygnaturke i płacone masz w tokenie, który jeszcze nigdzie nie jest listowany i nie wiadomo czy będzie a co za tym idzie nie ma żadnej ceny, do której można się odwołać?   Wtedy praca o zapłacie 0 i zysk dopiero jak wejdzie na giełdę i da się sprzedać w podatku pit-38?

Tak bym zgadywał. Jeżeli masz dochód w tokenach o zerowej wartości, to tak naprawdę nie masz żadnego dochodu, przynajmniej w rozumieniu podatkowym, więc ewentualny podatek płatny byłby dopiero przy sprzedaży na PLN (pit 38).

(...) albo prosić o indywidualną interpretację US (która nie jest wiążąca, słyszałem o przypadkach, w których ktoś otrzymał interpretację, postępował zgodnie z nią a potem dostał karę, za złe rozliczanie)

Też słyszałem o takich przypadkach, ale chyba da się wtedy od takiej kary odwołać.
1238  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: SEC vs Binance on: June 17, 2023, 11:33:21 AM
I don't fully agree with you pawel7777: although as western economic powers it is logical that they are similar in many aspects, and North-American cultural influence over Europe is undeniable (but let's don't forget that vice versa also), there are many economic, social and political conflicting interests between them, and that's the reason why the UK left the EU (Brexited), because their interests fit better with the Commonwealth's than with the Union's.

So I think that you are mixing things up, and if Binance's way is eventually blocked in Europe I don't think it will be due to the influence of the US.

Of course, different countries have different interests, but strong countries always have some power to impose their will onto weaker ones. The Russian-Ukraine war is a good example, it was obvious that Germany and France initially were pushing for peace talks and were hoping for things to return back to normal, but that wasn't in line with US's goals. To make their arguments more convincing, US blew up Nordstream 2 baltic pipe, sending a message to Germany that going back to old ways of buying gas from Russia is no longer an option.
I'm not saying that Europe is totally controlled by the US, but it's undeniable that the US has been pretty effective in forcing their way in the most important issues.

So the question is what's the real reason behind the crypto crackdown. i.e. if they decided that crypto is a major threat to their financial system, then they won't allow the crypto industry to just move and bloom in other countries. Plus, even without US pressure, other countries could come to the same conclusion and start seeing crypto as a threat.
1239  Economy / Services / Re: Fallen on hard times, need to work, campaign management, escrow service... on: June 16, 2023, 10:41:20 PM
I'm sure you're aware of that, but you should keep an eye on the signature campaigns, I think some of them are currently open (if not, still worth monitoring as things change quickly):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=615953.msg62387617#msg62387617

It may be hard for you, given the lack of activity, but if you share your history in application post(s), who knows, maybe you'll get in (your green trust works in your favour).
You won't survive on that alone, but that's still better than nothing and should not consume too much of your time.

Good luck.
1240  Economy / Speculation / Re: You wanted decoupling, you got it. on: June 16, 2023, 10:26:39 PM
As the name of the topic says, everybody wanted decoupling from stocks a few years back

Yeeeah, but not like this  Cry
This is not the direction everyone was hoping for. But who knows, maybe it could work too. If investors worldwide stop perceiving BTC as being correlated with stock markets, maybe it'll be easier to break away the other way around in the future.
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