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1041  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: August 05, 2023, 08:18:50 AM
Seeking lack of interest in this weeks event. Tokeweed time spent on creating event description post is wasted  Grin

The only fight that I would watch the main event fight between Sandhagen and Font, because he (Sandhagen) is going to be Sterling or Dvalishvili next opponent. Sterling faces O’Malley in two weeks, imho Sean gonna win, and Sterling dont want to fight Dvalishvili as they are friends and teammates.

It's just a UFC Fight Night, not the normal pay-per-view event, so by design, it's meant to be a lower calibre. Still a good way to promote lesser-known fighters.
If you believe O'Malley will defeat Sterling and you're willing to bet on that, you can expect a decent pay out, as Sterling is a massive favourite. And it's not without reason, O'Malley, as talented as he is, struggled against Yan (many think he actually lost that fight) and will have a hard time defending Sterling's takedowns.
1042  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Why do 90% of Bettors Lose in Sports Betting in the Long-term? on: August 04, 2023, 09:41:01 PM
In addition, I think that a common mistake among bettors is not following risk management. If at some point the player decides to increase the size of the bet, and it will be increased relative to his gaming budget, then this will violate the general concept and, in case of loss, will increase the losses. Successful betting requires strict adherence to the rules, otherwise the player will lose his game deposit at a distance.

Let's not pretend that gambling is a legit way of earning regular income. If one was to apply logic, cold calculation, risk management, rules etc. they'd end up with a conclusion that it's best to not gamble at all and focus on other, more meaningful things.
The only way to pull a profit long-term is to search for anomalies that would shift the edge to your side, but those are rare by definition.
1043  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-07-05] Bloomberg: BlackRock Wants to Make It Cheaper to Trade Bitcoin... on: August 04, 2023, 09:34:18 PM
BlackRock is one of the largest investment firms in the States and has their hands in EVERYTHING! If that kind of company could make trading cheaper and acquisition easier then they're big enough to bring in some very big investors (companies that spend massive amounts of money)..

BlackRock is not just "one of the largest", they're THE largest, and not only in the US, but in the world. Vanguard is the 2nd largest and is not very far behind.
Both are absolute giants and the amounts of assets they manage each exceed the GDP of the vast majority of the countries.

For that reason, many are concerned if it's indeed good news if they end up dominating Bitcoin market. But there's not much anyone can do about it anyway.
1044  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: August 04, 2023, 09:22:49 PM
A think that Ankalaev wrestling skills are much better than Blachowicz and it would be easier for Magomed to submit Pereira. We really dont know how good Pereiras wrestling skills are (because he hasnt faced a good opponent yet), but something tells me that a any man with a name Magomev that is into martial arts can get him to the ground and choke. Maybe this is a created vision that Pereira is only a kickboxer that bother me to objectively evaluate Pereira, but I cant seem him wrestling. 

Lol, that's the thing, people assume that anyone from Dagestan must be a great wrestler. Although Ankalaev has wrestling and sambo background, his fighting style looks nothing like say Khabib or Islam. He clearly prefers stand-up striking.

As for Pereira, given his age, I don't think he'll be able to improve his ground game massively. He'll be focussed on takedown defence and the ability to get back up if taken down.

I'd much rather see Prochazka fighting Pereira, but Ankalaev deserves that fight more.
1045  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 51% attack on: August 04, 2023, 09:01:14 PM
/snip/
/snip/

Thanks both, it all makes sense now. I had a slightly wrong idea of how nodes validate transactions. Every day is a school day.

Only in 2014 did a company called Ghash.io get close to that amount, with a total mining power of 38.24% at the time. The company no longer exists, and no one has ever gotten close to that percentage since.

As mentioned before, ghash.io actually went above the 50% and it wasn't the first time that happened (it was the last time though). Hashpower distribution improved a lot since then, at least officially, it's hard to know for sure whether different pools are actually independent of each other.
1046  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Minimum Age to gamble on: August 04, 2023, 08:34:11 PM
Yet again, some underaged at 16 yo know how to earn money and how hard money comes, and there are those who are, lets say 25+, still leave with their parents and on their receipt, and all they do is playing video games. Is it fair than that first cant, but second person is allowed to gamble. Person matures at different age. Wont it be more fair to let run tests and only they make a decision, if a person is allowed to gamble or not.

So what do you suggest exactly? That there shouldn't be any minimal age at all for gambling, or maybe for anything? Sure, you're not wrong in saying people mature differently (some never, and some get stupider as they age), but as long as we don't have any metric or a way to measure maturity, we have to rely on arbitrary things like the minimum age. Even if it's not perfect, it's better than nothing.
1047  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: SEC vs Binance on: August 02, 2023, 10:14:26 PM
I have only one explanation. While the Binance exchange is under attack in all countries, and in European countries, all countries are transitioning to the application of the MICA law, and in a year and a half, all countries of the European Union will have uniform legislation. Most likely, the exchange plans to wait out the hard times, working in other countries, and then try again to get a license to work throughout Europe according to the MICA law.

"Waiting out the hard times" implies it's Binance's decision to withdraw from those markets, while everything looks like they are being pushed out. And if they are - I don't think MICA or any other regulations would help them to come back. If countries don't want Binance around (i.e. because it might be associated with the Chinese political agenda) they'll always find a way to keep them out.
1048  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Certified Bitcoin Professional on: August 02, 2023, 09:56:31 PM
No one has the full knowledge of bitcoin, talk more to having an institute that issues out certificate on bitcoin course. Bitcoin is very broad that it can't be learnt for three years.

I think there are quite a lot of people with comprehensive knowledge of Bitcoin, you could find many even on this forum. In it's nature, I don't think it's that complicated. The real difficulties arise when you want to make changes to the protocol and introduce new features etc.

Nobody will care of your certificate if you want to be employed to a company because the employer believes on what you gat in you as bitcoin is not theory but practical especially the programmers and dev.

This certificate is not intended to turn anyone into a Bitcoin developer, but to certify that the holder has an understanding of how Bitcoin works. Just like you can be licenced to drive a car without understanding the technicalities of the combustion engine etc.
1049  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: August 02, 2023, 09:46:01 PM
Actually, this is the 1st time seeing the BMF belt and it was so black you can surely call it "Black Mother Fu_ _ _r" but surely if the UFC can really enlighten us on if they will make the BMF title a thing, can every fighter can go in different weight class to challenge the BMF title holder and as for Kevin Holland he said he wants the belt that if the belt is not in his division be would likely change division to have a fight on who is holding the BMF, but surely as the BMF right now it was 1st for Jorge Masvidal and pass on to Justin Gaethje as it have return back again, so maybe the UFC will make this a thing now,

There are a couple of ways they could spin it into a real thing, but they'd need to attach some special rules to it, to prevent it from getting merged with the title belt. i.e. they could make a rule that you could only win it by KO/TKO/submission, and if the fight is won by decision, the belt gets vacated and UFC fans could vote which next fight will be for the belt - to prevent it being locked in one weight class. Just a thought.

Well, I am looking at his movement now it was surely totally different from the Tony Ferguson we used to know, and love, Tony Ferguson now has a lot of openings and is pretty much slow now, and against Bobby Green, he likely has an age aswell and getting there Bobby Green looks absolutely the same, while Tony Ferguson is just a fossil or just a husk of his old self, pretty much his name might be profitable but given those losing streak the people will eventually get bored and might not watch him anymore,

Can't disagree. You can tell something is not quite right just by looking at him. I don't think it's just the age thing. There are some rumors that he has some mental issues, and watching some of his interviews you can tell he holds some resentment against UFC/journalists and maybe a whole world.
But maybe changing the environment and moving to a different organisation could work well for him. He could get some easier fights and strangely enough, he could even get a better pay.
1050  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 51% attack on: August 02, 2023, 09:19:11 PM
Nodes will follow the chain with the most valid accumulated work. The whole point of a 51% attack is that a malicious miner can produce blocks faster than the rest of the network. So while the rest of the network mines the original transaction and x number of blocks on top of it, the 51% attacker can mine an alternate chain in secret which double spends the coins in the original transaction back to themselves and x+1 number of blocks on top of it. Once you have released the goods or whatever, the 51% attacker can then broadcast their alternate chain they were mining in secret. Assuming that this chain remains consensus valid (and there is no reason it wouldn't be), then nodes will immediately switch to this chain upon learning about it, since it is longer than the honest chain and therefore has more accumulated work. At that point the original transaction and all its confirmations disappear from the network, and are replaced by the double spend transaction.

Nodes do not police which chains are "honest" or "dishonest", and really, have no way of making that judgement. They simply follow the valid chain with the most accumulated work.

Thanks again for clarifying. Technical aspects of the network have never been my strong suit. Just another daft question: If nodes do not police the chain, then why is it advised for nodes to have a full copy of the blockchain? I always imagined it was for situations like the one discussed, to prevent malicious miners from propagating invalid chains.
1051  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: August 02, 2023, 05:09:55 PM
First time hearing someone has 10 fight contract. With UFC bondage deals (contract) 10 fight contract is like slavery.

I think I based that on some interview with a young fighter complaining about UFC forcing him to sign an initial contract of ten fights for some ridiculously low money in a range of $5k per fight. But again, I'm quoting from memory and that was at least over a decade ago, so there's a chance I got it twisted, plus, surely a lot has changed since then.
1052  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Certified Bitcoin Professional on: August 01, 2023, 09:39:54 PM
I would never pay any money for such bullsh*t.
Passing one exam and buying one course doesn't mean that you are a true professional. There must be a 4 year long university program for becoming an expert in cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. The participants in such program must practice their skills for months or even years. Learning theory is only 20%, building skills by practice must be 80% of the entire crypto/blockchain education.
I guess that those "crypto organizations" OP is mentioning have found an easy way to make some easy money by selling "certificates" to a bunch of gullible crypto noobs.

The purpose of such certificates is not to turn anyone into a full-blown Bitcoin developer, but to certify that you have a basic understanding of what Bitcoin is and how it works.
I'm guessing their target group is professional firms wanting to train their employees to help them better understand what is all about if their jobs require any kind of dealings with crypto. Or it might be a good way to boost up your CV with something that'll make you stand out from others.
1053  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: August 01, 2023, 09:29:08 PM
The BMF is not really that important but I think some fighters really want to claim it just to be called the BMF, for some reason Conor McGregor wants some additional belt on top of the Championship belt, Many belt much better,

The BMF belt will have a short life if Justin gets the title fight, which he should and that's what he's after. So if the BMF is put on the line it'll get unified with the lightweight title. If UFC want it to be a thing, they'll have to come up with some special rules on how it is to be passed on.

He is on a 6 losing streak now, for sure it is really up to him if he really likes to still fight then he likely is free to do so, it is just me I would likely not forcing him I am really waiting for the day he would likely lay the gloves off that was all,

As I said, he's past his prime, there's no question about that, but if he still feels like he have a couple more fights in him - why not?
And what people tend to forget that 6 losing streak was to guys from the very top, while his 12-win streak was earned mostly on low/average-rated guys. So looking just at wins/losses record can give you a bit distorted picture.

I really looks like his contract is over. UFC either give 3 or 6 fight contracts. If we divide his UFC record to 3 or 6, it would be a round number, which makes he has no more fight. Maybe UFC will offer him sort of a farewell fight, as he said he has lost current mostly due to accidental eye poke (but we have seen the fight and Tony was dominated in every round).

Are you sure about that 3/6 fights thing? I vaguely recall some fighter saying that they got an initial contract for 10 fights, but that was looong time ago, so it might have changed.
And sure, if Tony decided to retire and wanted to do a farewell fight, I'm sure UFC would get that arranged. But it doesn't seem like that's what he's after.

Lewis is pretty old at this point. I don’t know if it is going to be a great performance from him after this. I suspect he might decline in terms of success.

Age is not as important in the heavyweight as it is in the lower divisions. Lewis is still an exciting fighter and that's what the UFC heavyweight desperately needs right now, especially when it's probable that Jon Jones may retire after the Stipe fight.
I'm sure UFC will make Lewis 'some' offer, but it might be worse than what he previously had, and he's at the end of his career so might want to squeeze as much as possible, so if he gets a better offer from elsewhere, he'll probably go for that.
1054  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2023-07-24] Market Insider: Bitcoin could soar to $180,000 before... on: August 01, 2023, 09:01:10 PM
It amazes me that places like Argentina don't have a huge presence in bitcoin. It isn't as if bitcoin's value as an inflation hedge is hidden.

Don't they though? A quick google search suggests Argentina has one of the highest crypto adoption rates, which would make sense considering they had some restrictions on foreign exchanges.

ETFs aren't going to bring it anywhere close to that level by themselves - that's what people thought would happen last time (institutions adoption bitcoin) but in reality it was only a couple of custodians creating these services for other people to use that (among other things) drove traders to make extreme purchases and make a short price spike last time around.

Do you think giants like BlackRock would even bother to file for spot ETF if they didn't know there is a demand for it? I don't expect fireworks but it will have a positive effect on the price, it might be spread over a longer period of time though. And it's not like the price would be bumped by the ETF alone. The current demand is still there, so it's just adding a "little bit" extra on the top. And coupled with reduced supply from the miners after the halving - that's a strong case for a bull market.
1055  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: August 01, 2023, 08:48:07 PM
kolejny miesiąc w historii BTC dobiegł końca i jeśli spojrzeć na lipiec'23 pod względem ceny, zakończył się on niewielkim minusem 4 punktów procentowych w porównaniu do czerwca'23 - drugim czerwonym miesiącem w tym roku, po maju



Ciekawe to zestawienie, nie widziałem tego nigdy wcześniej. Fajnie obrazuje perspektywe, nawet nie przypuszczałem że 2023 wygląda tak dobrze jeśli chodzi o stabilność wzrostów.
Mógłbyś podesłać linka do źródła?

1056  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 51% attack on: August 01, 2023, 08:31:57 PM
There have been a number of occasions in the past where a single pool has controlled >51% of the hashrate, but they have not used this to attack bitcoin.

Deepbit in 2011 - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=26656
BTCGuild in 2013 - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=152296.0
GHash.IO in 2014 - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=645056.0
/snip/


Thanks for sharing. I thought ghash.io was the only time the pool went above 50%. I got into Bitcoin in late 2013 ao wasn't around when the first two times happened.

I guess we can draw the conclusion that the simplest and cheapest way to perform the attack is not to buy or produce enough hashpower, but to create a pool (or few pools pretending to be independent) and attract enough miners.

The 51% attacker can then mine an alternate chain to replace the last 20 blocks and include in that chain a transaction which sends the same 100 BTC back to one of their own addresses.

But that new chain would get rejected by the majority of the network, meaning nodes, right?
1057  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Certified Bitcoin Professional on: July 31, 2023, 08:45:47 PM
Andreas Antonopoulos lost a lot in my eyes by going full leftist in some of his tweets. I've no idea what is he up to now.
The certificate was designed for professionals from various industries to get them familiar of what Bitcoin actually is and how it works.
It's probably not very useful for anyone wanting to dive much deeper into it. You could probably learn more by experimenting yourself (i.e. playing with testnet) and talking to people on technical boards.

SEC chief G.Gensler was a bitcoin lecturer at MIT a few years ago... teaching kids about bitcoin.. years later even gensler cant decide what bitcoin is..
just goes to show how poor even known institutions dont really know what they are talking about

In all fairness, I think he explicitly said that Bitcoin is not a security. He was undecided on other cryptos.
1058  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 51% attack on: July 31, 2023, 08:30:36 PM
Not many people were mining with high-tech mining machines when Bitcoin was released (2009, if I'm not mistaken).
Thus, bitcoin was vulnerable to a 51% attack by a big company or an individual with huge resources.

But was there any such attack on Bitcoin around that time?



Why attack something that did not yet have any traction? After the release in 2009 Bitcoin had many vulnerabilities comparing to which 51% attack did not sound all that scary. For example, that one time, in the block 74638, 92 billion bitcoins came into existence, you can read more about that here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=822.0

I've never heard of any actual 51% attack on Bitcoin, but at one point (very briefly) a mining pool called ghash.io went above 50% of the total hashpower, but they had no intention of attacking the network and took steps to discourage individual miners from joining their pool.
1059  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: July 31, 2023, 08:19:45 PM
After I saw this one that Conor McGregor wants the BMF belt I surely doubted that he can win against Dustin Poirier or Justin Geathje, for sure, even if this is a huge profit for the organization because it is Conor McGregor, but yeah Gaethje doesn't want someone that is on drugs well I guest Justin Gaethje just don't want Conor to be involved anymore but for me, I think if Gaethje and McGregor fight now Justin Gaethje will be victorious,

McGregor will be fighting Chandler next, I believe the fight is already contracted even if there's no date set up yet. It won't be until 2024 as McGregor will have to return to the USADA testing pool, which have six-month testing periods (that could be waived in exceptional circumstances).

The BMF belt is retarded. I don't like seeing UFC moving further away from the sport towards some WWE-type entertainment. 


I'd likely want to see him announce his retirement,

Why though? If he wants to carry on, so be it. I don't subscribe to the opinion that you should quit at your peak or shortly after. Let him retire on his own terms.
1060  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Why do 90% of Bettors Lose in Sports Betting in the Long-term? on: July 31, 2023, 06:05:35 PM
I'm interested in sports betting in particular because the house doesn't have a strictly defined mathematical edge, so it's possible for players to actually have an advantage if the odds are misplaced.
I agree, it would be a hard task to collate reliable data. I would definitely not rely on players' self-reported profitability, as they're often deluded about it, with most being at loss but thinking they're in a "break-even" position.

We could get 100% reliable data from the betting platforms themselves, but obviously they won't share it unless forced by the governments, i.e. in a similar fashion to CFD trading platforms in Europe having to clearly display the percentage of retail investors losing money.
I would guess that there are still enough to make it so like they have enough from both sides, that's the difference. Because while you play for the X team, some people bet on the Y team and you get the return of that, so you are not taking money from the book, you are taking money from the people who bet on the other side of your bet, or at least as much as the house can make it, sometimes they win money and sometimes they lose it.

This means on every bet, they are not just purely losing, they lose "some" but not all, and this is why they are so profitable. While you may end up losing all the time (or not) they are never losing all the time, they have a guarantee that people will bet on both sides which would make it better for them.

I'm not going to lie, I don't know how risk/operations management works "under the hood" of big betting sites, but I imagine it must be pretty complex.
The idea is simple for peer-to-peer betting sites, players bet against each other and the house gets its cut, so they don't care at all who wins or loses. But I don't think it's possible for P2P betting sites to offer fixed odds, I believe they have to be flexible as they don't know what the total pool will be when the bets are closed. That makes them less attractive to players.
In terms of non-P2P bookies, for them it's all about trying to figure out accurate odds and also to monitor their exposure to certain events. So when too much money is bet on one side of an event, they'd also be reducing the odds or, in some cases, they'd just lock such bet.
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