Multiplying the number of things that you need to back up tends to result in loss of funds, sooner or later.
Not when the backups are redundant. You can question the security value of my plan, but it will NOT make it more likely to fail. |
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I have a hard time believing that anyone who holds/controls large sums of bitcoin are going to keep it in places that can be identified as being owned by one person or entity (unless they are a public company or a government that has to make those kinds of disclosures).
If I were to hold any appreciable amount of Bitcoin (I do not, of course) I would set it up so that it was stored in a multisig cold storage setup (optionally with hardware wallets separately geo-located). But I would also backup the private keys for each address with <1BTC. No addresses would have more than, I dunno, 0.7BTC and all slightly different. But there would be a spreadsheet, created on an airgapped laptop, that was GPG encrypted that held those individual keys... You know... In case. I would have created detailed instructions on how to access all these Bitcoin (1. With hardware wallets, 2. With Seed Phrases and passwords 3. With individual private keys in the worst case scenario), and trained my wife, and eldest child on the procedure. But I do not have that sort of Bitcoin stash, so I just hold what I have on Coinbase. Plus if i DID have that sort of stash?? All those details up there? Different than what I (would) have really done. Or not? Nevermind... |
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So... this may already be invalidated... but I just noticed this on the 4 hour. But such low volume going into a weekend... Just a little weak attempt at mild hopium.  |
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An observation. The whole world is starting to see Bitcoin is a viable store of value, or perhaps a speculative instrument that should be SOLD . But either way "investors" are buying or selling... And yet:  There is no way that lightning is not taking a huge load off the base chain for transactional exchanges! People are using it for trade in Central America, Africa, America, Europe and Asia. And yet a 6 cent fee was 2x too much? |
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What you do not understand, and Jay assuredly does not understand, is that in the course of my past few replies to him, I have been trying to extricate myself from some large parts of that discussion as gracefully as I can without frankly telling him to get bent.
A simple observation. Get bent. <- 2 words. Trying to extricate yourself from large parts of that discussion gracefully? > 2 words. Just a thought? |
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caps lock.. again with the silly utopian dream
you mention people dont need direct connections to bitfinex..
try reading my coinbase example.. i have actually shown a scenario of your counter argument before you countered
people several hops away still need to have a balance provider connected to the exchange down the route.. and if there are millions of people many hops away you have to actually count the amount of value locked in to be able to facilitate all that .. do the maths. use a spreadsheet. work it out. surprise yourself
dont stay in the utopian dream people promised you of infinite payments guaranteed, flawlessly and free.. as those promises will break. so do the maths and realise how limited LN is and how easy it can bottleneck even with just 5% value of ONE exchange
i know you are the utopian dreamer that doesnt want to hear anything bad. you want to over promote it and blame any fault on users and not the network and dig your head in the sand when it comes to the bad stuff.. .. but many people want to be risk aware so that they can actually make an educated decision
but if you want to play ignorant to the liquidity problem of routes and hops of any distance.. then actually run some scenarios and dont just stick head in the sand screaming with a muffled voice "it works"
i know you mention multiple times in one paragraph you dont need a direct channel with bitfinex..
but care to run some scenarios like i mentioned and you will see i actually mentioned scenarios where you are not a direct channel to an exchange but several hops away from them. and i said go play them scenarios out too and see how far you get before problems arise
i know certain people dont like spoonfed numbers and instead play ignorant or deny the answer if the calculations were done for them.. pretending the calculations must be wrong or the numbers must be fake.. anything to ignore the problem and deny the problem.. . so i challenged you to go find out the numbers yourself so that its not spoon fed to be ignored but a lightbulb moment for yourself to actually have come to the answers yourself and realise the ultimate answer for yourself. then you cant just say i gave you meaningless numbers
You gave me meaningless numbers. That was easy to say, actually. How do i know? I have moved 10s of thousands of dollars back and forth to Bitfinex. My numbers are real... not theoretical. |
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Either technical hurdles, a perceived lack of demand, or an ideological difference. For example Coinbase has more than enough resources to add this. But Coinbase has never really been aligned with the values that lightning serves. Other similar organizations (such as Kraken, Bitfinex) have done it. And even the FOSS POS system BTCPayhas added it. Lightning payments are optimized for smaller amounts right now. So it makes sense if you sell t-shirts or gift cards. Or if your exchange deals in <$500 deposits/withdrawals. If I were to want to deposit $20k on Kraken I would not do it over lightning. But if I wanted to deposit $100 to buy some Monero? Then of course. Why pay for, and wait for confirmations on the base layer for a hundred bucks. I had two channels with BitFinex. they were HEAVILY used. I took part in routing an enourmous amount of value back and forth with those. But they were also only 2 million sats each so my routes were generally under $500 worth. So I honestly think it is a combination of some technical/demand hurdles (the base chain is still relatively cheap, in part thanks to lightning) as well as the ideological difference that clearly is why CB does not do it. EDIT - For some reason I unhid frankies response out of curiosity. He does not really get lightning. I am sure Bitfinex has locked up some bitcoin in their nodes... BUT the ydo not have to have AT ALL. They could have stood up their nodes and not locked a single satoshi in any channels, and instead just taken incoming connections. Then they would have 400BTC of liquidity possible on the INCOMING side. Once people made 400BTC worth of deposits that would be, then 400BTC potential for withdrawals. In reality the network probably does not only operate in one direction... so they would be incentivized to open channels for withdrawals from time to time. But these channels could be reused over and over in both directions. But they would not HAVE TO. They could open a third node and ONLY take incoming channels (which they WOULD get) and eventually that node, too, would be providing liquidity in both directions. Another silly mistake frank makes is assuming that to use Bitfinexes lightning nodes you would need to open a channel to them. Absolutely incorrect. you CAN, and there are advantages to if you are a heavy trader of smallish amounts. But you do not need a lightning node at ALL to make lightning deposits on their system. And if you are a node operator like many here who have well connected nodes, you would NOT need a channel with BFXx nodes to get money to them. AAND it is unlikely even in THAT scenario that you would have to go 6 or 7 hops lol. I think the median hop # would be something like 3.x as the bitfinex nodes are some of the most well connected on the whole network. And this is the network ITSELF doing this as a free market. Frankie is simply hand-waving with all kinds of worst case scenarios and clouds of meaningless numbers... Lightning works. It works well. I bought my daughter something on amazon worth $1000 with a few payments via Fold... got some fairly serious sats back for that. And guess what? I do not have a channel with Fold... or did not then, I may have opened one later. |
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Buddy my only warning for today is 22k by tomorrow or face the consequences.
Buddy does not give a fuck about consequences. |
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The Russian oracle made an astounding call in 2014. Not only did he nail the top but he described the trajectory of the next couple years to a 'T'. But broken clocks are right from time to time... (I always hated that old saw... because you can have a clock that is broken, and just slow... or others... it has the be STOPPED to be right twice a day).
And even since that time some of his analysis has been interesting and even sometimes accurate...
But one thing I have noticed in my years trading thing... Either do you own research and act on it or stay the fuck away from 'trading'.
I wonder how much money good old "bitcoin vanga" cost various sheep along the way? Not to blame it on them. No on second thought I blame it on them.
I remember a few times back then warning people not to blindly follow his advice (I thought he was manipulating), but people don't listen and I just got tired of having people ignore my advice. Sheeple like to have their bad choices justified and actually hate people who try to stop them from making them. I can count on one hand the amount of times I've been thanked over the years when I can only remember one time when I gave bad advice (which sticks in my mind as is still bothers me) and even that was only a 10% loss. Yeah... get it. I try not to give advice very much at all. But I know sometimes I could lead people the wrong direction with an opinion or observation. But my ethos rests pretty soundly on "what You do it between YOU and the universe. If you do something silly because of something I said, or did? Well I am honestly sorry to have been involved in that, but next time DYOR". That said Baba Lucifer Vanga was definitely acting as the pied piper when he got a hold of the flute... |
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If bugs were giant, like 2+ meters tall. Would we still be squeamish about eating them? Or would we hold them like farm animals?
shut up... fc ukp Your question is politically incorrect. & not only politically. Be green, SAVE THE PLANET Who the fuck are you? Ignored. |
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... You know, one of the main reasons why mindrust pulled out was greed. He aimed at some high amount of $ per BTC, he said he would never sell below that. When he was about x10 from his entry price he feared to lose more, so he sold everything but 1 BTC (IIRC, which i often doubt, hence my meaningful nickname). This sets you apart from mindrust, though, only if the (true) motivation for your leveraged long position wasn't greed. Some derivatives and tools of the financial markets are tempting because powerful if used successfully, but i think Satoshi was very much against them, as parts of the system, so he propagated HODL. This is what you should have done, but it's hard to do follow advice if you only trust in your own judgement. In reality, we are so weak and full of error... Good luck and act accordingly  I agree, mindrust's goal was always to increase his fiat stash and that is the trap he fell into. He fell for the astrology of Masterluc and thought he could rebuy at $1500 IIRC. He over exposed himself with his buy gamble (effective long) and was terrified of losing fiat value. He forgot 1 BTC = 1 BTC and for that he will always be a cautioning tale. The Russian oracle made an astounding call in 2014. Not only did he nail the top but he described the trajectory of the next couple years to a 'T'. But broken clocks are right from time to time... (I always hated that old saw... because you can have a clock that is broken, and just slow... or others... it has the be STOPPED to be right twice a day). And even since that time some of his analysis has been interesting and even sometimes accurate... But one thing I have noticed in my years trading thing... Either do you own research and act on it or stay the fuck away from 'trading'. I wonder how much money good old "bitcoin vanga" cost various sheep along the way? Not to blame it on them. No on second thought I blame it on them. |
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Is it just me or price looking promising? Yesterday closed a 3 Day doji reversal candle, highest green volume candle in over a year on this time-frame, during a 3 day weekend none the less.  On the 1 hr, price has broken out of it's short-term resistance downtrend, is consolidating at previous support (as opposed to getting rejected) and closing candles above the 200 MA. Looks trade-able to the upside again.  If this is a V-shaped recovery, then the target would be around $25.5K it seems, another 20% to the upside. Breaking back above the 200WMA would likely lead to such an increase imo. Edit: Price is also currently attempting to leave oversold conditions on the Daily chart, which usually leads to a 10-25% increase to the upside, even if not necessarily marking the lows.  It's time to see where this dead cat bounce leads us to I am cautiously optimistic... There are more arguments for a bottom near here than continued downward pressure... but some of the latter are still fairly strong. |
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I think that Jay and I can probably more or less agree that you have overconfidence in your predictive abilities. (To put the matter “diplomatically”.)
And I think that all of us can more or less agree that you are the mindrust for this season. If we broaden the definition, or create a new trophy entirely... Particularly considering this theme of this cycle: The ridonkulous leverage bart and debartening. |
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There are two things at fault here. A shitty SDD failure, and my lack of good preparation.
Did the SSD spontaneously die? Usually I'd advise for whole system / drive backups, but in case of Lightning, using the backup plugin (or what's now built-in) makes more sense, since it initiates a backup every time there's a channel-state update, which is what matters most. If your latest backup doesn't include one channel's latest update, you can get into trouble. Yep. The SSD failed. First drive of this type I had go tits up on me. Ah well. I am actually going to replace it with a teeny little raid setup to solve that problem... But I wonder if that will mean my house is destined to burn down? https://www.newegg.com/startech-s352bu313r-enclosure/p/N82E16817707429Anyway, thanks, all for the audience. I will quiet down about this now. Thanks for all the updates! Gave great insights; I only had such issues and failures / no backup, etc. in Lightning's 'reckless' phase and on Testnet which is multiple years back now, so memory gets a bit blurry. It's refreshing to see how the current state of Lightning is when it comes to failures and backup restore process. I ran a node on testnet too... I ended up (recklessly) graduating to main net with the node I created... OK this is embarrasing but I will tell you the story. It is one of the most convoluted things I have ever done. And I generally try to keep things simple. I built the node as a a docker container. First thing I had ever done with docker. And I ran it on this NAS device I originally bought to backup my family's files and be a sort of TV server. I have NO IDEA why I thought this was a good idea. Maybe I was drunk. But I ran it for a LONG time before finally retiring it. I still have those seed words. Because I am unable to delete. I suppose I am a bit of a hoarder. This was one of the reasons I had problems with this recovery. The backup files I have with all the seeds have EVERY SEED I have used along the way... And nothing is well marked. Well after THIS ordeal I have recreated the file and included ONLY the two keys I need. Live and learn... Oh and one other thing... This is for FRANKIE. Sadly I will not see any responces as he is ignored. Lol. All my errors, and poor backup hygiene? And yet this well made software made it possible for me to recover everything. A non trivial amount of money really. ALL OF IT back under my control. Both major implementations have advantages. CL has a better backup system (if it works) but LND is more foolproof. I think they would do well to both use the same basic approach... LND should add a live database backup (as well as a plugin system IMHO and while we are at it why not consider making the plugins cross compatible?) , and CL should add the ability to store Static Channel Backups. Two different strategies that will make both nodes pretty damn bulletproof. |
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Wha? Is 19 June a holiday in the United States? I was unaware.
The United States appropriated it from Texas. |
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You are not completely on the wrong track, even though some of these inferences about correlation are bullshit.
In other words, surely we may well have some short-term correlation between bitcoin and various mature asset classes.. and why did you not include the NASDAQ in there .. mainstream pundits love to talk about bitcoin's supposed correlation with the NASDAQ.. but sometimes the magnitude is just way different in one direction or another .. even though they are moving in the same direction at the same time... and such magnitude differences should provide some hints and a decent amount of consideration that some care has to be taken in terms of expecting that bitcoin respond in the same way as various mainstream mature assets or even to consider some temporary divergences that end up making BIG ASS differences in terms of "you should have been HODLing bitcoin you dumb fuck" kinds of happenings (not talking about you specifically, Biodom - even though sometimes you deserve to be included in such.. you fuck... (said with a large amount of affection).. hahahaha)
On a slightly different topic. I was going to edit my earlier post in which I was talking about my own considerations of the 200-week moving average as BTC's historical price bottom in light of some of Saylor's latest comments, too.. but since postenings are continue to happen so rapidly in this here thread, I decided to add this content to this current post instead.. I id not want my edit to get lost in the flood of ongoing postenings.. NO one can keep up anymore, not even bots fuck you guys posting soo much.. kettle black, again..
Regarding my own personal leverage: I have posted quite a few times in this thread and in other places on the forum about the value of leveraging in order to frontload your BTC investment when you are not sure about whether the BTC price is going to go up, and you believe that your cashflow is not coming in fast enough for you to be able to sufficiently advantage from such potential UPpity BTC price moves that might happen but are not guaranteed, and also I have never shied away from assertions that anyone employing these kinds of leveraging tactics are responsible to make sure that they are able to service their loans (leverage) under negative BTC price scenarios (or other unexpected negative events that might happen) and even possible extreme negative scenarios.. .. which surely these events can be considered as leveraging of future incoming cashflows and those future incoming cashflows could dry up or shrink, so in that sense, there should be back up cashflow or sources of funds, too in order to service such loans in even worse case scenarios..
Just like I am not going to apologize for my assertion of the historical strength of the 200-week moving average as the BTC price bottom, I am also not going to apologize for my maintaining a position that the use of leverage can be a very valuable practice if used with a decent amount of prudence and weighing of the various expected values and balancing those scenarios in order to prepare for lower probability scenarios coming true in contrast to the higher probability scenarios contained in your various calculations that happen at the time of contemplating whether or not to use leverage.. and if so, how much.
From my own personal perspective, I have used leverage a lot of times in life, and may well have not gotten into decently high levels of positive networth without the employment of various kinds of financial leverage that I had at my disposal over the years... and even in recent times, I have used leverage also.. yet even with my most recent leveraging of bitcoin/cash and various values related to cashflow and other assets that I have in order to attempt to front load more extensively on the potentiality of Bitcoin UPpity.. my total leverage amounts were likely less than 0.25% of my total BTC value.. and even after BTC prices dropped 50% or even our current max bottom of 75%, I am still under 1% leverage in those various standing and ongoing debts that I had decided to employ and I am still servicing and the employment of those debts surely did not end up paying off as of to date because the bitcoin price failed to go up, did not even go sideways as a second best scenario.. did not do a mediocre or reasonably aggressive correction but instead went balls to the wall into extreme beyond even more extreme expectations of a correction..
So yeah, it sucks that it would have been better to have had not employed such leverage, and a main solice may well be that the amount of the leverage in terms of the portfolio value is not really very high.. .. and some might proclaim, why even employ such low level of leverage in the first place.. that would have been less than 0.5%.. how the fuck you going to profit when you are employing such low leverage, and I do believe that there is still potential to profit from those kinds of plays.. especially since I have profited a lot in the past from doing it.. and surely sometimes it would have payed off way better to employ higher percentages of leverage, so to some extent there is some luck involved in terms of ONOY having had employed less than 0.5% leverage, because I would not have been opposed to something like 5%-ish leverage if some decently correct circumstances might have presented themselves to me.. I would have had some difficulties going very much higher than those amounts.. but again, for me it depends on the deal.. and surely some products that are merely earning high interest without much if any logical or convincing explanation of whey would not be the kinds of opportunities that I would have considered as good leveraging opportunities.... so in that regard, there may well be some luck since entering those kinds of deals partially depend upon when, too.. and maybe the amount that ends up getting deployed for such will also be affected by details of the deal.
Great Shub-Niggurath the almighty old one... How many keyboards do you buy in a month? And here I thought *I* was loquacious. |
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Issa gunna be an interesting week.... when the week actually starts ....... ie tomorrow (yes the whole world revolves around murica)
You know. What happens Monday Tuesday (shut up and celebrate the Galveston freedmen) goes much deeper than the good old U S of A. But there is no doubt the powers that actually be have plans for tomorrow... yes they do. |
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Well you know the old saying... First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. Congrats boys... we have definitely made it to the FIGHT part. HOLD. TAKE YOUR KEYS. |
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