Taking profit.

SELL @248.49

Not bearish since the moment it broke out upwards. see my last count.

I am still bearish longer term, this doesn't change anything.. I think we need to test lows one more time.

Oh wups dont mind me I didnt know this was a game.

Ill take whatever neo's having.

EDIT: BUY!!!1!(@$225)

+1

This is the adjusted count, it is the same as DanV's.

Where the direction that a triangle may break is not always certain, the distance that it will go is far more reliable. This will likely reach around 240 quite quickly. Although we should go up here, long-medium term counts are all still bearish, affirmed by this triangle.

The triangle has broken to the upside. This means the medium term count is somewhat different, we will go up to at least 1460-1500 or so. here I will look for signs of a downward reversal as triangles are terminal. I expect the upside move to continue sharply in relation to the size of the triangle.

The form of the triangle on chinese exchanges is not ideal, which is why I abandoned it this morning. However, looking at bitstamp, this is actually an excellent triangle formation. The count on chinese exchanges may still be technically valid counting the last rally as a wave e. As long as this continues to lack any bullish flare I am expecting a sharp decline to begin within the next 48 hours taking us to around 1150 or $190.

The illustration above cannot any longer be considered a triangle. the thrust has to be sharp. this is an early warning of potential bullishness.

Right folks,

It seems like the flat correction has evolved into an EW triangle. We have just completed the five wave of 3, and ready to take a sharp dip that could come any time soon.

As this is a triangle, it contradicts any dives as low as will probably be necessary to establish a bottom, and as triangles are terminal moves, after we dip here a nice buy signal will likely come in the aftermath for a medium term buy. 

The violent dip last night was the result of a triangle. From an objective perspective I have to assume a delay in the shorter term down trend before the expected retest of low, wave v of the expanding diagonal comes. Triangle are terminal moves, they appear in wave B and wave iv position. Alternately if we see a rally we could also fall from a fair fib retrace.

Some disturbing factors are at play that we need to be immediately aware of.

As I illustrated above, I have given reasons why I think a final leg down of an expanding diagonal may be well under way. We now have a convincing primary count of that potential final wave that could produce final lows at around 500-700yuan, or $70-$90. This is quality form. Of coarse, this impulse could be part of an alternative but there is no doubt in terms of EW that we are at least bound for moderately lower lows at present. This is at a time of global financial upset because of recent Greece announcements, and Benjamin from Trading View, part of a team that manages large funds tipped off the folks in the chat box that a large move was coming (more to the point, planned). He was rather cryptic about which way, however he said it would be timed alongside US treasury and Greece situations. I cannot vow for the accuracy of this however he has been true to his word in the past, and along side this primary count I see there is a good chance that we may fall soon to spectacularly to briefly find bedrock at around $100.

Take care with margin folks.



A word on Expanding diagonals - an expanding diagonal is an impulse which by exception expands in five waves of 3's. It may occur in wave c, wave v or wave i position. they must expand as illustrated, and a hard rule, wave v MUST be bigger than wave iii. This places out targets at $90 or about 700 yuan minimum if I the count is correct.

... Where this is a possible short term variation on the correction...

Sadly things are looking bear. This cristal clear triangle has no place in a bull trend. Follow DanV who is tracking the expanding diagonal which could likely bring us to around $100 for a final bottom.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/MMmpnZBY/#tc138321

This is the rough chart of the likely expanding diagonal that will conclude the bear market. invalidated by passing through $350 short term.

It has been difficult to describe the price action from lows in terms of EW while the initial bullish count was accurate. Nothing is certain in terms of bottoming yet while wave C may still be an expanding diagonal as described by DanV, but this here is a strong count rounding off an abc correction from 1900yuan. With rumours that McDonalds maybe accepting bitcoin, this is a juncture that I would not miss out on.

All the corrective waves that have unfolded from the low of $150 have been abcs's, but there have been clearly five unfolding in the form of a leading diagonal. This is one impulse upwards, and impulses never occur on their own. Yes this could be a primary wave that kicks off the next bubble, although after the unexpected fall through $200 the only basis I can see for calling the bottom is this primary wave its self.

The bullish price behaviour that is happening now nullifies any chance in terms of EW that we will see lower lows for quite some time in a bearish case, and there is a high chance that even in a bearish case we will correct to 1600 yuan in an abc.

get your bull pants on for a little while. Im eagerly waiting to see how this behaves. Looking for signs that the next bubble has started.

It seems like the greater wave C that many EW analysts have been tracking has turned out to be something else. We cant conclude too much about what will follow as a result of breaking through the lower $200s level down to $150 yet, although the game could change quite a lot. key is to stay safe until the bigger picture is clear.

In the short term we have had a zigzag reaction from lows. After huge margin calls yesterday the price will likely be in a state of reaction for 2-3 days at least. Technically we could easily see lower lows after this reaction.

Eidt - I dont mean to give the impression that capitulation cannot happen here, after margin calls like that it wouldn't surprise me, but we lack the EW evidence as yet.
 


I am going to conclude this thread here as really the entire basis of it has been invalidated. I may start a new thread if I see a true EW bottom form but for now it would be better to follow a different train of thought.

I will check my pm's every couple of days if anyone wants to talk.

Be safe.

We will probably see a flat correction here before a bit more down.



Do not despair of this bearish price action. So this is not an ending diagonal fifth, and it is not impulsive in the medium term picture - which can only be good for bulls longer term. This is consistent with a count of DanV that I posted a few moths ago now, that larger wave C is an ending diagonal. Not unlike tooty frooties chart published above.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/A1mFwkEG/

I am confident as I have been since this thread began that we will bottom above $200. Wave V is reaching a conclusion no matter which way you look at it. It is only a couple of months before the next rally begins that will take us easily to $700 and possibly to a new ATH.

Never trust hope


Its obviously an important question that anyone who understands the principle must ask. Two truths apply here imo, the market is self conscious and that makes it difficult to trade in cycles and waves, just like how EW is applied to the market its self yet less measurable. Yet all the EW analysts in the world could not have (and would not have) stopped the mania that drove the price of bitoin to an irrational $1100 dollars in december 2013. Nothing can be taken for granted with the market, yet history tells that mankind has yet much to evolve.

we could have here a truncated ending diagonal (v) of V here. nothing conclusive, but I am on alert for bottoming in this area. at this level, only a matter of time before we break out to the upside. the downwards price action is not impulsive. This suggests that even if the wave V ending diagonal is wrong, we will be likely exploring the area of 3000+ yuan again within months.

The market is cornered. Time wise, we now have better evidence that we are close to a longer term bottom than we have had throughout the bear market beginning last December. Consistent with this evidence is that we continue to fall a bit more. weak miserable price action, probably no more than 2 months, and then we may see some fireworks. In due time the ATH of $1100 will probably be broken by the best potential long term EW counts.

You could call it both. but we are looking for an EW count, and there is only one way wave V could be described with the current price action, and that is by a descending wedge. It is still contracting as a wedge should, its totally valid. The beauty of an ending diagonal is that it will reveal strong characteristics at the terminal juncture, and we dont need to risk anything until we have that silver bullet. Until then it is also a bad idea to swing trade this price action as I have been saying for many weeks.