Critical Levels - EW analysis

[Afrikoin]

Cheesenut, got some EW for us?

Sorry, no EW from me. But i have a thought

Bitfinex 4h

This pattern from bottom $ 255



Possibly resembles this pattern from $275 bottom about 2 months ago.



A corrective pattern i believe its called? Not sure.

1st pattern looks weaker than the second ie from its angle.

Here is how the second one played out



My theory is a similar pattern followed by a similar breakdown. Because it is weaker, we might fall further down.

[Tzupy]

To confirm a truncation and the new bullish pattern, we should see sustained buying during the next couple of days, if not...

[Afrikoin]

To confirm a truncation and the new bullish pattern, we should see sustained buying during the next couple of days, if not...

RyanDeClem said this a couple of days ago

''The other option is a pull back to ~$275-280 and an even more declining volume rise to the $320's''. The top of the range is around 320s

IF sustained buys come in the next days like you say.

[prophetx]

this puppy is going down to the 1xx

we all know that... gotta see some companies closing shop, etc.

[seleme]

this puppy is going down to the 1xx

we all know that... gotta see some companies closing shop, etc.

Cex.io stopped their cloud mining service today.

[Queeq]

On the contrary, due to its repetitive and fractal nature, it's very hard to determine the true pattern that will play out which is constantly changing based on where market sentiment moves.

And you will always have different counts possible which lead to diametrically opposite resolutions. So it's mostly about probabilities.

What do you say to this then ?

I would say that 2014 chart is incomplete.

[Afrikoin]

dumps on bitfinex. been (still am) on vacay and lost a bit of feel for the market. Has this been the norm these past days?

[RyNinDaCleM]

dumps on bitfinex. been (still am) on vacay and lost a bit of feel for the market. Has this been the norm these past days?

Since the small spike after stamp came back? Yes. Just down with weak pull backs

[BTCtrader71]

The Okcoin quarterly BTC futures (due 3/27/15) have been a few (maybe ~ $5) dollars higher than the spot price during this entire recent downtrend (like from $300 to $230), until today. Now the futures price is about $5 lower than the spot price. Does that mean sentiment is even more bearish today than yesterday?

[Afrikoin]

The Okcoin quarterly BTC futures (due 3/27/15) have been a few (maybe ~ $5) dollars higher than the spot price during this entire recent downtrend (like from $300 to $230), until today. Now the futures price is about $5 lower than the spot price. Does that mean sentiment is even more bearish today than yesterday?

ideally, yes.

[Afrikoin]

will history repeat itself?

[Bitbuy]

On the contrary, due to its repetitive and fractal nature, it's very hard to determine the true pattern that will play out which is constantly changing based on where market sentiment moves.

And you will always have different counts possible which lead to diametrically opposite resolutions. So it's mostly about probabilities.

What do you say to this then ?

I would say that 2014 chart is incomplete.

Only difference with previous times is, that the previous ATH was never broken...

[BldSwtTrs]

Any update chessnut?

[chessnut]

It seems like the greater wave C that many EW analysts have been tracking has turned out to be something else. We cant conclude too much about what will follow as a result of breaking through the lower $200s level down to $150 yet, although the game could change quite a lot. key is to stay safe until the bigger picture is clear.

In the short term we have had a zigzag reaction from lows. After huge margin calls yesterday the price will likely be in a state of reaction for 2-3 days at least. Technically we could easily see lower lows after this reaction.

Eidt - I dont mean to give the impression that capitulation cannot happen here, after margin calls like that it wouldn't surprise me, but we lack the EW evidence as yet.
 


I am going to conclude this thread here as really the entire basis of it has been invalidated. I may start a new thread if I see a true EW bottom form but for now it would be better to follow a different train of thought.

I will check my pm's every couple of days if anyone wants to talk.

Be safe.

[chessnut]

All the corrective waves that have unfolded from the low of $150 have been abcs's, but there have been clearly five unfolding in the form of a leading diagonal. This is one impulse upwards, and impulses never occur on their own. Yes this could be a primary wave that kicks off the next bubble, although after the unexpected fall through $200 the only basis I can see for calling the bottom is this primary wave its self.

The bullish price behaviour that is happening now nullifies any chance in terms of EW that we will see lower lows for quite some time in a bearish case, and there is a high chance that even in a bearish case we will correct to 1600 yuan in an abc.

get your bull pants on for a little while. Im eagerly waiting to see how this behaves. Looking for signs that the next bubble has started.

[chessnut]

It has been difficult to describe the price action from lows in terms of EW while the initial bullish count was accurate. Nothing is certain in terms of bottoming yet while wave C may still be an expanding diagonal as described by DanV, but this here is a strong count rounding off an abc correction from 1900yuan. With rumours that McDonalds maybe accepting bitcoin, this is a juncture that I would not miss out on.

[chessnut]

Sadly things are looking bear. This cristal clear triangle has no place in a bull trend. Follow DanV who is tracking the expanding diagonal which could likely bring us to around $100 for a final bottom.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/MMmpnZBY/#tc138321

This is the rough chart of the likely expanding diagonal that will conclude the bear market. invalidated by passing through $350 short term.

[chessnut]

Some disturbing factors are at play that we need to be immediately aware of.

As I illustrated above, I have given reasons why I think a final leg down of an expanding diagonal may be well under way. We now have a convincing primary count of that potential final wave that could produce final lows at around 500-700yuan, or $70-$90. This is quality form. Of coarse, this impulse could be part of an alternative but there is no doubt in terms of EW that we are at least bound for moderately lower lows at present. This is at a time of global financial upset because of recent Greece announcements, and Benjamin from Trading View, part of a team that manages large funds tipped off the folks in the chat box that a large move was coming (more to the point, planned). He was rather cryptic about which way, however he said it would be timed alongside US treasury and Greece situations. I cannot vow for the accuracy of this however he has been true to his word in the past, and along side this primary count I see there is a good chance that we may fall soon to spectacularly to briefly find bedrock at around $100.

Take care with margin folks.



A word on Expanding diagonals - an expanding diagonal is an impulse which by exception expands in five waves of 3's. It may occur in wave c, wave v or wave i position. they must expand as illustrated, and a hard rule, wave v MUST be bigger than wave iii. This places out targets at $90 or about 700 yuan minimum if I the count is correct.

... Where this is a possible short term variation on the correction...

[chessnut]

The violent dip last night was the result of a triangle. From an objective perspective I have to assume a delay in the shorter term down trend before the expected retest of low, wave v of the expanding diagonal comes. Triangle are terminal moves, they appear in wave B and wave iv position. Alternately if we see a rally we could also fall from a fair fib retrace.

[chessnut]

Right folks,

It seems like the flat correction has evolved into an EW triangle. We have just completed the five wave of 3, and ready to take a sharp dip that could come any time soon.

As this is a triangle, it contradicts any dives as low as will probably be necessary to establish a bottom, and as triangles are terminal moves, after we dip here a nice buy signal will likely come in the aftermath for a medium term buy.