Critical Levels - EW analysis

[prophetx]

holy smokes have you guys seen the new POLO UI?

https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_xcp

OMFG A+++++ job

 

[podyx]

holy smokes have you guys seen the new POLO UI?

https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_xcp

OMFG A+++++ job

 

Bagholding XCP huh?

[prophetx]

holy smokes have you guys seen the new POLO UI?

https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_xcp

OMFG A+++++ job

 

Bagholding XCP huh?

yea i heard it might be used for a stock exchange for a listed stock

i got no problem holding that bag

I actually meant to post this elsewhere

[Afrikoin]

[/quote]

By my most probable counts, two weeks from now it should be clear where the market is going.
If there will be a slow uptrend, eventually breaking resistance at 365$, in which case 275$ was THE bottom, or
there will be a slow downtrend which will accelerate about two weeks from now and crash probably below 200$.
[/quote]

Sorry, i don't see us crashing below $ 200. Its not plausible given everything happening around Bitcoin right now. $ 266, possibly and even then, a candlestick hammer with a long tail.

below $200? Really?

[RyNinDaCleM]

By my most probable counts, two weeks from now it should be clear where the market is going.
If there will be a slow uptrend, eventually breaking resistance at 365$, in which case 275$ was THE bottom, or
there will be a slow downtrend which will accelerate about two weeks from now and crash probably below 200$.

Sorry, i don't see us crashing below $ 200. Its not plausible given everything happening around Bitcoin right now. $ 266, possibly and even then, a candlestick hammer with a long tail.

below $200? Really?

If we break 266 then the panic could take us there. It's not in my sights yet, but it all depends on how/if we get to $266 (speed and strength)

[watuba]

So much talk about a new bull run beginning  Ive seen online articles published about this little movement from 1870.

There is nothing substantial to support this.

I am still expecting us to wander in zig zags for a month or so to form an ending diagonal. Bad trading environment. Its gonna suck.

Id like to leave you all with this video I find relevant to the thread. See how although the particles of the system are sometimes hopelessly out of phase, they never fail to find a common denominator given time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVkdfJ9PkRQ

I don't quite understand why it's untradeable.  If you're certain this is going to end around 270, why not take a medium term short here with a high stop loss and ride it out?  That's a pretty good risk/reward if like $365 invalidates this count.

[chessnut]

I don't quite understand why it's untradeable.  If you're certain this is going to end around 270, why not take a medium term short here with a high stop loss and ride it out?  That's a pretty good risk/reward if like $365 invalidates this count.

Its not unreadable, just difficult to read and ambiguous. Impulses move cleanly and offer excellent risk/reward entries. The zig zags inbetween are not worth worrying about. Like Ive said wave V could well be diminished as wave III as over extended, so Im not counting on revisit of 270. Id only expect slightly lower lows here for my own protection. Also, while wave V is the count I am following, there are still alternative possibilities that I see are unlikely, but like I noted this behaviour is ambiguous. for example this could be a wave B of a (very!) large flat correction. Furthermore ending diagonals end violently. I would not want to be caught holding a medium term short at the bottom of this market.

Having said that, here is a decisive count. The steep upward thrust which occurred today out of nowhere seems likely to be the result of an EW triangle. Triangles are terminal moves so I expect the move to be fully retraced at least.



As the thrust resolves to the down side we might see what place a triangle has at this point exactly.

[Coinshot]

By my most probable counts, two weeks from now it should be clear where the market is going.
If there will be a slow uptrend, eventually breaking resistance at 365$, in which case 275$ was THE bottom, or
there will be a slow downtrend which will accelerate about two weeks from now and crash probably below 200$.

Sorry, i don't see us crashing below $ 200. Its not plausible given everything happening around Bitcoin right now. $ 266, possibly and even then, a candlestick hammer with a long tail.

below $200? Really?

If we break 266 then the panic could take us there. It's not in my sights yet, but it all depends on how/if we get to $266 (speed and strength)

If it was to break below 266 last weekend was a good time. It stayed above 300 which is a bullish sign to me.
Still have to wait and watch to see which it goes.

[RyNinDaCleM]

By my most probable counts, two weeks from now it should be clear where the market is going.
If there will be a slow uptrend, eventually breaking resistance at 365$, in which case 275$ was THE bottom, or
there will be a slow downtrend which will accelerate about two weeks from now and crash probably below 200$.

Sorry, i don't see us crashing below $ 200. Its not plausible given everything happening around Bitcoin right now. $ 266, possibly and even then, a candlestick hammer with a long tail.

below $200? Really?

If we break 266 then the panic could take us there. It's not in my sights yet, but it all depends on how/if we get to $266 (speed and strength)

If it was to break below 266 last weekend was a good time. It stayed above 300 which is a bullish sign to me.
Still have to wait and watch to see which it goes.

Just as an option that leads toward the previous ATH and the long term trend line


I even said it in another thread that we would get a bounce from around 300. This count is completely valid and somewhat likely to happen.

edit
This is the ending diagonal that chessnut is talking about. Comprised by all zigzags until the bitter end, possibly concluding in a double bottom.

[Coinshot]

Just as an option that leads toward the previous ATH and the long term trend line

I even said it in another thread that we would get a bounce from around 300. This count is completely valid and somewhat likely to happen.

What is the time scale for this option? A couple of weeks?

[Afrikoin]

Just as an option that leads toward the previous ATH and the long term trend line

I even said it in another thread that we would get a bounce from around 300. This count is completely valid and somewhat likely to happen.

What is the time scale for this option? A couple of weeks?

There is never any time scale really, just rough estimates based on traders' biases?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Just as an option that leads toward the previous ATH and the long term trend line

I even said it in another thread that we would get a bounce from around 300. This count is completely valid and somewhat likely to happen.

What is the time scale for this option? A couple of weeks?

There is never any time scale really, just rough estimates based on traders' biases?

EW does tend to hold channels for the length of an impulse. Then the group of 5 channels make one large channel. So, often you can gauge an approximate time, but Bitcoin has it's moments where your expectation is just obliterated by a long sideways consolidation. This is why I don't usually give time frames.

I try my best to keep biases out of my charts. Mainly because I will trade in both directions and it does me no good to only look at one direction. It's just that this rise has properties of a corrective pull back as opposed to an impulsive move.
-Too much overlap throughout the move
-Heavily decreasing volume during the rise in price
-Indecision

As well as properties that the last decline wasn't the final decline;
-Lower lows on all the shorter term indicators 4hr and less (read no divergence)
-heavier volume indicating a 3rd wave
-decent spike in the indicators during this rise indicating a 4th wave of some degree

If I had to give a timeline on that particular count, I would say 1-6 weeks.

[Afrikoin]

Just as an option that leads toward the previous ATH and the long term trend line

I even said it in another thread that we would get a bounce from around 300. This count is completely valid and somewhat likely to happen.

What is the time scale for this option? A couple of weeks?

There is never any time scale really, just rough estimates based on traders' biases?

EW does tend to hold channels for the length of an impulse. Then the group of 5 channels make one large channel. So, often you can gauge an approximate time, but Bitcoin has it's moments where your expectation is just obliterated by a long sideways consolidation. This is why I don't usually give time frames.

I try my best to keep biases out of my charts. Mainly because I will trade in both directions and it does me no good to only look at one direction. It's just that this rise has properties of a corrective pull back as opposed to an impulsive move.
-Too much overlap throughout the move
-Heavily decreasing volume during the rise in price
-Indecision

As well as properties that the last decline wasn't the final decline;
-Lower lows on all the shorter term indicators 4hr and less (read no divergence)
-heavier volume indicating a 3rd wave
-decent spike in the indicators during this rise indicating a 4th wave of some degree

If I had to give a timeline on that particular count, I would say 1-6 weeks.

I went with my gut feel. This move up felt a lot like a while back - when we hit $ 392 for example then went down, $ 380s same happened etc

Also, a strong bull would have broken 330 level in a shorter period. We've been at it for a while now. I recall the move up from $ 275 bottom up past every resistance. Typically, that's the force i expect for a wave V?

[Afrikoin]

6 hourly on Bitstamp

Down possibly soon?

Looks like an INVERTED double bottom.

[RyNinDaCleM]

6 hourly on Bitstamp

Down possibly soon?

Looks like an INVERTED double bottom.

So, double top?
The divergence is quite pronounced there, as well as on all the time frames below it. The main thing holding this up is the reluctance to sell from FOMO. Off the top, a small degree first wave down looks to be complete.

[coinableS]

30 min chart has a rising RSI and a flat to slightly downward price action giving us positive divergence. Also 12HR, 1D, and 3D EMA pattern looks bullish. I'm expecting an upswing.

[Afrikoin]

30 min chart has a rising RSI and a flat to slightly downward price action giving us positive divergence. Also 12HR, 1D, and 3D EMA pattern looks bullish. I'm expecting an upswing.

Bullish on the 30 min is a high tail tip on a higher time frame candlestick.

What bullish number do you have in mind?

[coinableS]

What bullish number do you have in mind?

Short term: Tree-fitty

That will take us back up to the downward resistance trend line that we've been unable to break.

[chessnut]

Wave v ending diagonal is still valid. The latest rally to 2085 was impressive but not critical. I expect a gentle down trend to complete wave v. Ending diagonals are fragile things, it could end violently bullish so take care bears. 

[Afrikoin]

Wave v ending diagonal is still valid. The latest rally to 2085 was impressive but not critical. I expect a gentle down trend to complete wave v. Ending diagonals are fragile things, it could end violently bullish so take care bears. 

imugr?