Wave v ending diagonal is still valid. The latest rally to 2085 was impressive but not critical. I expect a gentle down trend to complete wave v. Ending diagonals are fragile things, it could end violently bullish so take care bears. 

Its not unreadable, just difficult to read and ambiguous. Impulses move cleanly and offer excellent risk/reward entries. The zig zags inbetween are not worth worrying about. Like Ive said wave V could well be diminished as wave III as over extended, so Im not counting on revisit of 270. Id only expect slightly lower lows here for my own protection. Also, while wave V is the count I am following, there are still alternative possibilities that I see are unlikely, but like I noted this behaviour is ambiguous. for example this could be a wave B of a (very!) large flat correction. Furthermore ending diagonals end violently. I would not want to be caught holding a medium term short at the bottom of this market.

Having said that, here is a decisive count. The steep upward thrust which occurred today out of nowhere seems likely to be the result of an EW triangle. Triangles are terminal moves so I expect the move to be fully retraced at least.



As the thrust resolves to the down side we might see what place a triangle has at this point exactly.

So much talk about a new bull run beginning  Ive seen online articles published about this little movement from 1870.

There is nothing substantial to support this.

I am still expecting us to wander in zig zags for a month or so to form an ending diagonal. Bad trading environment. Its gonna suck.

Id like to leave you all with this video I find relevant to the thread. See how although the particles of the system are sometimes hopelessly out of phase, they never fail to find a common denominator given time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVkdfJ9PkRQ

this seems to be wave V unfolding as an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals unfold in threes when wave iii has gone too far too fast, as the market lacks the energy to unfold in five impulsive waves. Wave iii did extended 2.8x wave i, overshooting the fib target by a fair amount. This is why we have been drifting so frustratingly sideways and now downwards.

We have now seen the worst of wave V of (C), and I am expecting a volatile and range bound market. We will see lower lows in the case of wave V, but they will be limited and difficult to profit from. It should last a month, maybe two at a stretch.

Wave V will be immediately clear in retrospect. This will be very useful to us, as it will offer a clear cut buy signal. This will be a very special signal as it will be the first that I can say with confidence that I expect to be the bottom. Until then, take care.

yep we will likely see another bubble. it may struggle to reach $5000, it may even fail under $1000, but another bubble towards $1000 is highly probable in EW terms.

I have not forgotten the thread. There are counts brewing, we will ride the next bubble. The current conditions are no good for EW though.

There is a chance that we will drift down to 250 as an ending diagonal wave V unfolds. This will be really unfriendly and untradable, but will precede a great long opportunity.

Following yesterdays impulse we have a roughly 0.618 dip and an abc retracement. a breakout above 2170 at this point is bullish.

Hey guys,

I suspected that this would be a bear trap. It seems waiting for some action was a good idea.

Now commencing is an impulsve count, targeting original upside targets. Lets give it some time and see how it unfolds.

Ill add that chasing the price is never wise, this time no exception. we should get a fair dip and signal.

Im not a perma bull, Ive ridden some great shorts actually and probably many to come.


I agree that the idea we are trending has changed but I do not agree that entails we should turn bearish right now. I think this market could burn bears here.

There is simply no impulse, this market has no motive, EW will not be effective until there is.

We are seeing some very bullish price action. Following a corrective zigzag we have a nice primary wave from lows. This must be followed by a move up, probably substantial. given the position of this primary wave, there is a fair chance we are in a minor wave three at the present and could be trending toward 2450 at the time being.

For the next four days I will be away and might not be able to trade or comment on the market. Dont cling to my analysis if this goes south obviously, as it could.

  Im just hibernating, waiting for the beast to move. EW doesnt serve well in the doldrums, I need volatility. Im not going to continue posting charts when I seem to be off at the moment.

I never said it wont happen any more. the bigger picture always dominates the smaller.

This appears to be a triangle breakout. looks like a good thrust will occur to the upside. Id have to assume that we will be range bound from there however.

.... not sure where it fits in.  will have to wait and see. seems like that abc might have been a triangle although wave e would be tiny and I dont see where it fits in.

Im pretty sure there is no consistent count across all exchanges, this is really the cleanest count I can see. it holds true for Okcoin and Btc china. Huobi, evidently, had feed problems at that time any how.

Looks like we have had a flat abc correction (3-3-5) where C is a trunctated impulsive wedge. This highlights a strong underlying forece in the trend. minor wave iii coud take us far in a breakout here.

oh dear, you mean the currency is under developed? tough times being such early adopters.

A bigger IV triangle? thats an idea, but imo draw it out on a chart and youll quickly see why its not likely. It would be ridiculously huge I think there must be some fibonacci laws against such a big wave in comparison to the greater C wave.

Yeah, unfortunately this could be really hard to catch from here on, considering we are likely entering wave iii of whatever we are in (not confused with wave III) What I would do is open small positions all along the way. If we fall from current levels to around 2270 that would be an excellent dip to buy. If we breakout from here above 2360, that would be either a chance to take a slightly risky medium term position, or a smaller scalp which could escalate into a holder position.