Critical Levels - EW analysis

[chessnut]

Thanks man!  I'm trying to find a good entry point without acting too much on fomo.  I was short last night, would have profited but my buy orders didn't get filled(the price didn't go down quite as far as I thought), and didn't anticipate this jump.  I wonder if we could also be in a bigger IV triangle?  This price action though begs me to reconsider, and you're probably right.

A bigger IV triangle? thats an idea, but imo draw it out on a chart and youll quickly see why its not likely. It would be ridiculously huge I think there must be some fibonacci laws against such a big wave in comparison to the greater C wave.

Yeah, unfortunately this could be really hard to catch from here on, considering we are likely entering wave iii of whatever we are in (not confused with wave III) What I would do is open small positions all along the way. If we fall from current levels to around 2270 that would be an excellent dip to buy. If we breakout from here above 2360, that would be either a chance to take a slightly risky medium term position, or a smaller scalp which could escalate into a holder position. 

[BitCoinNutJob]

This could shoot up $150 quickly etc at anytime imo make sure you have your price alarms on if you havent got a hold position 

[itod]

This could shoot up $150 quickly etc at anytime imo make sure you have your price alarms on if you havent got a hold position 

Why do you think now can be the time for such a big price rise? Don't see anything that can initiate that.

[BitCoinNutJob]

This could shoot up $150 quickly etc at anytime imo make sure you have your price alarms on if you havent got a hold position  

Why do you think now can be the time for such a big price rise? Don't see anything that can initiate that.

Off top of head something like amazon/ebay, full paypal wallet integration or china news/wall street could do this within a few hours, and spark the next bubble.

Bitcoin seems to catch the market off guard, we all know at some point in next 1 month -2 years it goes to the moon right? the chances must be >50% of this.  There is no decent competition in the bitcoin space its the clear winner right now.

[chessnut]

Looks like we have had a flat abc correction (3-3-5) where C is a trunctated impulsive wedge. This highlights a strong underlying forece in the trend. minor wave iii coud take us far in a breakout here.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Looks like we have had a flat abc correction (3-3-5) where C is a trunctated impulsive wedge. This highlights a strong underlying forece in the trend. minor wave iii coud take us far in a breakout here.

That ii retraces more than 100%
The break out is already happening, but your count is off so the ii may have been a i up and this HH is already iii of 3

[chessnut]

That ii retraces more than 100%
The break out is already happening, but your count is off so the ii may have been a i up and this HH is already iii of 3

Im pretty sure there is no consistent count across all exchanges, this is really the cleanest count I can see. it holds true for Okcoin and Btc china. Huobi, evidently, had feed problems at that time any how.

[podyx]

Looks like we still will be going down...

[chessnut]

Looks like we still will be going down...

.... not sure where it fits in.  will have to wait and see. seems like that abc might have been a triangle although wave e would be tiny and I dont see where it fits in.

[BitCoinNutJob]

Looks like we still will be going down...

great i have a buy order in a little lower - need some bad news doesnt want to drop, also holding so happy if it goes up.

[podyx]

I really cannot afford to get margin called again
This market just completely moves the exact opposite way what I do, it seems like I just can't win

You think this is a short term bottom and we'll be going up from here though?

[Newbie1022]

I really cannot afford to get margin called again
This market just completely moves the exact opposite way what I do, it seems like I just can't win

You think this is a short term bottom and we'll be going up from here though?

Sometimes it helps to just sit out a couple of days and kind of reset your timing. Really, not just knowing the market, but having a sense of timing matters. If you end up getting in at the middle of a cycle you can feel like you are swung in all the wrong directions.

I think that we'll probably have a mini-recovery rally to about 380... then back down further. Probably stops around 355 to 365. It's just a little pre-auction manipulation and a small sell off on the modest Black Friday sales.

The auction is a big unknown. I doubt we'll have a high bid, but the price will be all over the place with a jump up being more likely. Assuming the jump up after the rally, then we should go to the high 400s/low 500s range based on the 1 week chart. Then the question is whether the market will actually turn bullish and peak towards the last proximate mark or collapse at that point (if you look at the 1 week chart... one pattern that could develop is three waves that continually recede in intensity.

[phoenix1]

Figure 20 flipped over (as this could all be an upwards correction in a downtrend) seems like a possiblilty here, a triple 3 off $275 ending in a triangle for Y (end of IV), and a break to the downside on completion, the start of Wave V

http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics3.htm

Any thoughts Ellioticians ??

[podyx]

The very short term count has slightly changed, see here. I do think we need a greater retrace but not necessarily 2260. We might see some incredible strength here.

We have moved in a similar way, do you think we will have another leg down to 2270 before we go up?

chessnut is reading this market really accurate

[coinableS]

Sometimes it helps to just sit out a couple of days and kind of reset your timing. Really, not just knowing the market, but having a sense of timing matters. If you end up getting in at the middle of a cycle you can feel like you are swung in all the wrong directions.

+1 
Also I agree about the auction leaving a big unknown. It's only 5 days away so I think I'll sit and watch until then.

[prophetx]

Sometimes it helps to just sit out a couple of days and kind of reset your timing. Really, not just knowing the market, but having a sense of timing matters. If you end up getting in at the middle of a cycle you can feel like you are swung in all the wrong directions.

+1 
Also I agree about the auction leaving a big unknown. It's only 5 days away so I think I'll sit and watch until then.

patience has almost always paid off for me

good choice

[wadili89]

Off top of head something like amazon/ebay, full paypal wallet integration or china news/wall street could do this within a few hours, and spark the next bubble.

The good news rise has now reached saturation. Any more integration with payments will put selling pressure which will negate any positive impact.

Rise has to come from some other source, not merchants taking it.

[lebing]

Sometimes it helps to just sit out a couple of days and kind of reset your timing. Really, not just knowing the market, but having a sense of timing matters. If you end up getting in at the middle of a cycle you can feel like you are swung in all the wrong directions.

+1 
Also I agree about the auction leaving a big unknown. It's only 5 days away so I think I'll sit and watch until then.

What exactly is unknown about the auction? Its going into deep, patient pockets - just like the last one. This should not affect the price at all.

[bitebits]

What exactly is unknown about the auction? Its going into deep, patient pockets - just like the last one. This should not affect the price at all.

+1
It is quite likely that these hands are more patient and stronger (Tim Draper does not panic dump his coins on Bitstamp after possibly losing substantial fiat value). We have seen possible examples that early adopters do (Bear Whale), because they don't have a well balanced portfolio. The change is higher that the SR guy is into the last category.

It could even be that after the auction, the traders don't witness any dumping, which would lead to buying some coins instead (they already dumped what they are comfortable dumping at these prices).

[BitCoinNutJob]

Off top of head something like amazon/ebay, full paypal wallet integration or china news/wall street could do this within a few hours, and spark the next bubble.

The good news rise has now reached saturation. Any more integration with payments will put selling pressure which will negate any positive impact.

Rise has to come from some other source, not merchants taking it.

I get your point but i disagree, something like full paypal wallet integration combined with ebay usage and im not selling below say.... $3k - $4k but also would expect much higher prices after if there is no competition/gov stamp out.

The biggest problem with bitcoin is its a pain in the arse to use and unsafe for mainstream.... Why bother. Someone like paypal can solve this at least for a period.