Fantastic catch, fantastic news. I hope this is as simple as it looks and gets widely adopted. |
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Re antifragile, I believe the concept of "antifragile" can be looked at as a matter of degree. I pointed that out right away And Taleb specifically emphasizes that point as well. Antifragility is possible only within a range on a certain continuum, and it necessarily comes at the expense of something else, either from inside or outside. This is a crucial point which can be generalized to cryptocurrencies, and then looked into. More specifically, this topic is about finding out and examining the circumstances and conditions under which Bitcoin reveals its antifragile nature, i.e. when it gains and becomes stronger from the chaos and turmoil outside, or even from within (from being bitmexed and goxed) N. N. Taleb himself has written that gold is antifragile That was a loaded question Really, how can you constructively disagree with something if you don't even understand the whole idea as this thread clearly proves? Taleb highlights that living systems are the best examples of antifragility. However, he goes on for pages how he couldn't come up with a term to describe this phenomenon when the fittest term (pun intended) is obviously evolutionary? Living systems thrive in a volatile and chaotic environment for the simple reason it is likely the only way to increase the external entropy and decrease their own, i.e. essentially the only way to get on Hi deisik It's been a long time since I read Taleb's Antifragile, although the book is still sitting within my eyesight now up there on my bookshelf. It looks like we do not disagree re BTC and gold being antifragile to the mainstream financial system. Antifragile investments are a good diversification. And whether the inverse correlation with other investments is very strong or less so is not important to me, they act as hedges, at least in part. Good enough for my purposes. * * * pooya87 I only mentioned ATHs as one of several indicators that can be looked at to make a rough assessment of price correlations. BTC has not been an investible asset (suitable for the somewhat mainstream people) since +/- Jan 2017 (I got in around 2014). So the time periods I chose reflect the longest period of time I thought proper for an initial look to see what aspects of "antifragile" price behavior I could tease out during the same period (Jan 2017 - now) for gold, BTC and stocks. Look, I understand that is imperfect analysis, but comparing BTC to assets that have been around longer has its problems. Looking at the ATHs does have some value, IMO. I am not saying that there may not be better indicators, I'm sure there are. I cannot and do not claim to any extraordinary expertise in examining asset classes. deisik's thread here has been useful to me to look at how these three classes have worked out in the past three years. For me, that's value. |
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The $4trillion ($6trillion?) .gov and FED dollar dumps look to be starting to land. It looks like there is more to come, as Congress & Trump are negotiating a Round 4 of stimulation response re CCPVirus. It's just my opinion, but I do not like massive .gov intervention, when does this stop? If this stops, what happens to US stocks?
With fundamentals I like falling into place, both BTC and gold look like big winners in the coming months.
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Unfortunately if the natural selection we are talking about will go according to a virus which can mutate anytime I do not think we will have a better chance of surviving this selection that you are taking about This virus is nothing compared to what humanity went through (smallpox, plague, polio, to name but just a few) Regardless, as the overall opinion seems to be mostly anti antifragile, could anyone come up with anything which would however remotely count as antifragile, whatever that might be? Just to make sure that we go a little bit beyond a simple "I do not agree with this" Agreed re terrible viruses mankind has had to deal with over the millennia. * * * Re antifragile, I believe the concept of "antifragile" can be looked at as a matter of degree. That is, something might be more antifragile (in relation to the stock market say) or less so. In that sense, BTC is clearly antifragile, it tends to be relatively stronger as other assets are often weaker. Not a 100% (inverse) correlation, but BTC has held up well all things considered. There are no assets I can think of right now that is 100% inversely-correlated with other assets. N. N. Taleb himself has written that gold is antifragile. Gold is some 10% - 11% below its all-time high price (US$, ATH in 2011). Our (US) stock market would be some 19% below (ATH in February 2020). Gold is inversely correlated with stocks, though not 100%. BTC is down some 63% from its ATH in late 2017. Note that all three of these asset classes reached their ATH's in completely different years. Great thread, by the way. |
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this fucking sucks
as if this place wasn't a polluted, increasingly totalitarian hellhole to begin with
now you can't even hang out with your peeps
Well, at least BTC and Au are up. So it's not all bad. Many are worse off in so many ways. |
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- We need to be manufacturing much more of our pharmaceuticals (including the vital precursor chemicals) here. In US plants (Europe as well). It is awful that we have to put up with Chicom threats to cutting us off our pharma. I understand that many pharma companies strongly resist this (higher costs, they are not ready, etc.). Well TS. We should have started this process a long time ago.
- Similarly we need to start mining Rare Earth metals here in North America (Europe has some deposits as well). These are vital to new technologies and for alternative energy (inc. electric cars). We have to break down the barriers to opening rare earth mines, and to build the processing plants to turn the minerals into useful products (magnets, etc.).
- And we need to produce more electronic components here in North America and Europe. Trump has already suggested to Tim Cook that Apple building more plants here in the USA would be a good idea. We are very dependent on China in components as well.
Sure. Won't happen without government intervention or *lack* of government intervention. The key truth about capitalism is that it's a race to the bottom to produce items and a race to top to price items. If one company makes widgets in the us for $1.00 and someone else can make it for $.1 in Crapistan, then people will buy from Crapistan, especially if the other true costs (risks, shipping, etc) can be hidden. Lack of Govt intervention is not bailing these companies out when things go bad. That won't happen. Government intervention includes laws requiring things to be sourced locally, but then the people who can make short term profits in China will scream about evil socialism all day. Not as simple as you think. Plus even if you do things now people will forget about this in a year. You are likely correct. It would take a LOT of money and a lot of time. I am not naive when it comes to the above. It's also a complex set of problems with lots of moral hazards, as you hint at in your comment. It's a tough road ahead, whether we go down that path, or leave us open to future disasters. I can't pretend to know the future. What I sketch out above (and in the other thread) just seems to make sense that we undertake some smart rebuilding. |
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Too late. The world is addicted to cheap man-power and low interest rates.
It will be very hard to reverse the momentum. It could be done but it will be painful too. By painful, I don't mean what we saw last month. That was nothing.
Alas, I agree. It would be extremely expensive to undertake all of what I sketch out above. But, probably more expensive to NOT undertake them in the long-run.But, upon considering the last month or two, it is clear that we are in a new era that is NOT compatible with extreme Globalism (which cheap manpower is a major component of) if we value stability and security. And stability and security, IMO, are more important than the additional costs that will arrive... Energy is a huge problem. Low pharma manufacturing capacity is a huge problem. Dependence on China for rare earth metals is a huge problem. Many, many problems, that WILL cost huge amounts of money to resolve them. EDIT: You raise the topic of low interest rates. There is a case to be made for raising interest rates, that would encourage SAVINGS (important) and discourage frivolous spending and debt. |
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... Re marcus_of_augustus and other commentators about China, I think that we (USA, probably Europe as well) need to be thinking hard about the longer-term. And we need to be thinking fast as much of what I list below takes time, but we need to do these things for our national security and to be less dependent on Communist China. - We need to be manufacturing much more of our pharmaceuticals (including the vital precursor chemicals) here. In US plants (Europe as well). It is awful that we have to put up with Chicom threats to cutting us off our pharma. I understand that many pharma companies strongly resist this (higher costs, they are not ready, etc.). Well TS. We should have started this process a long time ago.
- Similarly we need to start mining Rare Earth metals here in North America (Europe has some deposits as well). These are vital to new technologies and for alternative energy (inc. electric cars). We have to break down the barriers to opening rare earth mines, and to build the processing plants to turn the minerals into useful products (magnets, etc.).
- And we need to produce more electronic components here in North America and Europe. Trump has already suggested to Tim Cook that Apple building more plants here in the USA would be a good idea. We are very dependent on China in components as well.
Yes, I understand that doing the above would drive costs of pharma and other products way up. OK, but look at what COVID-19 has done to us re driving up costs! The above suggestions would also create a lot of good jobs, many of them just the sort of STEM jobs that we apparently really need in addition to safeguarding our security. We are likely sliding into an economic depression. Rebuilding vital parts of our industrial base seems very important. And time's a-wasting. Let's get this started! (Similar comments about infrastructure, but that will be another post) Completely agree. Any country should be self-sufficient with all the essentials. Food, water, energy, medicine, now electronics too. But it's not about what makes sense. It's politics all the way down. Lefties don't WANT national self-sufficiency. It would just make it that much harder to get a one-world government. So many people told me my seastead was not really a seastead because I was not fully self-sufficient (food, water, energy, microprocessors, etc). I always wondered if that meant countries were not real countries because they were not fully self sufficient. A few hundred years ago not only countries, but families were self-sufficient. Food from the fields, water from the river, energy from a water-wheel. Could be that we have been regressing for a long time. I don't think that we have to be COMPLETELY self-sufficient, that is likely impossible anyway. But, it IS important that we have secure supplies of vital necessities available to us in N America and Europe. We can choose what is important to us, but my remarks show what seems to important to me. Completely agree with comments on lefties..... I started another thread in "Economics" to delve deeper into all of this (inc. initial comments on infrastructure), as I understand that this is W.O. and somewhat off-topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5237676.0 |
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... Each day it becomes clearer what is happening to the Western economies. Whether the bulk of the blame is on the Western World's high debts (probably) or China re foisting COVID-19 upon the world (likely) is not that important for the purposes of what we need to start doing NOW. It looks like we are sliding into an Economic Depression. And we are about to enter a Whole New World with its own "New Normal". I believe it is clear that some fundamental restructuring of our (American and European) economies is an urgent matter. But, this will be very expensive and take a long time to implement, and there will be much resistance to these policies. It has now become clear that the Globalist Model has major defects. There is some good in Globalism, but we now see that there is bad as well. We need to be thinking about how to make our country/countries stronger and less reliant on dictatorships like Communist China (and to a degree authoritarian Russia). The below seem to be fundamental things we need to begin ASAP: Bring Back Certain Manufacturing- We need to be manufacturing much more of our pharmaceuticals (including the vital precursor chemicals) here. In US plants (Europe as well). It is awful that we have to put up with Chicom threats to cutting us off our pharma. I understand that many pharma companies strongly resist this (higher costs, they are not ready, etc.). Well TS. We should have started this process a long time ago.
- Similarly we need to start mining Rare Earth metals here in North America (Europe has some deposits as well). These are vital to new technologies and for alternative energy (inc. electric cars). We have to break down the barriers to opening rare earth mines, and to build the processing plants to turn the minerals into useful products (magnets, etc.).
- And we need to produce more electronic components here in North America and Europe. Trump has already suggested to Tim Cook that Apple building more plants here in the USA would be a good idea. We are very dependent on China in components as well.
Yes, I understand that doing the above would drive costs of pharma and other products way up. OK, but look at what COVID-19 has done to us re driving up costs! The above suggestions would also create a lot of good jobs, many of them just the sort of STEM jobs that we apparently really need in addition to safeguarding our security. Rebuilding vital parts of our industrial base seems very important. And time's a-wasting. Let's get this started! Build InfrastructureFor years (decades) we have been hearing all about the decline of our basic infrastructure. Yes, it's a real problem (set of large problems), I have traveled enough to see how some of our infrastructure is in bad shape compared to what I see from time-to-time overseas. Infrastructure is expensive! Yes, I understand, also infrastructure projects are often huge magnets for fraud, cost overruns, poor workmanship, etc. Nonetheless, properly functioning countries need to have properly functioning infrastructure. I list out some (I make no prettense that the below is all-inclusive), but these DO seem to be necessary to get done. And get started ASAP. - Strengthen the electrical grid. Our rickety grid is unacceptable. It is also quite vulnerable to a variety of attacks by hostile enemies...
- Rebuild our railroads, ports and highways. Probably our airports as well, although air travel may be declining for the next couple of years...
- Water & sewage systems.
- Cybersecurity, for obvious reasons.
- Energy: fossil fuels (how about using more natural gas?), alternative energies, conservation, etc.
- A properly functioning public health system, perhaps redoing the CDC and working with Europe to reform the WHO.
There are other items I'm sure I have missed. * * * I assure you that I am not naive as to the very high costs of doing the above. And the risks of massive waste. But, these are important things that we must do, both for national security and for strengthening our economies -- making us more resistant and resilient to further DISASTERS that likely await us in the coming years. They would create good jobs, and leave us better prepared for the future. "The key is not predicting the future, but to be prepared for it" -- Pericles (500 BC) |
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... Re marcus_of_augustus and other commentators about China, I think that we (USA, probably Europe as well) need to be thinking hard about the longer-term. And we need to be thinking fast as much of what I list below takes time, but we need to do these things for our national security and to be less dependent on Communist China. - We need to be manufacturing much more of our pharmaceuticals (including the vital precursor chemicals) here. In US plants (Europe as well). It is awful that we have to put up with Chicom threats to cutting us off our pharma. I understand that many pharma companies strongly resist this (higher costs, they are not ready, etc.). Well TS. We should have started this process a long time ago.
- Similarly we need to start mining Rare Earth metals here in North America (Europe has some deposits as well). These are vital to new technologies and for alternative energy (inc. electric cars). We have to break down the barriers to opening rare earth mines, and to build the processing plants to turn the minerals into useful products (magnets, etc.).
- And we need to produce more electronic components here in North America and Europe. Trump has already suggested to Tim Cook that Apple building more plants here in the USA would be a good idea. We are very dependent on China in components as well.
Yes, I understand that doing the above would drive costs of pharma and other products way up. OK, but look at what COVID-19 has done to us re driving up costs! The above suggestions would also create a lot of good jobs, many of them just the sort of STEM jobs that we apparently really need in addition to safeguarding our security. We are likely sliding into an economic depression. Rebuilding vital parts of our industrial base seems very important. And time's a-wasting. Let's get this started! (Similar comments about infrastructure, but that will be another post) |
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OROBTC today reports:
-- pandemonium at DC and Miami grocery stores, consider stocking up now
-- universities all over the place shutting down, moving classes to the 'Net if they can
-- two nephews (US citizens) stuck in Europe, one with MexBeerVirus
-- Peru's MexBeerVirus first death
-- observing BTC @ $4993
Tomorrow I will drop by a LCS to see if there are precious metals left.
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I want to touch on supply chain disruption. That lunar new year holiday is a real thing. It is well known in the West that China basically shuts down for two weeks this time of year, so enterprises will have planned ahead and stocked up on critical parts ahead of time, therefore we will be somewhat insulated from supply chain shocks until (the end of the holiday + the proverbial slow boat shipping time). It is expensive to actually shutter and restart production lines so manufacturers will first slow production to husband rare parts while allowing employees to take elective time off and performing maintenance tasks on parts of their line.
However, over the next month or so, the boats will fail to arrive and the parts will run out.
something something
profit?
We (our import company in Peru) still have not heard anything back from our Chinese ball bearing suppliers. China now supplies us with some 25% ($-value) of our items. We started asking them a few days ago, and none of the three have answered. We will likely have to go with more Korean product, but many of our customers there in Peru are now addicted to low prices. Yet we have customers who buy *special pieces* (items that ONLY Chinese plants make), they may be screwed when inventories in Peru run out. New metal bearings are not the kind of product that is easy to just "start making" either, as they are precision parts made of special steel. If this whole Covid-19 gets worse, there are many supply chains that will be disrupted, with high (but hard to quantify) costs. |
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I am ready. I literally can't wait. I feel like a pupa inside her cocoon ready spring out and spread wings. Merited for excellent info and comments. I would avoid diamonds as a longer-term HODL, as the technology for manufacturing them is getting better (ie, it is getting easier for synthetic diamonds to pass for natural ones), also there is a tight cartel that controls prices, rumors abound that there are massive quantities of diamonds currently withheld from the marketplace. I like the fact that platinum has a *low* S:F. That's an indicator of relative scarcity of stock vs. use. Hey, it's a little bit more diversification. Though you can't go wrong with (some, a little) silver if you don't like Pt for whatever reason. Silver is BULKY though. |
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This may be as good a time as any to track Hunan Coronavirus stats and some financial investment prices. In time maybe there would be correlations we could look at as the virus spreads. Latest numbers I have at hand:
Hunan Corona Virus cases: 12,204 (posted by VB1001 above)
Hunan Corona Virus deaths: 259 " " "
Bistamp BTC price: $9380
Kitco gold price: $1589
DJIA (Dow): 28,256
(edited)
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... I like the the Nano Ledger S, especially as it has fewer apparent attack vectors than the X. I also like the Trezor model T. I have used both of those as well as other HW wallets from each supplier in the past, so I feel that both suppliers are reliable, but order directly from them if possible. Both of the above have long histories with members here. To prevent attacks, hide them well. * * * The Card Wallet may be of interest, I am thinking of getting one. It's made in Austria and looks secure: https://www.cardwallet.com/en/home/ |
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Breaking News:U.S. Congress proposes that Crypto transactions below $200 shall be free from taxes!.139 G.Gain from disposition of virtual currency
(a)In general
Gross income of an individual shall not include gain, by reason of changes in exchange rates, from the disposition of virtual currency in a personal transaction (as such term is defined in section 988(e)). The preceding sentence shall not apply if the gain which would otherwise be recognized on the transaction exceeds $200.
(b)Virtual currency
For purposes of this section, the term virtual currency means a digital representation of value that is used as a medium of exchange and is not otherwise currency under section 988. pdf That would be great if that goes through. I have made a few small purchases that have been annoying to keep track of (esp. cost basis for coins, I use FIFO accounting). The larger purchases (gold) I kept careful track of because they were larger transactions. Tiny purchases with BTC should be tax-free, the man-hours of doing the accounting are maddening. |
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bitserve
I should have written "some" BTC hodlers. Thank you for pointing out that many BTC-ers do not hate gold.
realr0ach writes what he writes because (I imagine) his experiences with BTC have not been good, and he no longer wants to speculate/invest in it. Or he has changed his view due to circumstances. Still he does like to poke BTC-ers in the eye with a stick (LOL).
Whatever, it's all good. Need all types.
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6.2% seems way too high a percentage of Americans who own Bitcoin (to me).
Owning BTC requires a certain reasonable minimum of computer competence as well as the gumption to dive into a fairly complex (and somewhat risky) financial arena. And it is not easy enough for the masses to get and use. Nor are there enough merchants who accept payment in BTC (though you can buy gold from at least four precious metals suppliers).
I only know TWO people personally who have BTC. Maybe because I am older than most here that my view is skewed, but 1/16 (~6%) of the population of the USA owning BTC seems too high a number.
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