You are kinda right, a lot of the time we have to deal with ambiguity like that. Sometimes though, we are gifted clear cut counts that arent really debatable. I wish I could say with confidence exactly what is the count, but I cant. sorry!

No cant be sure of the bottom yet. Will see when we get there.

Seems to be the case. nice to see some clarity. This count reduces the probability of hypothetical III but still bullish medium term (probably)




If we reach 4000 any time soon, we are in wave III  . otherwise I need to see form so I cant be more precise. ideally we dont need to know, just latch on long lower and look for the top.

Having said that my short term bias is bearish, this fiver has the potential to escalate into wave V.

Once again Ill issue a word of warning about chasing the price here as I think we might have just thrusted out of a triangle. Triangles are terminal moves and are followed by reversals of one higher fractal.

Having said that, the price action has been so strong and bullish that I am eagerly looking for evidence of the beginning of a III wave. Holders hold until we have a clean medium term reversal signal. Frankly, at this stage the evidence that wave III has begun would likely mean buying at a much higher level than we are at now. I hope everyone has at least some bitcoins in cold storage at this point. In the case of wave III, (which I cant say with any confidence is likely) we could be at cerca 4000 yuan in about a week. I am always 100% in bitcoin at this point, although technically sometimes I do short with limited risk.

If this were a genuine article, a wise person would read this before proceeding to buy as many bitcoin as he/she could. I have a feeling this is not a genuine article though, its just too perfect. you think I should buy apple stocks at the top, and sell bitcoin at the bottom? You think bitcoin is dead because sentiment is low? I dont believe anybody could be so fooled by mainstream media.

What a shame that you could have done a bit better, although it seems like the short term top has finally come and we should have a nice buy signal after this coming correction.

For the short term it is very unlikely imo that we will see no correction, but for the medium term it is possible. I dont think it is worth betting on the moon at this stage purely from a risk reward ratio, as risk there evidently is.

The medium term picture is still fairly ambiguous so we just need to manage our risk well and wait for more evidence.

Right now it seems we are at a medium term juncture. this could be a short term top before a fair amount of range-bound action or a fairly deep correction.

medium term is still fairly promising for more up but different counts may take very different paths and risk is fairly high.




liquidity is better in china and so charts are more accurate. velly high qwality  


3000 is a fair target depending on the underlying count, ideally we will soon have more evidence regarding this. I think that one way or the other 2500 is a fair target medium term whatever count. A retest of 3000 yuan is still valid.

lol obviously im trolling the troll..... frequent day trading is a sure way to lose no matter what system you use.

Well you cant give up now, you have to buy more to off-set the losses. Is your son good at working around the house? hire him out to earn some money so you can buy some more bitcoin. Not a good move selling his bike, he could have got a paper delivery job with that. You will also need to do some high frequency day trading to make back what you have lost, and you'll have to use 20x leverage at this rate.

While there has been some down side volatility the medium term base is still in tact and valid. It not a good idea to change position over such small movements. It does'nt seem to me like it has legs to the downside but at this point in time we have to be alert just in case.

Here is illustrated the most probable count.

Here I am posting a slightly tuned current count and current illustration of breakout. Like Ryan has suggested, we could be heading up to retest 3000yuan to complete a double zigzag. I believe that if we test this level again then we could also likely be in wave III, but either count will be evident at the time.

It is important to note that the down swing from 3000yuan was very much corrective in behaviour in comparison to the rally to 3000 yuan. This is why test of 3000 is not unlikely even in the case of wave V to come ($275 retest) and that wave V has probably not yet begun in that case.

If we are beginning wave V to test $275, then a 50% correction is likely of the swing from 3000 yuan, or about 2500 yuan.

This breakout could be considered a buy signal for the medium term trader but I prefer only to buy the bottom and dips. If we form a medium term up trend here there will likely be buy opportunities along the way.

Markets do not and cannot move in a straight line. This correction has been natural and healthy. If bitcoin was really a ponzi scheme, the price would be much lower right now, $50 and less, but the current price is very promising.

http://www.coindesk.com/huobis-bitvc-takes-trader-profit-cover-1-million-loss/

Huobi was dumping apparently. Some clever bastard opened a position of 40million cny at the price of 3000 cny and was margin called at 2800. He obviously wasnt reading this thread. Huobi lost net 2500btc as a result of forced liquidation of his position. The average liquidation price was 2378yuan. they must have dumped all the way to the bottom.

The medium picture and the short term picture agree that this is bottom territory. If you want more confirmation just wait. dont have to buy now!

Fractals are telling us that we have bottomed over the powerful number of 2100. Its risky buying here but Risk Reward is second to none if your stop is just under 2100.

I saw something interesting when the price fell yesterday. It was very sudden after contracting liquidity. This is characteristic of a triangle thrust, and sure enough in retrospect this is a very convincing triangle count that displays some very exact internal fib proportions. I am going to count this as a triangle and an impulsive thrust downwards. 

Wave (iv) of the thrust is also a triangle as wave iv's often are, and is currently breaking down into the 2180 region.

As we have seen in the past days triangles are a reliable indicator that we are approaching a reversal, and looking at the fractals, we could be be very near a medium term reversal point that will define an ABC. This ABC could be a very significant turning point, it could be a wave II preceding III, but it it will at least precede a correction of the fall from 3000 to 2150, probably at the very least back to 2400.

Now is not the time to buy, but here, in the 2100's and the low 2200s is the place to buy when we get clear confirmation that a bottom is in. We could be here for days so best not to jump the gun.


 Bumping this to new page

Joe, I have more than one long term count. It is not entirely clear what has happened or what will follow.

I saw something interesting when the price fell yesterday. It was very sudden after contracting liquidity. This is characteristic of a triangle thrust, and sure enough in retrospect this is a very convincing triangle count that displays some very exact internal fib proportions. I am going to count this as a triangle and an impulsive thrust downwards. 

Wave (iv) of the thrust is also a triangle as wave iv's often are, and is currently breaking down into the 2180 region.

As we have seen in the past days triangles are a reliable indicator that we are approaching a reversal, and looking at the fractals, we could be be very near a medium term reversal point that will define an ABC. This ABC could be a very significant turning point, it could be a wave II preceding III, but it it will at least precede a correction of the fall from 3000 to 2150, probably at the very least back to 2400.

Now is not the time to buy, but here, in the 2100's and the low 2200s is the place to buy when we get clear confirmation that a bottom is in. We could be here for days so best not to jump the gun.

By my current count under 2200 is a good place to take short profits and that we can expect a bit more time in this area, but its seems to me that near by this level will offer a medium term buy signal in the coming days. Ill explain why I think this later.

Its kind of a misnomer to say a failed triangle breakout because always, a triangle that meets the criteria of the EW principle is a terminal move of one higher degree fractal. I think it is the only count I have used on this thread that has never failed me. Triangles come after the momentum of a move, or the deceleration stage. they are in between the hammer and the anvil you could say and tend to swiftly hit the ceiling or bottom and reverse after they break out.