Critical Levels - EW analysis

[Joe200]

I don't know EW at all.

Do you have a long-term wave count going back to the beginning?

The reason I ask is that there have been 4 crashes so far: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=676333.0 . I am curious to look at these crashes from an EW point of view.

[chessnut]

I saw something interesting when the price fell yesterday. It was very sudden after contracting liquidity. This is characteristic of a triangle thrust, and sure enough in retrospect this is a very convincing triangle count that displays some very exact internal fib proportions. I am going to count this as a triangle and an impulsive thrust downwards. 

Wave (iv) of the thrust is also a triangle as wave iv's often are, and is currently breaking down into the 2180 region.

As we have seen in the past days triangles are a reliable indicator that we are approaching a reversal, and looking at the fractals, we could be be very near a medium term reversal point that will define an ABC. This ABC could be a very significant turning point, it could be a wave II preceding III, but it it will at least precede a correction of the fall from 3000 to 2150, probably at the very least back to 2400.

Now is not the time to buy, but here, in the 2100's and the low 2200s is the place to buy when we get clear confirmation that a bottom is in. We could be here for days so best not to jump the gun.


 Bumping this to new page

Joe, I have more than one long term count. It is not entirely clear what has happened or what will follow.

[Afrikoin]

Looking at the 12 hour, we are possibly in a range bound pattern

[RyNinDaCleM]

Looking at the 12 hour, we are possibly in a range bound pattern

:cough: Triple zig-zag :cough:

[watuba]

:cough: Triple zig-zag :cough:

What does the triple zig-zag signify in this case Ryan?

[RyNinDaCleM]

:cough: Triple zig-zag :cough:

What does the triple zig-zag signify in this case Ryan?

Retest and possible break of the recent highs.
I really only say that because the decline since the 454 top isn't exactly impulsive. It can be forced, but ABC (in this case WXY) is more fitting, and since the move off the $275 bottom wasn't impulsive either, we are still in a corrective pattern. The top end of such a zig-zag still would be below $550 and below $500 being very likely.




Of course this is only if this decline can't pick up steam soon to make proper impulses out of the waves that are present. With so much overlap, it definitely appears more corrective now, but that can change with a bit of extending/elongating of the coming waves which would turn this overlapping mess of waves into nested sub-waves of a larger impulse.

[watuba]

Retest and possible break of the recent highs.
I really only say that because the decline since the 454 top isn't exactly impulsive. It can be forced, but ABC (in this case WXY) is more fitting, and since the move off the $275 bottom wasn't impulsive either, we are still in a corrective pattern. The top end of such a zig-zag still would be below $550 and below $500 being very likely.

Of course this is only if this decline can't pick up steam soon to make proper impulses out of the waves that are present. With so much overlap, it definitely appears more corrective now, but that can change with a bit of extending/elongating of the coming waves which would turn this overlapping mess of waves into nested sub-waves of a larger impulse.

Nice, learned a lot from this.  Thanks

[chessnut]

Fractals are telling us that we have bottomed over the powerful number of 2100. Its risky buying here but Risk Reward is second to none if your stop is just under 2100.

[Phillis]

Fractals are telling us that we have bottomed over the powerful number of 2100. Its risky buying here but Risk Reward is second to none if your stop is just under 2100.

that was a very even little bounce on OkCoin at exactly 2100.

[podyx]

Fractals are telling us that we have bottomed over the powerful number of 2100. Its risky buying here but Risk Reward is second to none if your stop is just under 2100.

Couldn't this just be a rebound and we will go further down?

Or you put more weight to it being a bottom?

[chessnut]

Fractals are telling us that we have bottomed over the powerful number of 2100. Its risky buying here but Risk Reward is second to none if your stop is just under 2100.

Couldn't this just be a rebound and we will go further down?

Or you put more weight to it being a bottom?

The medium picture and the short term picture agree that this is bottom territory. If you want more confirmation just wait. dont have to buy now!

[podyx]

Fractals are telling us that we have bottomed over the powerful number of 2100. Its risky buying here but Risk Reward is second to none if your stop is just under 2100.

Couldn't this just be a rebound and we will go further down?

Or you put more weight to it being a bottom?

The medium picture and the short term picture agree that this is bottom territory. If you want more confirmation just wait. dont have to buy now!

What about longterm?? Need more price action??

[Globb0]

Its also the verge of the weekend now

[Spink]

Looking at the 12 hour, we are possibly in a range bound pattern

Why you look at Bitstamp? China markets is more stable because of higher volume, and if we take a closer look on october's bottom (30m timescale, Stamp or BFX), so we see, that we had 275 only for 1.5 hour, while Huobi had average bottom at 1880 for at least 12 hours. And according to the line through these real bottoms, price could go to 2050's zone.

off: sorry for big pictures. anybody know how to use spoiler tag or cut tag here?

[SkyValeey]

           ...........

I think this is too bullish;/
Remember that was chinese pump n dump. It hurt bitcoin chart badly.

[var53]

           ...........

I think this is too bullish;/
Remember that was chinese pump n dump. It hurt bitcoin chart badly.

The action over the last few days reminds me of the bearwhale dumping. IMO someone like the bearwhale can change everything in a day. All the normal rules were broken on the day he dumped.

[chessnut]

           ...........

.................

The action over the last few days reminds me of the bearwhale dumping. IMO someone like the bearwhale can change everything in a day. All the normal rules were broken on the day he dumped.

http://www.coindesk.com/huobis-bitvc-takes-trader-profit-cover-1-million-loss/

Huobi was dumping apparently. Some clever bastard opened a position of 40million cny at the price of 3000 cny and was margin called at 2800. He obviously wasnt reading this thread. Huobi lost net 2500btc as a result of forced liquidation of his position. The average liquidation price was 2378yuan. they must have dumped all the way to the bottom.

[coinableS]

           ...........

.................

The action over the last few days reminds me of the bearwhale dumping. IMO someone like the bearwhale can change everything in a day. All the normal rules were broken on the day he dumped.

http://www.coindesk.com/huobis-bitvc-takes-trader-profit-cover-1-million-loss/

Huobi was dumping apparently. Some clever bastard opened a position of 40million cny at the price of 3000 cny and was margin called at 2800. He obviously wasnt reading this thread. Huobi lost net 2500btc as a result of forced liquidation of his position. The average liquidation price was 2378yuan. they must have dumped all the way to the bottom.

Am I the only astonished that ONE trader can cause such a thing to happen?  If one trader can do this Huobi really needs to re-think their 20x futures product.

[watuba]

Am I the only astonished that ONE trader can cause such a thing to happen?  If one trader can do this Huobi really needs to re-think their 20x futures product.

ONE measly $6.5 million trade

[chessnut]

Here I am posting a slightly tuned current count and current illustration of breakout. Like Ryan has suggested, we could be heading up to retest 3000yuan to complete a double zigzag. I believe that if we test this level again then we could also likely be in wave III, but either count will be evident at the time.

It is important to note that the down swing from 3000yuan was very much corrective in behaviour in comparison to the rally to 3000 yuan. This is why test of 3000 is not unlikely even in the case of wave V to come ($275 retest) and that wave V has probably not yet begun in that case.

If we are beginning wave V to test $275, then a 50% correction is likely of the swing from 3000 yuan, or about 2500 yuan.

This breakout could be considered a buy signal for the medium term trader but I prefer only to buy the bottom and dips. If we form a medium term up trend here there will likely be buy opportunities along the way.